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Week 9 Buy Low, Sell High

By: — November 5, 2009 @ 10:30 am
Filed under: Player Analysis

Buy Low

  • Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – It’s not exactly a Buy Low but Brown is coming off his worst game of the season with 27 yards on 11 carries against the Jets. Plus, he struggled the previous week against the Saints and his 2-week totals are 27 carries for 75 yards and a TD. It’s possible that you can sell his owner that he’s struggling because teams are clamping down on the Dolphins running game due to their struggles to pass the ball with 2nd-year quarterback Chad Henne and a cast of below average wide receivers. If it works, then Brown is definitely worth targeting because, even with is recent struggles, he’s on pace for over 1,300 total yards and 16 touchdowns.
  • Steve Slaton, Texans – Slaton has apparently fumbled away the starting gig in Houston with Ryan Moats exploding on the scene in Buffalo this past week to the tune of 151 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak has said that his backfield will be a 3-headed monster consisting of Moats, Slaton and Chris Brown. Here’s the history – Moats has never achieved extended success in the NFL since being drafted in 2005 and Brown has proven this year that he’s not even a serviceable backup. If you can trade some depth for Slaton and afford to sit him until he returns to the starting line-up, you should do it.
  • Kevin Walter, Texans – The Texans lost tight end Owen Daniels to injury and running back Steve Slaton was benched. The team’s backup tight ends are Joel Dreesen and a pair of rookies (James Casey and Anthony Hill), one of whom just underwent surgery. The Texans options are force-feeding Dreesen or increasing the role of one of their receivers and Walter’s size makes him the best option to replace what Daniels was bringing to the table.
  • Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten was ranked as a top 3 fantasy tight end heading into the season with many pundits ranking him at number 1. However, he’s on pace to finish the season with 795 receiving yards and just 2 touchdowns which nets you 91 fantasy points on the season in standard leagues or 5.7 points per game. Frankly speaking, I’m not sold that his numbers are going to go up much but if you can get him cheap, he’s worth taking a flyer on.

Sell High

  • Matt Forte, Bears – Forte enjoyed a solid game this week against the pathetic Browns but he’s not likely to carry your squad to victory many times over the balance of the season. Other than the Rams and Packers, there are no cream puffs on the schedule. Other opponents include the Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles, Vikings (twice) and Baltimore. Plus the Lions in week 17 but that’s not going to help you much. If a team in your league thinks he’s turned the corner, then move him now.
  • LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers – The Forte situation holds true for LT as well. Nice fantasy performance this week against the Chiefs but 56 yards on 18 carries is really more bad news than good so don’t be fooled by the 2 rushing TD. The only patsies on the run schedule coming up are the Browns and the Chiefs so it might be time to move LT if the package gets you a RB1 in return.
  • Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Sell high on a guy who just got the starting gig and is averaging a nifty 5.0 yards a carry? Yeah, that’s right. The yards per carry is misleading because it has come mostly on passing downs and often when defenses are playing soft because the Chiefs are playing from behind. Plus, the Chiefs have run the ball 203 times this year without scoring a rushing touchdown and the fact there’s no guarantee Charles will retain the job when Larry Johnson returns from injury. It says here that if somebody in your league thinks Charles will succeed where LJ failed as a RB2, then you should be selling even if the return is only a quality WR3.
  • Matt Schaub, Texans – Schaub was a top 3 quarterback heading into Week 8 against the Bills but dropped a bit due to his inability to get a passing touchdown against a solid Bills secondary. Going forward, it’s a little disconcerting that he’s lost Daniels, the top ranked fantasy tight end this season, and a solid receiving running back in Slaton due to him being benched. In addition, stud wideout Andre Johnson has just 8 catches for 125 yards and no touchdowns over the last 2 games, perhaps signalling that he is suffering lingering effects from a chest injury. Hard to sell a top rated quarterback but if the return is there, it’s worth the risk.

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