8/25/04
With several major injuries, key player movement and an extremely
deep and talented crop of rookies entering the league, the training
camp battles at wide receiver are widespread and complicated. There's
over 200 wide receivers making news in camps with just two pre-season
games left before the opener.
About two-thirds of the teams have clear #1 receivers and obvious
players in the 2 and 3 spots. The focus of this article is the camp
battles and developments surrounding the remaining one-third. A
few teams have messes that probably won't be sorted out any time
soon.
For value perspectives the players in question are being listed
with their current ADPs in order to give a better idea of what you
can expect on draft day. Only the top 75 drafted wide receivers
are listed by ADPs. We're separating this breakdown into three sections.
The first section will discuss teams where all receiving positions
are in question. The second section will clarify teams with more
specific battles at #2 and 3. The third section is for miscellaneous
and noteworthy information regarding certain situations.
New England Patriots
Deion Branch (ADP 9.08) versus David
Givens (ADP 12.03) versus Troy Brown (ADP 15.03)
It's hard to know where to start with this crew of Super Bowl
champions, so let's talk about the players not listed above. David
Patten and Bethel Johnson return after making quiet but explosive
contributions a year ago. JJ Stokes has been signed and was having
a solid camp until recently. Relative unknowns Michael Jennings
and Chas Gessner are turning heads and probably being kept on
the practice squad.
Thirty three year old Troy Brown caught 281 passes in the three
seasons leading up to last year's injury problems. He's currently
listed third on the Patriots' depth chart and being given some
experience as an emergency defensive back. The battle here is
between third year standouts and best friends, Givens and Branch.
Branch led the team in receptions and yards last year, while Givens
led in touchdowns. Branch had an memorable performance in the
Super Bowl after Givens came on strong in the playoffs and at
the end of the regular season. The safest way for fantasy owners
to separate them is by ADPs, in which case Givens seems to carry
the higher value being available two and a half rounds later.
It's no lock, but I do expect Givens to be the better fantasy
producer by season's end. By Branch's own admission Givens is
the more serious worker. He's a bigger stronger receiver with
slightly better playmaking and tackle breaking ability. David
Givens is a solid fantasy value this season, but you can expect
them both to have big games at different times.
San Diego Chargers
Kevin Dyson (ADP 14.12) versus Eric
Parker/Reche Caldwell/Tim Dwight/Kassim Osgood
The Chargers will have a top 40 receiver this year, and I believe
his name can be found below. Got your attention? Drew Brees started
out camp as shaky as ever, and then something suddenly clicked,
and he has been in the zone ever since. With Tomlinson on the
roster and a sharp quarterback, things are going to open up far
more than expected for Bolts' receivers. They also benefit from
a last place schedule in a division known for wide open scoring.
Despite the prevailing opinion, there is fantasy value here beyond
Tomlinson and Gates.
In early August Marty Schottenheimer didn't have any idea who
his best receiver was, saying, "I wouldn't know who to tell
you who the No. 1 guy is right now. But that's not to suggest
there aren't quality players there.''
Kevin Dyson was brought in to replace David Boston as the team's
most talented receiver. He is the only Charger appearing in fantasy
drafts, and that looks like a mistake. He hasn't been able to
separate himself from Parker, Caldwell, Dwight and Osgood. Parker
and Dwight have been listed as the starters since camp began,
but Reche Caldwell, with a new attitude and a stronger body, is
running with the first team ahead of the oft injured Dwight. Caldwell
isn't the story though. With a body like Marvin Harrison, 6-0
and 180, Eric Parker is clearly the star of camp and being targeted
by Brees far more than any other receiver. He's also always open,
astonishingly quick, and catching everything in sight. Before
going down to injury last season he posted three tds in the first
five games. People tossing a late round flyer at Dyson in belief
that someone has to catch the ball in SD are making a mistake.
In a deep draft you may want to toss that flyer at Parker. In
a shallow draft, you can take my opinion with a grain of salt
and wait for him to produce or not in free agency. Just don't
wait too long. You heard it hear first, and will thank FFToday
later.
Cleveland Browns
Andre Davis (ADP 11.04) versus Quincy
Morgan (ADP 12.07) versus Dennis Northcutt (ADP 16.12)
New quarterback Jeff Garcia basically called team management
stupid for considering trading Quincy Morgan, who had a tough
season last year. He's playing for a contract and calling for
a 1300 yard season. With Morgan having a down year, Andre Davis
emerged as a big play threat and red zone target. Fantasy owners
have consistently picked him atop the heap in Cleveland. Jeff
Garcia is not a great deep ball quarterback, and a possession
receiver will soon become his favorite target. In Cleveland that
man is shifty slot receiver Dennis Northcutt. He signed a new
contract and is currently the highest paid Brown receiver. He
led the team in receptions and yards last season, and is often
used to run reverses and quick wide receiver screens. The difficulty
in separating these three, and Garcia's lack of deep ball skills,
combined with Northcutt's round 16/17 value make him the fantasy
option in Cleveland this season. I would add that an 11th or 12th
rounder on either of the other two is in no way a bad choice,
just that Northcutt later is better.
Green Bay Packers
Javon Walker (ADP 5.06) versus Donald
Driver (ADP 9.06) versus Robert Ferguson (ADP 14.03)
Green Bay's situation is much like Cleveland's in that there
are three quality receivers being drafted but no one can be sure
how they will end up. The Packers are naming Walker and Ferguson
as starters amidst reports that the explosive Donald Driver is
in top form again. Furguson nursed a sore hamstring for a week,
came back to practice and looked like an all-pro. Walker posted
9 tds last season and is the clear favorite among fantasy owners.
"Nobody's No. 1, nobody's No. 2 and nobody's No. 3. They
know any of us can beat them," Driver told the Green Bay
Press Gazette. Brett Favre concurs. "I couldn't tell you
who will be our featured receiver this year. I think that's what's
good about our offense. That keeps guys on their toes."
It's hard to justify a 5th round pick on Walker when the competition
is so fierce. Had Driver not planted his skull in the ground last
season, it's doubtful Walker would have produced as he did. From
Sterling Sharpe to Robert Brooks and Antonio Freeman, Favre has
a history of isolating a favorite receiver. Walker and Driver
are the main candidates, but the elder statesmen quarterback is
relishing the opportunity to spread the ball around to these three
talented receivers. If you believe as many do that Walker is going
to distance himself from the others, then don't let him slip past
his ADP, because he will not last any longer. If you believe,
as I do, that the three will all be in the mix, keep an eye on
Driver during the draft and take him if he slips, or go with Ferguson
late and hope for the best. Good luck with these three whatever
you decide.
Kansas City Chiefs
Eddie Kennison (ADP 11.07) versus Johnny
Morton versus Mark Boerigter versus Dante Hall
In an offense dominated by Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez, it's
hard to get excited about any of the receivers. Johnny Morton
has a mysterious achilles injury and is not expected to be ready
by the start of the season. Judging from Eddie Kennison's ADP
some seem to think he will benefit from Morton missing action.
Kennison posted 850 yards and 5 tds last season, and will probably
match that again this season. If you're very sure with your starting
receivers then passing on Kennison for bigger upside is advisable.
If you're not sure of your receivers, and the above numbers are
comforting insurance, then picking him up is an understandable
move. Boerigter is the likely beneficiary of Morton's absence
and has had a very good off season. In 2002 Boerigter converted
a measely 20 receptions into an amazing 8 tds. We're still shaking
our heads over that, and last year as a hot fantasy draft commodity,
he caught all of 11 passes without a score while playing in 12
games. More head shaking. He's a sleeper and obviously very hard
to project.
Arizona Cardinals
Anquan Boldin (ADP* 7.05) versus Larry
Fitzgerald (ADP 7.05) versus Bryant Johnson
Anquan Boldin fell on the NFL with a landslide of production
like no rookie since Randy Moss. He's probably out until the after
Arizona's week 6 bye. His 7th round ADP reflects an average of
where he was taken before and after the injury and he shouldn't
be considered until after the 10th round (if at all) with the
knowledge that he will miss a minimum of five weeks recovering
from knee surgery. Bryant Johnson put together a decent rookie
season in Boldin's shadow and is also out with an injury but expected
to return for the season opener. His readiness and lack of preparation
is an issue. Highly touted rookie, Larry Fitzgerald, rounds out
the injury plague for this snake-bitten team, but coach Dennis
Green remains optimistic, "We are very enthusiastic with
Bryant Johnson and how his foot is coming an how Larry's is also.
I think both will be ready for the first game of the season, and
maybe they get a little action beforehand, maybe they don't."
The Cardinals should pile up stacks of meaningless stats against
prevent defenses late in games, and that's often been a recipe
for solid fantasy numbers. Before Boldin's injury, Fitzgerald's
ADP was in the 9th round. Taking any Cardinal in the mid 7th is
reaching, but Fitzgerald has all the makings of a future star,
and someone has to catch the ball on this team. As bad as Arizona's
defense has looked in preseason, the worse news is that it is
dominating the Arizona offense in scrimmages. It's hard to recommend
any receivers in this situation, but if better news breaks regarding
the injuries Fitzgerald or Johnson may generate plenty of stats
on this struggling team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Joey Galloway (ADP 10.05) Keenan McCardell
(ADP 11.07) Versus Michael Clayton (ADP 15.05) versus Tim Brown/Charles
Lee
Keyshawn Johnson was banished to fantasy hell in Dallas. Keenan
McCardell wants to be paid like a #1 receiver and won't play until
he is. Joey Galloway has been rescued from fantasy hell, and Tim
Brown has signed with the odd stipulation (or was it a gentleman's
agreement?) that he would be a featured member of the offense.
That's just great. The most impressive receiver has been rookie
Michael Clayton. Last year's surprise, Charles Lee, has been the
source of under the radar silence. If McCardell gets his big bonus
before your draft, expect him to once again break the top 25 receivers
and be a solid fantasy value. If he doesn't, then the rest of
this group falls under a sweeping caveat. Galloway hasn't produced
much since his early days in Seattle, and Tim Brown looks ready
for retirement. Expect Joey to be used, as usual, to stretch the
field and open things up for other receivers, and believe the
rumors about Brown's involvement:
Tim Brown says, "They wanted me to come in and be Tim Brown
- not a role player. That means I'm going to be on the field the
majority of the time." Backup Michael Clayton impressed Jon
Gruden during training camp, but likely will see less time now
with Brown around. "I'm not going to complain about Tim Brown
playing more, taking away my playing time because it's a situation
I can learn from."
It seems crazy but these stats bare consideration: In his four
years with Gruden in Oakland, the nine-time Pro Bowler put up
an average of 84 catches, 1,162 yards and nine touchdowns per
season. Galloway has the highest ADP, and we suggest passing on
that 10th rounder. Clayton and Brown will be the west coast playmakers.
The 15th rounder on Clayton may turn into the steal of the draft.
This offense can pass the ball. A fast snatch of Brown in free
agency should he have a big game, will likely pay off several
times this season. There, I said it.
I don't know what I was thinking when I decided to make sense
of the above scenarios, but someone should have slapped me with
a wet trout. Thankfully, the Bucs are the last of the fantasy
befuddlement at wide receiver. I don't expect all the speculation
above to pan out perfectly, but I am sure that some of the insights
can prevent you from making a mistake in your draft. Below are
news, notes, developments and more speculation from teams with
easier to read situations. In many cases the number 1 receiver
is well established and the battles for 2 and 3 are better defined.
In others it's still not quite that clear, and we'll start with
a couple of those.
Baltimore Ravens
Kevin Johnson (11.06) versus Travis
Taylor (ADP 14.11)
Marcus Robinson turned a low 31 receptions into 6 touchdowns
a year ago and then departed for Minnesota. Terrell Owens refused
to join the Ravens, and Kevin Johnson couldn't be happier about
that. Brian Billick believes having Travis Taylor and quarterback
Kyle Boller together for two straight seasons will allow Taylor
to break out of his career long slump. Let's face it. This team
runs the offense through Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap is the primary
receiver. Johnson is not an upgrade from Robinson and will be
lucky to play up to his ADP. You can do worse than Travis Taylor
in the 14th round, and his upside and 14/15th round ADP makes
him the smarter pick of the two. You can probably do better elsewhere.
Chicago Bears
David Terrell (ADP 15.03) versus Justin
Gage (ADP 15.06) versus Bobby Wade
With the trade of #1 wr Marty Booker to Miami, many of you probably
think the Bears' situation belongs above in the more muddled messes.
It doesn't. We should have paid better attention to Arizona coaches
last pre-season. They were trying to tell us how good Boldin was.
This year Chicago coaches are trying to tell us how much David
Terrell has improved. I think we should learn a lesson by listening.
I'm not suggesting Terrell is this year's Boldin. There is no
this year's Boldin. Terrell has improved enough to start living
up to his draft pick and give Chicago coaches enough confidence
to build their defense by trading Booker. His ADP is barely higher
than Justin Gage's. It will go up very soon, and you can no longer
expect to take him as late as the 15th round. If you've been burned
or disappointed by him in the past, and these comments are causing
you to wrinkle your nose, then don't just don't draft him. But
do understand that he has clearly emerged in this training camp
battle and is the Bears' #1 wide receiver. Bobby Wade has been
announced as the #2 and Gage is #3. That's not a true promotion
of Wade above Gage. Wade has been competing at the flanker spot
vacated by Booker. Gage has been competing with Terrell for the
other position, and the competition hasn't been close. Leave Gage
for somebody else, watch Wade in free agency, and if you want
Terrell, you'll have to take him between the 11th and 12th rounds
now.
The offense is designed after the prolific offense in Kansas
City. The Chiefs rely on a stellar multi-purpose running back
and a supreme tight end, but it doesn't have to be a tight end
in this offense. It could be a wide receiver. You decide. A lack
of talent has never been Terrell's problem. Focus, work ethic,
attitude, maturity, these are the things he had to overcome, and
it sounds like he has.
Tennessee Titans #2
Drew Bennett (ADP 11.01) versus Tyrone
Calico (ADP 12.03)
Derrick Mason is the clear number one in Tennessee and an excellent
fantasy starter for any team. Justin McCareins, last year's #2,
has left for the Big Apple, and Bennett and Calico are left to
fill the void. They were both important pieces to the Titan offense
a year ago and will be again. Bennett is the more experienced
and established receiver. Calico is a tremendous physical speciman
with huge upside. Their current ADPs have Bennett leading the
way among fantasy owners, but Calico's stock is slowly on the
rise. After three days of practice with the Falcons, Titans safety
Lance Schulters said, ''Tyrone is too big and too strong and can
run. Tyrone would take all that dude's confidence if he stayed
man-to-man on him. He'd bury him. It's not a good matchup.'' He
was talking about the matchup with Falcons rookie corner DeAngelo
Hall, but Calico is going dominate these kinds of matchups all
season long. Bennett is a reliable tall target for McNair with
modest NFL skills. Calico has #1 skills, and he's the pick for
those of you seeking big upside in the second half of your draft.
Detroit Lions #2
Roy Williams (ADP 9.08) versus Tai
Streets versus Az-Zahir Hakim
The Lions have stockpiled talent at wide receiver. Second year
standout Charles Rogers has established himself as the teams #1
receiving option, and QB Joey Harrington will look to him often.
Rookie Roy Williams has been running with the first team offense,
and Tai Streets was brought in for his knowledge of Marriucci's
system should the rookie not make the grade. Williams has been
comfortable, played better than expected and could live up to
his 9th round ADP. Az-Zahir Hakim is the veteran sleeper in the
midst. He's locked down his spot in the slot role and three receiver
sets and is healthy and at full speed for the first time in two
years. If the youngsters are struggling expect Hakim to become
Harrington's check off receiver. Hakim has the ability to turn
any catch into a touchdown, and he should be watched carefully
in free agency. It isn't often that receivers as young as the
Lions stand out together, and coach Mariucci is very pleased with
the way Hakim has fit the offense.
Washington Redskins #2
Rod Gardner (ADP 10.09) versus James
Thrash versus Darnerian McCants
Odd as it seems Rod Gardner is not impressing new head coach,
Joe Gibbs and James Thrash is. Gardner certainly should be downgraded
from his 10th round ADP, or better yet, just let someone else
draft him.
Jacksonville Jaguars #2
Reggie Williams (ADP 13.11) versus
Troy Edwards (none)
With the 9th selection of the 2004 draft the Jaguars took 6-4
220 pound receiver Reggie Williams. In the 4th round with the
120th selection they took another 6-4 220 pound receiver, Ernest
Wilford. 5-10 190 pound Troy Edwards has been holding them both
off and keeping his starting job, but the intriguing development
is that Wilford has been outplaying Williams who's struggling
with dropped passes. Williams may or may not catch on later in
the season, but for now the ADP seems unreasonable considering
the available talent around the league and the presence of Edwards
and Wilford.
Atlanta Falcons #2
Dez White versus Michael Jenkins versus
Brian Finneran
Possession receiver Brian Finneran has been moved to #2 flanker
behind Peerless Price and is still considered a primary option
in 3rd down three receiver packages. Dez White had an early lead
in the competition to start alongside Price while Jenkins finished
school, but the young rookie is making a strong push for the job.
As of this writing the position is undecided, the camp battle
continues.
San Francisco 49ers #2
Cedric Wilson versus Rahaun Woods versus
Curtis Conway
The 49ers believe they have a rising star in Brandon Lloyd, and
he is firmly established as the teams #1 wide receiver. Wilson
and Conway are battling for the #2 spot, and Cedric Wilson appears
to have the upper hand. Two promising rookies are on the roster
but neither appears to be earning playing time early in the season.
Woods has been slowed by hamstring problems and Derrick Hamilton
is getting better but learning a complicated system. Lloyd is
the only safe choice here for now, and he could be a very good
one if the stories of his great playmaking materialize on the
field.
Buffalo Bills #2
Bobby Shaw versus Josh Reed (ADP 17.05)
versus Lee Evans (ADP 14.08)
Josh Reed wants to put a disappointing 2003 behind him. He's
had an impressive summer and has never lost his spot on the depth
chart. The competition is active and undecided as Bobby Shaw and
Lee Evans are getting time with the starting unit. Evans will
need a year in the system to realistically compete for a starting
job, but all three should see action during the season. If Reed
can distance himself from the others, then he will outplay his
low ADP this season. If he doesn't then there isn't any real fantasy
value here unless I'm wrong about Evans and he emerges like Price
did a few years ago as a rookie.
Cincinnati Bengals #2
Peter Warrick (ADP 10.05) versus Kelley
Washington (ADP 16.01)
Peter Warrick has been unusually slow to recover from knee surgery
and some believe Kelley Washington is in position to steal the
#2 position and start alongside Chad Johnson. The Bengals insist
they're just being cautious with Warrick and his job is secure.
They loved the way he worked the middle and short routes last
season allowing Johnson to run deep. Kelley Washington is a talented
receiver who will become a bigger part of the offense. If Warrick
continues with the lingering knee problems, Washington becomes
a value in the 16th. Otherwise these two are being picked appropriately.
Oakland Raiders #3
Doug Gabriel versus Ronald Curry
Jerry Porter and Jerry Rice are the starters and that's without
debate. Norv Turner won't discuss a depth chart at wide receiver
beyond them. "I'm not sure you will be able to tell who the
third or the fifth guy is," Turner said. Ronald Curry is
backing up the slot position and Doug Gabriel is on the outside.
Carlos Francis and Johnny Morant are competing to be that fifth
guy.
In Dallas Keyshawn Johnson is the number 1 with a fair enough
ADP of 8.02. Terry Glenn returns to the same role he played a
year ago and is currently being drafted a little low in the 16th
round. Antonio Bryant has looked more like the impressive rookie
he was a couple years ago and is probably being disregarded too
much with an ADP of 19.05.
In Carolina expect more of the same from Steve Smith and Muhsin
Muhammad and add in an exciting rookie named Keary Colbert. Smith
has been a steady 4th rounder and Moosh has been lingering into
the 12 and 13th. Colbert should be appearing in current ADPs very
soon.
In Miami the loss of David Boston was filled by Marty Booker.
That's probably an upgrade, but changing teams in mid camp will
slow Booker down. His ADP before the trade was 7.01, and caution
would drop him a couple rounds now. Chambers stays the same and
is typically drafted in the mid 5th round.
In Denver Ashley Lelie is in a real battle with Darius Watts
for the number two spot, but whoever comes through will be sharing
time with the other. Lelie should be downgraded and Watts should
start appearing in late rounds.
The big news in Minnesota was this quote from Mike Tice. "I
guess we need to let him rest until he gets it back to 100 percent,"
Tice said. "Marcus is now our No. 3 receiver when he gets
healthy. Nate is our No. 2 guy, and he'll stay that way even when
Marcus gets back." Those of you high on Marcus Robinson need
to rethink your position. Nate Burleson is poised for a nice season,
and is the better late round draft pick. And Randy Moss should
be pretty good.
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