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Week 8 Buy Low, Sell High

By: — October 29, 2009 @ 3:31 pm
Filed under: Player Analysis

Hey, we’ve got a new category this week and it’s Sell Now. And it’s reserved for a special guy – Larry Johnson of the Chiefs – because special guys like him deserve special categories. Maybe the category should be called Some People Never Learn. Or perhaps Is This Guy Living In The 20th Century? I could go on…

Great opportunities this week and with league trade deadlines now getting closer, it’s time to jump in. As they say in real estate, it’s better to set the market than to chase it, especially in dynasty leagues. Giddy up.

Buy Low

  • Steven Jackson, Rams – Jackson has the Lions this week who may be without Calvin Johnson. If the Rams are going to win a game this year, this may be it. Jackson knows it and he’s going to run determined. Expect him to run all over a soft Lions defense. Disclaimer: Rams are my team so there may be some bias here. Anyway, if you like Jackson and the fact he is 4th in the league in total yards per game and can’t possibly keep avoiding the end zone, buy now before he obliterates the Lions.
  • Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, Cardinals – Boldin has a high ankle sprain so he is defiinitely a buy low candidate given the concerns about his availability. However, all Cardinals weapons in the passing game are solid options the rest of the way due to their ridiculously easy schedule. After this week’s game against the league’s top ranked pass defense (Carolina), the Cardinals don’t face a pass defense ranked in the top half of the league. Their schedule during the fantasy playoffs include the 49ers, Lions and Rams. This one’s a no-brainer.
  • Carson Palmer, Bengals – Palmer looked rusty for much of this season until the Bengals blowout win this week over the Bears when he went 20 of 24 for 233 yards and 5 TD. Not a bad days work. If you subscribe to the theory that Palmer’s poor performance over much of his team’s first 6 games was due to rust from missing most of last season and that he’s now back to his Pro Bowl form, then it’s time to buy in. As an added incentive, after this week’s bye the Bengals face 4 pass defenses ranked 21st or lower and don’t have a single game against a top 10 pass defense.
  • Greg Jennings, Packers – Another game, another ho-hum TD-less performance from Jennings, this time against the sad-sack Browns. At this point, he’s on pace to finish the season with 950 receiving yards and just 2 TD. The Packers don’t face a top 10 pass defense the rest of the way so look for the Jennings magic to return soon. Like SJax, if his owner is fixated on the lack of touchdowns, then it’s time to jump into the fray with a below market offer.

Sell High

  • Thomas Jones, Jets – Jones has put up remarkable fantasy points this season courtesy of 7 touchdowns in 7 games. With Leon Washington out for the season and rookie Shonn Greene not able to replace Washington’s pass receiving ability, Jones figures to get increased touches the rest of the way. Heck, even his schedule is favorable so why sell high? Basically, if somebody is willing to sell the farm for Jones under the assumption that things will only get better for him given his situation, then you should be selling. I just don’t see him finishing the season with 1,400-plus yards and averaging a touchdown a game.
  • Tony Romo, Cowboys – After 7 games, Romo has had 3 solid fantasy outings and 3 poor ones. The solid outings were against soft pass defenses – Bucs, Chiefs and Falcons. The duds were against solid pass defenses – Giants, Panthers and Broncos. Between now and the end of the fantasy playoffs, Romo faces 5 top ten pass defenses and of the other 5 games, the lowest ranked pass defense is the 16th ranked Seahawks. Basically, if the Romo formula of bad games against good pass defenses continues, Romo’s going to be putting up some duds the rest of the way. So, are you on the side of history or not?
  • Kyle Orton, Broncos – Orton has been surprisingly effective as a fantasy starter this season but the road ahead isn’t a pretty one. The Broncos face 4 top 10 defenses over the next 9 weeks and the only patsy on the schedule is the Chiefs in week 13 unless you consider the Ravens game this week an easy one. If Orton is your starter, it’s time to package him and a backup WR or RB for a more servicable starter at quarterback.

Sell Now

  • Larry Johnson, Chiefs – He’s been suspended for 2 weeks and it’s highly doubtful that he will play another game for the Chiefs. Basically, this is a case of taking 10 cents on the dollar and being happy about it. If a team desperate for running back help is offering up a WR4 or even less, then take it and be glad you did.

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