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Projections & Rankings Update – 7/4/13


By: — July 4, 2013 @ 9:55 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 7/4/13

Not a lot of changes in this update as news has been slow in the NFL world this past week. Training camps are scheduled for the end of the month.

Quarterbacks

  • Michael Vick (-1) – The Eagles continue to play up the QB competition between Vick and Nick Foles, but I’d be shocked if Vick doesn’t get the starting nod in Week 1.

Running Backs

  • Danny Woodhead (+3) – Woodhead has sleeper PPR value and should play in the majority of third-down situations for the Chargers.
  • Dexter McCluster (+1) – Head coach Andy Reid has always been a fan of McCluster.
  • Montario Hardesty (+5) – Hardesty heads into training camp as the backup to Richardson in Cleveland.

Wide Receivers

  • Larry Fitzgerald (+2) – Getting more optimistic about Fitz’s return to WR1 territory.
  • Donnie Avery (-2) – Receiving yardage swap with Avery and McCluster.

Tight Ends

  • No changes.

Projections & Rankings Update – 6/27/13


By: — June 27, 2013 @ 1:21 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/27/13

We did an unscheduled update due to the release of Aaron Hernandez. It will be interesting to see what, if any, moves the Patriots make to bring receiving help for Brady.

Quarterbacks

  • Tom Brady (-1 TD) – I had already factored in a “down” year for Brady but the release of Hernandez is another kick in his fantasy football shin.

Running Backs

  • Ray Rice (-3) – Re-evaluated the split between Rice & Pierce.
  • Bernard Pierce (+11) – A valuable handcuff to Ray Rice with good upside.
  • Shane Vereen (+5) – No Hernandez means Vereen should be more involved in the passing game.

Wide Receivers

  • Julian Edelman (+37) – Stands to benefit most with Hernandez gone but has serious injury risk.
  • Aaron Dobson (+5) – Ripple effect bump with Hernandez gone.
  • LaVon Brazill (-6) – 4-game suspension kills his value early in the season.

Tight Ends

  • Aaron Hernandez (-75) – Hernandez’s fantasy value can fit inside a thimble and is restricted to dynasty leagues only.
  • Vernon Davis (+3) – Should finish a close second to Boldin in receiving yards and TDs.
  • Jake Ballard (+45) – Won’t post Hernandez-type numbers but worth considering as a TE2.
  • Michael Hoomanawanui (+19) – Hernandez ripple effect but has little value.

Projections & Rankings Update – 6/20/13


By: — June 20, 2013 @ 9:38 am
Filed under: Forecast

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/20/13

Some slight adjustments throughout but I’ll highlight the significant changes below.

Quarterbacks

  • Ben Roethlisberger (+2) – I think he’ll take a step back this season now that Wallace is gone, but he was initially ranked too low.
  • Cam Newton (-1) – More concern about new OC (Mike Shula) and his weak track record.

Running Backs

  • Ray Rice (-1) – He’s a better fit for Tier 2.
  • Reggie Bush (-2) – Slight adjustment to total rushing yards.
  • Darren McFadden (-1) – The more I read and study the Raiders the less optimistic I become.
  • Montee Ball (+1) – The release of McGahee was assumed in my initial rankings so the small bump is due to clarity.
  • Ahmad Bradshaw (+13) – Bradshaw finds a home in Indy.
  • Vick Ballard (-11) – Ripple effect of the Bradshaw signing.
  • Daryl Richardson (+20) – I flip-flopped Richardson and Pead. The Rams RB battle will be watched closely this summer.
  • Isaiah Pead (-15) – See Richardson above.
  • Travaris Cadet (#99) – First appearance in the rankings for the Saints RB.

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

  • Rob Gronkowski (-1) – Back surgery complete, questionable for Week 1. Risk is on the rise.
  • Aaron Hernandez (-2) – Yikes. Hernandez may free fall very soon depending on how this incident plays out. Stay tuned.
  • Fred Davis (+2) – Davis can be the #2 receiver if he can fully recover from his Achilles injury.
  • Kellen Winslow (#29) – Signed by the Jets and instantly becomes their #1 tight end.

Round 1 Surprises in June Mock


By: — June 10, 2013 @ 7:43 pm
Filed under: Mock Draft

Our annual June mock got rolling today and it was no surprise that Adrian Peterson was the first player off the board. It was also no surprise that 11 running backs and 1 wide receiver were taken in the first round.

This is a standard performance scoring draft and non-PPR which made the pick of Jamaal Charles at 1.02 very interesting. Dan’s reasoning?

“I considered Arian Foster at #2, and he was the one consistently being taken top-three that I dismissed. I like him, and he’s probably safe, but I’m that guy who isn’t comfortable with the nagging injuries, His receiving yards dropped last year, as well, and I am thinking that might be more a trend going forward. That raises the value of a Ray Rice, who was one of my other two serious considerations.”

Good enough. I suspect the addition of Andy Reid and constant chatter of Charles reaching career highs in receptions is pushing the KC running back up draft boards. We’ll see if the Charles hype continues over the summer. I suspect it will.

Charles was a mild surprise at 1.02, the pick of Steven Jackson at 1.11 by WhiteWonder was a jaw dropper, especially with a Alfred Morris still on the board. SJax is in a great situation in Atlanta but I’d prefer the younger RB on a run-first team.

Here’s the complete first round…

We’re off and running with our June mock and looking forward to more surprises in Round 2. You can follow the draft in our Mocking Station forum.


Projections & Rankings Update – 6/3/13


By: — June 3, 2013 @ 4:12 am
Filed under: Forecast, Player Analysis

Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 6/3/13

Our initial release for 2013 has over 800 players projected and ranked. Sporadic updates will occur in June with weekly updates kicking off in July through the start of the season. We’ll also do unscheduled updates as needed, typically for significant injuries that occur between scheduled updates.

Quarterbacks

  • Robert Griffin III (#15) – I know my inbox will be flooded, but his injury risk is too sizeable for my taste. I’ll slide him up as we get closer to Week 1 assuming his rehab continues to go well, but even healthy, I don’t see him cracking my top ten.
  • Tom Brady (#7) – The Pats have lost their lone rock at the receiving position and replaced Welker with an adequate, but injury-prone player. Is this the year the revolving door at the position takes a bite out of Brady’s magic?
  • Carson Palmer (#20) – I like his upside in Bruce Arians’ offense and should be a great fantasy QB2 with QB1 upside.

Running Backs

  • Arian Foster (#2) – His heavy workload the last three years will shouted at you by many fantasy analysts this summer and an early calf injury only adds fuel to the fire. He’s No. 2 for now, but I wouldn’t hold it against anyone for taking Dougie instead.
  • Le’Veon Bell (#12) – Great opportunity for the rookie. We’ll follow his progress closely during camp.
  • Reggie Bush (#14) – PPR value is back on the rise.

Wide Receivers

  • Victor Cruz (#13) – Contract squabble continues.
  • Pierre Garcon (#15) – Foot still a concern. High risk/reward.
  • Wes Welker (#23) – All three Bronco receivers make the top 25.
  • Hakeem Nicks (#30) – Mysteriously absent from OTAs.

Tight Ends



Top Ten Rookie Running Backs for 2013


By: — April 29, 2013 @ 11:44 am
Filed under: Forecast, NFL Draft, Player Analysis

After a scan of the runners taken during the 2013 draft this past weekend, here are my early top ten rookie running backs for re-draft leagues. Keep in mind; a number of rookies had a fantasy impact last year – Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Trent Richardson, Vick Ballard and David Wilson. Martin, Morris and Richardson finished among the top ten fantasy running backs in 2012.

Le'Veon Bell

The new workhorse in Pittsburgh.

1. Le’Veon Bell, PIT – With Mendenhall moving on to Arizona the Steelers have a void at the RB position. Bell is projected to be an every-down back and rumors of Jonathan Dwyer being shopped in a potential trade have begun to surface.

2. Eddie Lacy, GB – Lacy was a shoe-in to be top on the list until the Packers selected Johnathan Franklin later in the draft. Lacy’s likely use around the goaline gives him the early leg up over the smaller Franklin.

3. Montee Ball, DEN – The Broncos have a crowded backfield at the moment but with one pick slip handed to Willis McGahee, Ball’s fantasy value will shoot up the charts. He has the potential to be the focus of the Broncos running game.

4. Giovani Bernard, CIN – Bernard is a much better receiver than the LawFirm but is a bit on the smallish side (5-foot-9) to be a workhorse. He’s got a chance to fill the role Bernard Scott has yet to fulfill.

5. Johnathan Franklin, GB – Franklin is a perfect compliment to Lacy and could become a fantasy force if Lacy’s injury concerns become a reality in 2013. He’ll likely compete with DuJuan Harris for carries.

6. Zac Stacy, STL – Stacy lands in St. Louis in a prime situation. Gone is Steven Jackson and left behind are second-year players Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead with Stacy the more likely to receive goaline carries.

7. Stepfan Taylor, ARI – Mendenahll will get his chance this year to be the workhorse in Arizona but he is on a one-year contract and prone to injury. Coaches are typically reluctant to put rookie running backs on the field due to their lack of prowess in pass-blocking but Taylor does have above-average ability in that department. At the very least, he should fill a complementary role to Mendy in 2013.

8. Knile Davis, KC – Davis is known as injury-prone and a fumbler but does have immense talent. He’ll have to shake the former if he wants a steady role as Jamaal Charles’ backup and with Shaun Draughn currently holding down the job, the opportunity is there.

9. Andre Ellington, ARI – Bruce Arians is definitely trying to revamp his running back group. Ellington will likely spend most of time on special teams this season but he’s someone to keep an eye on if the Mendenhall experiment fails.

10. Joseph Randle, DAL – DeMarco Murray is the unquestioned started in Big-D but behind him is a vacancy. Jerry Jones already projects him to be the backup behind Murray making him very fantasy relevant given Murray’s injury history.


Fantasy Impact – Greg Jennings Signs with Division Rival


By: — March 16, 2013 @ 9:35 am
Filed under: Free Agents, Player Analysis
Greg Jennings

Jennings gives Ponder a legitimate weapon on the outside.

Following the path of other ex-Packers (QB Brett Favre, K Ryan Longwell, S Darren Sharper), wide receiver Greg Jennings tested the free agent market and found a home in Minnesota.

Jennings signed a five-year, $47.5 million deal with the Vikings worth roughly $27 million over the first three years. His contract comes in below deals recently signed by Mike Wallace (5 years $60 million) and Dwayne Bowe (5 years, $56 million) but substantially above Wes Welker’s agreement in Denver (2 years, $12 million).

Minnesota had little choice but to sign Jennings after trading away their main receiving threat, Percy Harvin, to the Seahawks in exchange for draft picks. Jerome Simpson was resigned earlier this week but given the lack of talent in the receiving corps it won’t come as a surprise if the Vikings use one of their two first-round draft picks (#23 & #25) on a receiver.

Fantasy Impact

The 29 year-old Jennings appeared in eight games last year due to injury and turned in his worst season as a pro (36 rec, 366 yds, 4 TDs). He fills a gaping hole in the Vikings offense and has the ability to play on the outside or in the slot. Regardless of any moves at the receiver position yet to come, he will be the focus of the passing attack.

An attack led by Christian Ponder, not Aaron Rodgers.

Ponder and the Vikings passing offense won’t be confused the Packers aerial assault anytime soon. Minnesota ranked 31st in passing yards last season and with Ponder averaging 6.1 yards per attempt (31st also), Jennings could catch 90 balls and not break 1000 yards. And do forget, the offense runs through Adrian Peterson and their run-first philosophy won’t change anytime soon.

It’s not all doom and gloom however, as Jennings would be one of many mouths to feed in Green Bay as Randall Cobb, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and TE Jermichael Finley are very deserving of targets… and will get them. In Minnesota, Jennings will be the big fish in the purple pond but will have a hard time cracking WR1 territory without significant improvement from QB Christian Ponder and the Vikings demonstrating a willingness to open up the offense.

In the end, this likely is a neutral move for Jennings’ fantasy value, representing as a low-end WR2 with very little upside due to below average quarterback play.


Free Agent Frenzy – Day 2


By: — March 14, 2013 @ 1:04 am
Filed under: Free Agents, Player Analysis

Fantasy highlights from Day 2 of free agency. It didn’t disappoint.

The biggest splash occurred when Wes Welker moved on from Tom Brady and into the arms of Peyton Manning. The Patriots reportedly offered the prolific slot receiver $10 million plus incentives for two years. The Broncos offered $12 million for the same time frame. This move creates a ripple effect in Denver. Eric Decker‘s fantasy value takes a hit along with the Broncos’ tight ends. Downgrade the fantasy value of Welker also. It’s hard to catch 100 passes with Demaryius Thomas on the outside… but our own Dave Stinger doesn’t agree.

Danny Amendola

Injury history is a huge red flag with Amendola.

After losing Welker, the Patriots turned right around and picked up Danny Amendola to fill the void. Long thought of as a poor man’s Wes Welker, Amendola’s fantasy value took a jump today but his huge injury risk limits his leap. He’s missed 20 games in the last two years.

If the Patriots hold firm with the receivers they have now, the biggest beneficiary may be TE Aaron Hernandez who is capable of playing in the slot and could rack up huge numbers if Amendola continues to demonstrate his brittle nature.

After a quiet Day 1, the running back position made some noise as Reggie Bush left South Beach for Detroit, signing a four-year deal. This gives Bush added upside but with Mikel Leshoure still in the mix and likely to get goaline carries, Bush’s value will be greatest in PPR leagues with 60 catches a real possibility.

Rashard Mendenhall reunites with Bruce Arians as the former Steelers running back signed a one-year deal with Arizona. Mendenhall tried to come back last season after tearing his ACL in early January of 2012. He never rushed for more than 50 yards in any game. If Mendenhall can win the starting job over Ryan Williams he may slide into low-end RB2 territory but with injury concerns and no quarterback play, that’s wishful thinking.

Tennessee added depth at running back, picking up Shonn Greene from the Jets. Both Greene and Chris Johnson take hits to their fantasy value with this move. Greene could become a vulture at the goaline and gives the Titans the option to form a RBBC if desired. This is still CJ2K’s starting job but a 65-35 split wouldn’t surprise me.


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