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Whitehurst, Quinn, Delhomme, Larry Johnson—Fantasy Impact


By: — March 19, 2010 @ 1:12 pm
Filed under: Free Agents

With the NFL free agent market cooling off until the restricted free agent market heats up, the number of important unrestricted free agent signings has slowed to a trickle. However, teams continue to fill their personnel needs for the 2010 season with more modest acquisitions through free agency and trades.

That the free agent market has included so few key signings comes as no surprise given teams’ increased propensity to retain their own free agents over the last few years, and the breakdown of labour negotiations which resulted in 2010 being an uncapped year. The latter point severely reduced the number of unrestricted free agents on the market due to players now requiring six years of experience before qualifying for unrestricted status.

Despite that, there were a number of interesting moves this week that will have fantasy implications for the 2010 season. Some of the players that changed teams this week could provide surprise fantasy value.


Charlie Whitehurst Traded to Seattle

This one qualifies as the most intriguing transaction of the week with the Seattle Seahawks swapping 2nd round picks in this year’s rookie draft and also giving up a 3rd round pick in 2011 to San Diego to acquire Charlie Whitehurst.

The ‘Hawks drop 20 spots in the 2nd round and also have reportedly agreed to a contract extension for Whitehurst that pays him $5 million per season.

Teams don’t pay backups $5 million a season unless they are all but guaranteed to become starters. With Seattle in a rebuilding mode under new head coach Pete Carroll and an injury-prone Matt Hasselbeck hitting 35 early in the season, there’s little doubt Whitehurst will be behind center at some point in 2010 barring a Seattle early season resurgence.

Whitehurst is an unknown commodity, not having thrown a regular season pass during his four years in the league. With the team’s offense expected to struggle and being led by an aging Hasselbeck or the inexperienced Whitehurst, you should downgrade the team’s wide receivers and tight end John Carlson. They carry significant fantasy risk with little upside given the quarterback situation.

Is Whitehurst a sleeper in Seattle? Not in 2010 and maybe not in dynasty leagues given the team’s aging starting wide receivers T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch.


Delhomme to Start in Cleveland

If the Whitehurst situation was intriguing, this one is the head scratcher of the week. Cleveland trades a former 1st round pick in Brady Quinn, who never really had much of a chance to succeed, for a fullback, a 2011 6th round pick and a conditional pick in 2012. They also dumped former Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Anderson.

They did this all for the chance to install Delhomme as the team’s starting quarterback on a 2 year deal for a reported $7 million a season. This for a player who has over his last 12 games, thrown for 2,220 yards, nine touchdowns and 23 interceptions while completing less than 55% of his passes.

As with the Seattle wide receivers, avoid Cleveland’s wideouts and tight ends in 2010. In fact, the only useful offensive fantasy player on the roster is running back Jerome Harrison.


Quinn Traded to the Broncos

The Broncos gave up little to acquire Quinn and he will enter training camp with a chance to unseat Kyle Orton as the team’s starting quarterback in 2011. While Quinn has been dismal as a pro, there should be little argument with the notion that he had little to work with in Cleveland, particularly in 2009.

Of course, the other side of the argument is that there’s nothing to suggest that he’s bound for success in Denver in 2010 or even that he’ll push Orton to the bench. However, head coach Josh McDaniels may have seen enough from Orton to know that after five years in the league he’s not about to relinquish his role as a game manager.

Here’s betting that McDaniels gives Quinn every opportunity to win the job and that he does. Quinn’s motivation has never been questioned and it’s possible that the better supporting cast that resides in Denver will propel him from the fantasy backwaters to being a useful fantasy backup quarterback.

Orton was the 16th ranked quarterback in 2009, the team has talented young playmakers on offense and a solid, young offensive line so if Brandon Marshall returns, whoever wins the starting job could provide some upside to your fantasy squad next year.


Derek Anderson Signs with Arizona

Jettisoned by the Browns, Anderson quickly found a home with the Arizona Cardinals. The former Pro Bowl quarterback figures to play behind Matt Leinart, but there are mixed signals coming from the team’s coaching staff regarding where Anderson fits in.

A week ago Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt noted that Leinart would be the team’s anointed starter after he goes to three Pro Bowls and wins a Super Bowl. Then after Anderson signed, Whisenhunt claimed that Leinart was the starter.

However, Anderson’s deal is significant for a backup and reports indicate that it includes $7.25 million over two years with the chance to earn up to $18 million. While Leinart may be the starter heading into camp, Anderson’s deal suggests that the team certainly felt they needed competition for Leinart.

That should come as no surprise given his history off the field as well as his performance on it over the last few years.

Nonetheless, Leinart figures to win the job out of training camp and his fantasy situation is solid given the team’s cast of offensive skill position players, even with the departure of wide receiver Anquan Boldin to the Ravens.

However, while his fantasy situation is solid, he has done little to suggest that he is about to become an elite level quarterback overnight. More likely, he will struggle at times in 2010 and the team will almost certainly look to increase the use of their running attack behind 2009 1st round pick Chris Wells.

Leinart figures to be a mid to low end backup fantasy quarterback in 2010, albeit one with upside. In dynasty leagues, he’s certainly worth taking a chance on.


Johnson Signs on to Backup Portis in Washington

Former Chief Larry Johnson signed a two year deal for the chance to compete for playing time in Washington behind starter Clinton Portis. While Johnson has been an enigma for his entire career and is perhaps the most overrated fantasy running back over the last decade with just two 1,000 yard seasons out of seven in the league, his performance over the last few years hasn’t been as horrible as some would suggest.

He averaged 4.5 yards per carry in 2008 and would have topped 1,000 yards had he not missed four games due to his off the field transgressions. While his performance last year was poor, it seems clear that he is a player that plays best when his back is against the wall or when he is challenged.

His best years in the league came when he had to beat Priest Holmes out of the starting spot in Kansas City. In Washington, his career is on the line and he will be out of the league unless his performs.

In Washington, they might consider him the oldest running back on the roster since at 30, he is two years older than Clinton Portis. However, he’s carried the ball 775 fewer times in his career. He’s worth taking a flier on but certainly not worth reaching for.


Tomlinson Jets to New York—Fantasy Impact


By: — March 15, 2010 @ 9:09 am
Filed under: Free Agents

After a short free agent tour that saw him take trips to Minnesota and New York, LaDainian Tomlinson flew home to San Diego to mull his options and has chosen to join the New York Jets in 2010. Reports indicate he will sign a 2 year deal for over $5 million.

Tomlinson was looking for a chance to play on a contending team in 2010 but also wanted to be in a situation where he had the potential to get 10-15 carries a game. It should come as no surprise that he chose to sign with a Jets team that relies heavily on the run and features a much less proven number one guy relative to the Vikings. The Vikings also sport a solid passing game with Brett Favre at the helm.

The Jets were in the market for a veteran back after failing to renegotiate the final year on Thomas Jones’ contract and watching him move to Kansas City. Tomlinson’s signing may also be an indication that the team is concerned about Leon Washington’s recovery from a broken right fibula.

With Washington also a restricted free agent, the move to acquire Tomlinson now allows the Jets to consider taking draft pick compensation if another team signs Washington to an offer sheet they deem to be excessive. Washington was tendered at the 2nd round pick level.

Reports out of San Francisco indicate the 49ers are interested in a running back who can returns kicks. Washington is another logical destination for Leon Washington.


Fantasy Impact

In New York, Tomlinson joins a Jets team that led the league in rushing in 2010 with 2,756 yards and carries with 607, 140 more than the Vikings. Clearly, the Jets represented his best opportunity to get on the field and this in turns positively impacts his fantasy value.

Unfortunately he is coming off the worst year of his career with 730 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns while averaging 3.3 yards per attempt. In addition, he had just 154 yards receiving, well off his career average of 475 entering the season.

Fantasy wise the issue is, what does he have left? In considering Tomlinson’s performance, what is often overlooked is the deteriorating play of the Chargers’ offensive line over the last two seasons.

The Jets possess perhaps the league’s best run blocking offensive line. Last year, counting the game where Washington was injured, Shonn Greene averaged over 10 carries per game backing up Jones. Expect Tomlinson to average at least that many touches due to his superior receiving ability, something that kept Greene off the field in certain situations.

Tomlinson figures to approach but not exceed the 730 yards he had in 2009 with fewer than the 12 touchdowns he posted last year. Look for 600-650 yards and four to six touchdowns. If Washington goes elsewhere, Tomlinson also becomes the team’s receiving back. For Greene’s owners, he is a must have handcuff.

Greene was pegged as a low end RB2 with upside and he slides down a couple of spots in the rankings. He remains a solid option in all fantasy leagues but his value takes a hit due to the acquisition of Tomlinson and his lack of touches in the passing game. Greene failed to catch a pass in the regular season as a rookie. He caught one in three playoff games.


Antonio Bryant to Bengals—Fantasy Impact


By: — March 11, 2010 @ 1:37 pm
Filed under: Free Agents

Almost one year after signing Laveranues Coles to be the team’s starting wide receiver opposite Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals have signed former Buc Antonio Bryant to provide the production Coles failed to. Bryant has signed for a reported $28 million over four years.

Bryant is coming off a down year in Tampa Bay which was partly due to knee surgery during training camp. The Bucs also used inexperienced quarterbacks for most of the year. In 13 games, he had 39 receptions for 600 yards and four touchdowns.

The Bengals are hoping that his knee is fully recovered and that he can duplicate his career year in 2008 when he had 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns, all career highs. The team struggled in the passing game in 2009, finishing 26th in yards passing while featuring the league’s 9th best running attack.

Although Bryant isn’t a true burner, he is a strong, physical receiver who is adept at making acrobatic catches and is capable of getting deep, as evidenced by his career average yards per catch of 15.4.


Fantasy Impact

In Cincinnati, Bryant joins a team that morphed from being a passing team to a running team during the 2009 season. The team averaged just 181 yards passing last year and quarterback Carson Palmer had his worst year statistically since his second year in the league (excluding his injury shortened 2008 season).

With the Bengals making the playoffs using an offense based heavily on the run, there is little reason to suggest they will change that in 2010. Bryant figures to be more productive than Coles, who clearly lost a step in 2009, or Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson, 2nd year players last year who clearly were not ready for feature roles.

Bryant figures to slot in as a fantasy WR4 or WR5 with upside. However, look for him to be drafted higher than that based on his strong 2008 campaign and perhaps the unfounded belief that the Bengals will revert back to their pass happy ways. A season of 750 yards and 4-6 touchdowns seems likely.

Bryant’s presence should have no effect on Ochocinco but certainly hinders the prospects of Caldwell and Simpson as well as Matt Jones. Caldwell figures to get the work out of the slot with Jones being used more in the red zone. Simpson might be looking for employment elsewhere in 2010.

As for Palmer, his status as a fantasy backup remains unchanged. Ignore these stats at your own peril—only nine games with over 200 yards passing, one game with over 300 yards passing and just five multi-touchdown games. He moves up in the rankings with Bryant on board but remains a low end backup at this point.


Thomas Jones Joins Chiefs—Fantasy Impact


By: — March 10, 2010 @ 10:53 am
Filed under: Free Agents

Kansas City has made its second major move in free agency, this time signing former Jets running back Thomas Jones to a 2 year contract for a reported $5 million. Jones’ signing comes on the heels of the team re-signing wide receiver Chris Chambers. The moves help solidify an offense that struggled during most of 2009.

Released by the Jets because of the emergence of Shonn Greene and because the team didn’t want to pay close to $6 million to a backup, Jones was one of the most sought after unrestricted free agent running backs.

The 31 year old player is coming off a career year in 2009, having amassed 1,402 yards rushing to go along with 14 touchdowns. During his three year stint in New York, Jones had 4,315 total yards and 31 touchdowns.

At an age where most running backs are wearing down significantly, Jones has been highly productive. Although he has topped 296 or more touches in each of the last six years, his highest number of touches during his first four years in the league was just 161. He is known for his heavy workout regime and that is a key factor in his success this late in his career.

In Kansas City, Jones figures to serve as the backup to Jamaal Charles, a dynamic young player who excelled in 2009 once given the chance to unseat Larry Johnson. The Chiefs obviously felt he was too young or, at 5’11”, 197 pounds, too small to carry the full load at the position, hence their signing of Jones, a more powerful back that Charles. The Chiefs also considered signing Willie Parker or Justin Fargas.


Fantasy Impact

The player with the biggest impact from this signing isn’t Jones because he was clearly going to carve out a role as either a starter or quality backup with potential goal line duties wherever he signed.

Charles figures to lose out significantly from a fantasy perspective with Jones now his backup. With Jones likely to assume the goal line work and get significant carries spelling Charles, Charles’ role will be significantly reduced from what it was over the last half of the 2009 season.

Simply put, Charles is a quality receiver who will likely get all of the work on passing downs, but the lack of goal line work means he can no longer be considered a low end RB1 or high end RB2. At this point, he should be considered a low end RB2 with upside in 12 team leagues or a high quality RB3 in 10 team leagues.

As for Jones, he figures to rush for between 700-800 yards and score 6-8 touchdowns in 2010. That production means he slots in as a RB3 in all leagues and becomes a desirable handcuff for Charles owners.


Walter Sticks With Texans—Fantasy Impact


By: — March 8, 2010 @ 12:53 pm
Filed under: Free Agents

With his primary anticipated free agent bidder the Baltimore Ravens out of the picture, wide receiver Kevin Walter chose to re-sign with the Houston Texans over the weekend.

Since the top available free agent wide receivers are generally either restricted or unrestricted players with baggage, Walter was rumoured to be a target for numerous teams with the Ravens a strong candidate to acquire his services.

However, Baltimore acquired Anquan Boldin from the Arizona Cardinals for a pair of mid-round picks and the market for Walter never seemed to materialize. Reports indicate he signed a $21.5 million, 5 year contract that includes $8 million in guarantees. The deal is slightly less than Nate Burleson’s 5 year, $25 million deal with the Detroit Lions.

Walter missed the first two games of last season with a hamstring injury which may explain why he was not able to duplicate the career year he enjoyed in 2008. His production dropped from 899 yards and eight touchdowns to just 611 yards and two touchdowns in 2009. His average yards per catch also dropped from 15.0 to 11.5.


Fantasy Impact

Walter’s fantasy prospects were almost certainly enhanced by re-upping with the Texans. The team is familiar with what he brings to the table – reliability, a willingness to go over the middle and block in the running game and the occasional big play. The Texans are a pass heavy team and a move to another team would likely have relegated him to a more minor role.

In Houston, with tight end Owen Daniels coming off a torn ACL and backup wide receiver Jacoby Jones having yet to earn the trust of the coaching staff, Walter should record between 700-800 receiving yards and 4-6 touchdowns.

The speedster Jones could eat into Walter’s playing time but it speaks volumes that the club chose to re-sign Walter rather than hand the starting spot over to Jones even though Jones is entering his 4th year in the league.

Quarterback Matt Schaub also benefits from having three talented wide receivers in the team’s stable as well as quality 4th and 5th wide receivers in David Anderson and Andre’ Davis. Barring a return to form from third year player Steve Slaton, the team acquiring Thomas Jones or using 1st or 2nd round pick on a running back in the rookie draft, Schaub may once again lead the league in passing yards which makes him a possible top three fantasy quarterback.


Chester Taylor to Bears—Fantasy Impact


By: — March 5, 2010 @ 7:45 pm
Filed under: Free Agents

The Chicago Bears have bolstered their backfield with the free agent signing of former Minnesota Vikings running back Chester Taylor. Rumours have circulated over the past week that the Bears were after Taylor, who provides the team with a solid player to pair with incumbent Matt Forte while providing the added benefit of stealing a productive player from a division opponent.

Taylor, who has served as Adrian Peterson’s backup in Minnesota for the past three years, will sign for a reported $12.5 million over four years. He has hit the dreaded 30 year old mark for running backs but does not have a history of overuse. He topped 300 touches in 2006 but does not have another season with over 200 touches in his eight year career.

Forte was not able to duplicate the success he had as a rookie in 2008. Although part of his troubles were due to hamstring and knee injuries, the Bears entered the off-season desiring an upgrade at the position.

With Taylor, they acquire a player who was coveted by many teams for his versatility and was likely the second most sought after running back behind former Jet (and former Bear) Thomas Jones.


Fantasy Impact

The Bears backfield is now fantasy kryptonite with a pair of players featuring similar skills. Because of that, predicting their roles in 2010 will not be an easy task.

Both players are excellent receivers with Forte having caught 117 passes over two years and Taylor having four seasons of 40 or more receptions, including each of the last two years.

Although neither player is exceptionally shifty, they can both make defenders miss once they get past the line of scrimmage. Both players check in around the 215 pound mark so determining who gets the goal line work is also difficult, although Taylor runs with slightly more power.

Looking ahead to fantasy drafts in 2010, with Mike Martz now running the offense in Chicago, fantasy owners are going to want to get a piece of the Bears offense, likely driving up the stock of both Forte and Taylor.

Expect a committee approach with Forte retaining his starter role and assuming a larger share of the workload and Taylor spelling him and perhaps assuming the role of receiving back on third downs.

However, given Martz’ propensity for passing, Forte will still accumulate plenty of receptions. Based on that, both players are far more attractive in points per reception leagues than in standard performance leagues.

At this point, Forte checks in as a low end RB2 with upside and Taylor as a RB3 with upside. However, the smart fantasy owner who wants a piece of the Chicago offense should prefer quarterback Jay Cutler over both players.


Lions Sign Nate Burleson—Fantasy Impact


By: — @ 12:56 pm
Filed under: Free Agents

The Detroit Lions have made the first big splash in free agency, signing former Seahawks wide receiver Nate Burleson to a 5-year, $25 million contract.

The Lions have struggled to find production at the wide receiver position over recent years and their interest in a solid player to start opposite Calvin Johnson was well known. In Burleson, the Lions are getting arguably the most sought after unrestricted free agent on the market.

The 28 year old Burleson missed 15 games in 2008 after tearing knee ligaments during the opening game of the season but bounced back this year with 63 receptions for 812 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games. He suffered a high ankle sprain late in the season, causing him to miss the final three games of the season.

In Detroit, Burleson will push Bryant Johnson out of a starting spot and, given Johnson’s lack of use on special teams, perhaps off the roster. With the team looking to expand the role of 2009 3rd round pick Derrick Williams and Dennis Northcutt a solid slot receiver, Johnson may be looking for a new team in 2010.


Fantasy Impact

Burleson provides the Lions with a solid receiving threat opposite Johnson and his presence should help reduce the constant double teams that he sees. However, it’s doubtful that Burleson will improve his production substantially in Detroit given the presence of Johnson and second-year tight end Brandon Pettigrew, although a marginal increase can be expected if he can stay healthy for 16 games.

At this point, he should be considered a fantasy WR3 with upside given his big play ability and quarterback Matthew Stafford’s ability to throw the deep ball.

Stafford was already expected to put up better fantasy points in 2010 but this signing enhances his prospects for next season. With Burleson on board, Stafford now has three solid wide receivers, an emerging tight end and a solid pass catching running back in Kevin Smith, provided he is fully recovered from his ACL injury. Consider him a mid-tier backup fantasy quarterback with upside and a solid option in dynasty leagues.

In Seattle, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck figures to suffer with the loss of his top wide receiver but given his struggles in 2009, continuing injury concerns and lack of upside, he shouldn’t have been on your radar for 2010 anyway. Look for the Seahawks to add to their stable of wide receivers due to declining production of veterans T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch and the uneven play of 2009 3rd round pick Deon Butler in his rookie season.


Edge Signs With Seahawks


By: — August 25, 2009 @ 4:05 pm
Filed under: Free Agents

The Seattle Seahawks have signed former Cardinals and Colts running back Edgerrin James to a one year contract. The signing of James comes after the team struggled to run the ball in the pre-season, a trend that began last year. The deal is reportedly for one year and $2 million.

The 31-year old James is coming off the worst year of his illustrious 10 year career, with just 514 yards rushing and three TD. He lost his starting job to Tim Hightower part way through the season before reclaiming it and providing steady, if not spectacular, production during the team’s run to the Super Bowl.

With James on board, the Seahawks are expected to release T.J. Duckett and enter the season with Julius Jones, diminutive Justin Forsett and James as the team’s three running backs. His signing further magnifies general manager Tim Ruskell’s questionable decision not to pick a running back in this year’s rookie draft despite the team’s questionable depth at the position.

Fantasy Impact

It all starts up front with the offensive line and unfortunately for Seattle, they have already lost three-fifths of what was expected to be their starting offensive line. Left tackle Walter Jones is out indefinitely due to arthroscopic surgery on his left knee, center Chris Spencer is likely to miss one or two games with a slight tear in his right quadriceps and left guard Mike Wahle was released after failing his physical. If Spencer and Jones are not available on opening day, the team will go with a very inexperienced offensive line to start the season.

James is unlikely to have signed in Seattle without receiving at least some assurance that he would receive a reasonable amount of playing time. Unfortunately, his average yards per rush over the last three seasons were 3.4, 3.8 and 3.9 so it is clear that his big play ability has been extremely diminished. He has adapted his game to become more of an inside, straight ahead runner who avoids negative plays.

Look for James to back up Jones but get 8-12 carries per game and be the team’s short yardage option, a role he lost to Hightower in Arizona, and perhaps a late game closer. James is, at best, a solid handcuff to Jones but an interesting one because of Jones’ history of injuries and ineffectiveness.


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