8/27/04
This is part three of our four part series on NFL training camp
battles. Five of the NFL's starting quarterback positions are subject
to ongoing camp battles, and here we take a closer look at them
There's some information and developments in other QB situations
around the league that could be pertinent to your fantasy drafts
included below. The quarterbacks in question are listed with their
average draft positions (ADPs based on 12 team redrafts) to better
give you an idea of when the player will be available in your fantasy
draft. The eventual winners of the battles will likely go up in
ADP. The losers will go down and generally fall from the draft picture
on their way to fantasy free agency.
Miami Dolphins
Jay Fiedler (ADP 17.04) versus A.J.
Feeley (ADP 18.01)
Miami Coach Dave Wannstedt announced that Jay Fiedler would get
the start this weekend ahead of A.J. Feeley, yet Feeley was the
player under the spotlight for the third pre-season game.
''I want to see A.J. more, to be honest with you,'' Wannstedt
said. Wannstedt said Fiedler will play ''a couple series in the
first quarter,'' and then Feeley will play the remainder of the
first half and the third quarter. ''That way, Jay gets a little
bit of work and we get a real good look at A.J.,'' Wannstedt said.
A week earlier, when asked about a time table for picking his
starter, he responded, "My timetable is the first snap against
Tennessee, if you want to know the truth." Tennessee is the
regular season opener for Miami.
Fiedler has been a mediocre 4 year starter for the Dolphins.
Feeley's only real NFL experience is a short and successful run
in Philadelphia replacing an injured Donovan McNabb. Third stringer
Sage Rosenfels opened camp by outperforming both Feeley and Fiedler
and was rewarded with a reduction in snaps. This feels like a
situation where both quarterbacks are going to play during the
regular season before this is completely worked out. If there's
a situation to avoid at all costs among NFL qbs, this is it.
The good news is that newly acquired Marty Booker with his natural
flanker skills is a better compliment to #1 wr Chris Chambers
than injured David Boston. When Boston returns next year this
could be quite a trio, and we'll happily advocate drafting Miami's
starting quarterback, if they've decided on one by then.
New York Giants
Kurt Warner (ADP 13.06) versus Eli
Manning (ADP 15.09)
The media hype surrounding this camp battle is blown out of proportion
in typical New York fashion. Trying to sift through the volumes
of information to figure it out is a mistake. It's pretty simple.
Where I'm unwilling to predict Dave Wannstedt's decision above,
here I'm willing to proclaim Kurt Warner the opening day starter.
That isn't good news for Warner, because the young Manning has
been better, more consistent, and even more poised. It doesn't
sound like the two have developed any sense of a cordial mentor/student
relationship, nor does it sound like the Giants will be patient
with Warner. It's almost an NFL tradition to throw the veteran
to the wolves in these situations, then quickly replace him with
the young prospect when things go south. To reverse that order
would be terrible for Manning's confidence. For fantasy purposes
there isn't much to go on here except hype and gut feelings, two
things prudent owners refuse to follow. Warner will get the start
this weekend, but that's no vote of confidence. In Head Coach
Tom Coughlin's words: "It's his turn."
Let someone else in your league deal with this situation and
only make the move in free agency for the starter if things are
going far better than expected. That's up to the offensive line.
Either of these qbs could put together a successful fantasy run
with adequate pass protection. Amani Toomer, Ike Hilliard, Jeremy
Shockey, and Tiki Barber are all more than capable in the passing
game. If the starter is available in your league's free agency,
and the pressure and sacks aren't piling up, then the Giant QB
deserves consideration for a roster spot. Wait and see. Don't
buy into the hype.
Washington Redskins
Mark Brunell (ADP 11.03) versus Patrick
Ramsey (ADP 18.03)
Mark Brunell is landing on fantasy rosters as early as the 10th
round in some cases. Patrick Ramsey is an 18th round afterthought
(or handcuff). This camp battle is much closer than fantasy observers
think. Returning Hall of Fame Head Coach Joe Gibbs hand-picked
Brunell shortly after accepting the job, and that is probably
why many have turned a blind eye to the ongoing qb battle. Patrick
Ramsey never endeared himself to fantasy fans last season, but
pure football fans learned to respect his toughness and remarkable
play under very difficult circumstances. Perhaps even Gibbs has
been surprised by what a good quarterback he already had on his
roster, and I'll humbly defer to him:
"I think both Mark and Patrick know what's at stake,"
Gibbs said. "They're alternating starting and they're focusing
on being proficient. There are a lot of times where they may do
good things for us than what the fans see. So we continue to evaluate
the whole thing."
"Right now we're just alternating starters, so if somebody
jumps to a conclusion, that's their problem," Gibbs said.
"We're just going to continue to work through the process
and when we're ready, we'll announce it. It's premature right
now--I think someone would have a tough time guessing if they
do [jump to a conclusion]."
No sense jumping to conclusions or guessing who is going to emerge
here. Brunell's 11.03 ADP is too high considering the uncertainty.
However, it could pay off for you "IF" he wins the job.
The winner here will deserve a fantasy roster spot by benefiting
from an efficient offensive system and excellent surrounding talent.
The opposite observation was made in regards to the Giants' situation
because they didn't pick up Clinton Portis in the offseason. His
presence will create big plays in the passing game. It's a Gibbs
tradition. Unfortunately, sound advice is another wait and see.
There's a dozen sure fire starters still available in the 11th
round. Unless, you're drafting Brunell as your 3rd qb in the 11th
round, another ill advised move, exercise a little patience or
go in another direction. The situation is too risky to make him
your 2nd qb.
Oakland Raiders
Rich Gannon (ADP 11.10) versus Kerry
Collins (ADP 16.03)
Rich Gannon and Kerry Collins are in agreement that the job belongs
to Gannon. One interview went like this:
Reporter: "Kerry, are you competing for a starting job?"
Collins: "No, I am not."
Reporter: "Why?"
Collins: "That's what they told me was going to happen when
I came here."
Norv Turner has yet to make that an official decision. He has
however all but vowed that Gannon would be the opening day starter.
Collins stronger arm is making the decision difficult. He's being
billed as the future quarterback of the Raiders and this year's
back up. He is a better fit than Gannon to Norv Turner's offense.
Gannon has been selling himself for the job and even to fantasy
owners all summer.
Gannon said he is "as healthy as I've ever been" and
"so much further ahead than I normally am" throwing,
eight months after surgery to repair torn labrum cartilage in
his throwing shoulder. He's called his workouts "phenomenal"
and called himself a "young 38 ready to run a marathon."
He says the criticism and injury have motivated him and that training
camp has been "a joke for him physically." He was insulted
after perusing some fantasy mags and had a message for fantasy
owners like you and me:
"I wasn't even among the top 25," Gannon said.
The top 25 players in the league?
"No, quarterbacks!" he said. "They had guys on
the list ... I couldn't even pronounce their names. I didn't recognize
them. Some of them were rookies! They had rookies ahead of me!
I'm like, 'This is a joke.' I kind of smiled when I looked at
it. Then I said, 'You know what? This is typical of society.'
"You go to four straight Pro Bowls and you're the league
MVP. Then you get hurt, and you're with a team that had issues
anyway, and now you're a guy who can't play. It's ridiculous."
"I really feel like people have counted me out," he
said. "I feel like a dark horse. I'm as good physically as
I've ever been. I look for a big, big year from me. I'm real comfortable
putting that out there. I know what I've put into it, what I worked
for and what I expect from myself." ...
Okay okay already. Everybody go draft Rich Gannon, or he's gonna
be mad. That's some chip Collins is on his shoulder. The funny
thing about that quote, which is one of my all-time favorites,
is his ADP skyrocketed the following week. He's no longer a 15th
rounder but an 11th rounder, and you have to believe the job will
be his if and until he returns to last year's pathetic form. How
will he do? It's hard to say, but this is about his battle with
Kerry Collins, and the message is not to draft Collins, and if
you're so inclined give Rich another shot. He really wants you
to.
San Diego Chargers
Drew Brees (ADP 17.09) versus Philip
Rivers (ADP 18.05)
Through the middle of August, fantasy owners picking up a Charger
quarterback late in drafts were taking rookie Philip Rivers at
a three to one clip ahead of incumbent Drew Brees. At the time,
Rivers ADP was three and half rounds higher than Brees'. The extended
hold out of the talented rookie and surprisingly excellent play
from Brees has pulled Brees ahead of Rivers in their respective
ADPs. It's still very close. As a training camp battle there's
been little to observe beyond Brees' play and Rivers' contract
negotiations. With his name finally inked on a 40 million dollar
plus deal, Rivers ended his fourth day of practice to unexpected
news.
Head Coach Marty Schottenheimer announced, "He's done a
nice job here, so my expectation is that he'll play (in the next
exhibition game)." The coach went on to explain that the
green QB might even cut into Brees time with some of the starters
in the second quarter, but wouldn't fully commit. Rivers seemed
surprised by the news and claimed he was up to speed "as
far as all the run checks and all that stuff," and admitted
he's not as comfortable as he'd like to be. Schottenheimer chuckled
when he cautioned reporters not to read between the lines. That's
good advice. It would be nearly unprecedented for a rookie to
miss over half of camp and step into the starting lineup. The
real message between the lines is to Drew Brees and sounds like
this, "Keep up the good work because if you backslide into
last years' disappointing play, we won't hesitate to develop this
kid."
What should fantasy owners make of Brees' excellent play? He
currently has the 10th highest QB rating (105.4) in the NFL against
vanilla pre-season defenses. He's completed an impressive 24 of
35 passes for 328 yards while struggling in the red zone. On the
practice field, as mentioned in the wide receiver camp battles
portion of this series, he's played even better. In a very deep
draft, or a 2 QBs starting league, Brees is the correct (very
late) pick at this time, and a handcuff to Rivers may prove prudent
providing the necessary roster space. In a more traditional league,
your safest seeking QBs elsewhere while monitoring Brees in case
the pre-season play continues into the regular season.
As far as I can discern the above five teams are the only ones
undergoing serious training camp quarterback battles this pre-season.
However, the media, as is its want this time of year, has endeavored
to create quarterback controversies in several cities where they
don't exist. Let's debunk some of the myths.
San Francisco 49ers
Tim Rattay has a career qb rating of 95.2. Last season, the only
season he's received significant playing time, his rating was
a higher at 96.4. The 49ers are settled on him as their starter,
and the rumors of Ken Dorsey's challenge are ill-founded. Dorsey
is recovering from bulging discs in his back and out of action
for at least another week. Rattay is back from his mysterious
sore forearm and the job is his. Every year a quarterback comes
from nowhere to be a solid fantasy performer and with an ADP of
14.02, and on average the 27th quarterback drafted, Tim Rattay
could be that man. He plays a passer friendly schedule and there's
a chance many of his games will be shootouts. I'm not endorsing
him above his ADP, but if you're one to add a 3rd qb to your roster,
he's a nice pick to cover an unfortunate injury/bye week conundrum.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tommy Maddox had a very disappointing season last year, and the
Steelers drafted quarterback Ben Roethlisberger with the 11th
pick in the first round. Roethlisberger had an impressive performance
in his first pre-season experience and the rumors started. Offensive
coordinator Ken Wisenhunt proclaimed this week, "(Tommy Maddox)
gives me peace of mind, because I know he knows the system, and
he knows how to operate it and he does a good job running it."
Maddox could recover from his disappointing performance last year
and Pittsburgh has the tools to field a dynamic offense. The same
was said a year ago when things fell apart. Nevertheless, if you're
picking a back-up quarterback, and like the talent (Ward and Burress)
in Pittsburgh, then Maddox is the starter there.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A similar story broke as I was putting this article together.
ESPN radio announced that Brad Johnson was guaranteed a bench
spot by mid-season because the Bucs were in love with Chris Simms.
It was hogwash from a reporter desiring attention. Johnson is
secure and throwing the ball beautifully. Simms does have a future
in Tampa, but it's a distant one.
Cincinnati Bengals
Many of us expected a controversy to develop between last year's
#1 draft pick Carson Palmer and veteran Jon Kitna soon after the
Bengals announced that Palmer would be the starter. The second
year QB is doing everything right and even Kitna seems supportive
of the change. The Bengals boast as tough a strength of schedule
as any team in the league and Palmer is about to endure his baptism
of fire. Handcuffing him to Kitna may not be a bad idea, but Palmer
looks better than some expected and will start the season.
|