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Jayson Werra | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Daily Dose: Week 1
Betting Lines Can Tell The Story
8/6/14


Week One of the NFL season is finally here. No matter how happy or displeased you are with the lineup in your seasonal leagues, you still have the opportunity to create an exciting and high-scoring lineup on the daily fantasy sites. Each week in this section you will find some tips, suggestions and value plays to help grow your bankroll and maybe even take down some big tournaments. If you are new to this section or daily fantasy sports, be sure to check out the preseason articles on Getting Started with Daily Fantasy Football and Setting Your Daily Fantasy Lineup to push yourself ahead of the beginners curve.

One of the best places to start when considering who to use in your lineups is the betting lines for the games. This will clue you in to who the odds makers think will score well this weekend. With a little easy math, you can break it down even further by the team and not just by the game. Here is how Las Vegas sees the scoring this weekend.

  • Green Bay (20.5) at Seattle (26.5)
  • New Orleans (27.25) at Atlanta (24.25)
  • Minnesota (19.75) at St. Louis (23.75)
  • Cleveland (17.5) at Pittsburgh (24)
  • Jacksonville (21) at Philadelphia (31.5)
  • Oakland (17.25) at NY Jets (22.75)
  • Cincinnati (20.75) at Baltimore (22.25)
  • Buffalo (20) at Chicago (27)
  • Washington (21) at Houston (24)
  • Tennessee (20) at Kansas City (23.5)
  • New England (26) at Miami (21)
  • Carolina (20.5) at Tampa Bay (18.5)
  • San Francisco (28) at Dallas (23.5)
  • Indianapolis (24) at Denver (31.5)
  • NY Giants (20.75) at Detroit (26.25)
  • San Diego (21) at Arizona (24)

As you can see from the lines above, Philadelphia, Denver and San Francisco are all projected to put up at least four touchdowns. New Orleans, Chicago, Seattle, Detroit and New England are all within a field goal of four touchdowns as well. This does not mean you should exclusively use players from these games, but picking quite a few from them would be favorable. Avoid loading your lineup with players from Oakland, Cleveland and Carolina based on their low score projections. We know the games are not played on paper and these are not perfect, but this is a good baseline to use in your research.

Now that we are armed with that information, let’s look at some of the players I will use in my daily lineups this week. Note that I have listed the salaries for FanDuel and DraftKings in that order. Salaries and how they relate to value will vary based on the site you play on.

Jay Cutler

Cutler's price makes him an attractive daily QB1.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks are usually easier to predict, and if you have the money, it is reasonable to pay for the top players. If that does not fit the budget this week, you can look at these players:

Value play –

  • Shaun Hill (5,000, 5,000) – a good tournament play, although at this price he may be heavily owned.

Running Backs

Running backs are typically consistent at the top. I like to have at least one high-volume workhorse to pair with one of these following players:

  • Frank Gore (7,200, 5,200)
  • Andre Ellington (6,800, 6,000) - Foot injury. Keep and eye on status reports this weekend. 9/6 Update: Ellington will be a game-time decision and is no longer recommended even if he does play. If you still plan on chancing it Monday night, you do have a llate switch option on DraftKings. Having Ellington in your flex spot would give you both running back and wide receiver options to choose from.
  • Shane Vereen (6,600, 6,100)
  • Bernard Pierce (6,100, 4,600)
  • Fred Jackson (5,800, 4,400)

Wide Recievers

Wide Receiver is the position that I look to spend my money. The top players have a high floor, or in other words, normally produce reliable points. You will not be able to get all studs on your roster though, so check out some of the value plays as well:

Value play –

Tight Ends

Tight Ends are where I will pay up if I have the money; otherwise I am looking for straight value picks.

Kickers

Kickers (DraftKings does not have this position) pick one on a good, but not great, offense that fits your remaining budget. I look to pay the minimum at this volatile position.

Defenses

Defenses can vary from week to week, so it is not advisable to pay top dollar but rather find a value play based on matchup.

Best of luck as you get into the exciting world of daily fantasy sports.

Suggestions, comments? E-mail me.