As a Thanksgiving gift, the Packer are trying their best to make Brett Favre consider retirement. "But Bryan, the Packers are WINNING!" Yep, they sure are, and if they can keep it up and get into the playoffs, don't you think Favre would like to end things like Mike…. well, like Mike should have, by going out on top? They are only one game behind Minnesota and last week's win over San Fran was another step towards making a believer out of me. Ahman Green may not have scored, but he ran for big yards AGAIN, totaling 154 and contributing the bulk of a nice offensive day (the Pack picked up a total of 243 rushing yards). The Niner's D wasn't too shabby coming into the game: they were holding opponents to 87 rushing yards a game (4th in NFL, until last week!). Now they get to face a defense that has improved over the season but is still struggling to stop the run (or the pass for that matter). The Lions are currently ranked 18th versus the run and 15th versus the pass. They haven't performed horribly the last few weeks: they held the entire Oakland RB committee to 94 total rushing yards 4 weeks ago, Anthony Thomas to 61 yards 3 weeks ago, and Michael Bennett to 73 yards last week (I should mention that between the Chicago/Minny game they did allow Shaun Alexander to go for 110, and the Vikings did total 121 rushing yards last week). That's an improvement, but they are going to face Green, the hottest RB in football right now. He's already racked up 1172 yards total, averaging 5.3 a carry (that is an AWESOME number), and in Green Bay's 11 games thus far Green has failed to reach 100 yards or more only 3 times. He's on a real hot streak now too: in his last 4 games, he's gone for 137, 192, 109, & 154 respectively (and all of those performances came against quality defensive units, with the exception of the 137 which came against Minnesota). Detroit has NO answer for this guy. In fact, I don't know if any team has an answer for Green. He's too tough, he's to dedicated, he runs too hard and too fast, and he'll eat Detroit up with some eggs over easy and wheat toast.

Detroit has managed to play well over their heads of late. I should rephrase that: Joey Harrington has proven his worth by leading his team to unexpected offensive performances in the last few weeks. In Detroit's last 4 games, the Lions are 2 & 2, pulling out upsets over Oakland (I suppose that's a debatable "upset") & Chicago and losing to Seattle and Minnesota (though keeping the score's more respectable than you might imagine against such offensive powers). Without a real go to receiver or stud weapon, Harrington is still managing to put up some decent numbers. Granted, he has 15 interceptions to 11 touchdowns, but when you consider he's been without Charles Rogers since Game 5 it's pretty amazing that he's able to make something out of virtually nothing. Az-Zir Hakim, Scotty Anderson, and Bill Schroeder are not names that will strike fear in any defensive back, yet Harrington is finding these guys and done well. He lit up a tough Seattle defense for 285 yards and 2 TD's, and that alone is impressive. All of this is nice, but he'll have his work cut out for him versus Green Bay. He has no shot at keeping pace with the high-powered Packer offense, and it is foolish to expect Harrington to pull out a win in this one. But he could make it a little more interesting than you might expect. The Packers currently rank 21st versus the pass (no offense, but I'm not going to worry about the rush defense as the Lions couldn't run the ball through a wall of Cool Whip right now). They have looked better in recent weeks: they held the hot handed Tim Rattay to 142 yds and 1 TD last week, and they held Brad Johnson to 149 yds and 1 TD two weeks ago (picking off 2 balls in the process). Harrington may be a better QB than those guys (or maybe I should say he WILL be a better QB than those guys some day) but the numbers don't bode well for him this week. Take the Pack, and they should win convincingly.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Ahman Green, Brett Favre, Ryan Longwell, Javon Walker, Packer Defense, Joey Harrington, Jason Hanson

2nd String: Donald Driver, Bubba Franks, Az-Zir Hakim, Bill Schroeder, Mikhael Ricks

Prediction: Pack 23, Lions 13

Miami (7-4) at Dallas (8-3) Thurs 4:05 PM
The Dolphins made us all lose a few brain cells last week. They start off the game hot, injuring Patrick Ramsey and letting us all believe the game was virtually in the bag as the Skins wouldn't be able to produce ANY offense without Ramsey, especially against that tough defense. Well, Timmy Hasselback comes in and somehow manages to look like a seasoned veteran despite his lack of experience. Fortunately, Coach Dave Wannstedt decided he wasn't in the mood to lose his job NOW, and started giving the ball to Ricky Williams (something he hasn't done nearly enough in the last few weeks). I would imagine the local Miami press will be having a field day regardless: Wanny refused to name his starter till game time, went with Brian Griese who proceeded to stink up the entire field like a bad fart in a hot car, and then brought in Jay Fiedler in relief who didn't do much better (total of 173 net yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT's). It's been a proven fact that this team doesn't need a phenom QB to win: just give the rock to Ricky and let him go. Instead, Wanny wants to be a passing team and seems to avoid running the ball. This week, on Thanksgiving, Wanny better be giving thanks that he has a nice, understanding family, because his team is going to have trouble running OR passing against Dallas. The Dallas defense is one of the best in the land, currently ranked 2nd against the run (giving up only 82 yds a game) and 1st versus the pass (giving up 156 yds a game). Roy Williams & company will see Griese or Fiedler through the eyes of rampaging maniac, looking at their prey as sitting targets, full of meat and ripe for the kill. Ricky may make things more complicated for Dallas than normal, but with his recent lack of carries and Wanny's insistence on passing the ball, it may not matter. Dallas' defense, if they perform as well as they have all season, will be enough to pull out a win in this match up.

Now, all of you out there that were all over me for picking Dallas over the Patriots (and yes, I was WRONG on that one and have eaten one healthy helping of crow): are any of you convinced that maybe this Dallas team is for REAL, that they are not a fluke, that their offense is pretty decent and not as "inferior" as many of you insinuated? If not, than pass the bong and give me a light, 'cause that's some Willie Green bud I need to enjoy along with ya'! What a huge win for Dallas last week, beating what might have been the NFC top dog team and what was definitely one of the NFL's best defensive units, the Carolina Panthers! 319 yards of offense on the Panthers is impressive, and only 65 of those yards were from the rushing game. Quincy Carter is making me a believer not only him his abilities, but in Parcell's talents as a motivator, teacher, and coach. Hell, I was already on board with Parcells after he was in New England, but I figured (as many of us did) that he would end up dumping Carter at the end of the season. Instead, he's got this kid throwing all over the field with confidence, he's got him running the ball conservatively yet effectively, and he's got Carter seeing the field like a veteran QB and using his deep WR corps with great success. This plays right into the defensive weakness of Miami: the Fins rank 4th versus the run (giving up only 89 yds a game) but they rank 22nd versus the pass (215 yards/game). It's also worth noting the Fins are a great defense when it comes to keeping the points off the scoreboard: they rank 2nd in scoring defense right now (by the way, Dallas is 1st!). Dallas may not need a lot of points to win, but they will need to get at least a couple of TD's and FG's to win this one. By the way, mark this down as a guarantee: Parcells WILL run the ball, and though Hambrick, Cason, and Anderson may not get huge yards they will keep the Miami defense honest and they will have some success moving the ball (somehow, this Miami team let the Redskins, a team with a horrible rushing attack, run for a team total of 129 yards last week). This is going to be a great defensive battle, and right now I have to give the edge to the Boys. They've been tearing up the opposition defensively, and even in their losses they've been tough on defense. Carter will continue to impress as he takes advantage of the Fins' defensive weakness (they have good corners, and they could pick off a ball or two, but they give up too many big plays). It's Thanksgiving, it's the traditional Dallas Cowboys' opportunity to showcase for America (historically one of the biggest viewing audiences in all of sports for the TV year), the Boys are at home, and the offense of the Fins has been way too unstable for me to have any faith in them on this Turkey Day. I'm taking the Boys in a low scoring affair, but they will win.

LATE NEWS: Jay Fiedler will get the start for Miami this week.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Dallas Defense, Quincy Carter, Joey Galloway, Ricky Williams, Billy Cundiff

2nd String: Terry Glenn, Antonio Bryant, Miami Defense, Chris Chambers, James McKnight, Randy McMichael, Troy Hambrick, Jay Fiedler, Jason Witten, Olindo Mare

Prediction: Fins 10, Cowboys 17

Arizona (3-8) at Chicago (4-7) Sun 1:00 PM
Every week I like to compare a team to some person or group of people in my life, in a futile attempt to make you all laugh and lighten these previews a bit. Arizona is just like that buddy you have that, on the surface, seems like a total leach: they just hang around, they don't look good at all, and they tend to drive away any interested "viewers" you might have; yet, when you get down to it, they seem to come through in times when you least expect it, and they are actually more deserving of respect than you may allow. The Cardinals seem to play well in games when you expect them to get kicked around. For instance, they damn near beat the Rams last week, picking off Marc Bulger 4 times and making the "best show on turf" pull out an overtime win on the leg of Jeff Wilkens. I actually get emails asking, "How do these guys do it? They've been blown out only twice, are probably deserving of butt kickings more often, they've stayed competitive in most of their games, and they've picked up 3 wins against teams that they had no right even being in contention with (Green Bay, San Francisco, and Cincinnati)." To be honest (I normally just make this stuff up off the top of my imaginative head, but this time I'll actually tell you the REAL reason for their "success"), I think this team can point to two aspects that have made them a competitive team: (1) Marcel Shipp (he didn't do anything in their first win over Green Bay, but I blame that game on both the Packers' bad passing D at the time and reason #2), and (2) a well-planned, selective defensive attack. If you look at the wins and how the Cards have attacked their opponents defensively, they have done well against the hot point of the opposition's offense. For instance, when they beat the Packers, they held Ahman Green to just 53 yards and let Favre try to beat them (Favre did well, but they didn't find the end zone enough). When they best San Fran, they kept Jeff Garcia to 153 yards, Terrell Owens to 53 yards, and they kept both of those guys out of the end zone. When they beat Cincy, they shut down Rudi Johnson (only 34 yards, though he did pick up one TD) and they effectively contained Chad Johnson (75 yards, no TD's). This defense isn't always so effective, but when they can achieve these goals defensively and they can achieve some offensive success (especially running the ball with Shipp) they are able to keep game respectable and, sometimes, pull out a close win (the beat the Pack by 7, and beat both the Niners and Bengals by only 3 points).

Chicago is a similar team. When they win it's never by too much, and they are able to stay competitive through good defensive efforts and good running games. It's no secret that Anthony Thomas is the key to the Bears' offense. He's regained his rookie form and has been a great RB since Week 4 (following the bye week, and not including his injury weeks). The funny thing is Thomas doesn't have to run for a ton of yards. He just has to run at key points in the game, he has to run for positive yards, and he has to run his style of punishing, hard-hitting spurts in order to (a) keep defenses honest and watching for the run, and (b) to wear on the defensive line and keep them away from his QB as often as possible. The Bears' offensive line isn't so good, mainly due to injuries (the loss of Rex Tucker has been a huge factor, and other key guys have missed time as well). By the way, we should note that Chris Chandler was injured in last week's game win over Denver and Kordell Stewart performed well in relief, probably having his best game to date with Chicago (7/15, 47 yards passing, 8 runs for 29 yards and 1 rushing TD; the numbers may not speak it, but Stewart did a great job of field management and team leadership). Stewart may have played well enough to earn a start even if Chandler gets healthy. We'll see what unravels, but I'd argue it doesn't make too much difference. I'd say these teams are evenly matched, but Chicago is lacking the passing game the Cards are able to bring to the table every week. This will be the key factor of this game: the Bears' defensive backs are not great, but in the last few weeks they have improved dramatically in recent weeks with tough coverage (Charles Tillman, Jerry Azumah, Mike Brown, and RW McQuarters have collectively taken the heat to leading receivers such as Rod Smith, David Boston, and Az-Zir Hakim). They will have to blanket Anquan Boldin if they hope to win. You know Marcel Shipp is going to run well: Chicago gives up an average of 129 yards rushing a game. However, I don't believe Shipp can win this game alone. Zona is giving up 105 rushing yards a game (respectable, but if they give this up to Thomas it could be enough to produce a loss) and 223 passing yards a game (having allowed 19 passing TD's). So, Chicago will need to pass the ball and either throw it into the end zone or get close enough for A-Train to do the damage. I've pointed it out before, and it's still true: Arizona is a totally different team on the road. All 3 wins for the Cards have been at home, and on the road they lose by an average of 22 points. The Cards don't do well in the cold, they won't pass well in the cold, and if Chicago can keep up the good work they've done against the pass of late they will use all of these factors to their advantage. Marcel Shipp is great, but he's not good enough to win this one on his own. It won't be a pretty game, but take the Bears in a rough and tumble battle of running backs and defense.

LATE NEWS: Chandler will start if he is healthy enough to, a point yet to be determined.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Anthony Thomas, Marcel Shipp, Anquan Boldin, Chicago Defense, Paul Edinger

2nd String: Chris Chandler (Questionable), Kordell Stewart, Marty Booker, Dez White, Justin Gage, Desmond Clark, Jeff Blake, Bryant Johnson, Freddie Jones

Prediction: Cards 14, Bears 20

New England (9-2) at Indianapolis (9-2) 1:00 PM
Is it just me or is every week turning into an adventure for these teams? It's hard to be a top team in the NFL: you are constantly targeted as the key win for every other team's season and every team brings the house when they play you. This make the Patriots that much more amazing. This team is so well coached and they are putting together such a great team effort every week that their coach deserves some talk when discussing the Coach of the Year candidates (Parcells & Marv Lewis get plenty of talk, and deservedly so, but don't for get Belichick). This team is, to the "untrained eye," nothing more than a passing team with a good defense. Granted, they do throw a bunch and they do play great defense, but they also run more effectively (as in they don't run for a lot of yards but they do run at opportune times and they do have a respectable back in Kevin Faulk) than you might guess and they play great special teams. They are loaded with both veteran and young talent, a great mix of players with great skills and passion for the game, and they must be recognized as a great TEAM and not a good team with great players. They will have their work cut out for them this week as they face a team that may or may not be just as good, if not better, than themselves. The Colts are playing by the seat of their pants: since Week 5 the Colts have won games by an average of less than 6 points a game. Their defensive plan of attack will be simple: try to shut down Brady and let the others try their best. Indy's pass D is very good, currently ranked 6th in the NFL. They will need to clamp down on the Pat's abilities to score, and they have luck on their side. The Pats are greatly hampered by injuries at the WR position: Troy Brown & David Givens both missed last week's game and are still a questionable, and Deion Branch did play but is hampered by a bum ankle. Brady has been money this year, but the Pats may need more than their average point total (20 pts) in this game to keep up with the Colts' high-powered offense (averaging 28 points a game).

Well, if the Pats are worried about scoring, than the Colts had BETTER be worried about scoring. The Pats currently rank 13th against the pass and 5th versus the rush. In a normal game situation the Colts would be loaded with enough weapons to overcome this defensive complexity, but the Colts are battling some key injuries. Superstud Marvin Harrison is dinged up (hamstring), and backup receivers Brandon Stokley and Troy Walters are also injured (not to mention Left Tackle Tarik Glenn is also out). Harrison may or may not play in this game, and even if he does he won't be 100%. To make things worse, TE Marcus Pollard is also questionable (sprained knee). With all of these guys missing on offense, the Colts cannot afford to give the Pats free possessions. They must protect the ball at all costs, and Edge James and Peyton Manning are great players to have in this position. This New England D will give Manning problems: they have 17 interceptions, having returned 3 of them for TD's. Throw in 25 sacks thus far and you are looking at a tough passing D despite the yards they may give away. The real problem will be breaking the Pat's rushing D: the Pats are giving up only 91 yards a game and have allowed only one run over 20 yards. They held Domanick Davis of Houston to only 69 yards and 0 TD's last week (and he's been playing very well); they held the entire Dallas team to only 84 yards rushing; they held Tiki Barber to only 72 yards a few weeks ago. However, they have struggled a bit versus the two tougher RB's they have faced: Clinton Portis rang 'em up for 111 yards and Ricky Williams ran for 94 (he was in the midst of a bad slump too). Edge is likely to have a typical, workhorse style of day that has become his trademark. This is a very tough game to prognosticate! Both teams are passing threats but are suffering injuries at WR, and this should be the key to producing points in this game. That said, I'm going with Edge James and the Colts. Although we all know the Pat's defense has been amazing, I worry the offense isn't up for this game. The injuries at WR are killing this team right now: they barely escaped a loss to Houston last week despite Tony Banks throwing for only 93 yards and Domanick Davis running for only 69 yards. They should have had an easy day through the air as Houston's pass D is the second worst in the NFL. Now look at the Indy D and you'll see why I feel the Pats won't be as lucky this week: the Colts are allowing only 180 yards passing a game. If Brady, with essentially the same receivers he'll have this week, couldn't take advantage of the bad Houston backfield than I cannot wager he will fair better versus this Colts defense. This, along with the power of Edge James and the fact that Reggie Wayne WILL be on the field (thus providing Manning with a nice edge over Brady; Bethel Johnson had a nice game last week but he's not on Wayne's level yet), gives the Colts a slight advantage, and being at home doesn't hurt either. I know the Pats have done it with injuries thus far, but I think the offensive injuries are too much to overcome the Colts this week.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Edge James, Patriot Defense, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Mike Vanderjagt, Colt Defense

2nd String: Deion Branch (Questionable), David Givens (Questionable), Kevin Faulk, Troy Brown (Questionable), Daniel Graham, Dallas Clark, Adam Vinatieri

Prediction: Pats 16, Colts 23

Minnesota (7-4) at St. Louis (8-3) 1:00 PM
So, are you Minnesota fans content with the big win over Detroit last week? Christ I hope not: your team still managed to look awful and pulled away thanks to two late interceptions returned for TD's. Nothing impressive from Culpepper, Randy Moss was all but shut down, and the only player I can point to for positive reviews is Michael Bennett. He looked solid, running the ball 15 times for 73 yards including one TD from 25 yards out (by the way, what happened to the 20 carries Tice promised us? I've decided to take everything this guy says and throw it out the window; he's a decent coach but I'm tired of banking on his press statements just to have it all go to hell). The Vikes had better get their crap together this week as they play one of the NFL's better teams in St. Louis. I'm not ready to put the Rams on the upper tier with the other teams that are 8 & 3 or better as they continue to escape games against bad teams by the skin of Marc Bulger's corn feed teeth. The Vikes may have to actually lean on Bennett this week: the Rams are currently ranked 7th in pass defense, giving up 182 yards a game with 16 interceptions (4th best number in the NFL). Culpepper may have only 7 interceptions on the year, but 5 of those have come in the last 3 weeks. It seems he's recessing back to his turnover problems that he had seemed to leave behind in the early season. That can happen when you've been winning so much and then your team starts to struggle: Culpepper wants to be the leader of this team (and that's good), but he's forcing bad plays and throwing bad passes in an attempt to overcome the problems. Give him an A for effort and an F for execution. Look for Minnesota to continue passing the ball, but they may attempt a few more runs than usual this week, and that's a step in the right direction if you ask me (the Rams are allowing 117 yards rushing a game, and have allowed 10 runs of 20 yards or more). This is a defense set up for Bennett to succeed against: they give up yards, they give up long runs, and they don't have the speed to keep up with Bennett once he breaks into the open.

Well, I guess the secret is out of the bag. I suppose it's ok to just come out and say it: Marc Bulger throws a few interceptions here and there. Wait…. I've been saying that all along. So why is it suddenly a problem in St. Lou if the guy throws a few picks? OH, I guess it's harder to overcome the mistakes when your defense can't keep bad teams out of the end zone. Fact: the Rams struggled to beat both Chicago and Arizona, winning the two games by a total of 5 points. Fact: Chicago and Arizona pretty much suck. Fact: Bulger threw 6 interceptions in those two games, and managed only 3 TD's. Before Bulger would always get the TD numbers to overcome the interceptions: before Week 9 he had 11 TD's versus 7 INT's, and since Week 9 he's thrown only 4 TD's versus 10 INT's. I guess that would get a coach wondering. Here is the key to getting Bulger out of his funk: Marshall Faulk. Faulk is still one of the league's best RB's, and he can provide several ways of relieving stress from Bulger. First, he's a great runner and the Rams don't run the ball enough (this last game was more like it: 24 carries and 100 yards; I'd like to see more like 25-30 carries). Second, Faulk is as good at catching the ball as he is at running with it. He's an excellent short yardage target who can do some major damage after the catch. Let Bulger throw it short more often and let Faulk pick up the yards. It's a high percentage completion and a high percentage success play for yards. I guess I can let the other big secret of this game out: the Vikings really, really suck on defense. They have the 8th worst rushing defense in the NFL, giving up 130 yards a game and allowing big runs at an alarming rate (12 runs over 20 yards thus far!). Memo to Mike Martz: GIVE MARSHALL THE DAMN BALL (now that MeShawn has been de-activated the "damn ball" thing is no longer protected by copyright and I can rip it off). The Vikes also happen to give up a ton of passing yards: 227 per game, but be careful. They also lead the NFL with 22 interceptions! That could spell trouble for Bulger is he can't get his accuracy going. Listen, the game comes down to Mike Martz: if the Rams can give Culpepper trouble on defense and keep Bennett respectable, then Marshall Faulk could win this game almost by himself, IF YOU GIVE HIM THE BALL. I don't care if you pass it to him, I don't care if you hand it to him, but give Marshall the ball and this should be a win. Your gamble: I'm betting Faulk does it, and I'm even more willing to bet the Vikes' defense blows it. Take the Rams in a fun loving, high scoring affair.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Marshall Faulk, Michael Bennett, Torry Holt, Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper, Marc Bulger, Jeff Wilkins

2nd String: Moe Williams, Aaron Elling, Nate Burleson, Kelly Campbell, Jim Kleinsasser, Rams Defense, Isaac Bruce, Dane Looker, Brandon Maneamula

Prediction: Vikes 21, Rams 27

Buffalo (4-7) at NY Giants (4-7) 1:00 PM
Excuse me for being blunt (not blunted, but thanks for the suggestion!), but this game makes me want to puke. It just makes me sick to my stomach. Which Giant team is going to show up? Which Buffalo team is going to show? Whose defense will do a better impression of a sieve? Which QB will perform more like a bloated turd? Which team will I pick to win this horrid game? I guess I should start with the Bills, as they are at least decent enough to bring a good running game to the dance. However, here is my thought of the week for you fantasy heads: at what point do the Bills say the season is lost, sit Henry to avoid further damage to his leg, and let the rookie loose? Henry has been very tough this year and his performance in last week's game (playing with a cracked fibula) was impressive. But there is no denying that this Bills team is all but eliminated from the playoffs, and their coach (Gregg Williams) has to be one of the first candidates for firing right now. Drew Bledsoe has completely thrown up in recent weeks. He can't find an open man and he's turned into a fantasy corpse: 0 TD's in the last 4 games, and if you want to go back even further you could point out that he's thrown only 6 all year with only one multi-TD game thus far. One word comes to mind: pathetic. He's become the whipping boy for this team's woes, and I guess it's hard to deny (I like him and don't want to pile on, but the stats don't do a very good job of defending him). If I had any faith in the guy I'd say he's a great candidate to light up the Giants, but this team is doing nothing against anyone: the Bills have slowly slid down to the bottom of the scoring stats, currently the 2nd worst team for scoring in the NFL (just above Arizona, and that hurts). How does a team with THIS many weapons struggle so hard to score? It's hard to wrap your head around it, and I'm not going to try any more.

Then we come to the Giants, another team I really don't want to review as it's painfully obvious to any football fan why this team struggles: they can't hold on the ball. It's almost like Kerry Collins is missing something, like he's not learning from his mistakes, the same mistakes he's been making since college. He continues to try and force passes into double coverage and then acts surprised when the ball gets picked off. Tiki Barber has become an accident waiting to happen, and the wait is never long. He's got the fumble bug, and the only person who can kill it is himself. The Giants' defense is a solid unit with some great talent, but in recent weeks they haven't stopped anyone in the red zone. They either force you to punt or it's a touchdown! This team is just like Buffalo: I don't want anything to with them, I have no idea what to expect from week to week, and the only things you can count on are negatives! I don't have any faith in either team scoring too much, and so we must look at the defensive side of the ball to determine which team has the edge. Against the run, neither team is very impressive: Buffalo ranks 11th overall (104 yds/game, 10 TD's), the Giants rank 15th (115 yds/game, 11 TD's). I'd call it a wash defensively, but give the edge to Buffalo as they have the better running game. Against the pass, Buffalo has a clear edge: the Bills rank 4th (172 yds/game, 10 TD's), and the Giants rank 19th (214 yds/game, 13 TD's). Neither team picks up too many interceptions, but the Giants do get great QB pressure (30 sacks to Buffalo's 19). Looks like a wash again: even though the Giants give up a fair amount of passing yards, Bledsoe can't take advantage and he'll be running for his life all day. I think I'll have to take the Bills, and it's a total gamble. I believe Henry may have a nice game (assuming he gets the start and stays healthy), it sounds like Eric Moulds feels as good as he has in several weeks, and here is the key stat: the Giants are 1 & 4 at home, including a loss to the lowly Falcons 3 weeks ago. Maybe Bledsoe will find his game this weekend, maybe the return of Eric Moulds to health will boost the team, and I'll put my money on the Bills' defense as they are likely to shut down Collins and get some help from Barber. I'm not going to watch too much of this one, but give me the Bills.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Travis Henry, Eric Moulds, Amani Toomer, Matt Bryant, Jeremy Shockey (Questionable)

2nd String: Giant Defense, Kerry Collins, Tiki Barber, Ike Hilliard, Drew Bledsoe, Josh Reed, Bobby Shaw, Rian Lindell, Buffalo Defense

Prediction: Bills 17, Giants 14

Cincinnati (6-5) at Pittsburgh (4-7) 1:00 PM
How did the Bungles become the hot team to pick for the playoffs?! This is a team that has made a reputation out of performing for a high draft pick, not a playoff berth. Give the credit to Marvin Lewis for instilling a new approach and a new attitude. But don't forget to mention Chad Johnson. It is not often I'm willing to give credit to a receiver for much of anything, but this kid is the goods. He's got phenomenal talent and skills, and he's got the work ethic that turns good players into great players. Normally, you will find the leader of a team in the locker room is the QB or maybe a defensive stud, but it's never a WR. Johnson is the exception to the rule: he may run his mouth, but it gives his team a voice and a boost of confidence. Plus, when you put the stats behind the talk, the talk seems to take on a meaning of significance. Cincy is throwing for 218 yards a game, with 19 TD's to show for it (half of those belong to CJ), and that is a vast improvement over the Bengals of the past. They will have a tough one this week as they travel to Pittsburgh. Just a handful of weeks ago, you could look at the defensive numbers for the Steelers and make an argument that their defense was not to blame for their struggles. However, their numbers have begun to slide and are reflecting the recent problems this unit has faced: they are 12th versus the pass (201 yds/game, 16 TD's allowed) and 8th versus the run (99 yds/game, 10 TD's allowed). Rudi Johnson has been a nice back for the Bengals this year (especially in relief of Corey Dillon, possibly the biggest disappointment fantasy wise this season thus far), and I did notice Dillon racked up over 100 yards last week (don't get too excited, it was San Diego). However, it's obvious the Bengals need to go to the air in this match up in order to win, and that makes Chad Johnson my big fantasy play of the week. He could, and should, light up this struggling Pitt D for at least a couple of TD's. If you look at the recent box scores for the Pittsburgh games, you'll notice a lot of long passing plays against this team, and that is where Kitna to CJ will eat you up.

Now, we get to the meat of the Bengals's success: the defense. They are going to provide a great match up for this Pitt team. They are not very good against the run, but the Steelers can't run the ball anyway (Cincy gives up 121 yds/game, but Pitt has the 2nd worst rushing offense in football, gaining only 85 yards a game). It's not hard to do the math: the Steelers are going to live and die with the pass, and it looks like a death is more likely. The Bengals currently rank 7th in league passing defense, giving up 209 yards a game. However, they have also given up 17 passing TD's, 4th most in the NFL. Not a good number, but we know they can provide some coverage and QB pressure. Tommy Maddox comes into the game riding a major slump: the winning hasn't come even when he's thrown well, and he has struggled against the tougher teams. He's a great QB, but he's having a rough year and that could continue this week versus Cincy. No one wants to play the Bengals right now: they've won 3 in a row, including the big upset of KC. The Steelers could make this game interesting if they can get more than one hot receiver. Plaxico Burress has struggled thus far, but he finally found some good yards (92) last week, and if he can take some pressure off of Hines Ward and the two can start to work in tandem, the Steelers could take this game. That is asking a lot of this team, and it's also asking for something that hasn't happened too much lately. Pitt is averaging only 18 points a game, and Cincy has pushed their average up to 22. However, in their last 2 games they are averaging 31 points a game, and all three of those teams also sport struggling pass D's. Here's something else to consider: Cincy is tied for the division lead with Baltimore (the Ravens play San Fran, not an easy win but very possible) and these two teams have played already this year (Pitt won 17-10, pre-Rudi Johnson). Cincy has every reason to win: to avenge their earlier loss, to stay atop the division, and to continue the feel-good story of the year thus far. I'm taking Cincy, and maybe I should actually say I'm taking Chad Johnson. I think Rudi will actually have a nice game and he will help free up the passing routes. This game could be close once again, but I'll take the hot hand and go with Cincy.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Chad Johnson, Jon Kitna, Rudi Johnson, Peter Warrick, Hines Ward, Jeff Reed

2nd String: Corey Dillon, Matt Schobel, Shayne Graham, Cincy Defense, Tommy Maddox, Plaxico Burress, Pitt Defense, Jerome Bettis, Amos Zereoue, Jay Reimersma (Questionable), Antwaan Randle El

Prediction: Bengals 21, Steelers 17

Philadelphia (8-3) at Carolina (8-3) 1:00 PM
I didn't think I'd be saying this, but I really don't notice the difference between regular and light mayonnaise. WAIT…. sorry. I meant to say, I didn't think I'd be saying this, but the Eagles are the hot team in the NFL right now. The have won 6 straight, and they've done it in all kinds of ways. I mention Andy Reid as a great coach every week, but maybe this week we should notice his fashion sense instead. Never mind. The Eagles have to be happy to have Donovan McNabb back. After spending 7 weeks on the Players Unable to not Suck list, he's been playing very well in his last 4 games, and I think you can attribute this to two factors: (1) his timing was not there in the early going (he practices in Chicago, his hometown, and not with his receivers, during the off season), and (2) his lack of confidence running the ball. Now, I'll say the 1st reason I give is supported by the stats with completion percentages. However, his running numbers were actually much better early in the season, but maybe it's just something I'm seeing when I watch him play. It seemed he was waiting too long to take off running early in the year, and he's progressed back to his normal position since then. Regardless, he's playing much better and he's throwing TD's. He may have a tougher time versus Carolina. Or maybe he won't: the Panthers' D has struggled in recent weeks to keep teams off the scoreboard. Carolina has taken the route of winning by just enough offense lately, as opposed to using a strong defensive stance to keep opponents down. They give up passing yards (217/game) and rushing as well (98/game), but they don't give up too many rushing TD's (only 5 thus far). This could be a tough go against Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter, two RB's built for goal line runs and TD punches. However, I would look for the Eagles to attack through the air more, and they could find success.

How many of you knew the Panthers had lost only once at home this year? OK, how about this one: how many of you knew the Panthers are winning games by an average spread of 5 points? The Cats like to keep it close, and I like to watch close games. Carolina would love to win this won convincingly. After losing a close one to Dallas, the Cats would love to announce their deserved presence at the top of the NFL world. It's no secret, the Panthers love to run the football, and they have a great RB for their system. Stephen Davis deserves some attention for NFL MVP as he has completely revamped the attitude and attack of this offense, along with Jake Delhomme. Jake has been solid and has gotten better with every game. He's shown he is a clutch player already, having won 3 games (by my count) with his arm alone (late drives, leading the team downfield with little time on a long arm). The loss to Dallas last week hurt: it was the first time the offense had put up 20 points and lost (they did almost come back, but they just ran out of time and were one possession short). They would love to derail the Eagles and get themselves back on the winning track. To do so, they will give the ball to Davis: the Eagles have a pretty bad rushing D, giving up 120 yards a game and having allowed 7 runs for 20 yards or more. I brought it up in Week 10's previews, after I noticed the "true" rushing numbers being allowed by Philly, that this team is not going (in Week 10, I said "was not likely to") stop a good RB. They let Ahman Green run for 192, and they let Deuce McAllister run for 184 last week. "But Bryan, Philly still won those games." Good point, but realize this: Green Bay and New Orleans do not have the same defensive powers the Panthers possess. It is not often you will let a RB go for nearly 200 yards and still win, and Philly has done it thanks to Donovan McNabb. He leads the team downfield, and in most cases he hands the ball off to Brian Westbrook for the score. That won't be as easy this week. Philly will have to work for those yards and TD's, and they will have to find a way to counter Stephen Davis. Philly is also vulnerable to the pass, and this is where Delhomme could kill them. Philly gives up 213 yards a game, and that could be enough for Delhomme to beat them. The combination of Davis and Delhomme will give them enough points, and the defense of Carolina will keep the score just low enough to enforce the offense. This will be a great game, and I'm taking the home team. Philly can't win out, and Carolina has so much to gain with a win here. LOOK AT THE PANTHERS' SCHEDULE AFTER THIS GAME! In order: Atlanta, Arizona, Detroit, and the Giants. That, my friends, is what we call "cake" in the fantasy biz. If Carolina can pick up this win, they could, conceivably, win out and go into the playoffs very strong and ready to charge to the Bowl.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Stephen Davis, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, David Akers, John Kasay

2nd String: Correll Buckhalter, James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, LJ Smith, Chad Lewis, Philly Defense, Carolina Defense, DeShaun Foster (Questionable), Muhsin Muhammad

Prediction: Eagles 20, Panthers 23

San Francisco (5-6) at Baltimore (6-5) 1:00 PM
The Niners are an interesting team. They could be a big time surprise for the season. With 6 losses, they could already be out of the playoff picture. This makes them even more interesting, as they can now go out every week and let it all hang out! Tim Rattay has been a solid performer since taking the reigns from Garcia, going 2 & 1 with 6 TD's and only 2 INT's. Pretty impressive. Terrell Owens loves him, and for good reason: this kid LOVES to go downfield. I would think with TO on the team that going deep would be a given, but it doesn't happen as often under Garcia. I'd be more impressed if the Niners could run with some consistency. They ran for 169 versus Pittsburgh (a good rush D), but then they turn around and run for 73 versus Green Bay (not a good rush D). That boggles my mind, and it's like that every week with these guys. This week they face the Ravens, normally a tough defense (guess I'd be remise if I didn't mention the 41 they gave up to Seattle last week). Baltimore comes with a very balanced defense that should cause some real problems for this Niner offense. They currently rank 8th versus the pass (182 yds/game) and 10th versus the rush (102 yds/game). If they can shut down Rattay to Owens, they can definitely beat this Niner team.

The Ravens may have found an answer at QB last week. If Boller was still healthy, I think he'd be doing fine, but the performance of Anthony Wright last week can only be described as unbelievable. This Raven offense relies so heavily on the rushing of Jamal Lewis, and the fact that this kid can come forth and put up the ball with such abandon and success means the world to this Baltimore team. They have a defense that can make them competitive in any game (not as good as the Super Bowl year, but still rather good), and with a good, balanced, consistent offense they could still make a run for the playoffs. Now, that said, I'm not one to take one performance and make it the expectation. Wright may come out this week and lay another egg, as he was before last week. Let's take a look at the San Fran numbers: they currently rank 9th versus the rush (impressive, 101 yards a game) and 14th versus the pass (204 yds/game). You look at the rushing number and you may think, "not a good week for Jamal Lewis ahead." Wrong. Take a look at the Niners' schedule: they have faced only 4 teams with a formidable running game (Seattle, St. Louis, Arizona, Green Bay). In the first match with the Rams, Marshall Faulk was injured during the game, so throw it out. Against Seattle, they "contained" Shaun Alexander to 77 yards, but as a team Seattle ran for a total of 147 yards. In the second match versus St. Lou, they had Arlen Harris (and held him to 9 yards, but I'm not ready to call that impressive). Then, they hit Arizona, and Marcell Shipp hit 'em up for 165 yards. THEN, last week, they faced Green Bay and Ahman Green, a runner very similar to Jamal Lewis. Green ran for 154. I'm convinced if you lined up Jamal across for Zeus and the army of the dead, he'd run for 150 and 2 TD's. I'll take Lewis this week and expect good numbers. The passing game is the concern. I don't expect Marcus Robinson to get 4 TD's ever again, and I don't know if Wright can do it again. Here's my guess: I look at the standing and I don't think a wild card will come out of this division (guess). I don't think the Ravens will overtake the Bengals (guess, and did I actually say that?). I like their defense, but except for Jamal I don't believe this team's offense is good enough. They may prove me wrong, if Wright can play well and find the open guys. However, I haven't seen too much to let me believe he can do this two weeks in a row, and I don't know if Jamal Lewis will be enough to counter Rattay to Owens (I think Lewis will have a great day, but I don't know if he can score enough to win). I'm taking the Niners this week, but it will be very close and I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go the other way. I Wright can prove me wrong, I'll become a believer and give the wild card to Baltimore! Until then, I'll have to go with the Niners to play spoilers.

LATE NEWS: Jeff Garcia has been named Sunday's starter. I'd drop TO down a notch, but he's always capable of doing big things. I'll stick with the Niners, but I'm very wary of the pick.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Terrell Owens, Jamal Lewis, Baltimore Defense, Todd Heap

2nd String: Jeff Garcia, Garrison Hearst, Kevan Barlow, Tai Streets, 49er Defense, Anthony Wright, Travis Taylor, Marcus Robinson, Frank Sanders, Matt Stover

Prediction: Niners 17, Ravens 10

Atlanta (2-9) at Houston (4-7) 1:00 PM
I had this crazy dream the other night after a Jim Beam bender: the Atlanta Falcons, though missing Mike Vick, were competing with teams they had no right even playing, and they were doing this with different offensive attacks. They were still losing, but they were keeping games dangerously close and they were making handicappers very angry. I then woke up in cold sweat, and noticed that it wasn't a dream! What the.….. anyway. A 7-point loss to Philly, a win over the Giants (not too surprising), a 3-point OT loss to the Saints, and then they ice the cake with a 7-point loss to TENNESSEE. THEY SCORED 31 POINTS VERSUS THE TITANS. HOW IN THE NAME OF ALL THAT IS HOLY AND GOOD IN FOOTBALL DID THAT HAPPEN? Say what you like, but I'm pointing the finger directly at Warrick Dunn. Look at the numbers: he ran for 68 versus Philly (not impressive), but then he lit up the Giants for 178, and then reinforced that with 162 against the Saints, and then he comes against the tough Titan rush D and decides he can play receiver, catching passes for 129 yards. Well, I guess those days might be over then, as Dunn is now out for the year with a broken foot. It is still possible that TJ Duckett could pick up where Dunn left off, and Sling Johnson (or Kurt Kittner, whatever the flavor of the week is) could suddenly find Peerless Price with some regularity and make a game of it. I doubt it: Warrick was not only the offensive stud of the team, but he was also the emotional leader of this team and his loss will be huge for the Falcons. They could make some noise, and they could take advantage of the bad Houston defense. The Texans are the 5th worst rushing D in the land (140 yds/game) and are also the 2nd worst passing D in all the land (240 yds/game). However, the Texans don't allow as much scoring as the yards would indicate, so even if the Falcons find a way to take the yards, they will have a tough go to find the end zone.

So who knows what to think about the Texans? Bueller….. Bueller…… Bueller…… Ok, I think I've got it. They can run the ball, and they can occasionally pass the ball (when they find Andre Johnson) but since they have to constantly battle their own defense it's become tough to win. I love Andre Johnson. Last week he faced a very tough passing D in New England, and he had a rough day finding yards and open space, but he still manages to pick up a crucial TD to make the game very close and very exciting (at least for me, and since I'm all about #1 I was happy). He could tear it up this week if Tony Banks can overcome his, well, bad arm and bad mental decisions and get him the ball. Zona currently ranks dead last versus the pass (man, these teams are the two worst passing defenses in the NFL, and neither really has the offensive weapons to take advantage!). They give up an average of 251 yards a game through the air. Yes, Mr. Banks, I have Andre on every fantasy team I own and I would like to order 251 yards to AJ today, ok? I'd like to think Banks, if he gets the protection from his offensive line (never a given, but the O-Line in Houston isn't too bad), that he could get the ball downfield and make Johnson look like the Rookie of the Year. If he can't, maybe Domanick Davis can run and make his bid for RoY! Not only do the Falcons have the worst passing D in the NFL, they also sport the 2nd worst rushing D in the league (150 yds/game, 17 TD's allowed). So, class, to sum up: start Andre Johnson and Domanick Davis in your fantasy leagues, wager the paycheck on Houston at home (I can't say that, I don't know the spread, but I think Houston will kill these guys with Warrick Dunn), and enjoy the game.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Domanick Davis, Andre Johnson, Jay Feeley, Alge Crumpler, Kris Brown

2nd String: Tony Banks, Doug Johnson, Peerless Price, TJ Duckett, Quentin McCord, Jabar Gaffney, Billy Miller, Texan Defense

Prediction: Falcons 13, Texans 24

New Orleans (5-6) at Washington (4-7) 4:05 PM
The Saints have pretty much wasted yet another season, as it looks like they will miss the playoffs. However, that is not what erks me. What REALLY erks me, what REALLY pisses me off, if that fact that Deuce McAllister has 8 CONSECUTIVE 100-yard rushing games, and the Saints still can't win. Deuce is straight up money, he's so strong and so determined that he can't be stopped, not even by his own team. I don't ever know what to offer on Aaron Brooks: he's a nice QB but he'll never be his cousin, and he's become a fantasy bystander in most leagues. At print time, we are waiting to hear what will happen with Brooks (MRI on his right knee). His number are pretty solid: decent yards, 14 TD's versus 8 INT's, but his numbers aren't as big as you might like to see considering the WR's and RB. He will get some shots off at the Redskins this week. The Skins rank 24th versus the pass, giving up 217 yards a game and having allowed 16 passing TD's. If Brooks has Horn and Stallworth back, it would really help the Saints' chances of winning. Those two guys have been in and out for over a month, and getting them both to 100% may not happen at all this season, but they are the primary targets for Brooks and they are also the primary sources of relief for McAllister. Nothing will help a good running game like a good passing game (I just stole John Madden's weekly quote and reversed it), and the Saints could use a win in a major way and they'll need to score plenty to do it. You know Deuce will get his (the Skins rank 23rd versus the run, 128 yds/game); it's a question of the passing game and who productive can it be.

The Redskins are the exact opposite of the Saints. They can pass the ball, at least when Patrick Ramsey isn't working as a crash test dummy or a medical subject for the effects of major head injuries, but they have little to no running game at all. They can run the ball into the end zone (Rock Cartwright), but they need the QB to get the ball in the red zone to do so. Washington has to be considered a big disappointment, but they are improving and could be a better team next year from their experiences this year. Ramsey is as tough a QB as you will find. Did you see the hit Jason Taylor laid on this kid last week (knocking him out of the game)? I thought I was watching the replay of Hulk Hogan versus Stone Cold Steve Austin, except Ramsey looked more like, well, a crumpled car accident victim than Hogan or Austin. He'll have a tough go again this week as the Saints are bringing a tough pass D: currently ranked 9th in the NFL, allowing 184 yards a game and having gained 24 sacks thus far. They can get after the QB, but if Ramsey can find Coles and get his passes off then the chances improve dramatically. The Skins have only 7 interceptions, a fairly small number. They have some talented backs, but I don't know if they have an answer for Laveranues Coles. All the pressure will be on Coles in this one: if the Skins hope to win, they have to pass the ball and Coles is their go-to guy. You know the Saints are going to play control the clock football, using Deuce early and often and running the ball at least 25 times. If the Skins can't stop him, and they can't get the passing game going, this game should go the way of the Saints. The wild card is the running game for Washington. No one has stepped up to take the role of the leading rusher for this team. The Saints currently rank 27th versus the rush, giving up 140 yards a game with 10 TD's allowed. If the Skins could run the ball, they could take the fight to the Saints and make a real game of this. Too bad, I don't think the Skins can take advantage. I don't care for Trung Candidate, his lack of production, or his fumbles. I do like Rock Cartwright, and I'm sure I'll be sitting in front of the tube this Sunday yelling, "Hey Spurrier, why don't your try Cartwright you stupid c**** sm****." And then the wife will….. never mind. I'm taking the Saints. Deuce is too much, and the passing D is too good for Washington to break. Besides, take a look at Washington's home record: W-L-W-L-W. They are due for their loss, and I think the Saints can serve it up nicely for them.

LATE NEWS: Tim Hasselback has been officially named the starter for the Skins. We'll see how he does, but I wouldn't expect much.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Deuce McAllister, Joe Horn, John Carney, Laveranues Coles, John Hall

2nd String: Aaron Brooks, Donte Stallworth (Doubtful), Saint Defense, Tim Hasselback, Trung Candidate, Rock Cartwright (Questionable), Rod Gardner, Darnerien McCants (Questionable)

Prediction: Saints 20, Skins 14

Kansas City (10-1) at San Diego (2-9) 4:15 PM
It seems one of the hot topics this week's in the media has been the Chiefs: are they the best team in football, or are they the luckiest team in football? I'll say this: no team in the history of professional football gets to 10 wins on "luck," but I do believe there is not one definitive, outstanding team in the NFL right now. The Chiefs have had a great season thus far, but they do have weaknesses and they also have 3 teams (Tennessee, New England, Indianapolis) right on their heels. The Chiefs do have some problems and they are likely to find at least another loss or two this season. Unfortunately, I sincerely doubt this is the week for one of them. Priest Holmes had been struggling in recent weeks, but he broke out another nice game last week versus the Raiders (as he should have, the Raiders are horrible versus the run) rushing for 91 yards and a TD. Much like the Raiders, the Bolts are struggling to stop opponents from running the ball. I believe Holmes could run well against anyone, and I KNOW he can run big against this San Diego team (he ran for 85 yards and 2 TD's in Week 1, not to mention the 98 yards receiving). The really bad news for San Diego is that they defend the passing game even worse than the rushing: they currently rank 29th versus the passing game, giving up 235 yards a game (including 26 passing TD's allowed thus far, easily the worst number in football). It's a good idea to pass on the green cheese at lunch, it's a good idea to keep your condoms away from your sewing machine, and it's a good idea to start Trent Green and Tony Gonzalez against this pathetic defense (Green went for 295 and 1 TD in their previous match up). The Chiefs may have struggled in recent weeks, but this is a great opportunity to regain their early season form and pick up a convincing win.

San Diego has shown flashes of their potential at times this year, but they haven't put it together as a team very often. It is obvious their offensive drive has to come from LaDainian Tomlinson: he's one of the most talented and powerful young running backs in the NFL. If he gets his carries he can keep his team competitive and make things easier for Flutie and Brees. Flutie has helped bring a little more consistency to the Bolts offense, but the difference isn't much and the outcome is still the same as it was under Brees. David Boston showed up last week, and that's about the 5th time he has decided to do so this year. It would be helpful if he could stay on the field and make a contribution every week. This team will have a chance to get some production this week as the KC defense isn't playing as well as they had earlier in the season. They currently rank 17th versus the pass (210 yds/game), but their main weakness is against the run, currently ranked 26th giving up 134 yards a game. This could be a great game for Tomlinson to take over and let it all hang out. Too bad it won't happen! The real questions are can KC get out to an early lead, and can their defense get some turnovers? It is a FACT that Coach Marty Schottenheimer will completely give up on running the ball once his team gets behind. He's done it all year long, and it's become a major factor of consideration when picking your fantasy RB's. If the Chiefs can jump on this team early (they will), pick up some fumbles or interceptions (they haven't done this in recent games and it has been the major difference for this defense in comparing the early season success to their recent struggles), and get a nice lead early (they will), the Bolts will completely abandon Tomlinson as a RB (he may get some passes) and they will start chuckin' the ball. This hasn't worked yet, and it hasn't worked during the course of Schottenheimer's 110-year career, but he continues to do it and he continues to lose. Mark it down: KC will dominate this game and use the Bolts to remind the rest of the NFL that they are in fact an upper echelon team.

Key Fantasy Players
1st String: Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, LaDainian Tomlinson

2nd String: KC Defense, Johnnie Morton, Eddie Kennison, Morten Andersen, Doug Flutie, David Boston, Eric Parker, Steve Christie, Bolt Defense

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bolts 14

Cleveland (4-7) at Seattle (7-4) 4:15 PM
The Browns are one tough team to figure out (man, I've said that about a handful of teams now!). Two weeks ago Kelly Holcomb did his best Joe Montana impersonation and led his team to a 38-point drumming of Arizona. This last week, Cleveland couldn't get any offense going at all and managed only 6 points versus Pittsburgh. I realize the Pitt D is 10 times better than Zona, but you would think the Browns could carry some kind of consistency into those games. I guess that would be the difference between 3 TD's and 0 INT's versus 0 TD's and 2 picks. One good note was James Jackson. He's turning into a solid running threat, and produced an impressive 94 yards against a tough Pitt D. Too bad he couldn't get into the end zone! Did you see the 3 goal line plays in which he was stopped short ALL 3 TIMES?! That is a little worrisome. They could have a rough go again this week in Seattle. The weather will be surprising nice in Seattle for this time of year, but the Seattle D is capable of putting up a good fight. However, they have slipped somewhat in recent weeks against the pass: they have fallen to the 20th spot, giving up 215 yards a game and 16 passing TD's. They have been killed with penalties. Marcus Trufant must have really pissed off someone in the referee ranks as it seems he's called for ticky tack interference fouls way too often (I agree Seattle fans, some of those calls versus Baltimore on Trufant were horrible). I still like Trufant and feel he's part of a solid passing D, so I'm not going to put too much weight on those defensive stats. They are capable of shutting down almost anyone and though they did let Anthony Wright ring 'em up I feel they will bounce back at home and perform well versus Holcomb, Davis, and Morgan. That said, we should take a hard look at the rushing D, currently ranked 19th in the league (118 yds/game). Big stats to note: they have allowed only 8 rushing TD's thus far and have all but shut down the long runs (only 4 for 20+ yards thus far, 3rd best number in the league). I don't believe Jackson will have the same success he had last week, and this makes the offensive outlook for Cleveland a little suspect.

How did Seattle give up that huge lead last week?! What a breakdown, and they have to be just a bit upset with themselves. Therefore, you can look for Seattle come out firing on the Browns at home this weekend. All the receivers for Seattle had nice showings, and I'm sure most of you noticed Darrell Jackson seemed to regain his form while Koren Robinson struggled once again (he did have 64 yards, but I'm qualifying that as yet another disappointment even with the TD). The Hawks have also gotten a nice boost from Bobby Engram in recent weeks both as a receiver (2 TD's last week) and return man (1 punt return for a TD). Matt Hasselback has been on a role: 19 TD's versus only 8 picks and he's completing 60% of his passes. He may have a tougher time this weekend versus the tough Cleveland passing D, allowing only 167 yards a game and having allowed only 8 passing TD's thus far. Although the Cleveland D is tough, the Hawks bring a lot of fire power to the table as they are loaded at WR and can throw all over the field. They may have too many guys to cover for Cleveland, and I would expect they could hurt those defensive stats this weekend. All said, I still wish the Seahawks would run the ball more. Shaun Alexander has been solid, and he's fumbled only twice this year (losing only 1 of those). Yet he hasn't gotten more than 24 carries in a game yet, and his number of carries is almost always closer to 20. I'm a big rush guy, and I want a RB of his caliber to get more like 30 carries a game. Say what you like, but if Alexander had gotten more carries last week I think Seattle could have held Baltimore at bay, and this is the problem I have with the West Coast style of play. That said, I think Alexander will have another nice day versus Cleveland. He plays well at home, Cleveland has given up more than a few long runs (8 over 20 yards so far), and though they give up an average of only 117 yards on total on the year, if you break down the numbers on the road the average jumps to 133 yards. They just don't perform as well on the road against teams with a good running game (KC and Baltimore most notably). Expect the Hawks to bounce back this week (remember, they may have lost last week but they posted 41 points versus a much tougher Baltimore defense), and they will take this win as a step into the tough -looking last part of their schedule (after this they travel to Minnesota, then to St. Louis, both tough teams at home). The Hawks are trying to hold off the Niners as well as catch up to the Rams, so this game is a must-win situation. Take the Seahawks by a respectable margin.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselback, Darrell Jackson (Questionable), Josh Brown, Seattle Defense

2nd String: Kelly Holcomb, Andre Davis, Koren Robinson, Bobby Engram, Quincy Morgan, James Jackson, Dennis Northcutt, Phil Dawson, Cleveland Defense, Maurice Morris, Itula Mili

Prediction: Browns 13, Seahawks 27

Denver (6-5) at Oakland (3-8) 4:15 PM
Sometimes, to break the humm drumm of my day, I'll peruse the classifieds of my local paper (I live in Denver), and this week I noticed a couple of items that made me laugh. Here's the add: "LOST: Denver Broncos' Season. May have relocated with visiting team from the Midwest." How this team managed to lose to the Bears isn't as unimaginable as you may think. You can start with the 6 balls dropped by Ashley Lelie. His hands must have taken the day off, because he couldn't hold on to anything. Maybe it's not fair to say the Broncos are out of the race just yet: if they win 4 out of 5 and get some help from others, they could still have a whiff at the wild card. Chicago actually looked more comfortable in the cold weather (high of 18 degrees that day) than Denver! Good thing the Broncos will end their season at Green Bay, both teams likely to be hurting for a win for a playoff berth. Anyway, that's down the road. This week the Broncos travel to Oakland, and most people have labeled this game as a possible upset. Both teams hate each other, the history has been rehashed so many times I won't bother. The truth is Denver should still dominate this game. The Raiders still sports the 3rd worst rushing D in the NFL (147 yds/game, 14 TD's allowed), and even with the bruised heel Clinton Portis should be able to run well versus this team. The Silver and Black have improved slightly against the pass: now they rank 26th in the league (218 yds/game). The number that really stands out is the sacks: only 15 thus far. They get NO QB pressure at all, and if you leave Jake the Snake too much time he can kill you downfield (as long as Lelie can catch it, and even if he can't I know Rod Smith can). It seems a forgone conclusion that the Broncos are going to score points. With Oakland's lack-luster defense giving up 23 points a game, I wouldn't bet otherwise.

Rick Mirer has been surprising effective in his role as reliever thus far. Of course, it would be thoughtless to not mention Tyrone Wheatley as well, another guy performing well in the relief role. This team is just riddled with injuries, and it's amazing how well the healthy players have performed. Too bad they keep losing. The offense they are producing has been better than the Raiders of the early season, but it still hasn't been enough to overcome the defensive problems of this team. The good news is the Raiders will be getting a damaged defense at home this weekend. Not only have the Raiders already lost starting LB's John Mobley and Ian Gold already, but now it looks like the only healthy LB left from the starting ranks, Al Wilson, is likely to miss the game as well (neck injury). Oakland should be able to take advantage of this with the power running game of Wheatley, but once again it's safe to say that Wheat can't do it alone. Denver, despite some problems at the corners, has been surprisingly effective on pass defense. They currently rank 5th in the NFL, giving up only 172 yards a game and have collected 25 sacks. They should give Mirer a hard time, and they better. Like I said, the corners and coverage on WR's have been a problem (only 7 interceptions thus far for Denver). If they can't cover Porter, Rice, and Brown the Raiders could make a game of this one. If Wheatley can do his thing and the passing game gets going, maybe Oakland can try to keep up on the scoreboard with the Broncos. I sincerely doubt it: it's asking too much of this injury-plagued team, and I know the defense won't stop Portis from doing his thing. This alone leans me towards Denver. Throw in the need for redemption after the Chicago loss, the need for a win to have any hope of the post season (Oakland is done for sure), the fact Jake Plummer is healthy, and the pure hatred Mike Shannahan has for his former Raiders, and you have to go with Denver. It may be closer than you would think, but take the Broncos for the win. They can't blow two games in a row to bad teams…. can they?

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Clinton Portis, Jake Plummer, Tyrone Wheatley, Shannon Sharpe (Questionable), Rod Smith, Sebastian Janikowski

2nd String: Ashley Lelie, Jason Elam, Denver Defense, Rick Mirer, Charlie Garner (Doubtful), Jerry Porter, Teyo Johnson, Raider Defense

Prediction: Broncos 21, Raiders 17

Tampa Bay (5-6) at Jacksonville (2-9) Sun 8:30 PM
I guess the Bucs really wanted to show all of us they wouldn't miss Meshawn. Point taken, and in more ways than one. Tell me the Bucs didn't look for Charles Lee all night? I know McCardell had more catches, but it seemed odd to me that Lee got so many looks! He took advantage of his opportunity and could be a solid player for a team desperate for some playmakers. The Bucs needed a win like I needed a bourbon (did you see all those close games?! CRAZY WEEK!), and we both made out. Now the Bucs come to in-state rival Jacksonville in hopes of continuing the good luck and hopes of a playoff game. It was a big relief to see Brad Johnson break out of his little mini-slump and throw for some big yards (269). Johnson started off so hot and then lost it all somehow. I would argue the recent emergence of Thomas Jones as a good running threat helps tremendously. Pittman still gets the bulk of the opportunities, but Jones has finally started to show his abilities and put up some nice runs. I know Jones has a reputation, but I like the guy for wanting to play and wanting to be a contributor. I feel he could be, along with Joe Jurevicius, a key component if Tampa can claw there way back into playoff contention. If the Bucs hope to do so, they had better bring their A game to J-ville this weekend. The Jags may be 2 & 9, but they don't play like it. Their defense has improved with each passing week: they may still give up too many passing yards (216/game, 17 passing TD's allowed, ouch), but they have become very solid against the run. They currently rank 3rd in the NFL at stopping opposing rushers, allowing an average of only 86 yards a game and only 4 runs of 20+ yards or more. The key is to get in the red zone with the pass: they have allowed 9 rushing TD's, most of them in red zone situations. Let me mention one guy: John Henderson. He's in his second year and he's one of the best young talents that you rarely hear about. He has 6.5 tackles for yardage losses thus far: he can smell the RB and he can bring 'em down. It helps to have Tony Brackens there, but Henderson is a true talent and he and his teammates could make things very hard for Pittman and Jones this weekend. It will be on the passing game again, and Brad Johnson & Keenan McCardell are looking like decent starters for your fantasy squads.

Here are a few statements, tell me what they have in common. (1) Jessica Simpson is not so bright, and it makes her even sexier. (2) Pizza off the floor is still ok to eat, and the 3-second rule doesn't apply except in extremely bad circumstances (like if you dropped it at the gas station). (3) The best thing about Thanksgiving is the football, the food, the naps, the football, the food, the leftovers, the day off, the football, the start of deer season, the food, and the pie. (4) The Bucs need a strong defensive game to win 99% of the time. So, did you figure it out? They are all statements that are painfully obvious, and the Bucs had better bring it on defense this week to get the playoff chase rolling right. If you look at the schedule thus far, you'll notice that only two teams have really contained Fred Taylor: Tennessee & Miami. Taylor had only 9 carries versus the Titans, so I'm throwing that out and stating that Taylor is the man. He has carried this team as much as possible and has done it with minor injuries for most of the year. You better believe the Bucs will key on T: Tampa may not be what they once were, but they are holding teams to 110 rushing yards a game, they have allowed only 6 rushing TD's, and they have the speed and size to get to Taylor for losses. This brings us to the QB. Here's another news spot to add to the list of stupid moves this year: Coach Del Rio has stated he is considering starting David Garrard in this game. Now, he says he's concerned about Byron Leftwich's turnovers. Well, he's a rookie, and rookie QB's turn the ball over. Maybe he's really worried that Simeon Rice will break Lefty's leg again and he'd rather lose Garrard. That's the only sense I see in the move, unless it's just a move for change's sake. Truth be told, Del Rio knows the Tampa D will take it hard to Leftwich: the Bucs have the 3rd best passing D in the NFL, they allow only 172 yards a game, they are 2nd in interceptions (19), they have allowed only 9 passing TD's, and Rice leads the league in sacks (12). I was right: Del Rio would rather have Garrard in for all the wrong reasons! Jacksonville is not a good team, and though Taylor is likely to find some success it won't be enough. The pass D is too good and they are looking to boost their coach and take care of business. Take the Bucs, and it won't be too exciting.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Brad Johnson, Keenan McCardell, Joe Jurevicius, Buc Defense, Fred Taylor

2nd String: Joe Jurevicius, Michael Pittman, Thomas Jones, Todd Yoder, Martin Gramatica, LaBrandon Toefield, Seth Marler, Byron Leftwich, Jimmy Smith, Kevin Johnson, Kyle Brady, Jag Defense

Prediction: Bucs 20, Jags 13

Tennessee (9-2) at NY Jets (4-7) Mon 9:00 PM
You mean to tell me that your going to give me the Fins and Boys on Thursday, then make me wait till MONDAY to get this game? Am I the only one this stoked to see this game? Maybe I'm a closet Jets fan and just don't realize it, or maybe it's the Titans that are playing tricks on my mind. There are some great games this weekend, and this is definitely a great way to ice the cake. The Titans come in riding the wave of success, having won 6 straight (some close calls, but a win is a win) and being called the best team in the game by many of the experts. One problem: Steve McNair may miss this game with a strained calf muscle. McNair is not only the spoon mixing the Titan's drink, he's the liquor and mix and lime and ice and cup. We won't know if he's in or not until game time, and if he's out it will greatly hamper the efforts of his team. Billy Volek isn't a bad backup, but he won't strike fear in this already tough Jets' passing defense. It's no secret the Jets have a nice pass D, and it's an even more obvious that this same team has the worst rushing D in football. If you look at almost ANY start 'em & sit 'em list, you will notice that whatever RB is playing against the Jets is the first "Start 'Em" in the group. Here's my problem with this: I don't trust Eddie George at all. He's had 2 decent games this year, and he's just a shadow of what he was 2 years ago. I've been begging to see more Chris Brown, and I doubt I get it this week once again. I'd like to say that George will light up this Jets' D, but I'd be a liar if I did. On the contrary, I think you will see the Jets play better against the run this week, and that is why Steve McNair needs to play. He'll be in, just look at his track record. He's one of those rare players that can limp around all week and not practice, then come in on Sunday and play like Johnny Unitas. If the Titans surprise me with a balance of George and Brown, I think they will run well and get plenty of yards. However, if McNair is out, it won't matter either way.

Man I love to watch Chad Pennington. Screw objectivity: this kid is amazing. He struggled the entire game last week, but the Jets hung in and on the last drive Penny had no problems leading his team down and scoring to Santana Moss for the win. The kid is brilliant, he's confident, and he's got the best mental game in the NFL (and yes, I'm including Peyton Manning in my consideration). He is capable of keeping the Jets in any game, and his record thus far proves it. He's rejuvenated Curtis Martin, he's made the TE spot by Becht more effective again, he's made Moss look great, he's made the defense improve (how, I'm not sure, but they have played better overall; maybe I'm going too far with that one!). That is why this game COULD be so great: McNair and Pennington, nose-to-nose, QB battle extravaganza! The Titan's D will have something to say about that. Is it just me, or does Jevon Kearse have the wingspan of a small leer jet? His arms are longer than my legs. He anchors one of more potent defensive units in the NFL right now: they rank 12th in points allowed (19/game) and are the best at stopping the run (71 yds/game, only 6 TD's and only TWO runs for 20+ yards!). Guess C-Mart may not have a good game! However, this D may set up nicely for Penny: the Titans have the 3rd WORST passing D in the NFL (235 yds/game). If they let Penny get downfield, he can hand a win on 'em. But don't jump to that yet! The Titans do have 13 interceptions and 28 sacks, so it's not that they don't get QB pressure, they just don't cover as well as they might like. They will make you pay for your mistakes, and though Penny isn't one for interceptions, he has struggled with the pick bug a bit thus far and he could have a rough ride this weekend. I think he'll fight through, keep it close. If McNair doesn't go, I'd be very tempted to take the Jets at home on Monday Night. However, I think McNair is in, and he wouldn't miss this game for anything. Unless he's on crutches, he'll be in, and that swings the advantage to the Titans so badly that I have to take 'em. This will be a fun game, and Penny to Moss will make it interesting, but take McNair and company in a close one.

Key Fantasy Players

1st String: Steve McNair (Questionable), Derrick Mason, Gary Anderson, Chad Pennington, Santana Moss, Anthony Becht, Doug Brien

2nd String: Titan Defense, Eddie George, Chris Brown, Justin McCareins, Tyrone Calico, Curtis Martin, Curtis Conway, Jet Defense, LaMont Jordan

Prediction: Titans 28, Jets 23

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Remember to get your lineups in early, your turkey in later (to allow for uninterrupted football viewing), and top it all of with a good bourbon for good measure!