As we all know Hindsight is 20/20. This weekly column is devoted
to learning from common mistakes and serves as FFToday's "Fantasy
Entering the final week of the FFTOC's qualifying rounds, my
plan for the final month was working well. I moved up from 488th
place to 195th1.16 ahead of the last qualifying team. All I needed
to do last week was maintain a ranking within the top 200 to advance.
Considering how narrow the point distribution is among most of
the teams jockeying for a qualifying position, maintaining my
ranking might not be so easy. In fact, it's going to be too close
||Originally scheduled B. Leftwich for
this week, but glad I changed to Brees.
||Yardage totals weren’t great, but his
two touchdowns did the trick.
||Thought about Rudi Johnson here, wish
I stuck with my original plan.
||Not bad, but didn’t expect this total
from my #1.
||Originally went with Stokely—this could
be the difference in my season.
||Eric Parker and K. Washington were options.
Moss’ return put a dent here.
||Glad I waited on Gates. Should have
started every Charger WR this week!
||That attempted game winner would have
been nice to have…
||Parcels had to ruin it by taking Henson
out of the game.
The difference was my decision to keep Rudi Johnson and Brandon
Stokely on the bench. Adding these two players would have easily
kept me in the top 200, but my alternatives were big disappointments.
I did wind up averaging 17 points more than my calculated baseline
for the month of November, but the fact I was only 1.16 ahead of
the last team going into week 12 means it could come down to as
little as a point or less.
My second RB choice really places me in jeopardy. I originally slated
Rudi Johnson for week 12, but the Browns were allowing less than
four yards per carry and I wanted to go with more of a sure thing
for this final week. I considered Warrick Dunn versus the Saints'
horrible run defense, but came to my senses when I realized Jim
Mora's decision to take the leash off Vick's running was cutting
into Dunn's production. Unfortunately, my other two alternatives
to Martin were William Green (75 yards and a score) and McGahee
(116 yards and four scores)either might mean the difference
between playing for the $10,000 and my FFTOC season coming to an
end. Even Michael Pittman was a better play.
Lesson Learned? Play to win. Play to win. Play to win. This is the
one piece of advice I have neglected all season and it's cost me
some pivotal games. Going with Martin was a decision to play "not
to lose," and turned out to be the worst RB choice of all my
options. Benching Stokely was also a clear decision to play it safe.
I originally though to start the Colts' slot receiver for all the
But just hours before the game I lost my nerve to start him. But
107 points scored doesn't mean all is lost. In fact, if I do managed
to make it, I still have some decent players available for the last
month of the season. Some aren't big names, but they are playing
well enough down the stretch to be nice choices:
- They were playing in a dome.
- The Detroit pass defense is weak.
- Stokely's best performances were at home (dome & turf).
|FFTOC - Still Available
Although many of my studs are gone, I'd still like to see what I
can do with these up and comers for the next month. Stay tuned.
On to the weekly files of 20/20 Hindsight …
Willis McGahee would score four touchdowns? Although Seattle's
defense is statistically pretty good, the loss of Grant Wistrom
and Anthony Simmons to season-ending injuries really hampered
the Seahawks. McGahee has been looking better with every week
he's been the starter. Want more evidence? Just look at the Bills
over the past two weeks with wins over the Rams and SeahawksMcGahee
has opened up the passing game with his ability to break the long
Lessons Learned: When the entire offense's production improves
with the insertion of one player into the lineup, that speaks
volumes about that playerMcGahee is here to stay.
Jamaar Taylor would catch more than 100 yards worth of passes?
Taylor, a rookie out of Texas A&M was impressive in training
camp and had been getting increased looks in the lineup after
Tim Carter was lost for the season. Taylorlike Bernard Berrian
of the Bearshas shown flashes of talent leading up to this
week. Now that rookie stable mate, Eli Manning, is in the lineup,
Taylor becomes a more viable option due to their familiarity with
each other as cohorts on the depth chart to begin the season.
Lesson Learned: Unless you are in a league like the FFTOC, there's
no reason to consider starting a guy like Taylor until he proves
he can have some consistent production. If you are in such a league,
starting WRs that share the bench with a back up might not be
a bad gamble on occasion: Berrian with Krentzel, Taylor with Manning,
Houshmanzadeh with Palmer, etc.
Jerry Porter would have 136 yards and 3 touchdowns on Champ Bailey?
Porter had one touchdown all year before busting out in last night's
Denver snowstorm. Although the first touchdown pass looked like
a Bailey slightly misjudged the pass and barely missed getting
the ball as he dove for it, the other two scores weren't even
Lesson Learned: Bad weather is a great equalizer when it comes
to athletic ability. Even the aging Rod Smith proved this point
with a career long, 85-yard touchdown reception.
Brandon Stokely was a must-start. Just check the FFToday message
boards and you could find at least two threads from last week
that detailed which conditions made Stokely a better start than
others. When you think about it, the Colts decision to go with
more three-WR sets on turf makes sense. The Colts are a highly
versatile offense. On grass, this team can go with a two-tight
end set and be just as balanced on turf with a three-receiver,
one-back set. Stokely is making the type of impact that Az-Hakim
did for the Rams offense in 1999. The difference is that Stokely
is arguably a better receiver with a better quarterback.
Lesson Learned: Play to win. Play to win. Play to win.
For those of you that made the right decisions this week, congratulations.
For those of you that didn't: Hindsight's a