Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




 Log In  | Sign Up  |  Contact      






Game Previews - Week 5, 2003



By Bryan Douglass | 10/2/03

WEEK 5
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST Sunday, 4:00 PM EST
MIN at ATL SD at JAX
CIN at BUF DET at SF
OAK at CHI WAS at PHI
ARI at DAL  
SEA at GB  
DEN at KC Sunday - 8:30 PM EST
TEN at NE CLE at PIT
MIA at NYG Monday - 9:00 PM EST
NO at CAR IND at TB

Bye Week: St. Louis, NY Jets, Baltimore, Houston
Last Week's Projections: (10-4) 71.4%
Season's Projections: (46-14) 76.6%

Minnesota (4-0) at Atlanta (1-3), 1:00 PM
Let's start with a tale of two teams: the Vikings are vying for consideration as the NFL's best team, and the Falcons are putting in their bid as the worst. The defense for the Falcons has been horrid: giving up 150 yards rushing a game (with the most rushing TD's allowed in the NFL thus far, 6) as well as 230 yards passing a game (despite 10 sacks!). Without Keith Brookings, it is hard to imagine just how bad this defense could perform. Now is NOT a good time to run into one of the NFL's best offenses. The Vikings have almost all of their tools working: they can pass, they can run, and they can kick. Randy Moss, though he still has a habit of taking certain plays off, has been more motivated and more productive thus far than in recent years. Daunte Culpepper has been solid, despite his constant battle to avoid fumbles. This, in large part, is due to the improved offensive line, which has also allowed for huge strides in the running game. Moe Williams has been enjoying his best year as a pro, and Onterrio Smith has gotten more snaps in the last two games (and has taken advantage, scoring his first NFL TD last week). It is hard to find an argument supporting a low scoring game for Minnesota, much less another win!

The only way the Vikings haven't scored is on defense, and that could change this week. The 49ers may not have thrown to Terrell Owens enough, but when they did the Vikings did a great job of covering the possibility. Corey Chavous seems to be improving with every game, and the Falcons don't have the passing game to properly challenge any NFL team anyway. The Falcons' offense misses Mike Vick like kids at fat camp miss Hostess. They are incapable of putting together a consistent, respectable offensive attack. Doug Johnson is a free agent at the end of the year, and his stocking has fallen off the charts. Peerless Price has no hope of seeing the ball: Johnson can't go deep and the double teams don't leave him open anyway. The only player putting up numbers on this team is Alge Crumpler. The TE has come into his own as an offensive receiver: he has great hands and is spectacular after the catch. Too bad it is totally impossible for a tight end to make up for (a) no running game, (b) a total lack of defense, and (c) the loss of an offensive stud like Mike Vick. This game will be almost as ugly as last week's loss to Carolina, or the loss the week before to Tampa Bay, or the Week 2 loss to Washington (when the Falcons officially flushed their hopes in the second half after building a substantial lead in the first).

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Gus Frerotte, Randy Moss, Aaron Elling, Moe Williams

2nd String: Onterrio Smith, Jay Feeley, Alge Crumpler, Minnesota Defense

Prediction: Vikes 37, Falcons 13

Cincinnati (1-3) at Buffalo (2-2), 1:00 PM
What has happened to the Buffalo Bills? This team looked ready to dominate the NFL after Weeks 1 & 2. In the last two weeks, they have played well below their potential. The offense seems to have suffered due to the loss of Travis Henry, though it is hard to figure how: Henry was a good scorer, but had earned very few yards. The inability to get the passing game to flow as it did in the first two weeks is a mystery. I may be off, but Buffalo fans may agree with this: point the finger at the coach. The offensive line has not done quite as good at protecting Bledsoe, but the Bills seem reluctant to go deep to Moulds, and Moulds is the player that butters their bread. He's the most underrated receiver in the NFL, and he can go deep on any and every one. This seemed to click back into the offensive scheme late in the Philly game: did anyone else notice how easily the Bills moved downfield on those pass-laden drives? Though the passing game is key, it will be helped by the return of Travis Henry (at time of print, it looks like Henry will be available for the game). Henry is a good rushing threat, and it is obvious the Bills' coaches seem to open the air attack up when Henry is on the field (WHY only then, who knows!). Cincy's defense has improved, but they are still having troubles getting quarterback pressure (only 4 sacks thus far this year, one of the lowest sack totals in the NFL). Without that pressure, Bledsoe should have time to get the ball to Moulds for deeper yards and, as a result, the Bills should look more like the team from Weeks 1 & 2.

On the other side of the ball, Marvin Lewis has done some great things with the Cincy offense. Despite the inconsistent productivity of Corey Dillon (and health for that matter), the Bengals have become a passing team. Chad Johnson is one of, if not the, best young WR's in the game. He's fast becoming a weekly fantasy starter, and his teammates (like Peter Warrick) are reaping the benefits. Unfortunately for the Bengals, the Bills are team that thrives on pass defense. They are currently the third best passing defense in the NFL, allowing just under 158 passing yards a game and only 2 passing TD's thus far. Takeo Spikes has been the best defensive free agent signee this year: he can rush the passer, he can stay back and read the play, and he has a real knack for getting his hands on the ball. At print time, Corey Dillon's status does not look good, and if he cannot play the Bengals' will not have the tools necessary to exploit the Bills' defensive weaknesses. Without Dillon, the Bills can cover Johnson and Warrick, they can keep Kitna on his heels all day, and they should return to early season form.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Drew Bledsoe, Eric Moulds, Travis Henry(Questionable), Chad Johnson

2nd String: Jon Kitna, Bobby Shaw, Josh Reed, Peter Warrick, Buffalo Defense

Prediction: Bengals 13, Bills 24

Oakland (2-2) at Chicago (0-3), 1:00 PM
Here is a barnburner! The Raiders have been a disappointment. Can someone explain this to me: how does San Diego come into Oakland with Eric Parker and Kassim Osgood as their primary receivers, and throw for 187 yards and put up 31 points in a game the Raiders SHOULD have lost? A win is a win, and the Raider fans will take it, but if you leave that game with anything but trepidation, you are lying to yourself. This team is in trouble: the scene with Gannon yelling at every coach that will listen during Week 3 says it all. This team seems unable to pass consistently. Tim Brown finally had a game worthy of his talents last week, and he deserved it: he's been "quietly" yelling for the ball all year, and though he's not as open as he would like us all to believe, he is capable of making the tough catch. Gannon needs to go to his guy more often. Not only did Tim Brown re-emerge last week, but Doug Jolley found some catches as well. Both of these players are capable of being top targets, they just need to get the looks. Charlie Garner has played well, and he should be able to rack up some nice yards against the struggling Bears' defense. The Bears are more than vulnerable to large running plays (Ahman Green AVERAGED, I said AVERAGED, 9.3 yards a carry this last week) and if Garner can get his carries and make good, the passing game could take off from there.

The Bears did show they can put up some points this last week: 23 points is nothing shocking, unless you've been fortunate enough to see the previous Bears' games. Kordell Stewart had a better game. Too bad they aren't playing college ball, or that option offense could really do some damage. He is throwing the ball a bit better, and the running game seems to show flashes here in there (I was beginning to believe A-Train didn't HAVE a run of over 10 yards in him, then he broke off a 67 yard TD run). The Raiders are most vulnerable to a sustained running game: they give up an average of about 154 rushing yards a game, but they've only given up 3 runs for over 20 yards. This style of play suits A-Train best, and it could allow him to find his rhythm, wear on the defensive line, and break a run or two. IF the Bears can keep from getting behind early, IF the Bears can give serious consideration to the running game, and IF the Bears can keep the Raiders' pass attack respectable, they could make a run at the upset. It's a long shot, but expect the Bears to keep this one close.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Charlie Garner, Doug Jolley, Sebastian Janikowski

2nd String: Rich Gannon, Tim Brown, Kordell Stewart, Anthony Thomas, Desmond Clark

Prediction: Raiders 17, Bears 13

Arizona (1-3) at Dallas (2-1), 1:00 PM
This game is ripe with side stories: Emmitt returns to Dallas, Parcells versus Emmitt, team on the rise versus team going nowhere. Ok, maybe its not so exciting to the average fan, but this game could be an all-out pass feast: both these teams have thrived on the passing of their QB's. Surprisingly, the Cowboys are the 6th best passing offense so far this year, averaging 236 passing yards a game. For Quincy Carter, a QB all but left for dead, the turnaround is amazing. The weapons have been there, but Carter's mental game was always lacking. Parcells seems to have turned this kid around, and he's throwing with maximum confidence. Although breaking those passes into the end zone has been a little elusive, they pass gets them downfield and set up an improving running game. Troy Hambrick had his best game last week, and the major difference is in the point of attack. Parcells had talked with Hambrick earlier in the week and it was decided to let Hambrick try something new: run between the tackles, attack the line of scrimmage, and don't rely so much on your "speed." Hambrick's production improved, and if he can keep this growth up, he may become a regular fantasy consideration. He'll be important this weekend, but he is likely to play second fiddle to Antonio Bryant and Joey Galloway. Zona is beyond weak in the defensive backfield, and look for Dallas to capitalize on the horrible numbers for the Card's pass defense (giving up an average of 225 yards a game, having given up 9 TD's so far this year through the air, and allowing opponents to complete an average of 62% of their passes).

Arizona's offensive strategy seems to be pretty simple: lets go out and try to pass for more yards and TD's than our opponent. This doesn't work too often, but they can make some games pretty interesting. Another apparent problem for the Cardinals is the venue: if they play at home, they seem to enjoy better production than on the road. Many gamblers looked at the 12-point spread in last week's game with St. Louis and jumped on the Cardinals. Then the Birds came out and laid an egg, appearing like a completely different team than the one that beat the Packers at home a week before. Emmitt is a shadow of his old self: he still has some yards and TD's in him, but not nearly enough to carry the team. Anquan Boldin is the real standout on this team: the rookie wideout has shown great skills and consistency. Bryant Johnson has only been in the lineup a couple of weeks, but his potential is there as well. These two young bucks will need there game, as Dallas' vulnerability to the pass is the best point of attack. Dallas' potential for good pass D is there, but they have under performed and suffered through some rough injuries. They can't get pressure on the QB, and Jeff Blake can kill you if you give him time to find the open man. Don't expect Emmitt to do too much versus his old team, and the other RB in the game could be the difference. Both teams will pass plenty, both could pass effectively, but only Dallas will run the ball. Give 'em the edge for that (and the fact Cundiff looks like he could kick it through the uprights from Sweden).

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Quincy Carter, Antonio Bryant, Anquan Boldin, Dallas Defense, Billy Cundiff, Jason Witten

2nd String: Troy Hambrick, Jeff Blake, Bryant Johnson, Joey Galloway

Prediction: Cardinals 17, Cowboys 23

Seattle (3-0) at Green Bay (2-2), 1:00 PM
Seattle returns from their bye week with a perfect record, all of their players in good standing (at least at time of print), and ready to attack a less-than-able defense. Matt Hasselback has enjoyed a great season thus far, despite a lack of big numbers (256 yards is his best game in Week 3, and he didn't break 200 in the other two) and also despite lead wideout Koren Robinson's lack of activity (he only has 151 receiving yards TOTAL thus far). Shaun Alexander has also been solid, and his performance this week will be the key to another Seahawks' victory. The Packer's defense isn't so good: they are giving up an average of about 118 yards a game (and when you consider they've played Arizona, Chicago, and Detroit, that number becomes GLARING). This team is RIPE for a nice RB like Alexander. They also give up a little less than 220 yards passing a game. Not so good, but Packer fans can say they have 8 sacks thus far so they should be able to pressure Hasselback. Only problem is the Hawks have a much better offensive line than, say, Chicago, Detroit, and Arizona! Let's put it in black & white: before this last week, the Bears had put up point totals of 7 points versus San Francisco (a BAD defense) and 13 points versus Minnesota (a better-than-average defense), and Green Bay gave up 23 to them.

The big player for the Pack this year has been Ahman Green. He's a major player, one of the NFL's best RB's. When he gets his carries, he can light up any team for good yards and scores. Seattle will make him public enemy number 1 for this game, and they will employ the same "bend but don't break" style they've used so far this year. Although the Seahawks give up an average of 90 rushing yards a game, they've only allowed one rushing TD and zero carries for 20 yards or more. You can run, but you won't get far. Seattle's pass defense isn't a NFL standout either: they give up about 227 yards a game, only have 4 sacks, and allow opponents to complete an average of about 60% of their passes. However, they have 7 interceptions. Ken Lucas (who?) & Marcus Trufant (Seattle's #1 pick) have done a great job on coverage, and they will give Brett Favre fits. Ahman Green will get his carries, but if he wants to get his yards (and he NEEDS to if Green Bay hopes to win), he'll be in for a fight: Seattle will play good coverage D with LB's spying on Green, letting him get his carries, but not letting him average 9.3 yards a carry (ie last week versus Chicago). The Pack defense isn't up to this challenge, and Seattle's offense is more than capable of taking full advantage.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Shaun Alexander, Koren Robinson, Matt Hasselback, Seattle Defense

2nd String: Ahman Green, Brett Favre, Darrell Jackson, Donald Driver

Prediction: Seahawks 28, Packers 13

Denver (4-0) at Kansas City (4-0), 1:00 PM
Want to hear the biggest lie in football reporting? When you hear reporters say, "Well, one thing Denver learned from that close call with Detroit is that they can win close games," or, "they can win without their best running back," or, "KC learned they can win against a tough defense." All lies. Know what they learned? Here is what Denver learned: their defense is vulnerable not only to the pass but also to a lack-luster running back like Shawn Bryson, if their kicker wasn't on they would lose to THE Detroit Lions, the passing game is just a little dependent on a real running threat, Mike Anderson is not the starting rusher for a reason (Portis would have torn up the Detroit defense), and Shannon Sharpe is possibly the best receiver the Broncos have ever had. Here is what Kansas City learned: thank god for Dante Hall, Priest Holmes may not be "stoppable" but is somewhat "containable," Tony Gonzalez is still the best receiver they have, their defense is for good but vulnerable to a good RB like Jamal Lewis (even when Lewis is the top target of the defense), and they better step it up a notch if they want to continue being referred to as "the NFL's best team." This game is going to be awesome! Both these teams have great running games. Both teams have good pass offenses. Both teams have better than average defensive units with some weaknesses that suit the opponents' strengths. Every week there are games that feature two teams that are evenly matched, but rarely are those teams both without a loss.

Here are the main reasons for my prediction Priest Holmes, the game is in Kansas City, and a gut feeling the Denver defense is a little overrated. Baltimore scoring 10 points versus KC last week is a pretty respectable number for the Chiefs' defense; Detroit scoring 16 versus Denver is not so respectable (not to mention the Denver offense, as loaded with talent as it is, only managed 20 points against what may be the worse defense in the NFL, with or without Portis). Arrowhead is one of the NFL's toughest battlegrounds for visiting teams. Denver can never count on an easy win in this venue. I don't know if there is a defense in the NFL (currently) that can stop Priest. Denver does have some hope: their defense may get both Darryl Gardner and Lee Flowers back this week. This could definitely help their squad. However, it seems like KC may have their game rolling. There is this small amount of worry in Denver: Jake could implode at any moment, Portis is playing a little soft, the defense is a little inconsistent. Not that KC doesn't have problems: you don't want to win too many games on a kickoff return. Here's the final stat I'll give you: Kansas City has racked up 10 interceptions already this season (second most in the NFL), compared to 4 for Denver.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Clinton Portis(Questionable), Kansas City Defense

2nd String: Trent Green, Jake Plummer, Ashlie Lelie, Shannon Sharpe

Prediction: Broncos 24, Chiefs 31

Tennessee (3-1) at New England (2-2), 1:00 PM
If you look over the box scores from the Titans season so far, you can come to one fairly obvious conclusion. Although they struggled a bit with the Raiders in Week 1, the big loss to Indy was the fault of the Colts' defense (which has also beaten up New Orleans and Jacksonville). This Titans' team is capable of big games, and Steve McNair is putting in his bid for the MVP trophy he feels he's been cheated out of all these years. The Patriot's defense is his next victim: the Pat's are riddled with injuries and struggling to keep teams at bay. Now, the New England defense has kept the number fairly respectable, especially versus the pass. So, if the Titans want to grab this game by the horns, their best bet is Eddie George on the ground. Eddie hasn't been a very strong fantasy player. He did put up 100 yards versus New Orleans two weeks ago, but that has been his strongest game yet. If he can't run all over the Saints, it's hard to believe he'll run wild on the Pats. Therefore, look for McNair to go airborne with the ball early and often. He's got his best receiver corps since he started in the NFL: Derrick Mason is pure money, Drew Bennett is looking better with every game, Tyrone Calico has got tons of potential, Justin McCareins has been much better than expected, & TE Erron Kinney has turned into a great receiver. Any of these guys can step up and be the man at any given time, and that is a problem for the Patriots depleted backfield.

New England has shown some signs of life on offense. Tom Brady has played well overall and has lead his team back to make some games very interesting (not to mention lighting up the Eagles, which may be easier done than said). Kevin Faulk has shown some strength as the starting RB. The problem for New England will be the Titans defense being so solid. They are a little weak versus the pass, but with Kearse and Carter healthy and kicking, every QB is one hit away from a trip to the ER. Brady will need his A game to give the Pats a chance. Brady has the arm to keep it close, but McNair and company are too solid, the Titans' defense is too fast and strong, and if Eddie George can find some productivity then the Titans should move on to 4 & 1.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Steve McNair, Titans Defense, Derrick Mason

2nd String: Erron Kinney, Tom Brady, Drew Bennett, Eddie George, Christian Fauria, Adam Vinatieri

Prediction: Titans 23, Patriots 18

Miami (2-1) at NY Giants (2-1), 1:00 PM
Two well-rested teams coming off their bye week, two teams at 2 & 1, two teams with little else in common besides these facts. The Giants are a team capable of big time offensive games. Kerry Collins, Amani Toomer, Ike Hilliard and company currently have the 4th best passing offense in the league, averaging 238 passing yards a game. Collins has thrown 6 TD's, only 2 interceptions, and been sacked only 5 times. They can throw. When Tiki holds on to the ball (he's battled some fumble problems for most of his career), he's been solid and even spectacular at times (he lit up Washington for 126 yards and the Rams for 146). They can get it going in a hurry, and Miami had better step it up or they will become victim #3. The Fins' rush defense is awesome thus far: #2 in the NFL, giving up an average of 63 yards rushing a game, and have yet to give up either a rushing TD or a single run of 20 yards or more. The pass defense is another story: giving up an average of 236 pass yards a game (6th worst in the NFL), and though they've given up only 2 passing TD's they have only 4 interceptions and 5 sacks (not good for a team with last year's sack leader, Jason Taylor). The QB pressure is going to have to be better this week for Miami: if you want to beat the Giants, you've got to rattle Collins. If he's allowed to get comfortable, he'll hook it up all day with Toomer and make the game seem 10 times longer for the opposing team.

On offense, the Fins are all about two players: Ricky Williams and Chris Chambers. Ricky carried the ball 42 times in Miami's last game, so he deserved the week off. He's one of the top 2 RB's in the league (you could argue for Jamal Lewis, but I'd rate 'em Holmes #1, Ricky #2, and Lewis #3 right now). Chris Chambers has been great in his time this year. He has great hands and know how to score. Unfortunately, he relies on Jay Fiedler to get him the ball. With Ricky Williams, all he does is take the handoff. He can do it out of the receiver role, but his best work is done from behind the line of scrimmage. He's going to have his work cut out for him this week: the Giants may give up an average of 90 yards rushing a game (which could translate into 120 yards for Ricky), but they have given up only 1 rushing TD this year, and only 1 run of 20 yards or greater. The points are going to have to come from Jay Fielder in this one: the Giants have the worst pass defensive ranking in the NFL, giving up over 310 yards passing a game (in the interest of fairness, they've played three pass heavy teams: Washington, Dallas, and the Rams). Here is the key to the Giants' pass defense: they may give up a ton of yards, but they've racked up 13 sacks (2nd best in the NFL) and given up only 3 passing TD's. Bend (a lot) but don't break, to an extreme! If they can get to Fiedler (and they can) and keep him rattled (and they will) and keep Chambers out of the end zone (they'll give it a good shot), then the Giants can keep Ricky respectable. Keeping the Dolphins to the ground game, they can score more than the Fins with the pass attack, and the Giants should find another win.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Amani Toomer, Chris Chambers, Ricky Williams, Jeremy Shockey, Kerry Collins, Giants Defense, Matt Bryant

2nd String: Randy McMichael, Ike Hilliard, Jay Fiedler

Prediction: Dolphins 14, Giants 23

New Orleans (1-3) at Carolina (3-0), 1:00 PM
The Saints are in trouble. They are struggling to win games, they are struggling to keep games from getting out of hand. Now, in fairness and to apologize to the Saints fan that emailed me this week (you know who you are), the Saints are battling a large number of injuries on defense right now. They are battling with a rag-tag group of defensive players that are having A LOT of trouble keeping teams out of the end zone, and it could end up costing Jim Haslett his job. It makes it tough for the entire team, but the offense has to be under some suspicion. Aaron Brooks, Joe Horn, Donte Stallworth, Jerome Pathon: this group is capable of better numbers (averaging 204 yards a game as a group, with just 5 passing TD's thus far). Deuce McAllister has kept up his end: he's the workhorse of the team and is doing his job. His job would be easier with a better passing game, and the entire team would be better if it spent more time on the field. Carolina won't make this easy, and they won't make the time the Saints' offense does spend on the field enjoyable. The Panthers have one of the best defensive units in the NFL right now. They worked Atlanta last week. They give up yards, no question, but they don't give up touchdowns. This is a problem for the Saints: not only will Carolina keep them out of the end zone, but the Saints are having trouble trying to get in the end zone anyway.

The Panthers are starting to put things together offensively too. Stephen Davis is a solid running game by himself, and has been the rock of this team thus far. Jake Delhomme has plenty of potential, and though his start has been a little rocky, his talent is showing through. He's not a fantasy stud, but he's a solid NFL starter with rising stock. His receivers are coming together nicely as well. Steve Smith is an awesome return man, and his skills as a receiver improve with every game. New Orleans will have a tough time again this week defensively. Carolina will continue to lean on Davis, running the ball and using the strong runs to set up passing attempts. Right now, the Panthers are all about defense, but the offense is improving and will get some good opportunities against the struggling Saints' D.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Panther Defense, Stephen Davis, Deuce McAllister

2nd String: Joe Horn, Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith

Prediction: Saints 10, Panthers 22

San Diego (0-4) at Jacksonville (0-4), 4:05 PM
What a heart breaker for Charger fans last week! They finally get a game in which Tomlinson controls the ball, runs for mad yards and scores a couple of TD's, and then they just flush it all away with horrible defense. Just horrible. The offense has started to show signs of life. Tomlinson, despite a lack of carries due to early point deficits, has become the league's third leading rusher. Drew Brees is throwing the ball well, despite the lack of effort from his best receiver (David Boston) and an under performing offensive line. They will need their best games again this week versus Jacksonville. The Jags have seen plenty of running attempts, but are only giving up an average of 87 yards rushing a game (they have given up 5 rushing TD's, not such a great number). Brees will have the best opportunity, as the Jags' pass defense is their weakness (giving up 223 yards a game, and have surrendered 8 passing TD's). Eric Parker has emerged as the team's most reliable receiver, but the other WR's are going to need to step up their production and will get some nice looks in this one. However, although the passing game could be the Jags' soft spot, expect another heavy dose of Tomlinson. The kid is the goods, and he can ring any team up for 100+ yards at any time.

The Bolts' defense is the real trouble with this team. They just allow too much scoring, and the Jags need to take advantage. Fred Taylor is the main weapon, and rightfully so. He's run well against all comers this year, he can catch the ball and do damage after the reception, and he's the best weapon for rookie QB Byron Leftwich (at time of print, Marc Brunell's status is still uncertain and Leftwich has taken the first string snaps in practice). No matter who throws the rock for Jacksonville, they will throw plenty: the Bolts have given up the majority of their scores to the passing game. However, the Jags should use a balanced attack: San Diego's defense is poor all around, giving up 150 rushing yards a game and 217 passing yards as well. Although the defense is poor, if Tomlinson can carry the team again and produce as he's capable, expect the game to go to the Bolts. It's a gamble, but the Bolts have to win sometime, and this game is a prime opportunity. Tomlinson is capable of carrying the ball 30+ times, controlling the clock, and keeping the Jags' suspect defense on the field. Expect Taylor to get his numbers, but give the edge to the young stud Tomlinson. He's that good.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: LaDainian Tomlinson, Fred Taylor, Drew Brees

2nd String: Byron Leftwich, Jimmy Smith, Eric Parker, David Boston

Prediction: Chargers 20, Jaguars 16

Detroit (1-3) at San Francisco (1-3), 4:15 PM
The Lions have a great passing game. Too bad they don't have the defense to match. They gave the Broncos, a solid NFL team, a real run for their money last week and almost pulled out a win. This team could upset almost anyone in the NFL this year, and its all due to Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers. The tandem has become one of the league's most potent scoring threats. Rogers can get open against anyone, Harrington can heave the rock as well as anyone in the NFL, and the two together make Detroit a viable scoring threat from anywhere on the field. The 49ers defense will have their hands full. Their numbers look ok, but considering their competition (those numbers are skewed by the first week's big win over Chicago) its fair to say this defense is not very tough. They are vulnerable to the long passing game, and if Detroit can protect Harrington and let him make plays, the Lions should score. Shawn Bryson has also emerged as the lead rusher for the Lions, and he has been able to keep teams on guard just enough to open up the passing game. He'll need another good effort this week, though he can't be expected to do too much. It's all about the pass for Detroit.

The 49ers are struggling to produce offensively. Terrell Owens' status for this game is in question: after two straight weeks for yelling fits and verbal attacks both on the sideline and in the media, there is talk that Owens may sit this one with a suspension. Don't believe it. This is the NFL, and winning rules over all. The 49ers have a golden opportunity to throw the ball in this game: Detroit's defense is just bad. Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow will have good chances to run (Detroit's rush defense is one of the NFL's worst, especially vulnerable to the big run), but the real threat for the Niners is the passing tandem of Garcia and Owens. Though they are not on good terms, expect them to go to the air early and often, testing the defense and stretching the field. Detroit gives up an average of over 250 passing yards a game, and if given his way Owens could rack up that many yards by himself. The Lions could keep this game close with Harrington and Rogers, but Garcia and Owens will counter with their Pro Bowl efforts and should finally gather a win.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Charles Rogers, Terrell Owens, Joey Harrington

2nd String: Garrison Hearst, Jeff Garcia, Jason Hanson, Mikhael Ricks

Prediction: Lions 24, 49ers 28

Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (1-2), 4:15 PM
The Redskins have to be one of the biggest surprises in the NFL. No one would have guessed they would be 4 & 0 at this point. Spurrier has changed his game plan: he runs the ball! Although the mixed game plan has helped, give Patrick Ramsey all the credit he deserves. He's one of the NFL's leading passers, and he's earned a great chemistry with receiving weapons Laveranues Coles and Rod Gardner. The three together give the Skins a viable scoring threat from all over the field. They can throw long, they can make plays on short passes, and they can eat up yards faster than you can spell Laveranues. The running tandem of Trung Candidate and Ladell Betts has been a good mix, and kept defenses honest enough to allow Ramsey and company to make plays. The Eagles' defense is definitely hurting: plagued with injuries, they are always vulnerable to a good passing game. Expect the Skins to take to the air again this week: Philly doesn't have a good enough back to cover both Coles and Gardner. The Eagles are giving up over 250 yards passing a game, and Washington will look to get to that number plus some.

On defense, the Redskins have struggled a bit, especially considering the vast amount of talent on the squad. Although they have kept the average pass yards respectable (207), they have struggled to keep pressure on the QB's and keep the scoring down. The Eagles will lean on Donovan McNabb again this week. He led them to their first win last week in a tough game with Buffalo, setting McNabb free on the ground to rush at will. The game plan won't change too much this week. The Eagles' rediscovered the importance of the running game last week: before the win, they had run 3 pass plays for every rush they had attempted. Not so last week, and it won't be so this week. The Eagles have to play a clock control game to keep their defense fresh and off the field. If the Redskins get their opportunities, they could eat this rag tag squad up in a hurry. The passing game is still struggling for the Eagles. McNabb still struggled to throw solid passes and hit open men last week, though he did improve. The pass is not McNabb's strong suit: he needs to use his size and speed to create on the run. Brian Westbrook was the leading rusher for the Eagles last week, but until he's able to do it for multiple games and prove his abilities, expect McNabb to be the leader of both the pass and rush, and that won't be enough to keep the Redskins' defense at bay. The passing game for the Skins is too solid, the defense for the Eagles is too battered, and the Skins should find another win this week.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Laveranues Coles, Patrick Ramsey, Donovan McNabb

2nd String: Redskin Defense, John Hall, Rod Gardner, David Akers

Prediction: Redskins 27, Eagles 19

Cleveland (1-3) at Pittsburgh (2-2), 8:30 PM
The Cleveland Browns are a team struggling to find their groove. They've lost starter Kelly Holcomb, but it must be nice to have Tim Couch on the sideline for relief. Couch played well last week, but he wasn't enough. The struggling running game, namely Willie Green, has been the real disappointment of this team. Green has yet to break 100 yards in a game, and much of this can be blamed on the poor play calling of the Browns. Many in the NFL have called the run attack of the Browns "predictable," and this is true. Pittsburgh is coming in off a tough loss to the Titans, and the Browns are likely to become their whipping boy. The Pitt D is tougher than they showed last week, and they will be all over Couch and Green this week. Pittsburgh loves to attack the QB, and this could spell trouble for the Browns. Porter, Gildon, and Bell are going to look to set up camp in the backfield, and this will cause major problems for both the pass and run attacks for Cleveland.

The offense for Pittsburgh is pretty potent. Maddox is the NFL's leading passer coming into the week, and with his receivers its no mystery how they do it. Burress has become a weekly fantasy starter, and his consistency is amazing. Hines Ward is playing like his usual self. The running game has seen good plays from both Amos Zereoue and Jerome Bettis, and the two together can give any team headaches. Although Maddox has battled with turnovers, he won't be deterred. The Browns do have a solid pass defense, but the best pass defenses in the league could fall victim to this Pro Bowl squad. The Steelers will go the air, they will go deep and short, they will pass on any down, and they will be successful. Look for the Steelers to have a nice mixed game plan, but the passing of Maddox and the receiving of Burress and Ward will be too much for the Browns. Though this is normally a great game, expect the Steelers to role in this one.


Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Plaxico Burress, Amos Zereoue, Tommy Maddox, Pittsburgh Defense

2nd String: Hines Ward, Jay Riemersma

Prediction: Browns 9, Steelers 24

Monday, October 6

Indianapolis (4-0) at Tampa Bay (2-1), 9:00 PM
Although the Denver-KC game is getting top bill from most in the NFL this week, I feel this is the best match up for the fans. Offensive powerhouse versus defensive stronghold. Tampa has the best pass defense in the land, allowing only 106 yards passing a game. That is an amazing number, and it will be tested by the air attack of Peyton Manning. The Colts have had plenty of success throwing the ball this year. Both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are good receiver, and rookie TE Dallas Clark is proving to be worthy of the starting role. The wild card for the Colts is Edge James. James missed last weeks offensive romp due to a back injury, and he is still listed as questionable for this game. The Colts need James this week: Tampa's defensive weakness is versus the run. They are giving up about 107 yards rushing a game, and they don't give up too much scoring on either the run or pass. James would allow the Colts to control the clock, eat up yards, and take advantage of what the Bucs would be willing to give up defensively. If James doesn't play, it could be tough go for the Colts. Though Manning could start connecting at any time, the Bucs will play their normal game, and the chances of the Colts going deep for quick scores is pretty slim. Without James, the Colts will have to rely on defense.

The Colts defense is very good, much better than expected. Dungy has his boys playing well, allowing only 171 yards passing a game. The real number to watch is the scoring: the Colts have given up only 4 TD's this year. The Bucs have struggled at times to put up any offense, much less touchdowns. Though Pittman has played better than expected, the running game is sporadic at best. Brad Johnson is a decent QB, but the passing game is also struggling for consistency. With the loss of Joe Jurevicius and the lack of production from Keyshawn, the main WR has been Keenan McCardell. I know Warren Sapp has become an offensive threat, but don't count on him to carry "the load" (no pun, well, ok, pun intended). The Bucs have to find a way to score points, and they won't have an easy go against this tough Indy defense. The loss of Dwight Freeney has been big, yet the team has performed well without his talents. Freeney may return for this game (he's Questionable), and if he does the Bucs mission will be that much tougher. This game will actually be a defensive battle, and the result lies in the hands of Edge James. If James can go, my predicted score looks good to me. If he can't, reverse them! This game will be awesome, at least for those of us who love defensive football!

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Edgerrin James(Questionable), Indy Defense, Tampa Bay Defense, Dallas Clark, Mike Vanderjagt

2nd String: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Keenan McCardell

Prediction: Colts 13, Bucs 6