
Your Weekly Guide to Fantasy Lineups
12/18/03
Email Joseph
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I apologize for the abbreviated version, folks, but my baby daughter
has decided to join the family a week and a half early. In fact,
by the time you read this, she'll likely be helping her daddy
prep for the upcoming championship weekend. Trust me. He needs
all the help he can get. If you have specific lineup questions,
please e-mail them to me. I should be back in front of a computer
no later than Friday afternoon. Thanks for your understanding
and, as always, good luck!
Must Start: The Top 10
1. Peyton Manning vs. DEN -
If you faced him last week, you're probably not playing this week.
If you face him this week, good luck. Denver's pass defense is
pretty good but also ultra-conservative (a league-worst eight
interceptions this year). Peyton should shine again.
2. Trent Green @ MIN - How does
13 TD passes against two interceptions sound? Those are Green's
numbers over the last six games. Oh, almost forgot. He threw for
over 300 yards in four of those contests, as well. He's a phenomenal
start indoors against a suspect Vikings D.
3. Daunte Culpepper vs. KC -
That suspect D should yield plenty of KC points and that means
Minnesota will need Culpepper to go nuts again. Fortunately for
his owners, he usually does when the Vikes are playing from behind.
Expect him to rebound from a sub-par game in the Windy City, albeit
in a losing effort.
4. Matt Hasselbeck vs. ARI -
He seems like the perfect championship start. He's putting up
big numbers this year and Arizona hasn't stopped anyone of late,
not even (gasp!) Kordell Stewart. One caveat, though: he threw
only 19 passes in the first meeting between these teams. If Shaun
Alexander is enough to bludgeon the hapless Cards, Hasselbeck's
numbers could be slightly disappointing.
5. Marc Bulger vs. CIN - That
Marvin Lewis D is starting to give up some serious points (29.0
per in the last four games). Luckily, Kitna & Co. are picking
up the slack. Bulger directs the second-highest scoring home offense
in the league (34.6 points/game) so I gotta think he'll have some
success this weekend.
6. Brett Favre @ OAK - Favre
doesn't get out to the Left Coast very often (I should know) but
when he does, he usually lights it up. Is it the weather? Hard
to tell. The matchup in Oakland is definitely a good one for him,
regardless. The Raiders aren't rolling over and dying but they
still don't play very good defense (29th in the league).
7. Donovan McNabb vs. SF - Remember
that "lateral" he threw to Correll Buckhalter for a
score on Monday night? Cost me a playoff game. Sigh. No matter.
It's a dynasty league and I'm feeling pretty good about McNabb
for next year. If you're still alive, forget about next year and
live in the now.
8. Jeff Garcia @ PHI - He has
nine touchdowns (six passing, three running) in his last TWO games.
That's pretty amazing, even if you consider six of them came against
an atrocious Arizona team. The Eagles aren't the Cardinals but
they're not exactly Dallas or Tampa, either (19th in the league
in total defense). Expect Garcia to put up some decent numbers
at the Linc.
9. Jon Kitna @ STL - Like Green,
Kitna also has 13 TD passes over the last six games (against three
INTs). The two differ only when it comes to yardage. Of course,
that's irrelevant if you're in a TD-only league. Even if you're
not, it's hard to overlook a guy that doesn't turn the ball over
much and has two viable weapons in the passing game (Chad Johnson
and Peter Warrick).
10. Michael Vick @ TB - How
do you advance to your championship game when Vick puts up NEGATIVE
numbers? Face someone who's dumb enough to start Tim Hasselbeck.
True story, folks. I'm putting him right back in the lineup even
though his matchup with Tampa is less than ideal.
Must Start: The Top 15:
1. Priest Holmes @ MIN - Only
Atlanta has given up more rushing touchdowns than Minnesota (19)
this year. Can you say dream matchup? Priest visits the Metrodump
with 22 TDs under his belt. I GUARANTEE he'll add at least another
to go along with 100+ yards this weekend.
2. Ahman Green @ OAK - Not to
be outdone, the Raiders have given up 18 rushing touchdowns on
the season. Even better for Green owners, they're giving up almost
150 yards per game, good for 32nd (aka, last) in the league. Batman
should run wild at Network Associates and make Shot Caller a league
champion in the process.
3. LaDainian Tomlinson @ PIT
- Joe Horn got all the pub but this guy got all the yards. All
the yards as in the MOST receiving yards of any player (not just
any receiver) last week. Has Coach Schottenheimer finally figured
out how to utilize him? LaDainian owners can only hope so since
he faces a lackluster Curtain D this Sunday.
4. Jamal Lewis @ CLE - He had
no problem grinding out yards against the crummy Raiders front
(125 to be exact) but couldn't find his way into the endzone.
Bummer. Chances are pretty good he won't be shut out again in
Cleveland.
5. Shaun Alexander vs. ARI -
Arizona isn't terrible against the run (114.6 per game) but probably
doesn't stand a very good chance of slowing down Alexander and
a HIGHLY motivated Seahawks squad. Expect him to get a lot of
work in a game Seattle simply must win...and will.
6. Deuce McAllister @ JAX -
If you saw the final before you browsed the box score, you were
probably disappointed. You'd think he could score at least once
in a rout of that magnitude. Nevertheless, 145 total yards is
better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. He needs to
break a three-game TD drought in Jacksonville, though.
7. Marshall Faulk vs. CIN -
As mentioned previously, the Bengals are starting to give up lots
of points and even bigger chunks of yardage, mostly on the ground
(4.6 per carry and 129.4 per game). The Rams need to keep pace
with the Eagles for home-field advantage so Marshall should have
a nice day.
8. Clinton Portis @ IND - He'd
be right behind Holmes and Green if he were 100%
but he isn't.
In fact, he's still officially listed as questionable. Muddying
the waters is the fact Denver has a capable backup in Mike Anderson.
Do you roll the dice? Search me.
9. Edgerrin James vs. DEN -
Like Lewis, he gathered plenty of yards but no scores in the big
win over Atlanta. If Denver mobilizes to slow down Peyton (they
have to, don't they?), Edge should have a pretty big day. At the
very least, you can expect 80-100 yards and a score or two.
10. Fred Taylor vs. NO - Though
you couldn't have guessed it last week, the Saints are pretty
feeble vs. the run (4.6 per carry and 136.6 per game). Taylor
was neutralized in Foxboro but will have no trouble finding room
to run in Week 16. He's a great start if you're still breathing.
11. Kevan Barlow @ PHI - Lost
in the hubbub over Philly's long winning streak is the fact they
don't defend the run very well (4.5 per carry and 127.8 per game).
Indeed, Ricky and the Dolphins gashed them for 177 rushing yards
on Monday night. Barlow is capable of doing the same as he tallied
over 150 total yards to go along with two scores last week.
12. Jerome Bettis vs. SD - Blame
the blizzard for his modest output in New York. San Diego can't
slow anyone down and if Maddox manages to get something going
in the passing game (he will), the Bus should find plenty of room
to roam. It might be his last home game, too. Just another factor
to think about.
13. Ricky Williams @ BUF - He's
gone over the century mark four of the last five games, an encouraging
sign when you consider the competition has been pretty stiff (Baltimore,
Dallas, and Philly). Oddly enough, Buffalo qualifies as stiff
competition with a defense that ranks 7th against the run and
2nd overall.
14. Thomas Jones vs. ATL - You
don't think "workhorse" when you think Thomas Jones
but 34 carries and 134 yards (his totals last week) say otherwise.
Facing a Falcons D that gives up boatloads of yardage, he could
be the sneaky start of the week and a championship game MVP.
15. Travis Henry vs. MIA - For
the second consecutive week, he faces a very solid run defense.
That's not a good enough reason to sit him down, though. He's
likely your #2 back if you've made it this far and 80-100 yards
is pretty good production from a #2 back. Keep him in the lineup.
Must Start: The Top 15:
1. Randy Moss vs. KC - Two high-octane
offenses + two crappy defenses = shootout city in Minneapolis
this Saturday. Even with a few duds this season, Moss is averaging
over 100 yards and almost one touch per game. There's absolutely
no reason to think the 28th-ranked Chiefs D will slow him down.
2. Torry Holt vs. CIN - He's
averaging even more yards per game than Randy (108.4) but has
fewer touchdowns (11). Of course, Randy doesn't have to share
catches with Ike Bruce. Neither, for that matter, will Holt if
the gimpy Reverend is forced to sit (high ankle sprain). He's
a great start as usual.
3. Marvin Harrison vs. DEN -
I promised you vintage Marvin and he came through with a vintage
performance (seven catches, 117 yards, and two scores). He might
have trouble matching those numbers against a decent Denver D
but come on
would you really consider sitting him? Lemme
answer that one for you: NO!
4. Chad Johnson @ STL - You'd
think an ex-Duck might harbor some bitterness toward an ex-Beaver
who's been fined more money than most of us make in a year. You'd
be wrong. As the irrepressible receiver said of himself this week,
"that's just Chad." God, I love players who use the
third person.
5. Terrell Owens @ PHI - He's
hitting his stride just in time for championship week. Though
I expect the Niners to struggle a bit in Philly, he should be
able to put up decent numbers (and maybe even a score or two)
against an average Eagles pass defense. Besides, who else is Garcia
gonna throw it to?
6. Hines Ward vs. SD - The setup
may not be ideal (read: nothing to play for) but San Diego seems
to bring out the best in an opponents' passing game (a mind-boggling
33 TDs yielded this year). Maddox and Co. should make up for a
poor effort in the snow with a big day at Heinz in Week 16.
7. Darrell Jackson vs. ARI -
Arizona hasn't won on the road. Seattle hasn't lost at home. Call
me crazy but I smell "total butt-kicking" this Sunday.
If butts do indeed get kicked, you can expect Mr. Jackson to be
one of the kickers. He's the most reliable of a generally unreliable
group.
8. Derrick Mason @ HOU - Whoever
lines up under center will certainly know where to find this guy.
Now that teams are forced to reckon with Justin McCareins, Mason
is finding even more holes in opposing secondaries (over 111 yards
receiving/game in his last three). It goes without saying the
Texans are lousy vs. the pass (239.1 yards/game). Keep him in
your lineup.
9. Keenan McCardell vs. ATL
- His numbers have been disappointing in the past month but that
has a lot to do with the emergence of Thomas Jones and a reliable
running attack. The tonic? A league-worst Falcons pass defense
(249.4 yards/game). McCardell should find the end zone this Saturday.
10. Joe Horn @ JAX - Most will
remember him as the guy who placed the most expensive three-second
call in history. We'll remember him as the guy who slayed many
a championship contender in Week 15. Don't expect similar numbers
this week as his gratuitous act likely earned him a great, big
bull's eye.
11. Anquan Boldin @ SEA - The
change in signal-callers doesn't seem to have affected his production.
In fact, only Moss and Holt have more receiving yards this year.
The problem, as always, is that he doesn't catch enough touchdown
passes. Don't expect that to change with Josh McCown running the
show.
12. Tony Gonzalez @ MIN - If
it's touchdowns you're looking for, look no further. Gonzo has
scored four of them in his last three games and should find paydirt
again this weekend facing a porous Vikings secondary.
13. Steve Smith vs. DET - Another
game, another 50+ receiving yards. All we need him to do now is
find the endzone again
which he should do against a beleaguered
Lions squad.
14. Santana Moss vs. NE - He
picked a heckuva time to fall off the face of the earth. Games
in blustery Buffalo and snowy Jersey haven't helped and now comes
a visit from the big, bad Pats. He stays in the Top 15 on potential
alone.
15. Jimmy Smith vs. NO - The
return to balmy Jacksonville should work wonders for Leftwich
and the Jacksonville passing attack. Smith only caught two balls
in Foxboro last week but made the most of them by tallying 73
yards. Expect a solid day from him in Week 16.
:: comments to jospeh
hutchins
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