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Jayson Werra | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Dose: Week 12
11/20/14


Last week I advised that you should check out a cash game contest that involves the Thursday game even if you do not use the players from the game. Did you do it? In one my DraftKings 50/50’s, a fellow contestant had eight of his nine players going in the Thursday night game. Even though this person did well with Jarvis Landry and Chris Hogan, it was not enough to offset the performances of Scott Chandler and Robert Woods. This roster had a final score at the end of the week of 80.5 points - just 0.005 percent of the contestants had a worse score. Now this is an extreme example, but I saw quite a few other lineups loaded up with Thursday players. This week has a chance to be similar with a lower point total in a division matchup. Now Jamaal Charles will be highly owned and I cannot argue that he is worth a roster spot. He has averaged 120 yards over his last five games and has seven touchdowns over that stretch. However, you can be sure that there will be plenty of lineups that have many other suboptimal players from Thursday night’s game negating any advantage Charles provides. I think I have hammered home that point so we will move forward.

This is the last week for bye weeks. It is also one of the last couple of weeks for the regular season in most season-long fantasy football leagues. The daily fantasy sites are continuing to grow at a rapid pace and they will be welcoming plenty of more new players as their playoff hopes are crushed. If you have been playing for a while, I hope you are enjoying the game and thank you for continuing to visit this column. If you new to the game, please check out some of the past articles as I try to include more information rather than just delivering some value picks. When you have a question on a concept or would like to offer a comment, feel free to reach out to me. I would be happy to hear from you.

As we do every week, let’s see what the odds makers think of the team scores this week.

Las Vegas scoring lines for Week 12:
  • Kansas City (25) at Oakland (17.5)
  • Cleveland (21.75) at Atlanta (25.25)
  • Tennessee (18.75) at Philadelphia (29.75)
  • Detroit (20.5) at New England (27.5)
  • Green Bay (29.25) at Minnesota (19.25)
  • Jacksonville (18.25) at Indianapolis (32.25)
  • Cincinnati (21) at Houston (22.5)
  • NY Jets (18) at Buffalo (22)
  • Tampa Bay (20.25) at Chicago (25.75)
  • Arizona (18) at Seattle (24.5)
  • St. Louis (19.75) at San Diego (24.25)
  • Miami (20.75) at Denver (28.25)
  • Washington (17.5) at San Francisco (26.5)
  • Dallas (25) at NY Giants (22)
  • Baltimore (23.5) at New Orleans (26.5)

Bye: Carolina, Pittsburgh
Salaries: (FanDuel/DraftKings)

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees (9,000/8,200) – Brees has looked less than spectacular at times and has not thrown for 300 yards since Week 8 against Green Bay. Like the Packers game, this week Brees is at home in primetime, which plays well into his stat splits. The Saints are still in the playoff hunt and have one of the higher team totals for the week.

Matt Ryan (7,600/6,300) – I do not expect Ryan to be a popular pick this week, making him a good contrarian play. He has not topped 300 yards since Week 5 and has only thrown for multiple touchdowns once since Week 4. Ryan has thrown seven of his 17 touchdowns in the three games inside the Georgia Dome. Cleveland has performed well against opposing quarterbacks, but for the price I will give Ryan a shot at home.

Colin Kaepernick

Kaepernick makes for a good tournament play in DFS.

Colin Kaepernick (7,300/6,500) – It is tough to trust Kaepernick and his body of work this year as he has only thrown for 300 yards once, multiple touchdowns three times and he is averaging just over thirty yards per game rushing on the season. I would not trust Kaepernick in my cash game lineup, but I would give him a shot in tournaments against the struggling Washington defense that is giving up top-three production to opposing quarterbacks.

Josh McCown (7,500/6,600) – Since reclaiming the starting spot a couple of games ago, McCown has thrown for nearly 600 yards and four touchdowns. This week he goes back to Chicago in a revenge game to face the worst pass defense in the league.

Running Backs

LeSean McCoy (7,700/6,200) – McCoy has shown up in this article a couple of times in recent weeks. While he is not performing like the top three pick that he was in redraft leagues, a combination of his daily price tag and is volume of touches makes him a good value candidate. This week he faces a Titans defense that was torched by Le’Veon Bell on Monday night to the tune of 200-plus yards and a touchdown. Look for McCoy to get another twenty plus touches and maybe he can find the end zone for just the third time this season.

Rashad Jennings (6,600/5,100) – In his first game back from injury, Jennings saw 18 carries and four catches. Although his yardage was not where investors would have hoped, the touches alone make him a good value at this salary. This week in a primetime matchup he faces a Dallas defense that is giving up 4.8 yards per carry.

Trent Richardson (5,700/4,900) – Richardson should be the main workload beneficiary of Ahmad Bradshaw’s (ankle) season ending injury. He has not performed very well this year but he has a nice match up at home against Jacksonville this week.

Tre Mason (5,600/4,200) – Last week the rookie topped 100 yards for the first time in his career and did so on thirty touches. While I do not expect another thirty touch week, Mason has solidified himself as the feature back in St. Louis. This week he faces the San Diego defense who has given up an average of 100 yards and a touchdown over the last four games.

Wide Recievers

As an extra note about pass catchers this week, I am not a huge fan of a lot of the deeper value plays on FanDuel. The salaries are not that wide from top to bottom so I will be loading up on the big names and finding my values elsewhere.

Odell Beckham Jr. (7,500/6,100) – Since the bye, Beckham is averaging seven catches on eleven targets for 119 yards. He has emerged as a top target of Eli Manning.

Percy Harvin (6,400/4,700) – Coming off his third bye week of the season, Harvin should be well rested and even better acquainted with the Jets offense. That is not a great offense and there is a low projected score in this game so his upside is limited. Harvin is averaging nine targets in the passing game and has been involved in the running game as well, giving him a decent value.

Marques Colston (6,000/4,200) – With Brandin Cooks (thumb) done for the season, Colston figures to see a few more targets in the coming weeks. Baltimore is giving up top-five production to opposing wide receivers.

Allen Hurns (5,900/3,200) – Hurns (concussion) is no longer on the injury report making him a nice value at DraftKings where his price is just $200 over the minimum. He will be in the starting lineup and should see decent volume in a game that Jacksonville figures to throw early and often to stay in the game.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham (7,500/7,000) – Graham is going to be a staple in my cash game lineups this week. He is a favorite target of Brees and figures to see a few more looks with the loss of Brandin Cooks. At the position, Graham is as sure as they come for some safe points.

Jason Witten (5,700/4,400) – Witten has seen an uptick in targets over his last three games and has scored in two of his last three. The Giants have given up four touchdowns in their last four games including two to Gavin Escobar last time these two teams met.

Larry Donnell (5,500/3,900) – Here is a start your tight end against the Dallas Cowboys play. In their first meeting this year Donnell caught seven passes for 90 yards. If you are looking for a cheap play at the position, Donnell is a viable option.

Defenses

Philadelphia (5,100/3,400)
Buffalo (5,200/3,300)
Indianapolis (5,600/3,200)

Good luck this week!

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