Week 11
11/16/07
Steppin' Up
Marc Bulger,
STL: The Rams QB is screaming up the fantasy rankings in the last
three weeks. He’s ranked 24th overall by fantasy points for the
season, but in the last two games Bulger has completed 51 out
of 69 passes for 612 yards with three scores. He literally completed
81.8% of his passes against the Saints week. I don’t care how
bad the Saints secondary is, they are still an NFL unit and an
81.8% completion percentage is too good to ignore. Plus, the Rams
get a 49er team that has fallen on hard times. The San Francisco
secondary isn’t bad—they only allow 9.6% more points per game
against fantasy QBs than the NFL average, but in the past three
weeks they’ve been on a tear of a bad kind—offering up 21.5 fantasy
points per game to opposing QBs. With Steven Jackson back in the
lineup, Bulger is a great start this weekend with a strong possibility
of keeping up the torrid pace down the stretch.
Steppin' Down
Philip Rivers,
SD: For the past three weeks he’s been 39 of 77 for 431 yards
with 3 picks to 3 scores against the Colts, Vikings, and Texans.
While he only threw the football 11 times versus Houston, he was
a combined 48% with his completion percentage in the next two
games. The Jaguars are statistically a great match up for Rivers—they
allow 35.8% more fantasy points per game to QBs than the NFL average—but
that number is fairly inflated due to Drew Brees and his 35 for
49, 445-yard, 3-touchdown effort in week 9. I know the Chargers
just beat the Colts, but Indy’s offense was not nearly at full
strength and even so, San Diego would have lost that game if you
took Adam Viniatieri’s career and projected it as a whole. The
Jaguars will likely get Garrard back and will be playing at home,
which should help the defense. I’d lay off Rivers this week.
Steppin' Up
Clinton
Portis, WAS: Have you noticed that Portis has been well over
a c-note the past two games? He’s running with conviction and
it doesn’t seem to matter how Jason Campbell and company are doing
through the air. Portis has long been a second half player. I’m
not sure why that is—probably the same reason some people are
perky in the morning as opposed to being wide awake past midnight—but
some things you just don’t need to question too hard. Plus, Portis
has reverted to coming into the Redskins press conferences in
drag—another good sign that he’s feeling confident. Seriously,
you can’t wander around in public looking like that unless you’re
playing well. Dallas may seem like a logical opponent where this
will stop, but in the past two games they have allowed 168 yards
on 44 carries with two scores—11th-most in a three-week period.
Although that’s not horrible, it’s worse than I would have imagined
for the Cowpokes. Look for Clinton to be wig shopping for next
Wednesday—start him if you got him, Shaneenee, or whoever else
he’s calling himself these days.
Steppin' Down
Ryan Grant,
GB: Grant has two nice games against the Vikings and Broncos.
This week he’s facing a Panther’s defense that is only 7.1% worse
than the NFL average versus fantasy backs. There last three weeks
were pretty rough, but considering they faced Vince Young and
Joey Harrington as two of those three QBs (Peyton Manning was
the third), you can imagine why the run was a more likely scenario.
Grant has been good, but look for him to take a step back in week
11.
Steppin' Up
Hines Ward,
PIT: Ward is the 32nd-best fantasy receiver in total points,
but he’s 7th over the last three weeks. The fact that Santonio
Holmes is back to full speed and terrorizing defenses with his
speed is a big reason. Plus Ward eventually finds his way onto
the stat sheet in a bigger way at some point in the season. He’s
like a Swiss Army Knife for an offense in the red zone. He’ll
run it, throw it, catch it in the corner, or in traffic. The Jets
can see it coming, but they won’t be able to stop it.
Steppin' Down
Antwaan Randle El, WAS: Nagging hammy? Not a good sign. With James
Thrash playing out of his mind last week, I see the former Steeler
and Hoosier playing decoy this week against a Dallas secondary
vulnerable to the big play. Plus, Washington only has one touchdown
catch from a wide receiver (thanks FFToday News)…
Fallin' Down
Kevin Curtis
PHI: What is wrong this Curtis? 22 targets in three games
put him among the top 20, but his production has him barely in
the top 40! He and McNabb are out of sync. It’s obvious, the Eagles
are committed to getting him the ball, but it’s just not working
out right now. Curtis has a great shot to redeem himself against
Miami, but I’m more partial to Reggie Brown who is converting
on half his targets.
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