Prediction: Patriots 27, Colts 20
by Mike Krueger | Follow @FF_Today
Player Rankings and Projections
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Indianapolis Colts |
Rank |
Player |
Projections |
QB 3 |
Andrew Luck |
Pass: 260, 2 TD Rush: 20, 0 |
RB 4 |
Donald Brown |
Rush: 60, 1 TD Rec: 3-20, 0 |
RB 11 |
Trent Richardson |
Rush: 20, 0 TD Rec: 2-20, 0 |
WR 4 |
T.Y. Hilton |
Rec: 7-90, 1 TD |
WR 14 |
Da'Rick Rogers |
Rec: 4-50, 0 TD |
WR 21 |
LaVon Brazill |
Rec: 1-20, 0 TD |
TE 5 |
Coby Fleener |
Rec: 4-40, 1 TD |
K 4 |
Adam Vinatieri |
FG: 2/2 XP: 2/2 |
DEF 7 |
Defense / ST |
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New England Patriots |
Rank |
Player |
Projections |
QB 6 |
Tom Brady |
Pass: 280, 2 TD Rush: 0, 0 |
RB 6 |
Shane Vereen |
Rush: 20, 0 TD Rec: 8-60, 1 |
RB 7 |
LeGarrette Blount |
Rush: 50, 1 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
RB 13 |
Stevan Ridley |
Rush: 30, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
WR 3 |
Julian Edelman |
Rec: 10-90, 1 TD |
WR 12 |
Danny Amendola |
Rec: 5-50, 0 TD |
WR 18 |
Kenbrell Thompkins |
Rec: 2-30, 0 TD |
TE 9 |
Michael Hoomanawanui |
Rec: 2-20, 0 TD |
K 1 |
Stephen Gostkowski |
FG: 2/2 XP: 3/3 |
DEF 3 |
Defense / ST |
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Game Notes
TEAMS MEET for 4th time in postseason. Colts defeated Patriots, 38-34, in AFC Championship Game on 1/21/07. NE is 2-1 in 3 playoff meetings vs. Colts. Patriots lead all-time series (incl. playoffs) 47-29.
Colts Overcame 28-point deficit (38-10; 45-44) last week, 2nd-largest comeback win in NFL playoff history... Have won 3 of past 4 on road in Divisional Playoffs... Clinched AFC South title for 8th-time since 2003... Have made 11 postseason appearances since 2002, most in NFL... Last week, QB Andrew Luck (4) tied for 2nd-most TD passes in postseason game in franchise history (PEYTON MANNING, 5 on 1/4/04). Luck's 443 pass yards last week were 2nd most in playoff game in club annals (Manning, 458 on 1/9/05). Completed 17 of 24 passes (70.8 pct.) for 314 yards with 3 TDs vs. 2 INTs & 118.1 rating in 2nd-half last game. Will make 2nd career start vs. NE (1st in postseason). Has 8,196 career passing yards & is 1st player in NFL history with 8,000 passing yards in his 1st 2 seasons... RB Donald Brown totaled 102 scrimmage yards with 2 TDs (1 rush, 1 rec.) last week. Had career-high 8 TDs (6 rush, 2 receiving) in 2013 reg. season. RB Trent Richardson will play in 1st career game vs. NE... WR T.Y. Hilton had 13 catches last week, tied for 2nd-most receptions in postseason game in NFL history. His 224 receiving yards vs. KC, were 3rd-most receiving yards in playoff game all-time. Had career-best in catches (82) & receiving yards (1,083) in 2013. Hilton is 6th player in NFL history to register 10 100-yard receiving games in the 1st 2 seasons of a career... TE Coby Fleener posted 5 catches for 46 yards with TD vs. Chiefs last week. Fleener had career-highs in catches (52), receiving yards (608) & TDs (4) this season... LB Robert Mathis has 5.5 career postseason sacks, 2nd-most by Colt since 1982 (DWIGHT FREENEY, 9). Mathis (111 career; 19.5 in 2013) has most sacks in career by Colt & in single-season since 1982. Has 5 career sacks vs. NE (all regular season). LB Jerrell Freeman led team with 126 tackles in 2013. Ranked 2nd on team with career-best 5.5 sacks... S Antoine Bethea has 4 career postseason INTs. Posted team-best 9 tackles last week. Has 3 career INTs vs. Patriots (all reg. season). S LaRon Landry has 2 INTs in 2 career postseason games... CB Darius Butler was selected in 2nd round by NE in 2009 NFL Draft. Butler has 4 INTs in each of past 2 seasons. Led team with 15 passes defensed. CB Vontae Davis has 2 career INTs vs. NE... K Adam Vinatieri owns NFL-postseason record in made FGs (49) & points (205). Spent 10 seasons with Patriots (1996-2005)... Club had 1 player selected to 2014 Pro Bowl (LB Mathis).
Patriots With win, Patriots will advance to 3rd straight AFC Championship Game... Club is 14-4 (.778) at home in postseason, 2nd-best all-time (min. 10 games)... Patriots are 10-6 (.625) in Divisional Playoffs... Posted 8-0 record at home in 2013... NE is 2-0 all-time at home in postseason vs. Colts... Head coach BILL BELICHICK & QB Tom Brady (17) have most postseason wins by QB-head coach duo... Belichick (18) has 3rd-most playoff wins all-time, trailing only HOFers TOM LANDRY (20) & DON SHULA (19)... Brady's 17 postseason wins are most playoffs wins by QB in NFL history. Brady has most completions (553), attempts (887) & passing yards (5,949) in NFL playoff history. Brady (42) needs 3 TD passes to surpass BRETT FAVRE (44) for 2nd-most postseason TD passes all-time. Has 17-7 (.708) playoff record, 3rd-best postseason record as starting QB in NFL history (min. 15 starts). Brady is 11-3 (.786) as starter at home in postseason. Has 11 division titles, most by starting QB in NFL history. Brady has 10-4 (.714) record vs. Ind. (incl. playoffs) with 27 TDs vs. 12 INTs & 98.8 rating... In Week 17, RB LeGarrette Blount totaled 334 yards (189 rush, 145 KR), most in game by Patriot in franchise history. Joined LE SEAN MC COY as only players in NFL to register at least 180 rushing yards & 2 rushing TDs in game this season. Has 4 rush TDs in past 2 games. Rushed for 127 yards with TD in only career meeting vs. Ind. (w/ TB on 10/3/11). RB Shane Vereen had 5 catches for 83 yards (16.6 avg.) with 2 TDs in Div. playoffs last year (vs. Hou.)... WR Julian Edelman (105) joined TROY BROWN & WES WELKER as only Patriots to have 100+ receptions in season. Posted 1st season of career with 1,000 receiving yards (1,056). WR Danny Amendola will play in 1st career postseason game... DE Chandler Jones had career-high 11.5 sacks in 2013... LB DON'T'A HIGHTOWER had team-best 97 tackles this season... DT CHRIS JONES led all AFC rookies with 6 sacks... CB Aqib Talib led team with 13 passes defensed. CB Logan Ryan led NFL rookies with 5 INTs... S Devin McCourty has 1 career INT vs. Colts... Club had 4 players selected to 2014 Pro Bowl (QB Brady, G LOGAN MANKINS, CB Talib, WR MATTHEW SLATER).
Results and Schedule
Indianapolis Colts |
Week |
Date |
Opp |
H/A |
Score |
Dif |
1 |
2013-09-08 |
OAK |
H |
W 21-17 |
+4 |
2 |
2013-09-15 |
MIA |
H |
L 20-24 |
-4 |
3 |
2013-09-22 |
SF |
A |
W 27-7 |
+20 |
4 |
2013-09-29 |
JAC |
A |
W 37-3 |
+34 |
5 |
2013-10-06 |
SEA |
H |
W 34-28 |
+6 |
6 |
2013-10-14 |
SD |
A |
L 9-19 |
-10 |
7 |
2013-10-20 |
DEN |
H |
W 39-33 |
+6 |
8 |
|
Bye |
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|
9 |
2013-11-03 |
HOU |
A |
W 27-24 |
+3 |
10 |
2013-11-10 |
STL |
H |
L 8-38 |
-30 |
11 |
2013-11-14 |
TEN |
A |
W 30-27 |
+3 |
12 |
2013-11-24 |
ARI |
A |
L 11-40 |
-29 |
13 |
2013-12-01 |
TEN |
H |
W 22-14 |
+8 |
14 |
2013-12-08 |
CIN |
A |
L 28-42 |
-14 |
15 |
2013-12-15 |
HOU |
H |
W 25-3 |
+22 |
16 |
2013-12-22 |
KC |
A |
W 23-7 |
+16 |
17 |
2013-12-29 |
JAC |
H |
W 30-10 |
+20 |
WC |
2014-01-04 |
KC |
H |
W 45-44 |
+1 |
DP |
2014-01-11 |
NE |
A |
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New England Patriots |
Week |
Date |
Opp |
H/A |
Score |
Dif |
1 |
2013-09-08 |
BUF |
A |
W 23-21 |
+2 |
2 |
2013-09-12 |
NYJ |
H |
W 13-10 |
+3 |
3 |
2013-09-22 |
TB |
H |
W 23-3 |
+20 |
4 |
2013-09-29 |
ATL |
A |
W 30-23 |
+7 |
5 |
2013-10-06 |
CIN |
A |
L 6-13 |
-7 |
6 |
2013-10-13 |
NO |
H |
W 30-27 |
+3 |
7 |
2013-10-20 |
NYJ |
A |
L 27-30 |
-3 |
8 |
2013-10-27 |
MIA |
H |
W 27-17 |
+10 |
9 |
2013-11-03 |
PIT |
H |
W 55-31 |
+24 |
10 |
|
Bye |
|
|
|
11 |
2013-11-18 |
CAR |
A |
L 20-24 |
-4 |
12 |
2013-11-24 |
DEN |
H |
W 34-31 |
+3 |
13 |
2013-12-01 |
HOU |
A |
W 34-31 |
+3 |
14 |
2013-12-08 |
CLE |
H |
W 27-26 |
+1 |
15 |
2013-12-15 |
MIA |
A |
L 20-24 |
-4 |
16 |
2013-12-22 |
BAL |
A |
W 41-7 |
+34 |
17 |
2013-12-29 |
BUF |
H |
W 34-20 |
+14 |
WC |
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Bye |
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DP |
2014-01-11 |
IND |
H |
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Injury Report
Indianapolis Colts |
Questionable |
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (hamstring)
|
Probable |
SS LaRon Landry (head)
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IR |
TE Dwayne Allen (hip, 9/18/2013) ILB Pat Angerer (knee, 12/17/2013) RB Vick Ballard (knee, 9/13/2013) RB Ahmad Bradshaw (neck, 10/9/2013) LB Mario Harvey (undisclosed, 12/3/2013) DL Montori Hughes (knee, 12/24/2013) DE Fili Moala (knee, 1/6/2014) OLB Lawrence Sidbury Jr. (shoulder, 8/25/2013) CB Greg Toler (groin, 1/6/2014) WR Reggie Wayne (knee, 10/22/2013)
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Offense Stats Comparison
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IND Offense |
NE Offense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points for |
24.5 |
32.3 |
23.4 |
NE |
Rushing yards |
99.8 |
110.5 |
116.8 |
NE |
Rushing yards per attempt |
4.09 |
4.47 |
4.26 |
NE |
Completion % |
61.7% |
63.3% |
61.2% |
NE |
Passing yards |
217.5 |
301.0 |
228.9 |
NE |
Passing yards per completion |
9.68 |
10.93 |
10.71 |
NE |
Passing yards per attempt |
5.97 |
6.92 |
6.56 |
NE |
Interceptions |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
IND |
Fumbles lost |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
IND |
Sacks allowed |
1.0 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
IND |
3rd down conversions |
34.9% |
40.5% |
38.3% |
NE |
4th down conversions |
50.0% |
50.0% |
50.5% |
- |
Time of possession |
28:56 |
32:19 |
30:22 |
NE |
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Defense Stats Comparison
|
IND Defense |
NE Defense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points against |
17.8 |
25.3 |
23.4 |
IND |
Rushing yards |
134.3 |
129.8 |
116.8 |
NE |
Rushing yards per attempt |
4.57 |
4.75 |
4.26 |
IND |
Completion % |
60.3% |
58.3% |
61.2% |
NE |
Passing yards |
220.5 |
253.5 |
228.9 |
IND |
Passing yards per completion |
9.79 |
12.06 |
10.71 |
IND |
Passing yards per attempt |
5.90 |
7.03 |
6.56 |
IND |
INT return |
1.3 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
IND |
Fumble recoveries |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
- |
Sacks |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
- |
3rd down conversions |
35.9% |
41.5% |
38.3% |
IND |
4th down conversions |
66.7% |
11.1% |
50.5% |
NE |
Time of possession |
31:04 |
28:57 |
30:22 |
NE |
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Special Teams Stats Comparison
|
IND |
NE |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Yards per punt return |
11.1 |
8.3 |
9.5 |
IND |
Yards per kick return |
23.2 |
26.4 |
23.1 |
NE |
Yards allowed per punt return |
12.4 |
5.3 |
9.5 |
NE |
Yards allowed per kick return |
27.2 |
21.8 |
23.1 |
NE |
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Misc Stats Comparison
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IND |
NE |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Penalties |
4.8 |
4.0 |
5.9 |
NE |
Penalty yards |
41.0 |
27.5 |
50.2 |
NE |
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Note: Team statistics are shown as the average per game
through Weeks 12 to 17 of the 2013 season after deducting the best
and worst value from the data set. The exception is yards per rush attempt, completion %, yards per
pass completion, yards per pass attempt, 3rd and 4th down conversions, special teams and the NFL averages, which are each calculated based on
totals through Weeks 12 to 17 with no adjustment.
Weather
Team vs. Team History
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots |
Season |
Week |
Date |
Vis |
Home |
Score |
Winner |
2000 |
6 |
2000-10-08 |
IND |
NE |
16-24 |
NE |
2000 |
8 |
2000-10-22 |
NE |
IND |
23-30 |
IND |
2001 |
3 |
2001-09-30 |
IND |
NE |
13-44 |
NE |
2001 |
6 |
2001-10-21 |
NE |
IND |
38-17 |
NE |
2003 |
13 |
2003-11-30 |
NE |
IND |
38-34 |
NE |
2004 |
1 |
2004-09-09 |
IND |
NE |
24-27 |
NE |
2004 |
DP |
2005-01-16 |
IND |
NE |
3-20 |
NE |
2005 |
9 |
2005-11-07 |
IND |
NE |
40-21 |
IND |
2006 |
9 |
2006-11-05 |
IND |
NE |
27-20 |
IND |
2006 |
CF |
2007-01-21 |
NE |
IND |
34-38 |
IND |
2007 |
9 |
2007-11-04 |
NE |
IND |
24-20 |
NE |
2008 |
9 |
2008-11-02 |
NE |
IND |
15-18 |
IND |
2009 |
10 |
2009-11-15 |
NE |
IND |
34-35 |
IND |
2010 |
11 |
2010-11-21 |
IND |
NE |
28-31 |
NE |
2011 |
13 |
2011-12-04 |
IND |
NE |
24-31 |
NE |
2012 |
11 |
2012-11-18 |
IND |
NE |
24-59 |
NE |
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Note: Only playoff games from the 2004 to 2010 seasons are included in the team vs. team history. Playoff games from seasons prior to 2004 are not currently included in the database. DP = Divisional Playoff CF = Conference Final
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