
Week 7
10/17/03
Email Joseph
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I'd like to thank everyone who chimed in on last week's direction-of-the-column
question. I received numerous responses and plenty of good suggestions
(even great ones) regarding where we should take this baby in the
future. Though I can't possibly please everyone, I'm certainly hoping
the column will--at the very least--remain useful for the broad
majority of fantasy gamers out there. After all, you wouldn't be
reading it (or commenting upon it) if you didn't find it somewhat
helpful in the first place, right? Right.
With that in mind, I've decided not to tinker with the format too
much, save for two notable exceptions. I will no longer be listing
injured players (players who are listed as "out" on the
official NFL injury report) or players who are on their bye week.
Though most of you had no problem with this, others felt (and I
ultimately agreed) that the commentary regarding idle players was
superfluous. We all know Peyton Manning is a top-of-the-line starter.
We don't need to be reminded (and probably don't WANT to be reminded),
that he's sitting out this week. Besides, with Manning out of the
way, some of the less notable signal-callers get a chance to step
into the fantasy spotlight, if only for a week.
I hope this minor alteration to the format doesn't drive any of
you away. I honestly think the lists will more accurately depict
the ranks of available fantasy players on a week-by-week basis.
For that reason, I also think they'll be more useful in the long
run. Once again, I truly appreciate the feedback and if you have
any other questions, concerns, complaints, feel free to drop me
a line.
Must Start: The Top 10 Plus 1
1. Steve McNair @ CAR - He almost
beat me by himself last week (421 yards and three scores). Almost.
He is laying waste to good secondaries and bad and now leads the
league in passing yardage (1632 yards). Expect more of the same,
regardless of matchups, since his backs provide virtually no assistance.
2. Daunte Culpepper vs. DEN - There
are some who think Minnesota is more effective with Frerotte at
the helm. Don't believe it. Culpepper is more talented in every
respect and will pick up where he left off against a good Broncos
D this week.
3. Marc Bulger vs. GB - If you missed the Monday Night game against
Atlanta (352 yards and 2 scores), you can catch the replay this
Sunday against the Pack. Mike McKenzie, Green Bay's only shutdown
corner, might sit. Torry Holt owners are already tallying up the
points.
4. Brett Favre @ STL - KC couldn't stop him last week (25 of 36
for 272 yards and a touch). Unfortunately, his defense couldn't
stop KC. That's bad for the Pack (really bad) but good for Favre
owners as he's likely to be involved in many more shootouts this
season, starting this Sunday in St. Louis.
5. Brad Johnson @ SF - Only McNair and Manning have been more
productive this year. Considering Tampa has no gamebreakers at
the receiver position, that's no small feat. And to think I snagged
him for Reggie Wayne a few weeks back. Sucker!!!
6. Drew Bledsoe vs. WAS - This might qualify as an understatement,
but he's been enigmatic so far (five TDs vs. four picks). A below-average
receiving corps and an anemic rushing attack certainly aren't
helping matters but something's not right here. Still, if Moulds
does play, I like Bledsoe's chances of righting the ship against
a 'Skins D minus Fred Smoot.
7. Trent Green @ OAK - See what you get when you rag on a guy
facing your favorite squad? I got your 400 yards and three touchdown
passes RIGHT here, cheesehead! The only thing standing between
him and another huge day in Oakland is Oakland's inability to
stop Priest Holmes.
8. Matt Hasselbeck vs. CHI - Though a dyed-in-the-wool West Coast
guy, Holmgren is doing his best to maintain balance this year
(149 passes vs. 142 runs). If that trend continues (and it may
against a dreadful Bears squad), Hasselbeck will continue to give
you modest numbers. Modesty doesn't win fantasy championships.
Gaudiness does.
9. Patrick Ramsey @ BUF - He's taking a beating (21 sacks so far)
and the warm fuzzies are starting to fade in Washington. That
said, he's thrown for 1518 yards (third-most in the league) and
will continue to wing it until The Ballcoach discovers a running
game. (Note to The Ballcoach: your running game plays for Carolina
now.)
10. Kerry Collins vs. PHI - In all fairness, I kept Favre on this
list when he probably played himself off it earlier in the year.
Look how that turned out. Collins is capable of duplicating the
feat provided he cuts down on the picks (pronto) and starts utilizing
his vast arsenal of offensive firepower.
Grab A Helmet:
David Carr vs. NYJ - Threw for 371 yards last week and a couple
scores. We could harp on the three picks but the fact of the matter
is turnovers aren't nearly as costly in fantasy ball as they are
in real life. Once he harnesses the power of that rocket launcher
he calls a right arm, look out.
Tim Couch vs. SD - He put up microscopic numbers last week (127
yards and no TDs) but that's mostly because William Green made
mincemeat out of the Raiders front seven. San Diego is just as
crappy on defense (OK, crappier) but, strangely enough, more potent
on offense. That's my way of saying you should expect a shootout
in Cleveland. Couch is in the midst of rekindling a career and
could inflict some serious damage in this one.
Aaron Brooks @ ATL - He's starting to show signs of life (seven
TDs vs. four picks and an 80.4 rating) but it may be too late
to salvage the season. Of course, unless you're a Saints fan,
you don't care about that. You care about fantasy points and,
like Bulger last Monday, he should deliver a bunch of them against
a miserable Falcons D in Week 7.
Jon Kitna vs. BAL - If ever a guy was a serviceable fantasy starter,
he's it (1164 yards and six TD passes). He won't win a ton of
games for you but he probably won't lose many either. If Dillon
ever rounds into form, the Bengals (thanks to an improving defense)
could surprise people in the second half. For now, be glad that
Kitna's throwing the ball to Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick.
Drew Brees @ CLE - The weapons on offense are there (Tomlinson
and Boston) and Brees is capable of using them effectively. More
importantly, the offense is going to be asked to carry the load
since the defense (obviously) can't. It's a tried and true fantasy
formula: bad defense = more offense.
Grab A Clipboard:
Jeff Garcia vs. TB - Don't be deceived by his fairly decent fantasy
numbers. He's run for three scores and those points have obscured
his below average passing stats (six TDs vs. seven INTs). More
importantly, he's not a good fit for Dennis Erickson's offense
and is barely escaping with his life most weeks. Until San Fran
figures out a way to protect him (good luck against Tampa), he'll
have a hard time finding his receivers downfield and improving
his efficiency.
Joey Harrington vs. DAL - Make no mistake about it: the loss of
Chas. Rogers during the bye week will prove costly. Detroit had
bottom five talent at the skill positions to begin with. Now,
they resemble a CFL team. Shawn Bryson? Bill Schroeder? Az Hakim?
You deserve better, Joey.
Kurt Kittner vs. NO - Is Dan Reeves desperate or what? Kittner
couldn't be much worse than Doug Johnson but that's no reason
to insert him in your lineup. Guys like him make writing this
column pretty easy.
Jay Fiedler vs. NE - He had a golden opportunity to redeem himself
vs. Jacksonville's dreadful secondary last week. He didn't do
it (14 of 27 for 147 yards and a pick). Since Ricky is obviously
capable of carrying the load, expect Wannstedt to remain conservative
and win with defense/ball control.
Chris Chandler @ SEA - Only an overeager Cubs fan prevents Kordell
Stewart from being the least popular guy in Chicago right now.
Chandler takes over the reins in time for a return trip to Seattle,
where he engineered U-Dub's offense seemingly 30 years ago. Even
THREE years ago, he was way past his prime. Don't go there.
Donovan McNabb @ NYG - I never thought he'd grace this list once,
let alone twice. He's clearly struggling right now and doesn't
have much to work with in the way of viable targets. Again, sit
him down until something changes in Philly.
Must Start: The Top 15:
1. Priest Holmes @ OAK - Went virtually unutilized in Green Bay
until overtime, when he carried it nine consecutive plays. Of
course, the Chiefs were in catch-up mode almost all day. They
won't be playing catch-up in Oakland so he should be in for a
fairly huge day against the atrocious Raiders D (164.7 rushing
yards/game).
2. Ahman Green @ STL - Don't look now but he's officially supplanted
Priest as the top scorer heading into Week 7. The fumbles are
troublesome (OK, heartbreaking) but they won't hurt your bottom
line in the fantasy world. Faces a largely untested Rams rushing
D that gives up 4.6 per carry so expect a cool hundy and at least
one score.
3. Ricky Williams vs. NE - His yards per carry are way down this
year (3.4 vs. 4.8 in 2002) but he's still scoring major points.
Perhaps that's because he's leading the league in attempts (134).
Expect him to continue getting the majority of touches until Wannstedt
eventually sours on Fiedler. That might be sooner than you think.
4. Jamal Lewis @ CIN - As promised, he broke off a big one against
the Cardinals (a 52-yarder). Unfortunately, he didn't score. For
now, the fewer TDs (compared to Holmes and Green) are the only
thing keeping him out of the top three. Faces the Bungles in Week
7 so big things might be in store.
5. Deuce McAllister @ ATL - Thanks to a 4.5 per carry average
and 25 receptions, Deuce has overcome an inability to find paydirt.
Fortunately, he faces an Atlanta D this week that has given up
a league-leading nine rushing touchdowns on the season. Come to
think of it, Atlanta's D seems to have given up on the season
itself. He's a great start in the Georgia Dome.
6. Clinton Portis @ MIN - With the Snake no longer a distraction,
defenses will gear up to take Portis away. Pittsburgh certainly
did in Week 6 as he carried it only 15 times for a paltry 47 yards.
The Vikings aren't terrific vs. the run (4.5 per carry) but I'm
expecting his numbers to tail off a little, nonetheless.
7. LaDainian Tomlinson @ CLE - Even with Tomlinson (a great young
back) and Schottenheimer (an old school coach), the Bolts have
managed only 118 rushing attempts this year. That accounts for
roughly 38% of their plays from scrimmage. What gives? Try a defense
that yields boatloads of yardage and way too many points. In fact,
they keep giving and giving and
. Teams that fall behind
as frequently as San Diego does can't afford to run the ball much
so Tomlinson may continue to struggle with consistency.
8. Stephen Davis vs. TEN - Could a legitimate MVP candidate end
up in a platoon situation by year's end? Don't laugh. Deshaun
Foster, who replaced the gimpy Davis last week, is clearly the
more explosive runner. Though Davis promises he'll play in Week
7, the Panthers won't (and shouldn't) be afraid of turning to
Foster should the big guy show any lingering effects of a forearm
injury. Monitor this situation VERY closely.
9. Shaun Alexander vs. CHI - He's listed as questionable this
week and since the 'Hawks are facing Northwestern
er, Chicago,
you might wanna sit him. Maurice Morris is a very capable backup
(6.9 per carry) and could see extended duty if Seattle jumps out
to an early lead. They will.
10. Tiki Barber vs. PHI - The Giants have the fifth-most productive
offense in the league but are only scoring 19 points a game. Care
to guess why? Only Arizona has turned the ball over more. Tiki
is part of the problem (three fumbles) and he's not making up
for it by scoring touchdowns (just one so far). Simply put, he's
an iffy start against the stout Philly front seven (68.2 rushing
yds./game).
11. Moe Williams vs. DEN - He reportedly will lose more carries
to Onterrio Smith in the coming weeks. That's not a good thing
from a fantasy perspective. Denver's D has also been pretty stingy
against the run (only two rushing TDs against) but recently lost
linebacker Ian Gold for the season. Expect the Vikes' mammoth
O-line, as a result, to create a scoring opportunity for both
Williams and Smith. Oh, and grab Michael Bennett on the off chance
he's still available in your league.
12. Travis Henry vs. WAS - Even with seven TDs to his credit,
he ranks outside the Top 10 in fantasy points for running backs.
A 2.6 average per carry will do that to you. Not sure if the questionable
passing attack is killing Henry's productivity or if it's the
other way around. Regardless, he's got a nose for the endzone
and, for the most part, that's all that matters to us.
13. William Green vs. SD - He wasted the Raiders last week (26
carries, 145 yards, and a score) and should find just as much
room to roam against an atrocious Chargers D this week. His per-carry
average is up around 4.0 now and I expect it to stay there for
the rest of year.
14. Troy Hambrick @ DET - This guy is a situational starter all
the way. He struggles against good defenses and feasts on poor
ones. Detroit's defense falls into the latter category and if
the Cowboys jump out to an early lead (which they've done with
some regularity of late), Hambrick should garner 20 carries and
another score.
15. Charlie Garner vs. KC - Speaking of garnering, it's time Charlie
and the Raidahs started garnering some points (not to mention
wins). Now that Tim Brown and Jerry Rice are starting to show
their age, he's the number one option in the offense. Though he'll
never be a pile-moving tailback, he's fleet enough to wreak havoc
on the perimeter and KC's defense, though better, is not exactly
stellar against the run (4.9 per carry).
Grab A Helmet:
Anthony Thomas @ SEA - Running backs who play for awful teams
don't usually stand a chance of being productive. Consider A-Train
the exception. Chicago was horrible last week but he still managed
96 yards on 21 carries. Now that Chandler is behind center, you
can expect Coach Jauron to ride Thomas until he drops. Seattle's
run defense is nothing special, either.
Domanick Davis vs. NYJ - I'm not trying to brag or anything but
I needed a stopgap solution at running back last week and picked
this guy up late Saturday night. 129 total yards later, I was
sitting at 6-0. He's much better than Stacey Mack (waiver wire
fodder) and could continue to post decent numbers in the coming
weeks. The Jets are anything but solid against the run (149.8
per game).
Michael Pittman @ SF - Like Davis, Pittman is Mr. Versatility.
He'll run for some yards and catch a handful of passes. The end
result is usually in the neighborhood of 75-100 total yards and,
if you're lucky, a score.
T.J. Duckett vs. NO - He's very similar (in build and in ability)
to Troy Hambrick. He's also broken off some surprisingly long
runs this year and could do so again this week. Coach Reeves will
do everything possible to protect Kurt Kittner in his first start
and the best way to protect a young QB is to run the ball. Ask
Jake Delhomme.
Lamar Gordon vs. GB - He's listed a probable on the injury report
so I guess that means he's probably a good start this week. The
Pack managed to contain Priest Holmes last week (as much as that's
possible) but isn't super against the run. If the Rams build a
lead (possible), he'll be asked to consume the clock and could
eventually find the endzone as a result.
Grab A Gatorade:
Eddie George @ CAR - He's an over-the-hill tailback who's losing
carries and red zone opportunities to his backups. He's facing
Carolina this week. He's averaging 2.8 yards per carry this year.
Shall I go on?
Corey Dillon vs. BAL - The groin is good as new
according
to him. You'll hafta excuse me for being skeptical. Facing Ray
Lewis and the boys, I don't like his chances of succeeding this
week. Sit him down one more time and let him prove he's back before
you start him again.
Garrison Hearst vs. TB - Ran for 62 yards and a touch vs. the
Seahawks. Tampa Bay is no Seattle, though. Use the platoon thing
with Barlow as your excuse this week and find another starter.
Ladell Betts @ BUF - Canidate appears to be on the shelf for this
one so Betts gets the call. Though the Bills aren't very stout
vs. the run (121.2 per game), I have a feeling Washington will
live and die with Ramsey and Co. this week. Call it a hunch 'cuz
the numbers don't support the prediction.
Kevin Faulk @ MIA - He's a third-down back masquerading as a feature
back. Surprisingly, he's done a helluva job so far (58 carries
for 263 yards), despite the fact he hasn't found the endzone.
Expect very little this week against a Miami defense that is only
yielding 70.8 yards/game and 3.2 per carry.
Must Start: The Top 15:
Randy Moss vs. DEN - Like McNair, matchups don't seem to matter
for Moss. He's an equal opportunity destroyer, lighting up the
best corners in the league as well as the worst. He's clearly
benefited from the emergence of a powerful rushing attack this
year, too, so expect more of the same in the future.
2. Torry Holt vs. GB - I'm already having visions of him torturing
the short-handed Packers secondary on Sunday. It's Friday. Here's
hoping I'm not clairvoyant.
3. Derrick Mason @ CAR - He may not have the wheels he once had
but he's still plenty dangerous. Witness his huge day vs. the
Texans last Sunday (six catches, 177 yards, and THREE touchdowns).
He's facing a much better Carolina defense in Week 7 but until
some semblance of a ground attack emerges--don't hold your breath--he'll
keep racking up the points.
4. Eric Moulds vs. WAS - Assuming he plays (not a given), he's
got a chance to go ballistic on a depleted Washington secondary
that has yielded the most passing TDs this year (12). I love Rashad
Bauman (Smoot's replacement and a fellow Duck), but he can't possibly
hope to contain the bigger, stronger, faster Moulds in Week 7.
5. Chad Johnson vs. BAL - Welcome back, old friend. We've missed
you. If Corey Dillon is still gimpy this week (he's listed as
questionable), Kitna and Co. will take to the air again. Surprisingly,
that hasn't been such a bad thing for Cincy. Mr. Johnson is the
reason why.
6. Joe Horn @ ATL - If the Saints are ever going to get healthy,
it's going to happen this week against the laughable Falcons defense.
Horn's running mate, Donte Stallworth, has disappeared so Horn
carries the burden for now. Expect at least one scoring hookup
with a steadily (if slowly) improving Aaron Brooks.
7. David Boston @ CLE - I'm glad he doesn't play for any of my
teams but he's doubtless a force to be reckoned with when his
head is screwed on straight. Though that isn't often, he's coming
off a HUGE game two weeks ago against Jacksonville (14 catches,
181 yards, and two scores). The Chargers will need points aplenty
to keep up with Couch and the Browns so expect more of the same
this week.
8. Terrell Owens vs. TB - Garcia had no trouble finding him last
week. Unfortunately, T.O. had trouble finding the handle (three
big drops). Is that any way to act after clamoring for more attention?
You'd better believe the Bucs will be paying him PLENTY of attention
in Week 7.
9. Laveranues Coles @ BUF - The Bills have defended the pass pretty
well this year (175 yds./game) and Patrick Ramsey is spending
more time on his back than his feet lately. If the O-line can't
shore up protection and give him more time to throw, it won't
matter how lethal Coles is in the open field.
10. Donald Driver @ STL - Nobody distributes the ball more democratically
than Favre (nine players caught passes last week), That probably
hurts Driver's value in the long run. Nevertheless, he's still
option #1 in the passing game and if the anticipated shootout
vs. the Rams materializes, he'll put up big numbers.
11. Amani Toomer vs. PHI - His 19.1 yards per catch is tops in
the league for guys with 20 or more catches. Unfortunately, his
quarterback has thrown more interceptions than anyone not named
Doug Johnson. That better change if the G-men hope to challenge
the Cowboys for NFC East supremacy.
12. Andre Johnson vs. NYJ - Took a back seat to Corey Bradford
in Week 6 but is still the most dangerous Texans receiver. Playing
for a team that gives up way too many points (30.2 per game),
he'll be relied upon heavily for the rest of the year.
13. Jeremy Shockey vs. PHI - Philly was better against the Cowboys
last week but is still giving up too much yardage through the
air. Shockey has caught as many balls as Moss so far (29) and
there aren't too many tight ends who can make that claim.
14. Tony Gonzalez @ OAK - Now we're talking! Gonzalez is coming
off a huge day in Wisconsin (four catches, 121 yards, and a score)
and is reaping the benefits (finally) of the undivided attention
paid to Priest. That should continue to be the case in Oakland
this week.
15. Isaac Bruce vs. GB - IF the Pack manages to contain Holt (and
even if they don't), Bruce should take advantage of mismatches
in the secondary. He's caught 27 balls for 397 yards so it's not
like he's an afterthought in the offense. Get him in your lineup.
Grab A Helmet:
Keenan McCardell @ SF - Provided Brad Johnson stops throwing the
ball to Todd Yoder and Will Heller in the red zone (who?), he's
a good bet to score against a Niners defense that has given up
11 passing TDs on the year.
Joey Galloway @ DET - He's not catching a ton of balls (less than
four per contest) but he's making the most of those catches (20.2
per grab). Detroit's secondary is third-rate so if Carter can
avoid an erratic performance, Galloway should shine.
Koren Robinson vs. CHI - My refusal to put him in the Top 15 is
causing consternation from coast to coast. OK, not really. Still,
I'm receiving plenty of hate mail regarding the 'Hawks young wideout.
You must understand that I LOVE Koren Robinson and would certainly
start him if he played on one of my teams. I only leave him out
because he competes for balls and because (as mentioned previously)
Holmgren seems dedicated to the run. Are we square?
Rod Smith @ MIN - The injury to Plummer hurts Smith's value. Beuerlein
simply isn't as good and can't escape the pocket like the Snake
can. That said, Minnesota's secondary is somewhat feast or famine.
They've intercepted 13 passes so far but will give up a fair amount
of big plays. Expect Smith to take advantage at least once.
Alge Crumpler vs. NO - Take away Peerless Price's huge day against
Minnesota and Crumpler has been the most valuable Falcons receiver
(21 catches, 316 yards, and two scores). Of course, since he's
not (technically speaking) a receiver, he's even more valuable
to your fantasy squad. Expect a decent game against the crummy
Saints if Kittner manages to find him.
Ernie Conwell @ ATL - Has anyone else noticed he's caught 21 balls
for 231 yards and two touchdowns? Those are pretty darn good numbers
when you consider how awful the Saints have been this year. Against
a pitiful Falcons defense that must focus on Joe Horn, he's liable
to continue the hot streak this weekend.
Grab Some Wood:
Any Philly receiver @ NYG - A reader suggested I was a little
harsh on the Philly receiving corps in light of Donovan's issues.
That may be the case (he's definitely struggling with accuracy)
but what are these guys going to do with it once they catch it?
Thrash, Pinkston, and Mitchell are not fantasy starters. Period.
Chris Chambers vs. NE - Save for a huge Week 1, Chambers has been
virtually a non-factor. The next-best Dolphins receiver (Derrius
Thompson) has only seven catches through five games. Think opponents
might be game-planning to take away Chambers? So do I.
Peerless Price vs. NO - I sat him two weeks ago and he exploded.
I started him last week and he IMploded (one catch for eight measly
yards). Until Vick returns (IF Vick returns), he's riding my bench.
That's not an indictment of his ability (Top 10 under the right
circumstances). It's an indictment of the charlatans throwing
him the ball.
Bill Schroeder vs. DAL - There aren't many guys who are better
athletes at the position (you think I'm kidding), but he's never
managed to translate his physical gifts into consistent production
(12 catches, 134 yards, and 1 TD so far). By default, he becomes
Harrington's favorite target this week. That's not good enough.
Bubba Franks @ STL - Trust me when I say he's overrated and has
been for quite some time. If it weren't for his uncanny ability
to find the endzone, he'd hardly be worth starting. Not to mention,
Favre seems to like throwing the ball to a more reliable Wesley
Walls
like I knew he might.
Good luck, folks!
:: comments to jospeh
hutchins
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