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Prediction: Patriots 27, Colts 20
by Mike Krueger | Follow @FF_Today

Player Rankings and Projections

Indianapolis Colts
Rank  Player Projections
 QB 3 Andrew Luck Pass: 260, 2 TD Rush: 20, 0
RB 4 Donald Brown Rush: 60, 1 TD Rec: 3-20, 0
RB 11 Trent Richardson Rush: 20, 0 TD Rec: 2-20, 0
WR 4 T.Y. Hilton Rec: 7-90, 1 TD
WR 14 Da'Rick Rogers Rec: 4-50, 0 TD
WR 21 LaVon Brazill Rec: 1-20, 0 TD
TE 5 Coby Fleener Rec: 4-40, 1 TD
K 4 Adam Vinatieri FG: 2/2 XP: 2/2
DEF 7 Defense / ST  
 
New England Patriots
Rank  Player Projections
 QB 6 Tom Brady Pass: 280, 2 TD Rush: 0, 0
RB 6 Shane Vereen Rush: 20, 0 TD Rec: 8-60, 1
RB 7 LeGarrette Blount Rush: 50, 1 TD Rec: 0-0, 0
RB 13 Stevan Ridley Rush: 30, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0
WR 3 Julian Edelman Rec: 10-90, 1 TD
WR 12 Danny Amendola Rec: 5-50, 0 TD
WR 18 Kenbrell Thompkins Rec: 2-30, 0 TD
TE 9 Michael Hoomanawanui Rec: 2-20, 0 TD
K 1 Stephen Gostkowski FG: 2/2 XP: 3/3
DEF 3 Defense / ST  

Game Notes TEAMS MEET for 4th time in postseason. Colts defeated Patriots, 38-34, in AFC Championship Game on 1/21/07. NE is 2-1 in 3 playoff meetings vs. Colts. Patriots lead all-time series (incl. playoffs) 47-29.

Colts Overcame 28-point deficit (38-10; 45-44) last week, 2nd-largest comeback win in NFL playoff history... Have won 3 of past 4 on road in Divisional Playoffs... Clinched AFC South title for 8th-time since 2003... Have made 11 postseason appearances since 2002, most in NFL... Last week, QB Andrew Luck (4) tied for 2nd-most TD passes in postseason game in franchise history (PEYTON MANNING, 5 on 1/4/04). Luck's 443 pass yards last week were 2nd most in playoff game in club annals (Manning, 458 on 1/9/05). Completed 17 of 24 passes (70.8 pct.) for 314 yards with 3 TDs vs. 2 INTs & 118.1 rating in 2nd-half last game. Will make 2nd career start vs. NE (1st in postseason). Has 8,196 career passing yards & is 1st player in NFL history with 8,000 passing yards in his 1st 2 seasons... RB Donald Brown totaled 102 scrimmage yards with 2 TDs (1 rush, 1 rec.) last week. Had career-high 8 TDs (6 rush, 2 receiving) in 2013 reg. season. RB Trent Richardson will play in 1st career game vs. NE... WR T.Y. Hilton had 13 catches last week, tied for 2nd-most receptions in postseason game in NFL history. His 224 receiving yards vs. KC, were 3rd-most receiving yards in playoff game all-time. Had career-best in catches (82) & receiving yards (1,083) in 2013. Hilton is 6th player in NFL history to register 10 100-yard receiving games in the 1st 2 seasons of a career... TE Coby Fleener posted 5 catches for 46 yards with TD vs. Chiefs last week. Fleener had career-highs in catches (52), receiving yards (608) & TDs (4) this season... LB Robert Mathis has 5.5 career postseason sacks, 2nd-most by Colt since 1982 (DWIGHT FREENEY, 9). Mathis (111 career; 19.5 in 2013) has most sacks in career by Colt & in single-season since 1982. Has 5 career sacks vs. NE (all regular season). LB Jerrell Freeman led team with 126 tackles in 2013. Ranked 2nd on team with career-best 5.5 sacks... S Antoine Bethea has 4 career postseason INTs. Posted team-best 9 tackles last week. Has 3 career INTs vs. Patriots (all reg. season). S LaRon Landry has 2 INTs in 2 career postseason games... CB Darius Butler was selected in 2nd round by NE in 2009 NFL Draft. Butler has 4 INTs in each of past 2 seasons. Led team with 15 passes defensed. CB Vontae Davis has 2 career INTs vs. NE... K Adam Vinatieri owns NFL-postseason record in made FGs (49) & points (205). Spent 10 seasons with Patriots (1996-2005)... Club had 1 player selected to 2014 Pro Bowl (LB Mathis).

Patriots With win, Patriots will advance to 3rd straight AFC Championship Game... Club is 14-4 (.778) at home in postseason, 2nd-best all-time (min. 10 games)... Patriots are 10-6 (.625) in Divisional Playoffs... Posted 8-0 record at home in 2013... NE is 2-0 all-time at home in postseason vs. Colts... Head coach BILL BELICHICK & QB Tom Brady (17) have most postseason wins by QB-head coach duo... Belichick (18) has 3rd-most playoff wins all-time, trailing only HOFers TOM LANDRY (20) & DON SHULA (19)... Brady's 17 postseason wins are most playoffs wins by QB in NFL history. Brady has most completions (553), attempts (887) & passing yards (5,949) in NFL playoff history. Brady (42) needs 3 TD passes to surpass BRETT FAVRE (44) for 2nd-most postseason TD passes all-time. Has 17-7 (.708) playoff record, 3rd-best postseason record as starting QB in NFL history (min. 15 starts). Brady is 11-3 (.786) as starter at home in postseason. Has 11 division titles, most by starting QB in NFL history. Brady has 10-4 (.714) record vs. Ind. (incl. playoffs) with 27 TDs vs. 12 INTs & 98.8 rating... In Week 17, RB LeGarrette Blount totaled 334 yards (189 rush, 145 KR), most in game by Patriot in franchise history. Joined LE SEAN MC COY as only players in NFL to register at least 180 rushing yards & 2 rushing TDs in game this season. Has 4 rush TDs in past 2 games. Rushed for 127 yards with TD in only career meeting vs. Ind. (w/ TB on 10/3/11). RB Shane Vereen had 5 catches for 83 yards (16.6 avg.) with 2 TDs in Div. playoffs last year (vs. Hou.)... WR Julian Edelman (105) joined TROY BROWN & WES WELKER as only Patriots to have 100+ receptions in season. Posted 1st season of career with 1,000 receiving yards (1,056). WR Danny Amendola will play in 1st career postseason game... DE Chandler Jones had career-high 11.5 sacks in 2013... LB DON'T'A HIGHTOWER had team-best 97 tackles this season... DT CHRIS JONES led all AFC rookies with 6 sacks... CB Aqib Talib led team with 13 passes defensed. CB Logan Ryan led NFL rookies with 5 INTs... S Devin McCourty has 1 career INT vs. Colts... Club had 4 players selected to 2014 Pro Bowl (QB Brady, G LOGAN MANKINS, CB Talib, WR MATTHEW SLATER).


Results and Schedule

Indianapolis Colts
Week Date Opp H/A Score Dif
1 2013-09-08 OAK H W 21-17 +4
2 2013-09-15 MIA H L 20-24 -4
3 2013-09-22 SF A W 27-7 +20
4 2013-09-29 JAC A W 37-3 +34
5 2013-10-06 SEA H W 34-28 +6
6 2013-10-14 SD A L 9-19 -10
7 2013-10-20 DEN H W 39-33 +6
8   Bye      
9 2013-11-03 HOU A W 27-24 +3
10 2013-11-10 STL H L 8-38 -30
11 2013-11-14 TEN A W 30-27 +3
12 2013-11-24 ARI A L 11-40 -29
13 2013-12-01 TEN H W 22-14 +8
14 2013-12-08 CIN A L 28-42 -14
15 2013-12-15 HOU H W 25-3 +22
16 2013-12-22 KC A W 23-7 +16
17 2013-12-29 JAC H W 30-10 +20
WC 2014-01-04 KC H W 45-44 +1
DP 2014-01-11 NE A    
   

New England Patriots
Week Date Opp H/A Score Dif
1 2013-09-08 BUF A W 23-21 +2
2 2013-09-12 NYJ H W 13-10 +3
3 2013-09-22 TB H W 23-3 +20
4 2013-09-29 ATL A W 30-23 +7
5 2013-10-06 CIN A L 6-13 -7
6 2013-10-13 NO H W 30-27 +3
7 2013-10-20 NYJ A L 27-30 -3
8 2013-10-27 MIA H W 27-17 +10
9 2013-11-03 PIT H W 55-31 +24
10   Bye      
11 2013-11-18 CAR A L 20-24 -4
12 2013-11-24 DEN H W 34-31 +3
13 2013-12-01 HOU A W 34-31 +3
14 2013-12-08 CLE H W 27-26 +1
15 2013-12-15 MIA A L 20-24 -4
16 2013-12-22 BAL A W 41-7 +34
17 2013-12-29 BUF H W 34-20 +14
WC   Bye      
DP 2014-01-11 IND H    

Injury Report

Indianapolis Colts
Questionable  WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (hamstring)
Probable  SS LaRon Landry (head)
IR  TE Dwayne Allen (hip, 9/18/2013)
 ILB Pat Angerer (knee, 12/17/2013)
 RB Vick Ballard (knee, 9/13/2013)
 RB Ahmad Bradshaw (neck, 10/9/2013)
 LB Mario Harvey (undisclosed, 12/3/2013)
 DL Montori Hughes (knee, 12/24/2013)
 DE Fili Moala (knee, 1/6/2014)
 OLB Lawrence Sidbury Jr. (shoulder, 8/25/2013)
 CB Greg Toler (groin, 1/6/2014)
 WR Reggie Wayne (knee, 10/22/2013)
   

New England Patriots
Questionable  CB Alfonzo Dennard (shoulder)
 WR Aaron Dobson (foot)
 FS Devin McCourty (concussion)
Probable  WR Danny Amendola (groin)
 CB Kyle Arrington (groin)
 QB Tom Brady (shoulder)
 MLB Dane Fletcher (groin)
 SS Steve Gregory (knee)
 WR Kenbrell Thompkins (hip)
 RB Shane Vereen (groin)
IR  WR Josh Boyce (hip, 1/2/2014)
 TE Rob Gronkowski (knee, 12/9/2013)
 DT Tommy Kelly (knee, 11/2/2013)
 WLB Jerod Mayo (shoulder, 10/16/2013)
 MLB Brandon Spikes (knee, 1/6/2014)
 DT Vince Wilfork (achilles-tendon, 10/3/2013)
 SS Adrian Wilson (hamstring, 8/31/2013)

Offense Stats Comparison

  IND
 Offense 
NE
 Offense 
NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Points for 24.5 32.3 23.4 NE
Rushing yards 99.8 110.5 116.8 NE
Rushing yards per attempt 4.09 4.47 4.26 NE
Completion % 61.7% 63.3% 61.2% NE
Passing yards 217.5 301.0 228.9 NE
Passing yards per completion 9.68 10.93 10.71 NE
Passing yards per attempt 5.97 6.92 6.56 NE
Interceptions 0.5 0.8 1.0 IND
Fumbles lost 0.0 0.3 0.6 IND
Sacks allowed 1.0 1.8 2.4 IND
3rd down conversions 34.9% 40.5% 38.3% NE
4th down conversions 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% -
Time of possession 28:56 32:19 30:22 NE
  Defense Stats Comparison

  IND
 Defense 
NE
 Defense 
NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Points against 17.8 25.3 23.4 IND
Rushing yards 134.3 129.8 116.8 NE
Rushing yards per attempt 4.57 4.75 4.26 IND
Completion % 60.3% 58.3% 61.2% NE
Passing yards 220.5 253.5 228.9 IND
Passing yards per completion 9.79 12.06 10.71 IND
Passing yards per attempt 5.90 7.03 6.56 IND
INT return 1.3 0.5 1.0 IND
Fumble recoveries 0.5 0.5 0.6 -
Sacks 2.8 2.8 2.4 -
3rd down conversions 35.9% 41.5% 38.3% IND
4th down conversions 66.7% 11.1% 50.5% NE
Time of possession 31:04 28:57 30:22 NE

Special Teams Stats Comparison

   IND   NE  NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Yards per punt return 11.1 8.3 9.5 IND
Yards per kick return 23.2 26.4 23.1 NE
Yards allowed per punt return 12.4 5.3 9.5 NE
Yards allowed per kick return 27.2 21.8 23.1 NE
  Misc Stats Comparison

   IND   NE  NFL
 Avg. 
 Adv. 
Penalties 4.8 4.0 5.9 NE
Penalty yards 41.0 27.5 50.2 NE

Note: Team statistics are shown as the average per game through Weeks 12 to 17 of the 2013 season after deducting the best and worst value from the data set. The exception is yards per rush attempt, completion %, yards per pass completion, yards per pass attempt, 3rd and 4th down conversions, special teams and the NFL averages, which are each calculated based on totals through Weeks 12 to 17 with no adjustment.

Weather


Team vs. Team History

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
 Season   Week   Date   Vis   Home   Score   Winner 
2000 6 2000-10-08 IND NE 16-24 NE
2000 8 2000-10-22 NE IND 23-30 IND
2001 3 2001-09-30 IND NE 13-44 NE
2001 6 2001-10-21 NE IND 38-17 NE
2003 13 2003-11-30 NE IND 38-34 NE
2004 1 2004-09-09 IND NE 24-27 NE
2004 DP 2005-01-16 IND NE 3-20 NE
2005 9 2005-11-07 IND NE 40-21 IND
2006 9 2006-11-05 IND NE 27-20 IND
2006 CF 2007-01-21 NE IND 34-38 IND
2007 9 2007-11-04 NE IND 24-20 NE
2008 9 2008-11-02 NE IND 15-18 IND
2009 10 2009-11-15 NE IND 34-35 IND
2010 11 2010-11-21 IND NE 28-31 NE
2011 13 2011-12-04 IND NE 24-31 NE
2012 11 2012-11-18 IND NE 24-59 NE

Note: Only playoff games from the 2004 to 2010 seasons are included in the team vs. team history. Playoff games from seasons prior to 2004 are not currently included in the database. DP = Divisional Playoff CF = Conference Final