Carolina (3rd Seed) @ St. Louis (2nd Seed) Sat. 4:30pm
The Panthers performance last week has to be ranked as one of their best games ever as a franchise. They dominated a Cowboys team (one that I picked to win, just to be fair) in every aspect of the game. We knew the Boys were unlikely to rush with any effectiveness, and they came through, only picking up 72 total yards on the ground. However, the front line of the Panthers' defense is to be commended for the job they did versus Quincy Carter: only 132 yards passing allowed, with 1 interception and 3 sacks. Julius Peppers picked up that sack despite having what many were calling a disappointing year. Peppers, along with his cohorts (especially Kris Jenkins, who picked up 1 of the 3 sacks), kept Carter under wraps and uneasy for the entire game. Even NFL.com is calling the game a "near perfect" effort, and with the win the Panthers have returned to the form they will need to continue their postseason success. The offense has to be rated as the biggest surprise in my book. Facing the league's top-rated defense following the post season, the Cats were pumping on all cylinders as both the rushing and passing games found success. Jake Delhomme, in his first playoff start, passed for 273 yards and 1 TD with 0 picks. Both Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed served as weapons, picking up 135 yds/1 TD and 103 yds respectively. By the way, it was great for all of us old school TV fans to see Smith bring a worthy end zone celebration to the stage, successfully impersonating Fred Sanford having "the big one" (if you don't know, do yourself a favor and catch "Sanford and Son" every now and then on Nick at Night; Lamont is one of the most underrated TV character sidekicks in the history of television, but that's just my opinion). Stephen Davis ran for 104 yards and 1 TD against a Dallas D that was allowing only 89 rush yards a game coming into the playoffs. The Panthers took advantage of numerous mistakes by Dallas, and the bruising style of Davis eventually wore on the front four to make the game dominating performance for the entire Panther offense. They'll need all of that momentum and more this weekend as they go to the surf and turf home of the Rams. The Rams were undefeated at home this season, beating quality opponents like Green Bay, Baltimore, Minnesota, Seattle, and Cincy on the home turf. The Panthers picked up 3 of their 5 losses on the road this year, so things aren't looking so good for the Panthers thus far. The big difference at home for the Rams is when they run the ball. The Rams picked up a total of 1,496 rushing yards this season: 60% of that (888 yards) came on the turf at home. Also worthy of note, the Rams scored 19 rushing TD's this season, and 13 of those came at home. Marshall Faulk has been much more productive in the home confines as well. In the 11 games Faulk played this season, 5 of those were at home, and he scored 8 of his 10 rushing TD's in those home games. Everyone knows the Rams love to pass, and they've done it with equal success no matter where they have played (3,961 yards total; 1,970 at home, 1,991 on the road). But if the Panthers want to compete in this game, they will need a strong defensive effort against the run (which they didn't need versus the Cowboys, as Troy Hambrick is not even close to Marshall Faulk's level of ability and skill).

There is some good news for Panther fans. The Rams have given up some big rushing yards at home this year. Jamal Lewis ran for 111 and a TD at the dome, Michael Bennett ran for 98 yards and Daunte Culpepper added 70 when Minnesota came to St. Lou, and Shaun Alexander ran up 126 yards and 1 TD in the game versus Seattle. At least this facet of the Rams' defense seems to bode well for Stephen Davis, the driving force behind the Carolina offense. In fact, one might say the Rams' defense has been a little suspect this season at home. They've allowed opponents an average of 211 yards passing when they've visited the Rams this season. However, you'll also notice the Rams have gotten at least 1 interception in all 8 of those home games as well. In fact, the Rams picked up a total of 10 interceptions against their opponents at home this year. They may give up some yards, but they make you take some chances and they capitalize on mistakes as well as any team in the NFL. The Rams picked up a total of 24 interceptions this year, tied for the 4th most in the NFL this season. The big number to look at is the yards gained on those interceptions: 505 yards total. That is a very respectable number, and if you want to quantify it further, think about this: the Rams THREW 23 total interceptions this season (only 1 less than gained), but those were returned for only 300 total yards (205 yard difference). Also, the Rams have turned 3 of those interceptions into TD's, while allowing only 1 interception to be returned for a score by their opponents. That is what I like to refer to as positive defensive production. The Rams will let you take some shots, but they better be on the mark or you will pay. If Carolina is going to compete offensively in this game, they will need to score at least 21 points, and that may be a conservative estimate. The Rams score, on average, about 28 points a game, and if the Panthers are lucky enough to get the same production from their defense this week (against the Rams? Ummm, no) then 21 points could be enough. Well, let's come back to reality: the Rams actually scored an average of about 34 points a game when they played at home (a whole TD difference, and thus the undefeated record in the home dome). I don't see how the Panthers are going to score 34 points against this Rams team. Stephen Davis should have a respectable game once again, but he's not going to score more than half of those points. The Rams are too tough against the pass to let Delhomme hook up with Smith, Muhammed, and Proehl all day. Adam Archuletta and Aeneas Williams (and we should mention Travis Fisher and Jerametrius Butler as well) will be all over the backfield, and if they can keep the Panthers from turning up their air assault (they will), then the Panthers won't have enough to turn this game into an upset. Bulger will throw up much better numbers than Quincy Carter: he's a better pure passer, he has better weapons, and he has Marshall Faulk. This team is much more competent and much more solid opponent offensively, and Carolina won't dominate this game like the previous week. It's been a nice season, and Carolina is definitely on the ladder up in the NFL, but this is not their year. Simply put, the Rams have won 14 straight at home, and I don't think this Carolina team is the one to stop the streak.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Marc Bulger, Stephen Davis, Rams Defense, Jeff Wilkens, Steve Smith, John Kasay

2nd String: Isaac Bruce, Jake Delhomme, Dane Looker, Carolina Defense, Ricky Proehl, DeShaun Foster, Muhsin Muhammed, Kris Mangum, Brandon Maneamula, Lamar Gordon

Prediction: Panthers 17, Rams 32

It's amazing, I bet I'm the only jerk in the sports media biz to go this long without mentioning Pete Rose this week. I'll say this: if you are a true football fan, you wonder why Rose isn't in the H of F yet. Take a quick glance at the NFL Hall of Fame roster and you'll see that football doesn't sit atop it's high horse like baseball when it comes to questioning the "character" of it's members. There are plenty of guys in the NFL H of F that are shady at best, but that is why football is the best sport there is: they recognize their players as just that, players (not role models or models for the perfect human to live by). Why perch your morals and image on a post you don't have any foundation for supporting? Baseball is not a game of complete honor, but they sure love to think they are and shove it in our faces. No professional sport is, and for Bud Selig and the rest of the powers that be in baseball to say otherwise is beyond stupid, not to mention contradictory and dishonest. Back to the matter at hand. Oh yeah, New England's rip through the playoffs. I found something interesting in my research this week. Only four teams in the history of the NFL have put together 12 game winning streaks in one season: all four of those teams went to the Super Bowl, and 3 of them won it ('72 Dolphins, '85 Bears, and '98 Broncos). The Patriots have won their last 12 games to finish the regular season, and thus have to be considered the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. It is amazing that this team can play so well without a sign of a respectable running game. I am one of the biggest proponents of the value of the rushing attack, and I cannot explain how this team continues to win without one. I will say this: they do a nice job of relieving their problems by employing a well-planned, well-executed short passing game. The TE's are key contributors to this team, and Daniel Graham may have put up his breakout season. He still battles with some dropped balls, but the kid made some clutch grabs for TD's this year and has become a favorite end zone target for Tom Brady. He may not always put up big yards, but he's become a competent guy to throw short passes to in key situations. Another player that has stepped up for New England has been rookie WR David Givens. Givens came in 2nd for the Pats for receiving yards behind Deion Branch, but he led the team in receiving TD's with 6, including 3 TD's in his last 2 games. The reason we mention these guys is that the Pats are going to be facing the #1 rushing defense in the NFL. The Titans held the NFL's leading rusher, Jamal Lewis, to his worst game of the year last week (only 35 yards). Well, this week, they will have the tough task of stopping Kevin Faulk, Antowain Smith, and Mike Cloud. Actually, jokes aside, Smith has put together some nice games in recent weeks. He won't be a factor this week, and neither will Faulk or Cloud. The Pats are going to have to pass the ball to win this one, and they wouldn't want it any other way. Tom Brady has enjoyed a spectacular season as the focal point of the New England offense. This week he'll take his shots at one of the less potent passing defensive units in football. Tennessee gave up about 225 yds/passing a game on average during the season, and last week they allowed Baltimore to throw well at key times in the game. If Anthony Wright can take advantage of the Titans' pass D, I know Brady will do fine. Funny thing: take a look at the box score from the matchup between these two during the regular season. Brady had a nice game: 219 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT's. But Antowain Smith ran for 80 yards and a TD, while Mike Cloud ran for 73 yds and 2 TD's. Maybe the Pats will run the ball! I wouldn't bet on it. I'd bet on the Pats throwing early and often, and a few long connections could give their defense enough breathing room to win. The Pats are the best defensive unit left in the playoffs, and that alone makes them favorites to do well. The arm and leadership of Brady puts them in the top spot. Tennessee was lucky to get out of Baltimore last week (remember, Orlando Brown's dumb penalty put the Titans in a position to have their AARP kicker clear a long game-winner by about the length of your average #2 pencil), but they will have a tougher time running this week as the Patriots are likely to bring the house. I think the Pats' D will be too much, I think the Titans' D won't have quite enough, and I'll give the Pats the edge in another great game.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Patriot Defense, Tom Brady, Steve McNair (Questionable), David Givens, Daniel Graham, Adam Vinatieri, Gary Anderson, Titan Defense

2nd String: Derrick Mason, Deion Branch, Antowain Smith, Justin McCareins, Bethel Johnson, Eddie George (Questionable), Chris Brown, Kevin Faulk, Drew Bennett, Troy Brown, Christian Fauria, Tyrone Calico, Erron Kinney, Frank Wycheck

Prediction: Titans 13, Patriots 24

Indianapolis (3rd Seed) @ Kansas City (2nd Seed) Sun 1pm
The Colts put up the whipping of the playoffs thus far last week, taking Denver to the cleaners. What a huge turnaround from just a month ago! Peyton Manning was unstoppable as he threw a close to perfect game. 377 yards and 5 TD's???!!! If you are in a keeper league, and you were having doubts about holding onto Manning, he may have swayed your opinion just a bit. Indy didn't even have to run too often to make that game a wrap. If they feasted on the Denver defense, what will they do to KC this week? One has to wonder. The KC D has been horrible in recent weeks: when the Chiefs have played teams with a winning record (which they did only 6 times this year), they have given up an average of 30 points a game (about 9 points higher than their total average allowed during the regular season). This unit has not done consistently well when they have been faced with a true challenge. In fact, they have lost their last 3 games versus opponents with winning records! I'd say the Colts may be the best team this unit will have faced yet this year, and it's not likely they will suddenly improve. The Colts are well rounded: they can pass, they can run, they can pass deep, they can pass short, they can run rough shot to wear you down, they can run in bursts and pick up yards, and they have Pro Bowlers at every position. The Chiefs gave up 146 yds/rushing a game plus 210 yds/passing a game. This will allow the Colts to play their dream game plan: variety. They can run, they can pass, they can take shots downfield, they can adjust on the fly to fit whatever is working. The KC defense has some players and they will get some QB pressure (unlike Denver last week), but it's hard to plan on too much from 'em. They won't stop Manning to Harrison, and I don't see how they will stop Edge at all. I'll go out on another limb for fun too: I bet the Colts kill the Chiefs on the short passing game. Edge is one of the best short receivers at RB in the NFL, and he can become a holy terror if you give him (a) a head start, and (b) you put him beyond the line of scrimmage. Edge will be a huge factor in this game, and he will not only give the Colts their biggest opportunity for yards, he will open up the entire offensive field for Manning to find Harrison and Reggie Wayne. I have no reason to believe the KC defense has suddenly gotten considerably better during their bye week, and thus I have to believe the Colts are more than capable of succeeding offensively.

By the way, did you notice the NFL signed Beyonce Knowles to sing the National Anthem at the Super Bowl this year? It's like they've been reading my stuff! Though, I'd have to guess, their vision of that event is probably much different than mine. Anyway, I went out there and boldly stated that the Indy offense is going to give the KC defense big problems. Really went out there on that one. It's not going to surprise anyone that this game is likely to be a scoring sprint. The Colts have more offensive weapons than the Dirty Dozen, and the Chiefs are bringing the guy who just broke the single season record for TD's scored in Priest Holmes. The Indy defense is the big wild card in this game. For instance, in the second to last week of the regular season, the Denver Broncos destroyed the Colts and ran all over the field like antelopes on the savannah in Africa. The Colts had no defense to speak of in that game. However, this last week, the Colts received a stellar effort from their defense. They held Jake Plummer to 181 yards and picked him off twice, while also shoring up the rush D to hold Clinton Portis to only 68 yards on 17 carries (and keeping him out of the end zone). It's no surprise they did well versus the pass: during the regular season, the Colts finished with the third best pass D in the land, allowing opponents only 176 passing yds/game. They have a great defensive backfield that can cover receivers and make plays. However, the Colts have really struggled against the run, allowing opponents an average of about 124 rush yds/game (plus 19 rushing TD's allowed, also a bad number). Although they did well versus Denver, it is hard to imagine they will stop Holmes. They may keep him respectable, and to Holmes' standards that would mean he scores only twice on about 80 yards. The Chiefs bring a solid all-around offense as well. Trent Green has proven to be a more than capable QB, leading his team to big wins on his arm on several occasions. Tony Gonzalez is still the best TE in the NFL, and he's capable of putting up big numbers on any team out there. Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton have become more productive as the season progressed, and they give Green some true threats down the field. The question then becomes, can Indy stop the passing of Green while holding Holmes to a respectable effort? I'm not ready to put my money on Indy's D just yet, but I do believe they will be inspired by last week's win over Denver. This Indy team has just won their first home playoff game since 1970. Peyton Manning was just named co-MVP (and, by the way, he's coming into restricted free agency this off season; think any teams will be making offers for Indy to match? Are you kidding? NFL owners will bid on Manning like the tabloids were bidding on the Paris Hilton tapes.). It was shown this week in an ESPN poll that of all the games this week, KC is the heavy favorite to loss at home this weekend. I have to agree. Their defense is not only suspect, it is out right bad. This Chiefs' defensive unit is not as good as the one in Denver, and Denver was sent to school, detention, and summer school by Manning last week. I'd say Peyton is out to prove his worth, and he's out to show us all he's the best QB in the NFL, and he's out to show us he can lead this team to contend with anyone. KC is a nice team, but they are not nearly as good as their record indicates. Their offense may find some success, and betting against Holmes is like betting on one-month-old beef: you won't win. But will Holmes be enough to keep this game in KC's favor? I doubt it. I don't think Green will find the receivers, I think Indy's D will come up big for the second week in a row, and I think Manning, Edge, and Marvin will continue to be Manning, Edge, and Marvin. I'll take the Colts, and it won't be as close as you might guess. Arrowhead is a tough place to play (the Chiefs have won 13 straight at home), but the Colts will handle themselves just fine. 13 turns out to be as unlucky as it sounds for KC this weekend, as they take the loss and make their tee times earlier than hoped this year.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Peyton Manning, Priest Holmes, Edge James, Marvin Harrison, Trent Green, Mike Vanderjagt, Colt Defense, Tony Gonzalez, Marcus Pollard, Reggie Wayne

2nd String: Brandon Stokley, Morten Andersen, Johnnie Morton, Eddie Kennison, Dante Hall, Marc Boerigter, KC Defense

Prediction: Colts 34, Chiefs 24

Green Bay (4th Seed) @ Philadelphia (1st Seed) Sun 4:45 pm
Have you seen the commercial with Brett Favre as the Monday Quarterback? Great ad, but let's be honest for a moment. If life were perfect, we could all sign endorsement deals of worth. Think about it: what would be more fitting than to see some REAL cops doing ads for, say, Dunkin Doughnuts, or Krispy Kreme, or Winchell's? Who better to trust than the experts? Then, the cops could make the money they deserve, and the universe would be balanced. Listen, if I have to watch a guy like Ditka push meds for my "manhood," then I can watch cops pushing doughnuts. Anyway, let's bring Favre back to earth from the heavens he's recently been posted on and assume the Packers are actually not "Angels in the Outfield." I'm going to assume, for the sake of sanity and this preview, that Brett Favre's passes are not being guided by the hands of anything out of the ordinary (by the way, why not give the WR's some credit? Those are amazing catches as much as they are "miracles"). I don't think Coach Mike Sherman is kidding when he says he hopes they are getting some "help from above." They are going to need it: teams that have reached this same exact position in their season (2nd round of the playoffs, 4th Seed, facing a road game versus the 1st Seed) have posted a record of 0 & 14. So, let's put Green Bay in that hole to start: no one has ever, in the history of the NFL, won this game as an upset. Never. They have played extremely well in recent weeks. The win over Seattle was very impressive, at least offensively, for the Packers. They won a high scoring match against a team that would normally pick up the win in that situation. It'd also be accurate to say the Pack got some "help," as the Seattle receivers couldn't catch the easiest of passes, and the dropped TD for Koren Robinson was like icing on the cake of his season this year (one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this year, as Robinson dropped a bushel full of passes this year). They can't count on the Eagles making those mistakes. Philly has put together a brilliant season, and their Coach Andy Reid deserves as much credit as anyone. Reid has put together some amazingly productive game plans for his team this year, and despite a ton of injuries and the lack of consistent production on offense, the Eagles have won 10 of their last 11 games. They don't make too many mistakes. If the Packers want to keep this game in reach, they need to change up their recent approach and run the ball a bit more. The vulnerable spot for the solid Eagles' defense this year has been the rushing D: the unit has allowed opponent to post an average of about 130 rush yds/game this year, including 12 runs of 20+ yards. In their most recent loss, the Eagles allowed 49er RB Kevan Barlow to run rampant all over the field, picking up 154 yards and 1 TD. The Niners controlled the pace of the game, kept Donovan McNabb off the field, and capitalized on McNabb's mistakes (2 interceptions). It's not a secret: any team anywhere can win at any time with this formula. It's not like you have to watch the tape to see how the Niners won! Give the ball to Ahman Green and let him do his thing. In case I haven't convinced you, take a look at the last time these two teams hooked up (Week 10): Green ran for 192 yards and 1 TD (as well as 32 receiving yards) in a 17-14 loss by Green Bay. That game was at Lambeau by the way. This time the Packers have to do it in Philly, but the game plan should remain the same. Get the ball to Green, whether it's on handoffs or short passes, and let him take his shots at this bad rushing defense. It can only help: rushing the ball helps control the game clock, it helps control the game pace, it keeps Philly's offense on the side lines, and it will help open up some passing opportunities for Favre later in the game. If the Packers cannot keep Green in productive runs to start the game, it could get out of hand.

I'd start the Eagles' offensive preview by noting the loss of RB Brian Westbrook. I have become very impressed with Westbrook's game in recent weeks, and I'm sure he is the future at RB for this team. His loss will be big for the offense: Westbrook had been one of the more productive offensive player for the Eagles all season long, and he gave the Eagles a true threat to break a long run. I believe Correll Buckhalter and Duce Staley will be able to make up for the loss in this game, but as the playoffs continue, assuming the Eagles continue with them, the loss of Westbrook will become more significant. In this game, the Eagles need to try to get the passing game going. Green Bay showed their usually face against the Seahawks last week on defense: the Hawks threw for over 300 yards and were able to move the chains through the air all day long. The backfield for the Packers is capable of making some big plays: Al Harris picked up the game winner for the Pack last week, and along with McKenzie and Sharper the Packers are able to pick up some turnovers. However, they are also capable of giving up some big plays. The Pack gave up an average of about 212 yards passing/game during the regular season. They also allowed about little over 105 yards rushing/game, and both of these are going to be a problem versus Donovan McNabb. Early in the season, when McNabb was struggling, he seemed reluctant to let loose with this legs and run the ball. He is no longer afraid to do so, and 2 of his 3 rushing TD's have come in his last 3 games. He's also passing with much better accuracy in recent weeks: after starting the season with only 4 passing TD's in his first 8 games, he's come on with 7 passing TD's in his last 4 games (including 3 versus both Dallas and Washington, both respectable pass defenses). McNabb's real strength has been his ability to spread the ball around. Westbrook had the most receiving TD's with only 4, and 8 other guys on this team have at least 1 receiving TD. Although none of the receivers have big standout numbers, Todd Pinkston seems to have emerged in recent weeks as target #1. He's made some spectacular catches recently, and he seems to have earned McNabb's trust when it comes to going deep. They are going to come out against the Packers this weekend the same way they always come out at home: a little throwing, a little running, and defense. As I stated last week, I'm a huge believer of defensive dominance as the path to success in the postseason (then Baltimore and Dallas both lost, oh well). Maybe the Packers are a team of destiny (if I were to be honest, I'd tell you the Packers were my preseason pick to win it all). However, I'm not one to call the bookie and bet on the basis of "evangelic intervention." This will be a great game, and the Packers should keep it interesting. However, I don't expect them to be the first team in history to win in this situation. Philly is a great TEAM, and their overall team effort will be top notch. Ahman Green is likely to be the only consistent offense the Packers will find on Sunday. If the Eagles can find some open receivers and score early, the Packers are likely to turn to the passing game. I feel this plays to the Eagles' strengths. With Troy Vincent, Brian Dawkins, and Michael Lewis in the backfield, I doubt you will see Javon Walker pull down too many TD passes amongst double and triple coverage. This will be a close one, but give the edge to the home team. The Packers' defense is not worthy of too much trust, the Eagles are playing too well to lose, and the end of the "run lead by divinity" will end this weekend.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Ahman Green, Donovan McNabb, Philly Defense, Brett Favre, Correll Buckhalter, David Akers, Todd Pinkston, Ryan Longwell

2nd String: Javon Walker, Bubba Franks, Deuce Staley, James Thrash, Freddie Mitchell, LJ Smith, Chad Lewis, Donald Driver, Robert Ferguson, Najeh Davenport, Wesley Walls, Packer Defense

Prediction: Packers 20, Eagles 27