1.01 Colts – QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
Most, if not all, NFL personnel people believe Luck is one of the best and most NFL-ready QB prospects to come out in years, so his skill is not in question. However, new HC Chuck Pagano suggests Indy will be a physical running team in the coming years, which flies a bit in the face of what new OC Bruce Arians built his reputation on in Pittsburgh. And there is also the issue of his likely supporting cast, which will feature a declining Reggie Wayne, injury-prone Donnie Avery and Austin Collie with no viable threat at TE. Now, Collie has proven he can be a lead receiver at times, but the Colts’ offense is in the midst of a massive rebuilding job nonetheless. Luck’s upside is so high that he is probably worth over-drafting in dynasty leagues in order to get elite fantasy production from him in 2-3 years, but understand that his immediate success is far from guaranteed as the Colts restock the shelves.
In redraft leagues, he starts the summer as a mid-level QB2 in 12-team leagues thanks mostly to his skill and underrated athletic ability. He has enough of a supporting cast that fantasy owners should expect a top 20 finish at his position in 2012.