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Forecast Kickers
8/22/01
Email Tim
:: Articles
 

We've assigned numerous writers to cover every player we ranked so you'll get multiple opinions of 150 players. We've also tallied up the average projections and rankings for each position as well.

One of the best tools is the fantasy values that each player has assigned so you'll have a great idea of how big the drop-offs are at each position.

FantasyRef is sponsoring the whole project.

The Writers involved in the FantasyRef Forecast will be:
We have had such a great response that we at Forecast are creating a new email update. It will include our latest views on players as the preseason and season rolls on. It is a great way to stay updated on the fantasy players as you creep closer to your draft. You can sign up for it at: Forecast Email

We will rank the players in the following system:
  • Every 10 yards rushing or receiving is worth one fantasy point
  • Every 20 passing yards is worth one fantasy point
  • Every rushing or receiving touchdown is worth six fantasy points
  • Every passing touchdown is worth six fantasy points
  • Every extra point is worth one fantasy point
  • Every field goal is worth three fantasy points
1. M A T T  S T O V E R:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
41 41 34 37 143

Bond's Scouting Report
Stover and his 2000 fantasy owners should send a note of thanks to Tony Banks whose ineptitude at quarterback, combined with a fabulous defense, made for many field goal attempts. The question is will he be able to repeat? When Trent Dilfer and Jamal Lewis were added to the fold later in the season, Stover's attempts thinned out. We would've expected the same to happen this season with Elvis Grbac in charge but then Jamal Lewis limped off the field and the Baltimore offense is shaky once again. It wouldn't be shocking if the offense staggers some and that could be to Stover's benefit. The best defense of Stover is that the Baltimore defense won't allow many points meaning a field goal is always welcome. His biggest problem will be the weather in November and December. And the weather in almost all of his divisional opponents. Stover will go early, as we are wont to take kickers that succeeded the previous season. It generally doesn't prove to be an effective strategy.

Bellinger's Scouting Report
Stover was a big fantasy player among kickers last season largely because the Raven's offense stunk out the joint week in, week out. The question is, with the improvements on offense, will Stover still get enough chances? Stover had career highs in attempts, FGs made and points and his 90 per cent success rate was the second best of his career. Even though, Stover still has a career 81 per cent accuracy andranks third among kickers with 130+ attempts. The Baltimore offense should move the ball enough to keep Stover among the elite kickers in fantasy football rankings.

Fantasy Rating: 99.0

2. M I K E  V A N D E R J A G T:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
44 44 30 33 134

Ludwig's Scouting Report
Some would say Vanderjagt is cocky. Some would say Vanderjagt is confident. My opinion is Vanderjagt is just good. It doesn't hurt that he has an offense with Manning, James and Harrison to set him up either. Vanderjagt has hit 89 percent of his field goals (and all of his extra points) over his three-year career. Even more impressive is he has hit seven out of twelve field goals attempted from 50 or more yards. With the Colt's explosive offense, Vanderjagt should get plenty of opportunities to put up points. A strong leg, great accuracy and an offense that will score a lot. What more could a fantasy owner want from a kicker?

Bond's Scouting Report
Vanderjagt has what everyone assumes they should look for in a kicker. He has a big leg, a team that moves the ball down the field, and he kicks in a dome. Each year he is assured of eight games where the weather isn't a factor and that is huge for attempting and making field goals. The bad news for Vanderjagt is the Colts defense. The porous defense forces the Colts to chose touchdowns over field goals. That can be a hindrance to a kicker, especially one that will be taken in the top-3. We expect him to be a top-10 kicker but if the defense doesn't come through, he may be closer to 10 than to the top.

Fantasy Rating: 96.0

3. J A S O N  E L A M:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
55 55 23 27 124

Ludwig's Scouting Report
Elam will always be a top ten kicker with the Denver offense being as explosive as it is. He should be good for 50+ extra points. This will always give him a head start in most fantasy leagues. Elam has also averaged 26 field goals and 122 total points for every 16 games he has played in his career. This is stellar for a kicker. This is good enough for a top five fantasy ranking in most years. Elam also has a tremendous leg for those of you in fantasy leagues with long distance scoring. In five of Elam's eight seasons, he has kicked three or more field goals of more than fifty yards long. The only down side for Elam is Denver's offense is so good that one might worry about Elam not getting enough field goal opportunities. Personally, I would not worry too much though because Elam will score his share of points.

Gono's Scouting Report
Throughout the '90s, Elam has been one of the first few kickers selected in almost every draft. Well, now it seems he's drifted back to the pack a little bit, as has Mike Hollis. There are a number of decent kickers that all have a shot at being the first kicker selected, depending on an owner's preference. Between Elam, Mike Vanderjagt, Ryan Longwell, Matt Stover and Jeff Wilkins, there doesn't seem to be much difference. Elam kicks in the high altitude which allows him to shoot from farther out. And Denver certainly has a potent offense which should give him ample opportunities, even if he only succeeds 75% again as he did last year.

Fantasy Rating: 93.0

4. R Y A N  L O N G W E L L:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
36 36 29 34 123

Lackner's Scouting Report
Simply put, Longwell is a safe and quality kicker to have on your fantasy squad. He is coming off a banner year in which he converted 35 of 39 FG opportunities and led all NFC kickers with 131 points scored. And that is with him kicking in the Arctic conditions of Lambeau Field. You could honestly do a lot worse than to pencil Ryan Longwell in as your starting fantasy kicker.

Agostini's Scouting Report
Longwell used last season to his fullest advantage. It was the last year in his contract and was also the year that he became the most accurate kicker in NFL history. Quite a feat considering the conditions facing a kicker at Lambeau Field late into the season. With a new 5 year $7.5 million contract under his belt, Longwell remains one of the premier fantasy kickers who should benefit from a healthier Brett Favre.

Fantasy Rating: 92.5

5. M A R T I N  G R A M A T I C A:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
44 44 25 29 119

Gono's Scouting Report

Battlestar Gramatica is one of best kickers in the league from beyond the 33 yard line. He's popped 73% of them successfully in the last two years. He only has eight missed field goals in the last two years from 49 yards and closer. The Bucs offense should venture closer in again this year, allowing him a) more FG opportunities, and b) more PAT points.

Ludwig's Scouting Report
Martin Gramatica was expected to be a great kicker after being drafted 80th overall in the 1999 NFL draft. He has lived up to his billing. He has been Mr. Consistency. He hit 27 field goals in his rookie year and hit 28 field goals last season. Gramatica has hit 83.3 percent of his field goal attempts in his short two-year career. He hit a nice 72% on his 50+ yard field goals. Fantasy kickers are not all about accuracy or range though. Fantasy kickers are about opportunities. Tampa Bay has finally become an offense that makes Gramatica a good fantasy point producer. In 2000, Tampa Bay scored 42 touchdowns. This was up from only 25 in the 1999 season. The addition of Brad Johnson should keep Gramatica's extra point attempts up in the 40 range. Gramatica should be top five kicker once again.

Fantasy Rating: 91.5

6. J E F F  W I L K I N S:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
54 55 21 24 117

Cannon's Scouting Report
There are plenty of strong fantasy kickers out there. Wilkins is certainly one of them.. and a favorite here. Wilkins was the only kicker who was perfect (17-17) last year. Despite him missing 5 games with a quad injury, ya gotta target him based on the Rams offense. Wilkins should be a top scorer in a sport that rewards his skills.

Bond's Scouting Report
Wilkins is almost a carbon copy of Vanderjagt without the big leg and with a recent history of injuries. We expect that the Rams will score but at the same time won't stop the opposition, either. The new players on defense should help but a total overhaul takes time to gel and the loss of Grant Wistrom is going to hurt the defensive line play. Expect the season he had last year but, hopefully without the injuries. He is a top-10 kicker but one with the possibility of imitating Mike Cofer.

Fantasy Rating: 91.0

7. M I K E  H O L L I S:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
41 41 25 30 116

Bellinger's Scouting Report
Hollis has been one of the steadier kickers on the fantasy landscape over the past few years. Despite missing four games last season due to an ailing back, Hollis managed to kick for a career best 92% accuracy missing on only 2 of 26 kicks, including 3 or 3 outside 50 yards, so his leg is still as strong as ever. As long as Hollis stays healthy and the Jags offense stays in one piece, Hollis will be assured of a place among the top 5 kickers in the NFL.

Ludwig's Scouting Report
Mike Hollis could be a nice draft day steal. Hollis was only the 15th ranked fantasy kicker for the 2000 season. This will cause Hollis to drop in drafts. Hollis, however, was also the number one fantasy kicker in fantasy points per game. Mike Hollis missed four games due to an injury last season. Hollis will score fantasy points. Whether it is through extra points or field goals, he will score fantasy points. In the last eight games of 2000, Hollis kicked 12 field goals and 25 extra points for a total of 61 points. In the last four years, Hollis has averaged 27 field goals and 118 points per season. With Mark Brunell, Fred Taylor, Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell, I do not see this changing at all. My advice is to hold off taking a kicker and grab Hollis in the later rounds

Fantasy Rating: 90.5

8. J O E  N E D N E Y:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
35 35 27 32 116

Lackner's Scouting Report
Nedney takes over for Al Del Greco in Tennessee. He has large shoes to fill, since Del Greco was once heralded as the Greatest Player of All Time (remember those commercials a few years ago?). Seriously, if Del Greco hadn't choked down the stretch, the Titans would most likely have beaten the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs. Nedney did a nice job splitting time between Carolina and Denver last season. He made good on 34 of 38 FGs and scored a total of 126 points. Not too shabby. With the Titans' offense playing very conservatively and the defense providing the offense with excellent field position, I think Nedney will have his opportunities. If your strategy is to load up on skill position players and to wait on taking a kicker, Nedney could be your man late in the draft.

Gono's Scouting Report
Another team cutting a long-time veteran (Del Greco), the Titans look to Nedney to repeat what for him was a career year between Denver and Carolina in 2000. With almost 90% accuracy, Nedney did most of the scoring for the red-zone anemic Panthers last year with 17 field goals from 29 yards and in. He won't have those kinds of opportunities with Tennessee, but he'll make up for it with more drives in field goal distance and more PATs (Del Greco had 14 more PATs last year).

Fantasy Rating: 90.5

9. O L I N D O  M A R E:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
34 34 27 30 115

Cannon's Scouting Report
He seems to get better with experience. Should Lamar Smith not be able to find red zone another 16 times, Mare returns as a fantasy spotlight kicker. MIA signed him to a positive 6 year, $12M contract. You might consider following their lead.

Agostini's Scouting Report
Don't be scared off by the fact that Mare made eleven less field goals last season then in 1999. Be excited that he is one of the league's most accurate kickers who ranked 5th last season. Miami's outstanding defense combined with their mediocre offense leaves Mare as in integral part of the offense. Look for him to remain a top-flight fantasy option.

Fantasy Rating: 90.0

10. S E B A S T I A N  J A N I K O W S K I:
EP MADE EP ATT FG MADE FG ATT FF PTS
45 45 23 31 114

Agostini's Scouting Report
With last season's rookie start behind, where Janikowski went 22/32, hopes are high that his added maturity will lead to greater success. Believe it or not, the 252 lb. Kicker has come to camp in great shape as he has lost 14 lbs. from last season. When drafting kickers, remember that the improving Janikowski is on a very good Raiders team and will be given many opportunities from 40+ yards out. Very appealing if your league rewards for distance.

Bellinger's Scouting Report
Janikowski is a poster boy for the type of player the Raider Nation seeks out enjoying his polish vodka and getting caught on the wrong side of the law. The Raiders got Janikowski for his strong leg totally ignoring his off the field antics although Janikowski was far more accurate inside 40 yards hitting on 13 of 14 while converting on just 9 of 18 outside the 40. Still as long as the Raiders powerful offense can keep pushing the ball upfield, Janikowski will continue to make fantasy owners happy, at least those who have him on their team.

Fantasy Rating: 89.5

I hope you enjoyed the top ten and the rest of the kickers can be found at Fantasy Forecast Kickers.

:: comments to tim ludwig



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