A few times throughout the year, I have reiterated the importance
of bankroll management. As we wrap up the daily fantasy football
season, it is something that is worth repeating. Now is certainly
not the time to chase season losses or try to parlay winnings into
a bigger payout. With the smaller (minuscule really) slate of games,
if you miss on just one or two guys it is nearly impossible to make
it up with the rest of your lineup as those players will be well
owned by your opponents. Be satisfied with your winnings or learn
from your mistakes and look to improve next season. During the off-season
you can study up on the game, read some industry articles, listen
to podcasts and of course talk with others on the FFToday
Forums. Have fun dabbling in the NFL this week and perhaps some
of the other daily sports, but remember that DFS is not going anywhere
and you will be smarter and stronger next season.
This week it appears there is more value at running back versus
the wide receiver position. At least, the guys that I would feel
more comfortable gambling with at low prices are at the RB position.
Here are the value plays for this week.
Las Vegas scoring lines for Wildcard Weekend:
- Baltimore (20) at New England (27)
- Carolina (14.25) at Seattle (25.25)
- Dallas (23.25) at Green Bay (29.25)
- Indianapolis (23.5) at Denver (30.5)
Bye: N/A
Salaries: (FanDuel/DraftKings)
Quarterbacks Andrew Luck
(9,600/8,700) – Denver is tough against the run so look
for Luck to be slinging the ball much of the day. Back in Week
1, Luck threw for 370 yards and 2 TDs in Denver. He also had 2
interceptions but added 19 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Tony Romo (8,600/7,600) – For me, Romo is strictly a projections-to-price
value play for someone trying to save money at the position. I
would be willing to take more of a chance with him in tournaments
over cash games as his pass attempts are going to be largely game
flow dependent.
Running Backs
Dan Herron will be widely owned at his
cheap price.
Dan
Herron (6,100/5,300) – As I mentioned with Luck above, Denver
has a tough run defense. The stats Herron struggles to get on
the ground he will make up for as a pass catcher out of the backfield
where Denver is vulnerable. Last week he posted 10 catches on
11 targets for 85 yards to add to his rushing stats.
Eddie Lacy
(8,400/7,200) – With Aaron Rodgers battling a calf injury, look
for a heavier dose of Eddie Lacy. Detroit had decent success against
the Cowboys last week and Lacy should find similar opportunities
on the Frozen Tundra this week.
Shane Vereen (5,200/4,800) – If you are comfortable playing
some New England running back roulette, take a stab with Vereen.
Baltimore is tough against the run, but Vereen also receives a
bulk of the RB pass targets. In terms of offensive snap percentage,
Vereen has seen the highest percentage of snaps of the Patriot
running backs over the last three weeks. At this price he could
be worth the gamble.
Wide Recievers
Julian Edelman (7,300/6,400) - Due back from a concussion
that kept him out the last two games of the regular season, Edelman
should be right back into the mix with 10-plus targets. If he
produces like he did prior to being concussed he will out produce
the wideouts that are over $1000 more expensive.
Doug Baldwin (5,900/4,500) – Baldwin is the leading pass
catcher for Seattle. The question is how many targets will he
see in this projected low scoring game? If you have to save money
at the position, Baldwin is worth considering.
Tight Ends
Jason Witten (5,500/4,800) – This week it is Rob
Gronkowski and everyone else at tight end, but at 7,900/7,100
he will be tough to get into lineups. Witten is one of the most
reliable options not named Gronk.
Dwayne Allen (5,000/3,500) – Allen returned last week from
a knee injury that kept him out the last two games of the regular
season. His best fantasy game this year came in Denver in Week
1, though he remained a red zone threat all season. Denver gives
up top 10 production to opposing tight ends.
Defenses
Seattle (5,200/3,700)
Denver (4,900/2,900)
Good luck this week!
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