
Your Weekly Guide to Fantasy Lineups
11/21/03
Email Joseph
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The Shot Caller was almost felled by a nasty cold this week so
if it's all the same to you guys, I'm gonna dispense with the
customary introduction and get right down to business. Fair enough?
If anything that follows sounds fishy, you can blame the gallon
of Nyquil I chugged while writing it. Ahhh-choo and away we go...
Must Start: The Top 10
1. Steve McNair @ ATL - He suffered
his worst outing of the season last week but hangs on to the top
spot thanks to a juicy matchup with league doormat, Atlanta. The
Falcons give up over 270 passing yards per game and will be hard-pressed
to hold McNair under 300.
2. Peyton Manning @ BUF - This
guy could make ANY receiver look good. Though the Bills have fared
pretty well on defense this year, they haven't faced many quality
attacks. When they have (KC, for instance), they've struggled.
Peyton should have the Orchard Park faithful squirming in their
seats this Sunday.
3. Daunte Culpepper vs. DET
- Sometimes, you've gotta take the good with the bad. He's averaging
198.6 yards/game when he doesn't throw an interception and 335.6
yards when he does. More throws means more picks but also more
yards and, ultimately, more fantasy points. Translation? Don't
sweat it.
4. Chad Pennington vs. JAX -
The Jets mantra might be "wait 'til next year" but if
YOU own this guy, the time is now. He doesn't make many mistakes
and is averaging three touchdown passes over his last three contests.
Expect him to throw for at least a couple more against the dubious
Jaguars' secondary.
5. Marc Bulger @ ARI - Word
on the street is he was thisclose to getting yanked at Soldier
field last week. Luckily, Coach Martz stuck with him and was rewarded
with a brilliant come-from-behind effort. The forecast calls for
sunnier skies and pathetic pass defense in Arizona so stick with
him.
6. Trent Green vs. OAK - Don't
blame Green for KC's meltdown in the Queen City. He was his usually
solid self (313 yards and two scores) and now faces a Raiders
defense that gave up almost 400 passing yards last week.
7. Tom Brady @ HOU - He survived
the Dallas D and proved once again he knows how to win even when
he's not having a great game. Though his receiving corps is decimated,
he should find some open passing lanes against a Houston team
that gives up tons of yardage through the air (237.2 per game).
8. Jake Plummer vs. CHI - Since
the clunker in Week 1, he's only thrown one interception. Of course,
he's only played in six games. No matter. It's clear he's a changed
man and If he stays healthy, he could very well lead you to the
promised land.
9. Brad Johnson vs. NYG - He's
turning the ball over a bunch which is uncharacteristic of him.
Fortunately, he faces a Giants secondary that isn't very opportunistic
(eight picks on the year). He also does so without the services
of Keyshawn Johnson
which is a good thing.
10. Jon Kitna @ SD - Raise your
hand if you thought Carson Palmer would be starting by now. He
may not be the future, but there's no way Kitna loses his job
this year unless the Bengals start playing like
well, the
Bengals. Expect big numbers against a god-awful Chargers team
in Week 12.
Grab A Helmet:
Tim Rattay @ GB - Garcia is ostensibly the starting quarterback
but you can bet your bottom dollar Niners fans breathed a collective
sigh of relief when Rattay was named the starter earlier this
week. Only the elements will prevent him from having a great game
in Titletown.
Donovan McNabb vs. NO - Don't worry. He'll be back in the Top
10 soon. For now, take heart in the fact that Donovan hasn't thrown
an INT in three games. Baby steps, people.
Kelly Holcomb vs. PIT - I was wrong about him last week but you
shouldn't get too excited over his performance against a bottom-feeder
like Arizona. He's still one of the most inconsistent QBs around.
Nevertheless, he faces a Steelers secondary that looks much better
on paper than it does in reality.
Tommy Maddox @ CLE - Like Holcomb, he's been consistently inconsistent.
One positive sign, however, is that he's thrown only one pick
in the last three games. If the expected shootout materializes
in Cleveland, he could be golden.
Grab A Clipboard:
Brett Favre vs. SF - Yes, that was the Power-I formation you saw
the Pack line up in last Sunday. Until Favre's thumb heals, you
can expect to see more of it in the future. If you're still on
the fence, consider that rain and/or snow are predicted for Sunday.
Joey Harrington @ MIN - He just lost his "best" receiver,
Scotty Anderson, to injured reserve. Doesn't that tell you all
you need to know about the Lions offense? But, wait
there's
more (see below).
Jake Delhomme @ DAL - He threw for a ton of yards last week (317)
and still needed a mystery TD by Stephen Davis to beat the 'Skins.
Facing a Dallas D that makes good quarterbacks look bad and bad
quarterbacks look worse, he could struggle mightily in Week 12.
Quincy Carter vs. CAR - Theismann and Maguire couldn't stop gushing
about this guy last Sunday night. Were they watching the same
game I was? He's thrown two TDs and seven picks in his last four
games. Upside or no, he's not a QB that's going to lead you to
a fantasy championship.
Drew Bledsoe vs. IND - Buffalo's last touchdown came about 2 months
ago. If you haven't already planted Bledsoe on the bench, you
should probably do so now.
Must Start: The Top 15:
1. Priest Holmes vs. OAK - He'll
have trouble fending off Green in the weeks to come but for one
more week, at least, he's the #1 back. The reason? A Raiders defense
that yields boatloads of yards on the ground (147.4 per game and
4.5 per carry).
2. Ahman Green vs. SF - #2 on
this list but #1 in our hearts. Of course, he also happens to
be #1 in fantasy points this year. Forget about matchups with
this guy as the Pack has proven it can (and will) run on anyone.
3. Jamal Lewis vs. SEA - He's
failed to top 100 yards only three times this year. With Anthony
Wright under center, the Ravens better hope he doesn't fail to
do it again. Coach Billick surely knows that Seattle has given
up a staggering 163 rushing yards per game in three road losses.
4. Deuce McAllister @ PHI -
He's averaging over 150 total yards in his last seven contests.
Thanks to a depleted receiving corps and an anemic passing attack,
he should continue to get the bulk of the work. In fact, one could
argue the Saints' flagging playoff hopes positively depend on
it.
5. Clinton Portis vs. CHI -
After some early injury concerns, he's settled down and is now
getting almost 30 touches per game. Even bad backs can make something
happen when they get that many opportunities. He's not a bad back,
either. He's a great one.
6. Edgerrin James @ BUF - Although
Peyton threw for over 400 yards, Edge managed to run the ball
36 times and score three touchdowns against the Jets. With Harrison
still hobbled, Coach Dungy may lean on him heavily again.
7. LaDainian Tomlinson vs. CIN
- His three biggest days have come against Oakland, Cleveland,
and Minnesota. Those teams have one thing in common: lousy defense.
Cincy's defense has been anything but lousy of late and though
he usually finds a way to produce (whether on the ground or through
the air), Tomlinson could struggle this Sunday.
8. Ricky Williams vs. WAS -
If you like quantity over quality, Ricky's your man. He's carried
the ball more times (246) than any other back in the league but
is averaging just 3.3 per tote. That is two yards PER CARRY off
Ahman Green's mark of 5.3. Hopefully, a soft 'Skins D will help
him improve on those numbers in Week 12.
9. Fred Taylor @ NYJ - He's
using words like "probably" to describe his chances
of playing this Sunday. Coming from him, that's not an overly
encouraging sign. If he is indeed ready to rock, he's a very good
start against a matador Jets run defense (154.1 yards per game).
10. Shaun Alexander @ BAL -
Coach Holmgren said we'd see mo' Morris against the Lions last
week. If he meant mo' as in more than two carries, he wasn't lying.
Alexander is the main damage-doer and though he'll hafta fight
for yards against a tough Ravens D, he should find paydirt at
least once.
11. Stephen Davis @ DAL - He's
been listed on the injury report for a couple weeks now, but he's
still managed to get almost 30 touches per game. He might need
that many to reach 100 yards against a stellar Dallas front seven
(3.4 yards per carry).
12. Marshall Faulk @ ARI - He
finally topped the century mark against the Bears last week but
got more than half of those yards on one play. Expect him to become
a bigger part of the offense as the Rams position themselves for
a playoff run.
13. Tyrone Wheatley @ KC - Teams
that give up 4.9 per carry and 130 rushing yards per game don't
win Super Bowls. Period. Wheatley will think he's back in Ann
Arbor again after running the ball 30+ (40+?) times this weekend.
14. Tiki Barber @ TB - He's
been held under 100 total yards in only two games this year and
he even gained 99 in one of those. The league has finally caught
up with Tampa's vaunted "Two" so a heavy dosage of Tiki
is probably on tap for this Monday night.
15. Anthony Thomas @ DEN - Another
former Wolverine who should see plenty of action in Week 12. The
Bears don't stand much of a chance anyway, but they don't stand
a chance at all if Thomas doesn't carry the ball 25 times.
Grab A Helmet:
Antowain Smith @ HOU - Coach Belichick is smart enough to know
you don't go very deep in the playoffs without a legitimate running
game. Smith has been getting more carries of late and though he's
been languishing on my bench all year, he'll get the nod this
Sunday against the Texans. Wish me luck.
Jerome Bettis @ CLE - His expiration date was about two years
ago but the Steelers don't have a better option at the tailback
position. I have a sneaking suspicion he'll sneak one into the
end zone against a crummy Browns run defense (117.3 yards per
game).
Moe Williams vs. DET - Predictably, his carries have dropped off
since Michael Bennett's return. Surprisingly, he's become a major
force in the passing game (over 200 yards the last two weeks).
We'll take 'em anyway we can get 'em, right?
Brian Westbrook vs. NO - Outside of Zach Crockett, Westbrook has
the best touchdown-per-touch ratio of any back in the league.
He's finally healthy again and is coming off a stellar three-TD
performance against the G-men. Expect him to see plenty of opportunities
against a weak New Orleans run defense (133.3 per game).
Rudi Johnson/Corey Dillon @ SD - Two backs. One backfield. Uh-oh.
Dillon's return couldn't come at a worse time for fantasy owners.
Still, there will probably be enough yards to go around against
a horrendous Chargers defense this week. After that, no promises.
James Jackson vs. PIT - His numbers aren't eye-popping but he
sure does have a nose for the end zone (three TDs in his last
two games). Cleveland always manages to score on Pittsburgh and
there's a good chance he could be one of the guys scoring come
Sunday.
Grab A Gatorade:
Any Washington RB @ MIA - Figuring out who will suit up is the
hard part. Figuring out who will actually perform is much easier:
nobody.
Any Detroit RB @ MIN - A visit from the Lions is exactly what
the reeling Vikes' D needs right now. No Detroit back has gained
more than 73 yards in a game and the leading rusher two weeks
ago was (are you sitting down?)
Reggie Swinton. He's a RETURN
man!
Troy Hambrick vs. CAR - If you like the kicking game, you'll love
this weekend's matchup in Big D. The Cowboys feasted on weaker
opponents in the first half but will struggle to score points
against playoff-caliber teams. If Carter's struggles continue
(they will), Hambrick becomes waiver-wire material.
Curtis Martin vs. JAX - I've pronounced him dead more than once
and for that, I deserve a reprimand. It appears I haven't learned
my lesson, though. He's nearing the end of the line and he faces
a solid Jacksonville front in Week 12 (3.1 per carry and 88.7
yards/game). I urge you to sit him again.
Warrick Dunn vs. TEN - What the
? He's averaging 170 (!)
yards rushing his last two games but Tennessee is a real step
up in terms of quality (78.8 rushing yards per game). Expect the
Titans to throw the kitchen sink at Dunn and force Doug Johnson
to beat them.
Must Start: The Top 15:
1. Randy Moss vs. DET - The
last time Randy felt neglected (and publicly stated as much),
he exploded for 172 yards and three scores against the Niners.
History could very well repeat itself as the Vikes attempt to
right the ship against a pitiful Lions defense in Week 12.
2. Torry Holt @ ARI - Only two
teams have kept him out of the endzone this year. One of them
sports a great record (Seattle). The other sports a great defense
(Baltimore). Arizona sports neither.
3. Santana Moss vs. JAX - He's
scored in six straight games and now trails the other Moss (and
Mr. Holt) by just one receiving TD on the year. Talk about en
fuego! He's facing a Jacksonville secondary that's yielded the
third most touchdown passes (16) so it's no big stretch to think
he'll score another this Sunday.
4. Chad Johnson @ SD - Take
me back? I promise I'll never doubt you again, bro. In fact, I'll
even call you "The Oracle" from here on out
provided
you don't go forecasting a Beavs victory in this weekend's Civil
War.
5. Terrell Owens @ GB - The
only person more thrilled by Rattay's third start (other than
Rattay himself) is Owens. The Packers struggle against GOOD, big
wideouts (I should have clarified last week) and T.O. definitely
fits the bill. Expect him to wreak havoc against an average Green
Bay secondary at Lambeau.
6. Derrick Mason @ ATL - More
from the weird statistics department: Mason has accumulated either
98 or 99 receiving yards in five of his team's ten games this
year. Of course, he's only accumulated one touch in those games,
too. Still, 100 yards is worth ten points in most yardage leagues.
How many receivers will give you a consistent ten points every
week?
7. Reggie Wayne/Marvin Harrison @ BUF
- If Harrison plays (still iffy), he obviously merits your #1
receiver slot. If he doesn't, Wayne is just as deserving of the
nod. Why? He's talented, for starters, and Peyton doesn't seem
to care who he's throwing the ball to. Monitor the injury reports
and make a game-time decision on Sunday if your league allows
it.
8. Keenan McCardell vs. NYG
- No, Meshawn. Throw HIM the damn ball. The Empire strikes back
in Tampa and McCardell is the chief beneficiary. He was already
the Bucs' leading receiver (15.3 per catch and seven touchdowns)
and should garner even more attention now that Johnson is shopping
for apartments in New York.
9. Hines Ward @ CLE - The yardage
numbers alone are Top 10 but the eight touchdowns are just gravy.
If Plaxico begins to get hot (he looked like a real receiver on
Monday night), Ward's totals could dip a bit.
10. Rod Smith vs. CHI - The
Snake returned with a bang last week so his #1 receiver returns
to the Top 10 this week. Simple cause and effect. Though Denver
has other receiving threats, Smith is the most consistent and
most reliable. He's even more valuable if your league counts return
yardage.
11. Anquan Boldin vs. STL -
Speaking of consistency, rookie receivers usually aren't. Consider
him the exception to that rule. He's big, fast, durable, and the
only viable option in the passing game for Jeff Blake.
12. Tony Gonzalez vs. OAK -
Only two owners in your league get receiver-type numbers from
the tight end position. One of them owns this guy (566 yards,
6 TDs). The other owns
13. Shannon Sharpe vs. CHI -
this guy (476 yards, 7 TDs). Six of his seven touchdowns
have come with Jake Plummer at the helm. Coincidence? Hardly.
14. Isaac Bruce @ ARI - The
lack of TD catches is maddening but facing a Cardinals secondary
that was torched by Kelly Holcomb last week, he's a good bet to
post solid numbers in Week 12. The yardage totals make him worth
starting on a regular basis, anyway.
15. Peter Warrick @ SD - He
accumulated over 200 all-purpose yards against the Chiefs and
even managed to steal some of Chad Johnson's thunder. Can he do
it again? Count on it against a woeful San Diego secondary (248.7
yards/game).
Grab A Helmet:
Justin McCareins @ ATL - As promised, Mr. McCareins found the
endzone last week. Though he'll never be the favored target between
the twenties, his value increases exponentially near the goal
line. Oh, and he's facing the Falcons on Sunday. Start him.
Deion Branch @ HOU - Though he only caught two balls last week,
Brady threw him the rock nine times. Bad receivers don't get nine
looks in the NFL
unless they play for Detroit. With Troy
Brown out and David Givens battling a leg injury, I anticipate
Branch being the focal point of the passing attack vs. a crummy
Houston defense.
Quincy Morgan/Andre Davis vs. PIT - One less "me" guy
in the mix seems to have worked wonders for the Browns receiving
corps. It's anybody's guess which one of these two will ultimately
become the man but it didn't seem to matter last week as both
put up good numbers. Expect more of the same against a weak Steelers
secondary.
Jimmy Smith @ NYJ - His quarterback is young and prone to big
mistakes. Nevertheless, he's got talent and only one option in
the passing game. You're looking at it.
Laveranues Coles @ MIA - Whether it's Ramsey or Hasselbeck, the
'Skins will need to throw the ball against Miami. Surprisingly,
that's been a fairly easy thing to do this year (234.3 yards/game).
A touchdown might be too much to ask, though, as the Fish have
given up only seven so far.
Grab Some Wood:
Koren Robinson @ BAL - He hasn't broken the century mark all year
and hasn't scored a receiving touchdown since Week 3. Is this
really a guy you wanna rely on come playoff time? I'm tired of
hearing how talented he is. Numbers are numbers and his don't
stack up against the top receivers in the league.
Eric Moulds vs. IND - How long can a guy linger on the questionable
list before he becomes just plain questionable? Owners in the
playoff hunt need healthy bodies and Moulds is clearly NOT healthy
right now. Neither is his offense. Steer clear until something
changes
drastically.
Muhsin Muhammad @ DAL - Think he's rediscovered his game after
a brilliant Week 12 performance? Think again. Muhammad last put
up consistently good numbers in 2000. This week, he faces a league-leading
Dallas D that stifles opposing passing attacks, especially bad
ones.
Donald Driver vs. SF - As the Packers lean more heavily on Green,
Driver will continue to struggle. Stash him away until Favre's
thumb stops hurting
IF it stops hurting.
Joe Horn @ PHI - Robinson, Moulds, Driver, and now Horn. What
has happened to all the upper crust receivers? The ability to
play through injuries may be an admirable trait in real football,
but it's the kiss of death in fantasy ball. Find someone who's
healthy and don't look back.
Good luck, folks!
:: comments to jospeh
hutchins
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