As we all know Hindsight is 20/20. This weekly column is devoted
to learning from common mistakes and serves as FFToday’s “Fantasy
yards on 30 carries—9.86 yards a carry against the Chargers defense—for
What is there to say? When television anchors are calling Clinton
Portis’ hard-running performance almost “Adrian Peterson-like,”
you understand how fast Peterson has shot up the rankings. Regardless
of the fact that he’s running behind a great line, his balance
in the open field is extraordinary. Peterson is still shedding
DBs without losing a step just like he did at Oklahoma. Can Peterson
be one the handful of NFL greats to break the 2000-yard mark?
Well, I said in the beginning of the season that I would have
rather had Marshawn
Lynch due to the fact that I felt Lynch came out of college
with better skills as a pass blocker, receiver, and protector
of the football. All those things about Lynch are still true,
but Peterson turned out to be what I also said best about him
But you will also see a runner with amazing balance that is extremely
difficult to knock off his feet; a runner with the rare agility
to successfully put spin moves on linebackers and safeties for
a man of his size and strength; and a runner, when determined,
has the sheer will to make yardage when nothing seems available
for him to gain any. Adrian Peterson is gifted. When it comes
to purely running the football and not getting tackled, I’m
not sure there is a back in football I’d rather have.
Too bad I didn’t recognize Peterson as that “play to win” pick when
it came to making an aggressive move in my drafts.
Despite my scoring tailing off in the FFTOC recent weeks, I entered
week 9 still #17 overall. But this week could be a killer.
||Remind me to veer in the opposite direction
when Matthew Berry, D.J. Nestrick, and I agree on the
same “good play.”
||Finally hit big on a back this season.
Not A.D., but not too shabby.
||And he was off to such a good start
in the first half…
||…And he saved some face in the second
||I was considering him or Jennings—oops!
||Had Kellen Winslow here…first guess
||And he missed two FGs!!!
||Playing a good young QB they don’t have
much tape on…bad idea that I decided to start this defense.
Imagine if I used Detroit!
I’m about at my limit with poor outings after this clunker.
If there were enough decent teams with Brees and/or Peterson in
their lineup, I could tumble down the rankings quite a ways.
Let’s move on to the week one files of 20/20 Hindsight.
Greg Jennings Would Become Favre’s Big
Play Guy: In less than a week Greg
Jennings has caught three bombs for scores. Jennings demonstrated
in spurts as a rookie that he had a knack for getting deep. Favre
actually was quoted last year as saying Jennings had the potential
to be the best receiver he’s ever had (check and find). The reason
Jennings is coming to life has as much to do with the presence
of Donald Driver and James Jones as it does his full recovery
from an injury sustained early in the season. Favre now has three
receivers with the speed to go deep, but the hands and toughness
to go across the middle.
Certain types of receivers can make a passing offense more rigid
than others. A perfect example is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Dennis
Northcutt is a great underneath option, but his effectiveness
is generally within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. If Northcutt
gets open deep, it’s the occasional great route/blown coverage/opposing
DB slipped situation. Earnest Wilford is the same kind of player,
but has enough height to be a redzone threat—although the
Jags no longer utilize him this way. He also doesn’t play
enough to be considered a starter. John Broussard is a burner,
but he’s a rookie and a vast majority of his targets are
deep routes. Reggie Williams has decent build-up speed, but he’s
not sudden. He also seems content with his being below average
as a pro. I bet he doesn’t realize that’s what he
is—he probably blames his lack of playing time and looks
on the QB and coaching staff—but his lack of opportunities
comes from his inconsistency of performance and remaining professional.
In other words, he’s been in the league 4 years and he’s
And I can’t even begin to tell you about Matt Jones because
as a rookie he appeared to have the skills to become a multi-dimensional
receiver. Is he injury prone? Is the reason he’s in the
doghouse warranted or not?
What this means is Jacksonville better have a lead for be facing
a lesser team because defenses really don’t have to pick their
poison. They can dare the Jags to throw because they know who
the dangerous deep guy is. The Jags are an extreme example, but
you can also see the same thing with a team like the Bears—Berrian
is the one multi-purpose guy and the rest are either underneath
possession players or strictly deep threats. The Giants (until
Steve Smith gets healthy and more experienced) and Bills are the
same type of team. This is a bit better situation to have, but
still allows defenses some ability to strategize effectively.
But teams such as New England, Indy, and Green Bay have 2-3 receivers
with the speed to get deep, but the ability to make catches anywhere
on the field. This poses way more issues for a defense.
Lesson Learned: The more big
play receivers there are on the same team, the more likely each
of those receivers will be on the receiving end of a big play.
Priest Holmes Might Be Starting In Week
10: Jeffrey Chahida of ESPN reported that Larry
Johnson was carted off the field with an ankle injury late in
yesterday’s game. If the injury proves serious, Holmes
might be starting next week against the Broncos. Is Holmes ready
to go? My inclination is yes—for the short term. I believe Holmes
has enough gas in the tank for a few, high-carry games—just enough
for Johnson to recuperate. The Chiefs wouldn’t have traded Michael
Bennett if they didn’t believe they had enough depth in case Johnson
wore down. Regardless of what NFL teams say, you know they are
well aware of the subsequent history of 400-carry backs.
The other possibility to consider is Kolby Smith, the rookie
from Louisville who impressed Kansas City in training camp. He
has good vision and enough of a burst to at least keep the chains
moving. The big question will be how much action does Smith get?
Will the backfield situation become a committee or will Holmes
and Smith have their on defined situational roles? My guess is
they will try to put the load on Holmes for the short term and
Lessons Learned: Nearly anything
might happen in an NFL season and what a difference a year makes…
Detroit’s Defense Could Outscore The Bronco’s
Offense: 5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 2 scores, and 1 int.
Heck, the Lions were almost as good as the Steeler’s James Harrison,
who scored 43.5 points in one of my fantasy leagues (nearly enough
to beat my squad)!
Lesson Learned: Anything did
happen in an NFL season!
Known Ben Roethlisberger Is Fantasy Money
In The Bank: His great
year isn't quiet anymore—although his apparent hip pointer
sidelined him temporarily in the 3rd quarter. Five touchdown passes
for a Pittsburgh quarterback? Running team? Yeah, I said it in
my bold predictions (at
this rate this and Stephen Jackson might be the only ones that
happen) that Roethlisberger
would throw for 4000 yards and 25 scores. So far, over 1700 yards
and 20 scores—he’ll need to average nearly 290 yards per game
to get to 4000, but the touchdown mark is well within reach—he
could wind up with 35 at this rate!
Lesson Learned: Just look at
the receivers on this team and tell me this team will only run
the football???? Heath Miller is a quality tight end. Hines Ward
is potentially a Hall of Fame receiver. Santonio Holmes is a season
or two away from performing like an all-star.
Lee Evans Would Catch Fire With Losman
In The Lineup: Did you see Losman target Evans
in double coverage? Did you see Evans snag balls while getting
his facemask ripped skyward? If you did, then you know the lesson…
Lesson Learned: Lee Evans is
one of the best receivers in football—he just needs a quarterback
who will throw him the ball. Forget Keyshawn Johnson—get Evans
the damn ball!
Nagging Feelings—Week 10
is done. Yep, I said it. His career is over. The guy can’t move
around any more. I don’t know if it’s the suit of armor that looks
like he’s now encased before games that he didn’t have to wear
5 years ago or all the injuries that have robbed him of his agility.
Watching McNair and his toughness outlast his physical skills
only makes you appreciate a player like Brett Favre.
Randy Moss is the anti-T.O.? Well my pen pal who isn’t
buying it will love this quote from Tom Brady to ESPN’s
John Clayton…"He's a great player," Brady said
of Moss. "I think everything that's been written about him
is the complete opposite. He's a great teammate. He's a great
player. He's very coachable. He's very selfless. He's a great
worker. He leads by example." I have a nagging feeling I’m
going to get an e-mail very soon…
Taylor the starting runner for the Jaguars? I know I keep
picking on Jacksonville, but the team is such an easy target.
Every week Jones-Drew averages more yards per carry and he makes
bigger plays than Taylor, too. Fred Taylor was an incredible runner
and if he were one of 16 other teams I’d say he should be the
starter. But Jones-Drew could break a big one at any time with
enough opportunities. Am I the only one who sees this? As Titans
fan, I’m hoping no one feeds this section of my column to Del
Rio this week—he might get smart. Then again, he’s an USC-alum
who can’t seem to use his UCLA star to his fullest.
You know Jack, unemployment is a growing problem in this country—do
you want to go on a winning streak and save your job? Give the
ball to Jones-Drew the same amount the Vikings are giving it to
Peterson. You may not get 296 yards, but you’ll likely get 180
and more big plays than your passing game can ever dream of. If
you don’t listen to me, at least get someone to show you a recording
of Bill Parcells pointing out Jones-Drew hammering Jason David
at the end of the game on an interception return—Parcells was
ready to get out of his chair in ESPN’s studios to coach again
after talking about how much he’d want a Jones-Drew on his team.
You want to see a small market town increase its ticket sales
Jack? Keep leading the charge with inept decisions and losing
games, because Bill Parcels, Bill Cowher, or even Marty Shottenheimer
will know what to do with all that offensive talent you’ve wasted.