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20/20 Hindsight - Week 15
12/19/06

As we all know Hindsight is 20/20. This weekly column is devoted to learning from common mistakes and serves as FFToday’s “Fantasy Football Confessional.”

Although it was another putrid week for my FFTOC team, my showcase teams both advanced to the championship game—one in dramatic fashion. My defending championship team came back from a 25-point deficit after Steve McNair left the game with zilch on the fantasy scoreboard—thanks to a 4th Quarter touchdown reception from Reggie Brown, a fellow UGA alumnus I might add (fellow Dawgs have to stick together).

Here are the box scores for my two teams advancing to the championship round:

SOFA Auction League

 Fantasy Guru  FF Today
Player Pts. Player Pts.
Rivers, Philip SDC QB 3.68 Pennington, Chad NYJ QB 18.66
Fargas, Justin OAK RB 6.3 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 23.5
Jackson, Steven STL RB 24.7 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 33.4
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR 11.6 Driver, Donald GBP WR 14.7
Harrison, Marvin IND WR 34.6 Holmes, Santonio PIT WR 11.5
Williams, Roy DET WR 2.1 Wayne, Reggie IND WR 21.4
Heap, Todd BAL TE 10.8 McMichael, Randy MIA TE 8.1
Tynes, Lawrence KCC PK 9.0 Scobee, Josh JAC PK 5.0
Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def 6.0 Patriots, New England NEP Def 25.0
Total: 108.8 Total: 161.3

Money well spent on LT, but Pennington, Holmes, and the Pats defense have been excellent waiver wire options once Kurt Warner, Amani Toomer, and the Colts defense were no longer viable starts. As you can see, I still have trouble pulling the trigger on Vince Young despite threatening to start him on almost a weekly basis. This time the match up of Pennington versus the Vikings porous pass defense was too enticing.

Fantasy Auctioneer Expert Invitational

 Talented Mr. Roto  FF Today
Player Pts. Player Pts.
Brady, Tom NEP QB 13 McNair, Steve BAL QB 0
Lewis, Jamal BAL RB 14 Jackson, Steven STL RB 24
McAllister, Deuce NOS RB 12 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 19
Glenn, Terry DAL WR 9 Brown, Reggie PHI WR 13
Henderson, Devery NOS WR 2 Clayton, Mark BAL WR 4
Walker, Javon DEN WR 14 Driver, Donald GBP WR 7
Witten, Jason DAL TE 5 Heap, Todd BAL TE 5
Wilkins, Jeff STL PK 8 Scobee, Josh JAC PK 6
Bears, Chicago CHI Def 6 Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 10
Total: 83 Total: 88

I completely lucked out in this game. In fact, I should have started Santonio Holmes over Mark Clayton and the risk of using too many Ravens in one lineup nearly cost me. Still, I drafted for consistency at the receiver position and Driver, Brown, and Heap have rewarded me here.

As for the FFTOC, I can look at it two ways: I either had two players save me from a beat down or I wasted two excellent efforts with poor receiver choices.

FFTOC Update
 Pos  Player  Pts  Comments
QB P. Manning 36.28 Wasted this great game due to my receiving corps
RB M. Barber 21.6 My team started well, but see the beat down below…
RB R. Bush 3.3 BAM!!!
WR D. Stallworth 0.5 BOOM!!!
WR E. Kennison 4.3 POW!!!
WR M. Booker 0.0 CRASH!!!
TE C. Cooley 8.0 Satisfactory.
K Jay Feely 10.0 Figures my kicker is among the high scorers for this sorry lineup.
DEF Jacksonville 3.0 Meh…
  Total 86.99 If this doesn’t end my hopes, then a major miracle must be on the horizon.

Would've (From The Who Would Have Known File)

Maurice Jones Drew Was A Better Start Than Fred Taylor
When a player like Taylor has a bad hammy or groin and is slated to gut it out, you know that’s not a good sign. Taylor is an explosive runner in terms of his movement and acceleration. He makes some of the most violent cuts in the game. You don’t start a runner with a muscle issue that has this kind of style if you have a more viable option. Now that Drew is banged up, I might have to take this advice for my championship game next week. The one thing going for me is Drew’s youth and the fact Taylor will be out. The worst-case scenario is I start Cadillac Williams for the first time in weeks against the Brown. With Rattay jump- starting the offense against the Bears, this suddenly doesn’t sound like such a bad option.

Could've (From The Who Could Have Known File)

The Titans Defense Would Be A Fantasy Force
Three touchdowns off interceptions last week—are you kidding me? Just how many fantasy owners had the Titans defense? Seriously, yours truly drafted them in one league but only did so to bide his time for a better defense to make its way to the waiver wire. I’d love to see the percentage of teams that started the Titans defense last weekend—I bet it was less than 3% of owners overall.

Despite the fact that Tennessee continues to improve and play hard, Jacksonville’s passing game has taken a step backwards. David Garrard is not a consistent passer at this point, but the receiving corps still has a long way to go with routes and concentration.

Should've (From The I Knew I Should’ve File)

Kept My Mouth Shut About Marion Barber III
If you know anything about my choices at RB this season you understand that it’s probably good to go the opposite way when I’m discussing options for your #2 back. In fact, I took my own cue and started Barber III against the Falcons with the hope he’d have a rebound game from his negative one-yard effort versus New Orleans. The Cowboys #2 RB runs with such great balance and determination.

I think the more important question is whether Barber has earned the opportunity to be the main back in Dallas in 2007. My personal theory is that Barber is Parcells’ favorite and Jones is the owner’s guy. I have a feeling there will be some sort of shake up in 2007—a change in the depth chart or possibly a trade if Jones makes a big enough stink (and Dallas can find a way to deal him).

Nagging Feelings—Week 16

Is it time to dust Michael Turner off and place him in your lineups in week 16? Philip Rivers has been impressive for a first-year starter, but he’s going to need to improve his play in January if the Chargers have any serious hope of reaching the Super Bowl. San Diego’s defense dominated Kansas City through three and a half quarters, but the warm weathered environs of Southern California won’t serve as the advantage that a cold-weather team might have in the playoffs. Baltimore, New England, or Indianapolis’ offenses will probably feel pretty good about playing January football in this climate. This will place the pressure on the Chargers passing game and I don’t believe Rivers is ready to perform at this level with the consistency to help the Chargers advance. They better hope to jump out early and the opposing offenses make enough mistakes for San Diego to play ball control and bleed the clock.

I know it’s a meaningless game, but Jay Cutler clearly outshined Matt Leinart in this match up between rookie quarterbacks. That sick, 63-yard touchdown pass after rolling and quickly setting his feet before delivering a rope while getting nailed by a pass rusher demonstrated what I said in the 2006 Rookie Scouting Porfolio about what separates Cutler from Leinart: The arm strength to deliver a rocket throw from a variety of angles. Yes, I know the Broncos have a better defense than the Cardinals, but Arizona does have better skill players. Plus Leinart threw an interception on a play where he also rolled to the opposite site of this throwing motion, had to quickly set his feet, and take a hit. Cutler could do it, Leinart couldn’t. It’s the difference between a good quarterback that could be great in the right system and a franchise player that could play in any system.