
Your Weekly Guide to Fantasy Lineups
10/31/03
Email Joseph
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Id like to start off by thanking everyone who participated
in the Name My Column promotion last week. We got
a lot of good responses and
um
some not-so-good ones.
Unfortunately, the boss and I are having a hard time deciding
on a winner. We just dont think any submission really nailed
this piece on the head. The format is probably to blame (my fault)
but were gonna need something more to go on. That means
we run it back, people. Youve got one more week to come
up with something brilliant, something knock-our-socks-off, something
that will permanently grace these pages. Submit
all suggestions to me and I promise (I mean it this time)
that well choose a winner for the Week 10 column. While
youre brainstorming, here are this weeks must start,
should start, and dont start players.
Must Start: The Top 10
1. Peyton Manning @ MIA - Air
McNair takes a breather this week so Peyton inherits the top spot.
He might just keep it, too, if he puts up big numbers against
a tough Miami D. The Fish are yielding heaps of yardage through
the air but very few touchdowns (four in seven games).
2. Daunte Culpepper vs. GB -
He finally threw an interception last week (actually, two of them)
but everyone's entitled to a clunker now and then. Besides, he
still threw for almost 250 yards and a couple scores. If he doesn't
match those numbers against a questionable Packers secondary,
you might have cause for concern. That's a roundabout way of saying
"rest easy."
3. Marc Bulger @ SF - The Greatest
Show on Turf is lethal once again and this guy is the reason why.
We expect more than one touch when he throws for 375 bills but
who's complaining (other than TD-only folks)? The Niners won't
contain him any better than they did in Week 2, when he passed
for 236 yards and two TDs.
4. Brett Favre @ MIN - Why isn't
his consecutive starts streak compared to Ripken's more often?
I don't remember Cal Jr. getting decked by 300-lb. headhunters
on a regular basis. He makes it 181 straight Sunday night in a
place he'd just as soon never visit again (the Metrodump). Expect
a loss and some mistakes but also a bushel of yards and at least
two scores.
5. Brad Johnson vs. NO - The
Saints are actually pretty decent vs. the pass (187.1 yards/game)
but don't force many turnovers (only seven so far). Not that Johnson,
the consummate pro, commits many. He'll put up a fair amount of
yards and a couple scores at Raymond James.
6. Jon Kitna @ ARI - The Cards
are becoming a tough out at home and the Bengals are on a roll.
In related news, denizens of Hell are bracing for an unusually
frigid winter. If you had the nerve to start Central Washington's
finest last week (240 yards and two TD tosses), congrats. Show
me what you're really made of and do it again.
7. Matt Hasselbeck vs. PIT -
The shackles were finally removed in Cincy and Hasselbeck exploded
to the tune of 347 yards and three scores. Unfortunately, he also
threw three picks. Expect more of the former and less of the latter
if the pathologically conservative Holmgren doesn't rein the kid
in versus an atrocious Steelers secondary.
8. Kerry Collins @ NYJ - I never
said he wasn't capable. I just didn't expect him to go off against
the Vikes in a historically inhospitable stadium. The Meadowlands
can be equally inhospitable
especially for the home teams
when they stink the joint up. Be wary of a letdown in Gotham as
the Jets defend the pass (159.5 yds/game) much better than they
do the run (153.0).
9. Tom Brady @ DEN - Though
not having a great year, Brady has outperformed such luminaries
as Gannon, Bledsoe, and Maddox. He faces a Denver secondary on
Monday night that is pretty efficient but not opportunistic. Expect
a decent game out of him and a touchdown pass or two.
10. Tommy Maddox @ SEA - Try
as I might, I can't bring myself to give up on him. He has the
arm, the weapons, and the motivation (Cowher's right boot). If
he doesn't make something happen against a slightly overrated
'Hawks secondary, he may be on the way out. I have a feeling he
will make something happen.
Grab A Helmet:
Donovan McNabb @ ATL - How far has he fallen? Dan Reeves replaced
his entire secondary for this tilt and I STILL can't recommend
Don without reservations. If ever he was gonna turn the ship around,
it will happen in the Georgia Dome. He might even find one of
his bum receivers open in the endzone.
Chad Pennington vs. NYG - Looked just OK in his return last week
but should be fully up to speed against the G-men in Week 9. When
healthy, he's one of the most efficient QBs around. Santana Moss
is also emerging as a deep threat so look out if those two guys
establish a rapport.
Tim Rattay vs. STL - Banks, Chandler, Kanell, Tuiasosopo, and
now Rattay. Anyone still think the NFL babies its QBs? Believe
it or not, he might be the best of the bunch. He looked good in
mop-up duty vs. Minnesota and the Niners didn't sign him to a
three-year extension 'cuz he's a good guy. If I were in a pinch,
I wouldn't be afraid to start him.
Brian Griese vs. IND - In the least cleverly disguised demotion
of the week, Fiedler took a seat and Griese Jr. took the helm.
That's probably a good thing for owners of Ricky Williams as opponents
will now be forced to respect the long ball. Whether it's a good
thing for owners of Brian Griese remains to be seen. I'm guessing
he'll do a serviceable job but won't win anyone a fantasy championship.
Chris Chandler vs. SD - Normally, this would be an unconscionable
recommendation. Nonetheless, San Diego's secondary is awful (15
TDs yielded) and Chandler is just savvy enough to take advantage.
Don't expect big yards but a couple scores isn't out of the question,
especially if A-Train starts and takes the heat off.
Grab A Clipboard:
Tony Banks vs. CAR - What, Dan Pastorini wasn't available? This
guy got more shots than he deserved to prove he's a legitimate
NFL starter. He failed miserably every time. Nothing has changed
except that he's a little older (not wiser) and playing for a
crappier team. Leave him on the waiver wire where he belongs.
Kurt Kittner vs. PHI - Making matters even worse (is that possible?),
the franchise, Mr. Vick, is behind schedule on his rehab. It's
time the Atlanta brass pulled the plug on this season and handed
the ball to Kittner for good. If you feel like euthanizing your
own squad, do the same.
Aaron Brooks @ TB - His numbers are surprisingly good this year
(1695 yards, 12 TDs, and five picks). However, the Bucs play much
better when they're angry. Since they haven't beaten New Orleans
in almost two years, I'm guessing they'll be angry
and Brooks
will probably struggle as a result.
Danny Kanell vs. NE - His parents could only land nosebleed tix
in Baltimore. Lucky them. Plummer returns in two weeks so if you're
stuck with this guy in the interim, hang in there.
Joey Harrington vs. OAK - Simply put, he has no one to throw the
ball to. Things will get better but probably not this year and
definitely not this week. Go in another direction if you have
that luxury.
Must Start: The Top 15:
1. Jamal Lewis vs. JAX - Even
with a rook at quarterback and facing defenses designed to stop
him, Lewis manages 139.6 yards per contest. That's outtasite.
If he scored more touchdowns, he'd be giving Priest a run for
his money as fantasy's golden goose.
2. Ricky Williams vs. IND -
He only tallied 95 total yards against the lowly Chargers and
it took him quite a few touches to do that. Is something wrong?
Let's give him another look now that Griese is firmly established
as the starter. The Colts aren't very good against the run, for
the record (4.7 per carry and 131.0 per game).
3. Ahman Green @ MIN - It's
not a good enough reason to sit him (ever) but bear in mind that
Packer coaches are wearying of his fumble-itis and intend to give
Najeh Davenport more carries in the second half of the season.
Of course, Davenport has a reputation for butterfingers, as well,
so that plan could be short-lived.
4. Stephen Davis @ HOU - New
Orleans had no answer for him last week (178 yards and two touchdowns).
They're not alone. The Texans D is even more brutal (31st in the
league) and stands very little chance of slowing Mr. Davis down.
5. LaDainian Tomlinson @ CHI
- If not for a gift touchdown on Monday night (recovered fumble
at the one-yard line), his numbers would have been disappointing.
Still, he's obviously the show in San Diego and will continue
to be until Brees gets some decent protection. Expect heavy dosages
of LaDainian against a Bears squad that can't stop the run (4.7
per carry and 144.3 per game).
6. Shaun Alexander vs. PIT -
Steady as she goes. Alexander is a cinch for 100 total yards every
week. He probably won't give you too much more than that but it's
awful nice knowing what you'll get out of a guy on a consistent
basis.
7. Deuce McAllister @ TB - Not
as steady as Alexander but definitely more explosive. He's having
a hard time finding the endzone this year and that's why he hovers
outside the Top 5. Tampa is getting stingier against the run by
the week so he could be in for a long day on Sunday.
8. Clinton Portis vs. NE - The
Pats are tough to run the ball against and have no reason to fear
Danny Kanell. That means Portis will hafta earn everything he
gets on Monday night. Because he's so talented, that'll probably
be enough to warrant starting him. He's no sure thing to score
a touch, however.
9. Tiki Barber @ NYJ - He's
coming off a pretty large game against Minnesota (122 total yards
and a touch) and now faces the Jets, a team that can't seem to
slow anyone down on the ground. Even Philly's committee attack
racked up almost 200 yards last week. Look out if Tiki is able
to hold on to the football.
10. Domanick Davis vs. CAR -
It happens every single year. A guy comes out of virtually nowhere
and sets the league on fire. Davis is that guy in '03 and there's
no reason to think he'll fade away. He's physically gifted, he
has soft hands, and he's getting the opportunities. Ride him 'til
he poops out
IF he poops out.
11. Fred Taylor @ BAL - The
Ravens have only allowed three rushing TDs all year so it might
be a stretch to expect Taylor to score. Then again, it's Week
9 and he's still playing. Isn't that a good enough reason to put
him on this list?
12. Michael Pittman vs. NO -
He's as dangerous in the passing game as he is toting the rock
and he faces a 'Nawlins squad that got steamrolled by Stephen
Davis last week. I expect big things out of him as a result.
13. Charlie Garner @ DET - The
touchdown problem (only two so far) could be resolved this week
against a pitiful Detroit defense. Coach Callahan won't put too
much on Tuiasosopo's shoulders either, so he's a good start in
the Motor City.
14. Edgerrin James @ MIA - He's
turning into an enigma, of sorts. He can still move the football
(104 yards last week) but often becomes a second option in the
red zone, which stands to reason when your quarterback is named
Peyton Manning. If you're thinking of sitting him against a stellar
Miami D, I won't try to dissuade you. He's still a better option
than most, however.
15. Anthony Thomas vs. SD -
He's not a lead pipe lock to play but if he does, you gotta start
him. The Bolts are giving up 4.4 yards per carry and Chicago doesn't
have a better option on offense. Check the injury report before
making a final decision.
Grab A Helmet:
Marcel Shipp vs. CIN - San Francisco was pretty good against the
run
until last week. Shipp pulverized them for 165 yards
and could do the same against a Cincinnati defense that is good
but not great (120.9 yards per game).
Rudi Johnson @ ARI - Speaking of Cincinnati, the Corey Dillon
saga got even weirder last week as he missed the Seattle game
due to multiple car wrecks (one he was involved in and another
he witnessed). He's officially listed as questionable so if he
sits (likely), Johnson becomes a tempting option.
Garrison Hearst vs. STL - The Cardinals shut him down but his
numbers have been stellar all year long (515 yards and three scores
on the ground). If the Rams jump out to a big lead, he may be
neutralized again. Still, Rattay is relatively inexperienced and
Coach Erickson may want to lean on a strong running game to help
him out.
Moe Williams vs. GB - The already crowded backfield becomes even
more crowded with the return of Michael Bennett. That means this
may be the last week you wanna use Moe. The crippled Green Bay
front can be pushed around, though, and since Bennett will need
some time to get acclimated, Williams is still a decent option.
Correll Buckhalter @ ATL - It doesn't appear Westbrook will play
so Buckhalter likely gets the nod. Good thing for him because
Atlanta is a fun team to run the ball against (149.7 yards per
game).
Grab A Gatorade:
Marshall Faulk @ SF - He's back but don't assume he'll pick up
where he left off. At least, not yet. The Rams intend to use him
sparingly since Arlen Harris has proven to be a very capable fill-in.
Wait a week or two.
Curtis Martin vs. NYG - The end is nearing for Martin and even
though he still puts up decent numbers (110 yards last week),
he's losing goal-line carries to Lamont Jordan. That is never
a good thing.
T.J. Duckett vs. PHI - You're probably tempted to start him as
long as Kittner is under center. That's not a bad idea most weeks
but Philly is stout against the run (3.0 per carry and less than
100 per game). He's an iffy start at best in Week 9.
Any Detroit RB vs. OAK - For the second consecutive week, the
Lions face a horrible defense. For the second consecutive week,
I implore you to resist the urge to start Gary or Bryson. The
committee approach doesn't work for most teams. Why would it work
for Detroit?
Onterrio Smith vs. GB - He has a bright future in the league but
he's got way too much competition right now. He could steal a
carry or two (maybe even a touchdown) but you don't wanna count
on that as you head down the homestretch.
Must Start: The Top 15:
1. Randy Moss vs. GB - His numbers
against Green Bay alone would comprise a career for lesser receivers.
Expect nothing to change on Sunday night as Culpepper will look
to him early and often
and deep. Gulp!
2. Torry Holt @ SF - I promised
he'd score last week and he did. If you're keeping track at home,
that's 3-0 for yours truly on guarantees this year. I probably
wouldn't be going out on a limb to predict another score but let's
play it safe and say he'll put up 100 yards at the very least.
3. Marvin Harrison @ MIA - Miami
isn't a favorable matchup, even for someone as great as Harrison.
Still, there's no reason to sit him. He'll get his yards and,
with any luck, a touchdown as well.
4. Chad Johnson @ ARI - Like
his more famous cousin (Meshawn), he's one cocky mofo. Unlike
his more famous cousin, he backs it up most of the time. Though
he had me worried, a 53-yard catch and sprint sealed the deal
against the 'Hawks last week. Expect another big play (or two)
in the desert.
5. Isaac Bruce @ SF - Holt's
second fiddle is good enough for first chair on your team. Hopefully,
Bulger will realize he's good enough to catch a TD every once
in a while, too.
6. Hines Ward @ SEA - When Maddox
isn't throwing the ball to opposing defenders, he's usually throwing
it to this guy. Ward tallied 90 yards and a pair of scores against
St. Louis and could duplicate those numbers against a Seattle
secondary that is a year away from being great.
7. Terrell Owens vs. STL - With
Garcia on the shelf, it might seem logical to bump T.O. down a
notch or two. I think that would be a mistake. Young QBs often
rely on #1 receivers and there's no question who the #1 receiver
in San Fran is. Just ask him.
8. Joe Horn @ TB - He's been
a touchdown machine so far (six on the year) and Brooks is running
out of options with Stallworth hobbled. Tampa isn't a good matchup
but somebody will catch something this week and it will more than
likely be Mr. Horn.
9. Jimmy Smith @ BAL - Leftwich
is experiencing the usual growing pains but doesn't have many
options aside from Smith. He can still get deep (a 49-yard TD
grab last week) and will likely put up better numbers as the kid
matures.
10. Amani Toomer @ NYJ - Would
you believe he's averaging more per catch (19.7) than any other
receiver on this list? Hilliard took away the scoring opportunities
last week but Toomer is still the main man and Collins' favorite
target.
11. Donald Driver @ MIN - The
numbers say he doesn't belong in the Top 15 but the upside says
he does. He's still relatively young and also had a week off to
(finally) get healthy. Expect a big night at the Metrodome in
(alas) a losing effort.
12. Keenan McCardell vs. NO
- Keyshawn sniped a score but McCardell was clearly the go-to
guy last week (six catches for 68 yards). New Orleans gives up
plenty of touchdowns (12), too, if not a ton of yards through
the air.
13. Steve Smith @ HOU - Ever
since I jumped on the bandwagon and called him "marginal,"
he's gone nuts. Guess he showed me, huh? He'll probably add insult
to injury vs. a Texans secondary that's truly awful against the
pass.
14. Laveranues Coles @ DAL -
He belongs in the Top 5 but I won't put him there until he finds
the endzone again. That isn't likely to happen this week against
the top-ranked (!!!) Dallas D. Yes, you heard me right.
15. Chris Chambers vs. IND -
With Griese in the fold, his stock increases exponentially. Teams
that focus on Ricky (and who wouldn't?) will likely pay the price
when this guy goes deep
especially now that his QB can reach
him.
Grab A Helmet:
Jerry Porter @ DET - He adds an entirely new dimension (speed)
to a Raiders attack that sorely needed it. Facing a pitiful Detroit
secondary on Sunday, he could explode
provided Tui can get
him the ball.
Darrell Jackson vs. PIT - The Steelers are a sieve on defense
right now, decent numbers to the contrary. Next to Toomer, he's
averaging the most yards per catch (19.1) of anyone with more
than 20 catches. Expect big things this Sunday, maybe even a long
touchdown grab.
Terry Glenn/Joey Galloway vs. WAS - Take your pick here but one
of these guys will score a touchdown against the reeling Redskins.
Glenn seems to be the receiver du jour but Galloway is just as
capable and a better deep threat.
Peerless Price vs. PHI - Call me a glutton for punishment but
he's suiting up for my squad this weekend. Brian Finneran should
take some heat off and the Eagles aren't very good vs. the pass
(236.2 per game).
Todd Heap vs. JAX - He got jobbed by the replay gremlins last
week but is fast becoming Boller's most reliable target. He's
also facing a Jaguars secondary that doesn't provide much in the
way of resistance (221.3 yds./game and 12 touchdowns).
Santana Moss vs. NYG - It shouldn't have taken so long to make
him an integral part of the passing game but there's no use lamenting
that fact now. He faces a Giants secondary that is both hurting
and susceptible to big plays, Moss' specialty.
Grab Some Wood:
Plaxico Burress @ SEA - Has anyone noticed he could pass for Darius
Miles, the Cavs' waif-ish shooting guard? Unfortunately, he's
putting up Miles-like numbers of late (one snatch for six yards
last week). Worse yet, he's questioning Cowher's play-calling.
You don't mess with the dean of NFL coaches and get away with
it
usually.
Koren Robinson vs. PIT - I must be insane since he faces the horrendous
Steelers secondary this week. Call it reverse psychology. He simply
must contribute more to be considered a viable option in fantasy
leagues.
Any Denver receiver vs. NE - The Pats have yielded only three
TD receptions this year and it seems unlikely Kanell will break
that trend. Smith and Lelie will instantly become good options
two weeks from now so if you can afford to sit them down until
then, do it.
Any New England receiver @ DEN - Don't get me wrong. These guys
can play. Unfortunately, that's precisely the problem. Brady likes
spreading the rock around and when the rock gets spread around,
individual stats suffer.
Good luck, folks!
:: comments to jospeh
hutchins
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