Carolina (3rd Seed) @ New England (1st Seed) Sun 6:25 pm
Let's start by taking a look at the Carolina Panthers. Considered by many to be the surprise team of this Super Bowl, the Panthers have earned some respect by winning their last two-playoff games on the road to get here. Not exactly an easy task, but the Panthers have gotten it done with the same style and game plan that got them to the playoffs in the first place.

Their defense is deserving of as much attention as they are getting this week. The front line is a virtual Pro Bowl team of players, and they have done an excellent job of providing their offense with field position and opportunities to score points. They have racked up an impressive 10 sacks and 8 interceptions thus far in the postseason. In the defensive backfield, Ricky Manning has become the savior of the playoffs for the Panthers, gathering 4 interceptions thus far. A very impressive effort when you consider that many teams considered Manning to be the weak link in the defensive backfield for the Panthers (thus all the passes going his way). Mike Minter has also provided some great plays in the backfield, and along with his teammates, the Panthers are continuing the defensive production they enjoyed during the season. During the regular season, the Cats were allowing about 190 yards passing a game (nice number), and they have kept opponents to about 200 yards a game in the playoffs (consider the opponents, namely St. Louis, and that is worthy of note). Against the run, the Cats have improved their 108 yards a game during the regular season to just 91 yards a game in the playoffs. However, you could argue that the opponents they have beaten weren't trying to run the ball: Philly was without Brian Westbrook and they gave up on the rush attack very early in the game, the Rams gave the ball to Marshall Faulk only 19 times and a large majority of those carries came it the first half, and Dallas isn't exactly known for their rushing dominance.

On the offensive side of the ball, Panther fans have to be happy with the performance of Jake Delhomme thus far. He hasn't put up mind-blowing numbers, but he's been solid and he has avoided the turnover bug. You can't really ask for much more at this time of the year. By the way, in case you didn't know, here's crazy coincidence #1: Jake Delhomme was Kurt Warner's backup QB during their stint in the NFL Europe, and if you don't remember I'd remind you that Kurt Warner is the QB Tom Brady beat for his first ring two years ago. So, essentially, Tom Brady and the Pats are working their way through the depth chart of the Amsterdam Admirals to win some nice jewelry. Anyway, Delhomme has impressed me since I first saw him come in as a relief thrower for Aaron Brooks during his time in New Orleans. This has been his first year as a starter, and he wasn't even the starting QB in their first game. Here's some numbers that I really like: during the first 8 games of the Panthers' season, Delhomme threw only 6 completions for 20 yards or more, and only 2 completions for 30 yards or more, on first down. This was meant to "ease" Jake into the his role and to employ the power running of Stephen Davis as the strong point it has been all season. However, after a while, opponents picked up on the trend and started to defend against it. Since then, including the playoffs, Jake has completed 23 passes for 20 yards or more, and 10 completions for 30 yards or more. His confidence has gained momentum and he's become the emotional and tactical leader of this team. It showed the most two weeks ago as the Panthers used the arm of Delhomme to get the chains moving in key situations. Although Davis and DeShaun Foster were healthy and running well (Davis still seemed a bit hampered, but he had his power going), when it came down to crunch time for the Panthers, Jake was a smooth operator in the pocket and he used both Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad effectively.

Overall, the Panthers are solid and worthy of their current position. They have the best free agent performer of the year in Stephen Davis (and Jake Delhomme for that matter, and don't forget Ricky Proehl, the perennial Super Bowl attendee), they have a great defense, and they have a QB that may be at the starting steps of a long and promising career. Their reward: go to Houston and face the best defense in football.

I'm going to start by saying that although I really like Tom Brady, and I believe he's a solid NFL QB, I'm not ready to brand him as the new Joe Montana. If he wins his second ring, that is very impressive, and for that (as well as his on-field demeanor) he may deserve some comparisons to the guy that may be the best QB the NFL has ever seen. However, let's not mold the cast for his bust in Canton just yet.

This will be a great test for Brady as he will be facing a very tough defensive front from Carolina. If you say the offensive line of the Patriots has been the unsung hero of their season, I'll buy you a Guinness and cigar, 'cause you are correct. Did you see Brady versus the Colts? The guy had all day to pick and choose his receivers. Dwight Freeney might as well have been in Maui making tee times. The Pats' O-line will have a much tougher task this week as Julius Peppers, Mike Rucker, Brentson Buckner, Kris Jenkins, and Dan Morgan will be headhunting all day for Brady. I believe the offensive line for the Pats will be up to the challenge, but don't expect a total domination like they put up in the Conference Championships.

One might speculate that the key to this game may be the rushing attack for the Patriots. It's an interesting notion. When you consider the Patriots came out of the regular season ranked 27th in the NFL for rushing offense, averaging just a smidge over 100 yards a game on the ground, it would seem foolish to believe the Pats would run the ball well versus a defensive unit like Carolina. However, here's another perspective. In the playoffs, New England hasn't necessarily jumped their rushing numbers up dramatically: they averaged almost exactly the same number of attempts, the same average yards per carry, and the same yards per game as they did during the regular season. I would suggest the Pats have run the ball more effectively, however, by WHEN they have run. Belichick gets tons of credit for his defensive game plans (rightfully so), but his offensive schemes are just as tough and just as varied. They often run on passing downs, they often pass on rushing downs, and they rarely show any form of tendency at all for either. Antowain Smith is also playing in his hometown of Houston this year, and he's proven to be a solid postseason rusher thus far. He'll get some cracks with the ball, but it's no secret the Pats will need Tom Brady to win the game.

You cannot understate the accuracy and control Brady demonstrated week in and out. He puts the ball in spots that will not allow the defender to make a play. If you break down a game tape of Brady, you will be shocked at his ball placement. He never leaves a ball short, he rarely if ever leaves a ball behind a receiver on a crossing pattern, he doesn't string his receivers up in the air for errand passes. He's just extremely consistent, especially down the field. I don't expect Ricky Manning's name will be uttered as much as in recent weeks on Feb. 1.

Then, you must consider the New England defense. I will say this, and you can laugh if you like, but I would put this New England defense up against that Tampa defense that everyone was comparing to the '85 Bears last year, and I'd put my money on New England every time. They are loaded with talent at every position, and they just don't make too many mistakes. They get great QB pressure, they cover as well as any team (and if you bring me that "they were mugging the Colts" crap, I'll serve it back with the angst of John McEnroe; I saw PLENTY of passes hitting the hands of those Indy receivers, I saw plenty of chances for the Colts to make plays, and if the game is a little too rough for ya' you can always join the local VFW Flag Football league), and they take advantage of their opponents' mistakes. It only takes one or two interceptions, maybe a fumble recovery, for the Pats to jump on you with a quick 2 TD lead. Ty Law picked off 3 Peyton Manning passes, and I don't remember ANY of those plays being made during contact. They were all made by Law's instincts and ability to get to the ball. He'll be huge this weekend too, as will Rodney Harrison.

I would suggest the MVP for Carolina thus far, at least offensively, has been Steve Smith. I know Davis can run, and he's lead the team for plenty of late wins. I know Jake Delhomme's QB rating is sky high in the fourth quarter, and I know he's gotten plenty of close wins under his belt this year. I'd suggest that Smith was the go-to guy more often than not in those close games. I don't see how Smith can do it against a New England backfield that is so saturated with playmakers. You have to admit, even if you are a Panther fan, that the cards are so stacked against the Cats this weekend. You may say, "Bryan, you are a Grade A idiot. The Cats will run the ball all day with Davis." I will reply, "Yeah? Funny, the Pats have held opposing teams to less than 90 yards rushing a game this year, and I don't see that trend suddenly changing. By the way, the Pats have allowed a grand total of 2 runs for 20 yards or greater this year, so I don't see Davis or Foster breaking a big TD run." Davis will be healthy, and he could have a respectable performance, but he won't win this game alone. "So let Jake eat them up with Smith and company. He's got just as much accuracy and he's going to take his shots." I'd reply, "I hope so. The Pats lead the NFL with 29 regular season interceptions this year, 5 of which were returned for TD's (not to mention the large total that turned into offensive TD's due to great field position). Also, they have picked up another 5 picks in the playoffs." Then, you could say, "Bryan, you suck. The Panthers haven't allowed a single passing TD thus far in the playoffs, and they lead the playoffs in sacks (10)." Good point, but would you bet the farm on Philly's offensive line (or receivers for that matter)? How about against the Cowboys?

I respect the Panthers' numbers defensively, but I feel this is a whole new experience this weekend. The step up from Philly to New England is tremendous in my book. Maybe I think too highly of the Pats. Maybe I should give the Panthers more credit. OK, let's call the teams a wash. Let's get down to brass tax: you've just given the premier football mind, Bill Belichick, the guy everyone in the NFL refers to as "genius," TWO WHOLE WEEKS to game plan for this one game, this one opponent, this one occasion. I'll put the house on THAT any day of the week. I do think this will be a great game, but I see the Patriots covering the spread late (yep, I broke my own rule and found out the spread before I wrote this; hey, it's 2 weeks of coverage! You think I'm going to stop watching Sportscenter and listening to the radio for 2 weeks?) and pulling away late. Brady has the poise, the Pats' D has everything plus some, and Belichick has the game plan. That's all I need to know. I know I called the Panthers the "team of destiny" last week (sorry Jack, but I am going to play the political flop on this one!), but destiny isn't going to be enough this year. Give the trophy to the Pats, and let the Chowd's enjoy it! It's been a great season, and I'm already starting to plan for the next.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Patriot Defense, Tom Brady, Steve Smith, David Givens, Daniel Graham, Adam Vinatieri, John Kasay

2nd String: Stephen Davis, Carolina Defense, Jake Delhomme, Bethel Johnson, Antowain Smith, DeShaun Foster, Deion Branch, Muhsin Muhammad, Kevin Faulk, Troy Brown, Kris Mangum, Ricky Proehl

Prediction: Panthers 14, Patriots 24