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Jayson Werra | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Dose: Week 14
Waiting on Injury Reports
12/4/14; Updated: 12/6/14


Some weeks in the daily fantasy space, it seems like prices are a little tighter to rankings and predictions. In my opinion, this is one of those weeks. There is still some value out there but some of the plays are not as obvious as other weeks. As we approach Sunday, a few more value possibilities may present themselves as the injury reports become clearer. This is the case every week, but it seems even more apparent this week as more of the regular starters are not practicing and showing up as questionable on the injury report. Some of the key questions at the running back position are: like Andre Ellington (ARI), Isaiah Crowell (CLE) and Rashad Jennings (NYG). Keep an eye on these situations as there is potential to get starter touches and targets at backup prices. At the time of writing, if I was going to play just one lineup this week, I would be paying up for my quarterback and running back as I see stronger value plays at the wide receiver and tight end positions.

Saturday Update – As I mentioned earlier in the week, the injury reports are providing some more value priced options for this weekend. Of course some teams are staying close to the vest on their game time decision players, so check the Sunday inactives before finalizing your rosters. Below are a few added comments or ideas for this week.

Andre Ellington has been ruled out for this weekend. Stephan Taylor (5,500/3,300) will get the start but will likely split the work with Marion Grice (5,000/4,100). Against Kansas City, neither of these two are great options, especially in a cash game format.

Isaiah Crowell (6,500/5,000) is looking like he will play through the questionable status. With a hip injury, I would not feel comfortable playing Crowell at his price, but I would consider Terrance West (5,300/3,800) if Crowell is inactive.

Rashad Jennings made the value report earlier this week but his limited practices scaring me away in cash games. He traveled with the team to Tennessee and is listed as a game time decision.


Las Vegas scoring lines for Week 14:
  • Dallas (27.25) at Chicago (23.75)
  • Baltimore (21.25) at Miami (23.75)
  • Pittsburgh (22) at Cincinnati (25)
  • Indianapolis (26.75) at Cleveland (23.25)
  • Houston (23.5) at Jacksonville (18.5)
  • NY Giants (22.75) at Tennessee (22.75)
  • Carolina (19.5) at New Orleans (30)
  • Tampa Bay (15.75) at Detroit (25.75)
  • St. Louis (23.5) at Washington (21)
  • NY Jets (17.25) at Minnesota (23.5)
  • Buffalo (18.75) at Denver (28.75)
  • Kansas City (19.75) at Arizona (20.75)
  • San Francisco (24.25) at Oakland (16.25)
  • Seattle (23.75) at Philadelphia (24.75)
  • New England (27) at San Diego (23.5)
  • Atlanta (21.5) at Green Bay (34.5)

Bye: N/A
Salaries: (FanDuel/DraftKings)

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees (9,400/9,100) – Brees returns home after his five-touchdown effort on the road. It is hard to imagine him topping last week’s performance but he is at home where his splits are better and he faces a Carolina defense that gives up top 10 production to opposing QB’s. The Saints have the second highest projected scoring total for the week.

Matt Ryan (7,900/7,000) – Ryan is not a play I would feel comfortable with in a cash game but he does have some value in a tournament format. The Packers have shut down opposing QB’s in Lambeau and Ryan has some weak road splits. He should benefit from a lot of volume as the Falcons figure to have to throw early and often to stay in the game on Monday Night.

Jay Cutler (8,300/7,200) – Cutler has been anything but consistent this year so beware of using him in a cash game. He does offer value in a tournament against a Cowboys defense that is top 10 against opposing QB’s over the last five weeks. This game is the second highest total if you are including the Thursday night matchup.

Running Backs

Jonathan Stewart

Jonathan Stewart should see 15-20 touches in Wk 14.

Matt Forte (9,100/8,700) – Look for the Bears to get back to running the ball after completely abandoning the run on Thanksgiving. Going into last week, Forte had been averaging over 24 touches per game including 6.5 catches per game. Dallas has been giving up top 3 production to opposing RB’s over the last five weeks.

Rashad Jennings (7,400/7,100) - or Andre Williams (6,500/4,400) – Be sure to check the injury report with this situation to see if Jennings (ankle) is going to play. Tennessee is giving up the most points to opposing RB’s over the last five weeks and the second most over the season. If Jennings is good to go then start him with confidence, otherwise Williams becomes a great value.

UPDATE – See the note above. Jennings value has decreased with his limited practice this week. He is listed as a game time decision.

Bishop Sankey (5,400/4,000) – Sankey has not had his breakout game this season, but if there is a week that he will do it, facing the Giants rush defense is as good a time as any. Sankey has seen double digit touches every week since Week 5. With his volume of touches he should be able to pay off his price tag. A visit to the end zone would be a nice bonus.

Jonathan Stewart (5,200/3,800) – With DeAngelo Williams likely sideline with a fractured hand, Stewart will see a bulk of the touches for Carolina. He gets to face a Saints defense that has been the worst against the run over the last three weeks.

C.J. Anderson (7,800/7,600) – UPDATE – Anderson has seen 30-plus touches the last two weeks. Buffalo has been tough against the run but they are giving up 4.47 yards per carry average over their last six games. With the Bills focusing on Peyton Manning, Anderson should find room to run.

Wide Recievers

Dez Bryant (8,600/7,100) – The Bears have given up top 10 production to opposing WRs this year. Dez is priced as the 8th and 14th wide receiver at Fanduel and DraftKings respectively. He has top wideout potential at a reduced price.

Mike Wallace (7,100/5,200) – Baltimore has given up 8 touchdowns to opposing wideouts over the last four games and Wallace barely missed a couple of touchdowns last week. Jarvis Landry has been getting similar targets and production but will be more widely owned making Wallace a bit of a contrarian play.

Kendall Wright (6,700/5,400) – With Justin Hunter (spleen) on season ending IR, Wright stands to see a few more targets going forward. He is coming off his best week of the season and has a good rapport with Mettenberger. Mettenberger is questionable but likely to play. Downgrade Wright a bit with Locker under center.

UPDATE – Shortly after publishing, information came out that Wright broke a bone in his hand during practice. He is listed as doubtful for this week. This opens up opportunities for Delanie Walker (Tight End listed below) and Nate Washington (6,600/4,600).

Kenny Stills (6,400/6,000) – Since teammate Brandin Cooks was lost to injury, Stills has had the most targets in the Saints offense. Carolina is giving up top 10 production to opposing WRs this season. Jump on Stills while his price is still low.

Stedman Bailey (6,300/4,300) – Bailey has an outstanding matchup against the Washington secondary this week. He has become Shaun Hill’s favorite target. There has been quite a bit of buzz around Bailey so expect his ownership to be a little higher this week.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham (7,100/6,400) – Coming off a no-catch, no-target game last week, look for Graham to get involved early and often at home this week. His ownership will be down after last weeks results.

Antonio Gates (5,600/4,700) – Gates has not found the end zone since Week 8 in Denver. I expect that to change this week at home against New England who is giving up top 10 production to opposing tight ends. This game has shootout potential on Sunday night as it is one of four games with a total in the 50’s.

Delanie Walker (5,400/4,200) – Walker is coming off a down week where he saw just 1 catch for 6 yards. If Mettenberger starts this week, look for Walker to rebound in a decent matchup versus the Giants.

Defenses

Houston (5,300/3,700)
Detroit (5,300/3,400)
San Francisco (5,600/3,600)

Good luck this week!

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