8/24/04
Miami quarterbacks, Denver running backs, Cleveland receivers, Indianapolis
tight ends; being on the winning side of training camp battles can
make the difference in your fantasy draft. The wrong choice and
you'll be the first person scouring free agency to fill voids. The
right choice and you'll find great value and production from what
was a confusing situation.
This is the first of a four part series of insights on training
camp battles. Parts two, three and four will cover wide receivers,
running backs and quarterbacks. To better assess fantasy values,
we're listing the players current ADPs (average draft positions
based on 12 team redrafts) to give you an idea of where they can
be expected to go in your draft. The players emerging from the
camp battles will likely be drafted a little higher than their
current ADPs, and the ones falling short will be available later
in most cases. We're limiting ADPs to the top 30 most frequently
drafted tight ends.
Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Clark (ADP 11.05) versus Marcus
Pollard (ADP 14.03)
With the highest expectations and ADPs of tight ends in camp
battles, the outcome in Indianapolis is most important for fantasy
owners in mandatory tight end leagues. Dallas Clark was enjoying
a productive rookie campaign last season when he suffered a fractured
right fibula in week 13. At that point in the season, the rookie
had matched Marcus Pollard, the nine year veteran, with exactly
29 receptions. Clark is fully recovered from the broken leg and
again an integral part of the Colts' two tight end system. Both
tight ends are excellent runners after the catch, and the prevailing
opinion according to ADPs is on the side of youth and Clark. However,
it's the two tight end system that is the little fantasy secret
in Indianapolis. There really is no training camp battle here.
They'll both be involved in the offense on a regular basis, and
they'll both produce very similar numbers again. Marcus Pollard
at age 32 offers the better fantasy value because he is typically
available three rounds after Clark. They're both good, and with
the potent offense in Indianapolis, they're both worthy of fantasy
rosters that require tight ends.
New England Patriots
Daniel Graham (ADP 13.02) versus Christian
Fauria (ADP 16.08)
With seven touchdown receptions in 2002, Christian Fauria gained
a reputation for being Tom Brady's favorite red zone target. The
Patriots rewarded him by picking Daniel Graham in the first round
of the 2003 draft. Graham had an up and down rookie season and
finished with 38 receptions, a little over 400 yards, and 4 touchdowns
while splitting time with Fauria. The Patriots rewarded Graham
by drafting Ben Watson in the first round of the 2004 draft. The
Watson pick seems to have sent a message to Graham who has been
a motivated worker in the offseason. At age 33 with two first
rounders on the roster, it's hard to justify high expectations
for Fauria. Brady threw 13 touchdown passes to 8 different players
in goal to go situations last year. While expecting Graham to
outperform his ADP and provide decent fantasy production, it's
difficult to project more than 5 tds. His yardage figures should
be in the top 10 of all tight ends, and he is emerging for this
season as the winner of the camp battle. We'll talk about Ben
Watson next season.
New York Jets
Mikhael Ricks (ADP 16.09) versus Anthony
Becht (ADP 16.10) versus Chris Baker (ADP none)
The Jets acquired perennial underachiever, Mikhael Ricks, to
compete with their own perennial underachiever, Anthony Becht.
Can their ADPs be any closer? In six seasons Ricks, with his impressive
size and speed, has never been able to better his 450 yard 2 td
rookie season. Signing with the Jets in early July seemed to shine
a ray of light on his disappointing career. As camp was winding
down, head coach Herman Edwards discussed his tight ends by claiming
he had two #1 tight ends.
"We really have two number one tight ends," Edwards
told the team's official website. "We have a two tight end
package now and we are using that a little bit more than we have
done in the past." Unfortunately for Ricks, Edwards was talking
about Becht and 2002 3rd rounder, Chris Baker. Baker has been
impressive in camp, making tough catches and breaking tackles
for extra yards. He should be available in free agency in most
leagues and carefully watched. Ricks should be dropped from your
draft board, and Becht's history of underachieving will likely
continue.
Tennessee Titans
Erron Kinney (ADP 16.05) versus Ben
Troupe (ADP 16.03)
With the retirement of Frank Wycheck, the Titans secured the
future of their tight end position by drafting Ben Troupe in the
second round. The typical fantasy infatuation with highly touted
rookies has had fantasy owners taking Troupe ahead of returning
starter Erron Kinney. That's been a mistake. Troupe has struggled
with the playbook and been slow to adjust to the NFL. His future
may be very bright, but he's currently third on the depth chart
behind Kinney and Shad Meier. At 6-5, 275, with sure hands and
being an excellent blocker, look for Kinney to establish himself
and outplay his ADP in the absence of Wycheck. Kinney is a solid
choice for a late round tight end considering McNair's history
of seeking Wycheck in tough situations.
Seattle Seahawks
Itula Mili (ADP 15.05) versus Jerramy
Stevens (ADP 16.09)
Drafted in the first round of 2002, Jerramy Stevens has done
little more than struggle with injuries and the playbook for the
past two seasons. In every offseason we've heard reports of what
an incredible talent he is. At 6-7 and 260 pounds, with good speed,
and "apparently" incredible hands, the stories of his
practice feats have never materialized on the field of play. Despite
another offseason of hype, fantasy owners have taken note and
preferred consistent veteran Itula Mili to Stevens. Still a high
enough percentage of owners are on the Stevens kool-aid to make
the ADPs close enough to consider this a true training camp battle.
Coach Mike Holmgren has said similar things to Coach Edwards in
New York. He has two good receivers and plans on using both. Number
me amongst the kool-aid drinkers. It's a risk/reward situation
where the potential reward far outweighs the risk of a very late
draft pick on Stevens. Unless you've taken a top tight end far
removed from a camp battle, you can't expect tremendous production
from the tight end position. In the case of Stevens the potential
is there to possibly have a top flight tight end for far more
value than those taken in the first 10 rounds. It's not advice
for the feint of heart, but we're talking bottom tier tight ends.
Stevens could go the way of Mikhael Ricks in a few years, or he
could surprise many and play up to the three year old hype. Good
luck if you draft him.
Denver Broncos
Byron Chamberlain (ADP 15.12) versus
Jed Weaver (ADP 18.07)
Off-field problems and weight issues hampered Byron Chamberlain
during his three season hiatus from Denver. The ten year veteran
returns to the Broncos where he spent six seasons in the shadow
of now retired Shannon Sharpe. Jed Weaver is a hard working blocker
and sure handed receiver who has pushed for playing time in Miami
and San Francisco the past few seasons. Considering Chamberlain's
age and other issues, this started out looking like a serious
camp battle, but Chamberlain has been doing everything right.
He's lost weight. He's been a great locker room presence. He's
very familiar with the system. Above all, he's had a great camp.
With Sharpe gone, the Broncos history of using the tight end,
and questions at #2 receiver, the upside for Chamberlain is pretty
strong. With his age, less than spectacular career so far, and
average talent, the downside is mediocre. If you like Denver tight
ends, the job belongs to Chamberlain, but he's no Shannon Sharpe.
Oakland Raiders
Teyo Johnson (ADP 16.11) versus Doug
Jolley (ADP none) versus Roland Williams (ADP none)
Teyo Johnson is the only Raider tight end being drafted with
any regularity. He was fourth on the depth chart for the pre-season
opener and frustrated by the demotion. Can you say Ricky Dudley?
PAC 10 followers know that Johnson struggled at Stanford despite
his imposing physical stats for a wide receiver. Drafted by the
Raiders as a project at tight end, things don't seem to be going
his way. Doug Jolley was initially believed to be Johnson's competition
in the camp battle, but road grader Roland Williams seems to be
emerging as head coach Norv Turner's man. Johnson responded with
catches of 34 and 17 yards in the game against San Francisco and
the tight ends all seem happy about Turner's emphasis on the position.
Rookie Courtney Anderson was the player who sent Johnson to the
fourth spot on the depth chart, but Turner has responded by ambiguously
saying that Johnson wasn't that low. In Oakland camp battles are
raging at QB, RB, WR, and TE, and this one has to be the most
muddled. If Turner wasn't determined to get big production from
the position, we could just forget about it. Williams will be
primarily a tutor and run blocker. Jolley who reminds me a little
of Jay Novacek is going to split receptions with Johnson, and
Anderson is going to continue learning. The biggest upside still
rests with Teyo Johnson, but he has very little room for error.
Philadephia Eagles
L.J. Smith (ADP 12.08) versus Chad
Lewis (ADP none)
For those of you remembering Chad Lewis' impressive seasons a
couple years back, forget about it. While Lewis is expected to
split time with L.J Smith, clearly the future and the season at
hand are favoring the second year player. Quarterback Donovan
McNabb explains:
"He was pretty darn good last year," McNabb said of
Smith, whose rookie season, which featured 27 receptions for 321
yards in a part-time role. "I think he's going to be one
of the best tight ends in the league.. . . I put him right up
there with (Jeremy) Shockey, Todd Heap, Tony Gonzalez. Actually,
the guy he reminds me of the most is Shannon Sharpe. He's a big-play
player. I see us using him a lot this year and him making a lot
of big plays. When he's out there it's just like having another
wide receiver on the field."
And according to L.J himself, "All I know is I'm twice the
player, three times the player I was last year."
If the first two tiers of tight ends get gobbled up while you're
drafting other positions, L.J Smith is worth the late 12th rounder,
maybe sooner as the word gets out.
Dallas Cowboys
Dan Campbell (ADP none) versus Jason
Witten (ADP 13.09)
In Dallas Jason Witten gets all the attention from fantasy owners,
while Dan Campbell continues to hold on to the starting job. While
Witten has gained a reputation for his toughness and was singled
out early by quarterback Vinny Testaverde, he still seems to be
a work in progress. Parcells has predicted a significant role
for Witten, but has yet to demote Campbell who is still the more
complete player. Witten says he expects a bigger part this season,
and he is working very hard on his blocking. This situation smells
like tight end by committee, and it's hard to justify Witten's
ADP. It's equally hard to expect much from the Cowboys offense
this season, and letting someone else hop on the Witten bandwagon
seems like the safest play. There are better choices at tight
end.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dave Moore (ADP none) versus Ken Dilger
(ADP none) versus Rickey Dudley (ADP none)
The camp battle at tight end in Tampa has been in high gear for
weeks. Second-year pro Will Heller, 24 year old free agent Doug
Ziegler and Yale rookie Nate Lawrie have all come to play and
made positive impressions. Dilger and Dudley were co-starters
in the pre-season opener and journeyman Dave Moore is struggling
to keep a roster spot. Tight ends coach, Ron Middleton, has expressed
a desire to keep all six of them, and head coach, Jon Gruden,
has implied that someone needs to step up because they're all
even. We could have chosen to ignore this situation in a fantasy
article, but with the loss of Keyshawn Johnson and the absence
of Keenan McCardell combined with the pass friendly offense, there's
a sneaking suspicion that somewhere in the crowd lies a fantasy
sleeper. With all the time that Gruden has put into Ricky Dudley...
maybe, just maybe. Can I say Ricky Dudley? Sure. He'll be available
in free agency and worth a watchful eye.
Other Tight End Battles
In Jacksonville veteran Kyle Brady and young gun George Wrightster
have both battled injuries and each other for playing time. Brady
is still considered the starter while Wrightster is now battling
for #2 on the depth chart with Todd Yoder.
In Cincinnati run blocker Reggie Kelly is recovering from thumb
surgery and his counterpart, and the better receiver, Matt Schobel,
has a nagging hamstring. Tony Stewart stepped up and grabbed a
touchdown pass in the big win over the Patriots, but there's not
much to see here for your fantasy team.
In Houston Mark Bruener has impressed primarily as a run blocker
and the fantasy value is in sure-handed Billy Miller.
In Chicago, undrafted 27 year old, Gabe Reid has been dubbed
the starter until Desmond Clark's hamstring is ready to go.
In Detroit, Casey Fitzsimmons and Stephen Alexander are vying
for time with Alexander currently expected to be the starter.
In Washington the TE/H-Back battle is playing itself to Joe Gibbs'
satisfaction with little fantasy interest.
Around the rest of the league, the tight end position is more
clearly established or of little fantasy significance, and Tony
Gonzalez should be pretty good.
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