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The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 97
A Projections Primer Part 2: QBs
7/19/07

Rookie Scouting Portfolio The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!


Many fantasy football draft strategies involve owners projecting the statistical performance of players. Although the Gut Check has veered away from projecting stats for every offensive skill player with a likelihood of contributing on a roster, there are still a large percentage of people that either project their own stats, or at least consult the projected stats of others. The Gut Check uses the Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy as a stats projections resource. These are reasonable figures and they are calculated with a basic historical understanding of NFL stats, which shouldn’t be understated.

The Gut Check has decided to provide a historical overview of fantasy stats that will help owners avoid the common pitfall or projecting player performance—extreme over-and under-valuation of players. Last week, yours truly profiled the running back position. This week the focus is quarterbacks.

Historical Stats For Fantasy Passers

The key components one must consider when projecting quarterback performance:

  • Total Fantasy Points
  • Attempts
  • Completion Percentage
  • Passing Yards
  • Passing Touchdowns
  • Rushing Yards
  • Rushing Touchdowns

Pretty straightforward, but the way many people project stats they don’t bother to view how each stat influences the other. For instance, one isn’t demonstrating adequate knowledge of the position if one predicts a passer to sling it for 4000 yards but sets the attempts so low, the average yardage per attempt is 7 to 8 yards higher than the historical average or the completion percentage doesn’t jibe with the yardage figures. If one views the best performances with these stats, one should get a stronger idea of how to project performance.

Fantasy PointsThese point totals are for a standard scoring fantasy league: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 4 points per touchdown pass, 1 point per 10 yards rushing and 6 points per touchdown:

Yrs QB1 QB2 QB3 QB4 QB5 QB6 QB7 QB8 QB9 QB10 QB11 QB12 QB13 QB14 QB15 QB16 QB17 QB18 QB19 QB20
00-06 382.9 363.7 338.6 331 325.6 318.4 304.3 298.6 293.1 287.4 279.1 274 266.4 262 251.4 245 237.6 231.7 226 218.6
89-99 387.2 354.8 326.4 310.8 298.5 292.5 279.5 272.9 264 252.8 246.5 234.8 231.8 227.3 219.1 212 204.5 198.4 193.6 187.2
78-88 347.6 317.8 305.2 293.5 283.4 273.2 267 261.6 249.5 245 239.5 231.7 224.2 216.2 210.1 203.1 194.1 189.7 181.2 175.3

It’s very clear that quarterbacks are scoring more than ever before, but in the past seven years the drop off in fantasy points between QB4 and QB10 is far less than in previous decades. Since RBs continue to score more, it stands to reason that offenses continue to benefit from the NFL’s desire to make the game more offense-oriented for the fan base. It also means that with more signal callers scoring within a tighter range of fantasy points at the top, their value isn’t as great in most traditional scoring fantasy leagues. Backups (QB13 and lower) still have similar point differentials among each other as they did 10-20 years ago, but the QB2-QB10 performers have narrowed the gap and this makes it worth the wait on draft day.

The top 30 fantasy performances since the advent of the 16-game season predictably mirrors the averages just shown. There are only seven quarterbacks with prolific seasons from the 80’s that make this list. As a testament to Dan Marino’s greatness as a passer, he still rules the fantasy kingdom by the slightest of margins—coincidentally over a player that is likely to get cut just three years after posting two of the five best ever fantasy seasons for a quarterback in this era. The Gut Check would rather have a healthy Culpepper than a David Carr or Joey Harrington. Please don’t tell yours truly that Randy Moss is that much better than Andre Johnson and Roy Williams. The Gut Check is a Moss fan and believes New England’s new #6 is the arguably best deep ball receiver in the history of the game, but he knows the Pats new receiver is nowhere as versatile a player than either of the go to receivers that Carr and Harrington once had while starters for their respective teams. In other words, Culpepper may not be as great as his stats but he’s much better than the current public perception.

The Top 30 Fantasy Performances
Last First Year Team FPts Pct Att Pass Yds Pass Tds INT Rush Yds Rush Att Rush Tds
Marino Dan 1984 mia 445.5 64.18% 564 5084 48 17 -7 28 0
Culpepper Daunte 2004 min 444.5 69.16% 548 4717 39 11 406 89 2
Young Steve 1998 sf 433.9 62.28% 517 4170 36 12 454 70 6
Manning Peyton 2004 clt 427.7 67.61% 497 4557 49 10 38 25 0
Culpepper Daunte 2000 min 417.9 62.66% 474 3937 33 16 470 90 7
Cunningham Randall 1990 phi 417.5 58.28% 465 3466 30 13 942 118 5
Marino Dan 1986 mia 413 60.67% 623 4746 44 23 -3 12 0
Young Steve 1994 sf 409.8 70.28% 461 3969 35 10 293 58 7
Favre Brett 1995 gnb 408.8 62.98% 570 4413 38 13 181 39 3
Garcia Jeff 2000 sf 403.3 63.28% 561 4278 31 10 414 72 4
Moon Warren 1990 Oilers 400 61.99% 584 4689 33 13 215 55 2
Warner Kurt 1999 ram 396.9 65.13% 499 4353 41 13 92 23 1
Warner Kurt 2001 ram 391.5 68.68% 546 4830 36 22 60 28 0
Beuerlein Steve 1999 car 390.2 60.07% 571 4436 36 15 124 27 2
Majkowski Don 1989 gnb 389.7 58.93% 599 4318 27 20 358 75 5
Culpepper Daunte 2002 min 385.3 60.62% 551 3859 18 23 603 105 10
Cunningham Randall 1988 phi 384.8 53.75% 560 3808 24 16 624 93 6
Mitchell Scott 1995 det 379.3 59.35% 583 4338 32 12 104 36 4
Lomax Neil 1984 crd 379.1 61.61% 560 4614 28 16 184 35 3
Fouts Dan 1981 sdg 377.7 59.11% 609 4802 33 17 56 22 0
Favre Brett 1996 gnb 376.6 59.85% 543 3899 39 13 136 49 2
Gannon Rich 2002 rai 372.1 67.64% 618 4689 26 10 156 50 3
Testaverde Vinny 1996 rav 371.7 59.20% 549 4177 33 19 188 34 2
Manning Peyton 2006 clt 371.5 64.99% 557 4397 31 9 36 23 4
Manning Peyton 2000 clt 370.3 62.52% 571 4413 33 15 116 37 1
Dickey Lynn 1983 gnb 370.1 59.71% 484 4458 32 29 12 21 3
Young Steve 1993 sf 369.9 67.97% 462 4023 29 16 407 69 2
Fouts Dan 1980 sdg 369.3 59.08% 589 4715 30 24 15 23 2
Gannon Rich 2000 rai 360.4 60.04% 473 3430 28 11 529 89 4
Garcia Jeff 2001 sf 360.3 62.70% 504 3538 32 12 254 72 5

The average attempts for these top 30 performances are nearly 543 passes. Dan Marino’s 623 in 1986 were the most, and Steve Young’s 461 were the least. Young’s fantasy performance was just a few points less than Marino’s despite the huge difference in attempts. This is due to Young’s insanely high completion percentage of 70.28%. Young had nearly 800 fewer passing yards, but his completion percentage contributed to a high touchdown rate (more completions-more first downs-more touchdowns) and his 7 rushing scores put him within two total scores of Marino. But as much as Young and Randall Cunnngham were the precursor to mobile QBs one watches today, one has to be careful about projecting high rushing totals into an all-time great season.

Only five quarterbacks on this all-time great list had more than 5 rushing scores in a season—two belonged to Young, two to Culpepper, and one to Cunningham. In fact, only 22 times since 1978 did a QB rushed for more than 5 scores and fewer than ¼ of these rushing performances put the signal caller on this hallowed list. Only 9 QBS from the list had over 400 yards rushing. The combined total of average passing and rushing attempts from this list is 595 (543 passing-52 rushing) touches and the average QB from his list ran the ball once for every 10 passing attempts.

But does the rate of passing attempts naturally dictate a great fantasy season or is this like attempts for RBs and not necessarily the case? The table below is a list of the thirty-most passing attempts ever made in a 16-game season. The players highlighted on this table are also among the top thirty from the previous list ranking the all-time fantasy scorers for a season. Although there were fourteen quarterbacks within the top 50 performances only seven of the thirty attempts leaders also made the all-time fantasy-scoring list. So the situation is similar to that of runners: quarterbacks have a greater chance of earning fantasy points with more attempts, but it is not an absolute by any stretch.

Attempts
Last First Year Team FFpts Pct Att Pass Yds Pass Tds INT
Bledsoe Drew 1994 NE 331.8 57.89% 691 4555 25 27
Moon Warren 1991 Oilers 345.3 61.68% 655 4690 23 21
Bledsoe Drew 1995 NE 230.2 50.79% 636 3507 13 16
Marino Dan 1986 Mia 413 60.67% 623 4746 44 23
Bledsoe Drew 1996 NE 315 59.87% 623 4086 27 15
Gannon Rich 2002 OAK 372.1 67.64% 618 4689 26 10
Marino Dan 1994 Mia 348.1 62.60% 615 4453 30 17
Favre Brett 2006 GB 275.2 55.95% 613 3885 18 18
Bledsoe Drew 2002 Buf 332.7 61.48% 610 4359 24 15
Fouts Dan 1981 SD 377.7 59.11% 609 4802 33 17
Favre Brett 2005 GB 280.3 61.29% 607 3881 20 29
Marino Dan 1988 Mia 332 58.42% 606 4434 28 23
Moon Warren 1995 Min 351.6 62.21% 606 4228 33 14
Elway John 1985 Den 307.9 54.05% 605 3891 22 23
Kenney Bill 1983 KC 337.3 57.38% 603 4348 24 18
Moon Warren 1994 Min 290.7 61.73% 601 4264 18 19
Brady Tom 2002 NE 317.2 62.06% 601 3764 28 14
Majkowski Don 1989 GB 389.7 58.93% 599 4318 27 20
Kitna Jon 2006 Det 322 62.42% 596 4208 21 22
Favre Brett 1999 GB 306.8 57.31% 595 4091 22 23
Kramer Tommy 1981 Min 300.9 54.30% 593 3912 26 24
Manning Peyton 2002 Ind 344.8 66.33% 591 4200 27 19
Testaverde Vinny 2000 NYJ 273.8 55.59% 590 3732 21 25
Fouts Dan 1980 SD 369.3 59.08% 589 4715 30 24
Bulger Marc 2006 STL 315.5 62.93% 588 4301 24 8
Moon Warren 1990 Oilers 400 61.99% 584 4689 33 13
Mitchell Scott 1995 Det 379.3 59.35% 583 4338 32 12
Favre Brett 1994 GB 358.3 62.37% 582 3882 33 14
Kitna Jon 2001 Cin 222.1 53.87% 581 3216 12 22
Favre Brett 2000 GB 281.4 58.28% 580 3812 20 16
Attempts—When one compares the difference in average performance of the all-time point-scorers and the all-time attempts leaders, it reveals which stats are important to consider for projecting high performance. These numbers can help one profile the type of quarterback that has the potential to reach the high end of fantasy performance in a given year.

List FFpts Pct Att Yds Tds INT
Fpts 392.9 62.50% 543.1 4304.1 33.5 15.3
Att 327.4 59.60% 605.8 4199.9 25.5 18.7

The all-time fantasy point leaders averaged nearly 60 fewer throws in a season than the attempts leaders, but their completion percentage is three points higher. This doesn’t seem to be a significant difference because the yardage difference is minimal between the two lists. Yet the difference bears out with touchdowns and fantasy points. Fantasy point leaders averaged an additional 8 scores—32 points in 4 points per passing td leagues—which constitutes roughly half the fantasy point differential between the two lists (65.5).

Still, nearly 16 of the 30 passers on this list had seasons equivalent to a top-five fantasy performance during this decade, and 27 of the 30 passers on this list had seasons equivalent to a starter in the top-12. This seems like an obvious correlation—much like running backs—but one must be careful to note the career completion percentage for a player in a situation where he will likely have to attempt a lot of passes. Take a look at Jon Kitna. The Bengals version of Kitna, a team lacking solid receivers—Chad Johnson wasn’t even starting yet—had a relatively poor fantasy season with a not-so-coincidentally bad, 53.87% completion rate. In contrast, the Mike Martz-Motor City version of Kitna sporting a 62.42% rate, a team with Roy Williams playing to his potential, had nearly 1000 more passing yards and 9 additional scores.

So The Gut Check believes a higher passing percentage has a factor, but the question is how much? To find out, here is a list of the top 30, 16-game performances for completion percentage. Although the stats bureau’s minimum attempt figure is 225 (14 attempts per game), the Gut Check set his minimum to 300 (18 attempts per game), which is still quite low for the more prolific passing offenses in the modern era.

Pct.
Last First Year Team FFpts Pct Att Pass Yds Pass Tds INT
Anderson Ken 1982 Cin 205.25 70.55% 309 2495 12 9
Young Steve 1994 SF 409.75 70.28% 461 3969 35 10
Montana Joe 1989 SF 320.75 70.21% 386 3521 26 8
Griese Brian 2004 TB 213.3 69.35% 336 2632 20 12
Pennington Chad 2002 NYJ 260.9 69.17% 399 3120 22 6
Culpepper Daunte 2004 MIN 444.45 69.16% 548 4717 39 11
Aikman Troy 1993 DAL 227.5 69.13% 392 3100 15 6
Warner Kurt 2001 STL 391.5 68.68% 546 4830 36 22
Carr David 2006 HOU 213.65 68.33% 442 2767 11 12
Young Steve 1993 SF 369.85 67.97% 462 4023 29 16
Palmer Carson 2005 CIN 329.9 67.78% 509 3836 32 12
Warner Kurt 2000 STL 257.15 67.72% 347 3429 21 18
Young Steve 1996 SF 231.5 67.72% 316 2410 14 6
Young Steve 1997 SF 265.35 67.70% 356 3029 19 6
Gannon Rich 2002 OAK 372.05 67.64% 618 4689 26 10
Manning Peyton 2004 IND 427.65 67.61% 497 4557 49 10
Manning Peyton 2005 IND 303.85 67.33% 453 3747 28 10
Manning Peyton 2003 IND 331.95 66.96% 566 4267 29 10
Young Steve 1995 SF 283 66.89% 447 3200 20 9
Montana Joe 1987 SF 296.8 66.83% 398 3054 31 11
Griese Brian 2002 DEN 237.4 66.74% 436 3214 15 13
Young Steve 1992 SF 350.95 66.67% 402 3465 25 15
Green Trent 2004 KC 346.05 66.37% 556 4591 27 7
Manning Peyton 2002 IND 344.8 66.33% 591 4200 27 17
Bulger Marc 2004 STL 309.1 66.19% 485 3964 21 19
Gannon Rich 2001 OAK 334.5 65.76% 549 3828 27 14
Brees Drew 2004 SDG 286.45 65.50% 400 3159 27 9
Hasselbeck Matt 2005 SEA 287.15 65.48% 449 3455 24 7
Pennington Chad 2004 NYJ 216.25 65.41% 370 2673 16 9
Favre Brett 2003 GB 297.55 65.39% 471 3361 32 9
Aikman Troy 1991 Dal 188.2 65.29% 363 2754 11 21

Pct.—Although all-time accuracy figures don’t correlate with all-time fantasy points—only 6 all-time scorers appear on this accuracy list—there are 9 more QBs with at least 300 points. This means 50% of the list would be among the average top-7 fantasy signal callers during this decade and the top-5 QBs in the previous two decades. Another 5 QBs would be within the top-12 in this decade.

Clearly accuracy is an indicator of consistently good, season performances, however the most accurate fantasy QBs don’t match the performance of the most productive or the most prolific (attempts).

List FFpts Pct Att Yds Tds INT
Fpts 393 62% 543.1 4304.1 33.5 15.3
Att 327 60% 605.8 4199.9 25.5 18.7
% 302 67% 447.1 3550.2 24.7 11.4

There’s no coincidence the most accurate performers of all time come from quarterbacks in west coast offenses—18 out of 30 QBs on the list started for a WCO. But 9 of the 15 300+ fantasy-point scorers play in vertical offenses. This doesn’t mean one should ignore QBs on west coast offenses, but considering the offensive system is important. One shouldn’t project Matt Hasselbeck as a top-five QB unless he suddenly acquires an elite receiver on the level of Terrell Owens or Anquan Boldin in a trade to pair with Deion Branch. Hasselbeck may be a solid starter, but historically his offense limits him from becoming an elite performer unless he has great receiving talent surrounding him. Montana and Young had the great Jerry Rice as well as John Taylor and Terrell Owens providing a vertical threat. Brett Favre had good receivers, but like John Elway, Favre had a knack for throwing the deep ball among the best in history and whether or not you like to make fun of John Madden, the Packer’s QB will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. It is even more apparent when one combines passers in vertical offenses with a high completion percentage, the fantasy points come easily: Marino, Manning, Cunningham and Culpepper in Minny, and Warner all fit this profile.

So far it’s clear the best fantasy performers at this position have a high attempt rate (nearly 30 per game) and a solid, if not spectacular completion percentage (at least 58%). These players are generally in productive offenses that employ a vertical attack with at least one elite receiver in the fold that can stretch the field. Passing yards are obviously an integral part of fantasy production for QBs, but how does this fit into the equation? The Gut Check will exam the top-30 performers in this category and whether they show up on the other lists covered thus far.

Passing Yardage
Last First Year Team FFpts Pct Att Pass Yds Pass Tds INT
Marino Dan 1984 Mia 445.5 64.18% 564 5084 48 17
Warner Kurt 2001 STL 391.5 68.68% 546 4830 36 22
Fouts Dan 1981 SD 377.7 59.11% 609 4802 33 17
Marino Dan 1986 MIA 413 60.67% 623 4746 44 23
Culpepper Daunte 2004 MIN 444.5 69.16% 548 4717 39 11
Fouts Dan 1980 SD 369.3 59.08% 589 4715 30 24
Moon Warren 1991 HOU 345.3 61.68% 655 4690 23 21
Moon Warren 1990 HOU 400 61.99% 584 4689 33 13
Gannon Rich 2002 OAK 372.1 67.64% 618 4689 26 10
Lomax Neil 1984 STL 379.1 61.61% 560 4614 28 16
Green Trent 2004 KC 346.1 66.37% 556 4591 27 17
Manning Peyton 2004 IND 427.7 67.61% 497 4557 49 10
Bledsoe Drew 1994 NE 331.8 57.89% 691 4555 25 27
Dickey Lynn 1983 GB 370.1 59.71% 484 4458 32 29
Marino Dan 1994 MIA 348.1 62.60% 615 4453 30 17
Beuerlein Steve 1999 CAR 390.2 60.07% 571 4436 36 15
Marino Dan 1988 MIA 332 58.42% 606 4434 28 23
Brees Drew 2006 NO 328.1 64.26% 554 4418 26 11
Favre Brett 1995 GB 408.8 62.98% 570 4413 38 13
Manning Peyton 2000 IND 370.3 62.52% 571 4413 33 15
Manning Peyton 2006 IND 371.5 64.99% 557 4397 31 9
Brunell Mark 1996 JAC 352 63.38% 557 4367 19 20
Bledsoe Drew 2002 BUF 332.7 61.48% 610 4359 24 15
Warner Kurt 1999 STL 396.9 65.13% 499 4353 41 13
Kenney Bill 1983 KC 337.3 57.38% 603 4348 24 18
Mitchell Scott 1995 DET 379.3 59.35% 583 4338 32 12
Majkowski Don 1989 GB 389.7 58.93% 599 4318 27 20
Everett Jim 1989 STL 340.6 58.69% 518 4310 29 17
Bulger Marc 2006 STL 315.5 62.93% 588 4301 24 8
Garcia Jeff 2000 SF 403.3 63.28% 561 4278 31 10

Passing Yardage—It is no surprise many of the best yardage QBs have enough fantasy points to be a top-5 signal caller this decade. Only Marc Bulger’s effort from last season was less than a 325-point effort, and not by much.

Also as expected, high yardage producers have a very high rate of passing attempts. However, there seems to be something that separates the yardage list from the attempts list in terms of touchdowns.

List FFpts Pct Att Yds Tds INT
Fpts 393 62% 543.1 4304.1 33.5 15.3
Att 327 60% 605.8 4199.9 25.5 18.7
% 302 67% 447.1 3550.2 24.7 11.4
Yds 374 62% 576.2 4522.4 31.5 16.4

The offensive system of many of the attempts leaders could be a factor. Twelve of the seasons on this list belong to QBs that performed in west coast offenses or run and shoot offenses. Still there aren’t enough seasons to indicate offensive system is the issue. In fact, it’s more likely attributable to signal callers who have high attempts but poor production due to offenses that have to play from behind and lack the type of firepower to score on long pass plays.

It appears yardage and touchdowns remain the primary stats that fantasy owners need to consider. What yardage figure is considered a quality season for a signal caller? Three thousand yards used to be a good figure—4000 yards was unheard of prior to 1980 and still extremely rare in that decade. This is why Dan Marino’s 5084-yard effort stands out as one of the great records in sports. The fact Marino has five seasons with at least 4400 yards is an astounding feat. Peyton Manning’s three seasons of 4000 yards passing isn’t too shabby for a signal caller entering his 10th year. But how common is 4000 yards since 1978? There have been 60, 4000-yard passing seasons. Here’s how they break down by year.



There was an upward trend in the mid-nineties but it appears the amount of 4000-yard passers ebbs and flows nearly every year. One can reasonably predict a downturn in 2007 just from the history seen here. The Gut Check would say Peyton Manning would be the only near-lock for 4000 yards in 2007. The second candidate would be among Brady, Kitna, or Brees. Predictions aside, what this table shows is 4000-yards isn’t like the 1300-yard benchmark for a runner.

The more likely figure is 3500 yards. Since the NFL used a 16-game season, there have been a steady number of 3500-yard passers and has remained more consistently in the 7-10 range in this decade. It’s clear 67%-80% of the fantasy starters—depending on the size of one’s league—will hit this 3500-yard mark.



How have attempts changed during this span of time? One would expect this number to appear similar to the yardage figure and in fact, the number has increased and stabilized during the decade.



Although there have been as many as 14 QBs with 480 attempts, that’s still less than half the starters in the NFL. This is truly a good number to expect from a starter in 10 or 12-team leagues. 480 attempts averages to 30 attempts per game for a quarterback, which coupled with 3500 yards, are a good low-end numbers to project for the 8th or 9th-ranked QB in one’s rankings. This should keep one’s projections realistic or allow one to view another’s projections with a more objective, critical eye.

The last major passing stat to review is touchdowns. The Gut Check will compare the all-time leaders in this category with the previous leaders in the other stat lines to reveal the more realistic high end numbers for each of these performance components in a quarterback’s game.

Passing TDs
Last First Year Team FFpts Pct Att Pass Yds Pass Tds INT
Manning Peyton 2004 Ind 427.7 67.61% 497 4557 49 10
Marino Dan 1984 Mia 445.5 64.18% 564 5084 48 17
Marino Dan 1986 Mia 413 60.67% 623 4746 44 23
Warner Kurt 1999 Stl 396.9 65.13% 499 4353 41 13
Favre Brett 1996 GB 376.6 59.85% 543 3899 39 13
Culpepper Daunte 2004 Min 444.5 69.16% 548 4717 39 11
Favre Brett 1995 GB 408.8 62.98% 570 4413 38 13
Young Steve 1998 SF 433.9 62.28% 517 4170 36 12
Warner Kurt 2001 STL 391.5 68.68% 546 4830 36 22
Beuerlein Steve 1999 Car 390.2 60.07% 571 4436 36 15
Young Steve 1994 SF 409.8 70.28% 461 3969 35 10
Favre Brett 1997 GB 358.1 59.26% 513 3867 35 16
Cunningham Randall 1998 Min 340.4 60.94% 425 3704 34 10
Moon Warren 1995 Min 351.6 62.21% 606 4228 33 14
Fouts Dan 1981 SD 377.7 59.11% 609 4802 33 17
Moon Warren 1990 Hou 400 61.99% 584 4689 33 13
Kelly Jim 1991 Buf 334.7 64.14% 474 3844 33 17
Culpepper Daunte 2000 Min 417.9 62.66% 474 3937 33 16
Testaverde Vinny 1996 Balt 371.7 59.20% 549 4177 33 19
Favre Brett 1994 GB 358.3 62.37% 582 3882 33 14
Manning Peyton 2000 Ind 370.3 62.52% 571 4413 33 15
Dickey Lynn 1983 GB 370.1 59.71% 484 4458 32 29
Favre Brett 2003 GB 297.6 65.39% 471 3361 32 21
Garcia Jeff 2001 SF 360.3 62.70% 504 3538 32 12
Mitchell Scott 1995 Det 379.3 59.35% 583 4338 32 12
Krieg Dave 1984 Sea 348.2 57.50% 480 3671 32 24
Favre Brett 2001 GB 335.7 61.57% 510 3921 32 15
Palmer Carson 2005 Cin 329.9 67.78% 509 3836 32 12
McNabb Donovan 2004 Phi 357.8 63.97% 469 3875 31 8
Manning Peyton 2006 Ind 371.5 64.99% 557 4397 31 9
Everett Jim 1988 Stl 332.6 59.57% 517 3964 31 18
Bartkowski Steve 1980 Atl 316.7 55.51% 463 3544 31 16
Montana Joe 1987 SF 296.8 66.83% 398 3054 31 13
Favre Brett 1998 GB 353.9 62.98% 551 4212 31 23
Garcia Jeff 2000 SF 403.3 63.28% 561 4278 31 10

Passing TDs—Right away, it is apparent the 3500-yard mark has a strong link to a high rate of touchdowns. Only two quarterbacks—Montana and Favre—had seasons where they scored more than 30 touchdowns but threw for less than 3500 yards. This is an incredibly high rate and solidifies the 3500-yard benchmark as a threshold for high performance.



And not so coincidentally, these two seasons from Favre and Montana were also the lowest fantasy-point totals for any of the quarterbacks on this list and also the only sub-300-point performances. If a fantasy owner expects a quarterback to near the 30-td mark or score over 300 fantasy points, he better believe that QB will throw for at least 3500 yards. In fact, it’s a safe bet a 25-td, season—a more common possibility—will be accompanied by a 3500-yard performance.

List FFpts Pct Att Yds Tds INT
Fpts 393 62% 543.1 4304.1 33.5 15.3
Att 327 60% 605.8 4199.9 25.5 18.7
% 302 67% 447.1 3550.2 24.7 11.4
Yds 373.6 62% 576.2 4522.4 31.53 16.43
TDs 373.5 63% 525.2 4147.5 34.71 15.2

What’s striking about the comparison among all five stat lists is the fact the best touchdown performers had significantly higher fantasy performances than the attempts leaders but average fewer attempts than all save the completion percentage leaders. Actually, the scoring leaders are statistically among the most efficient quarterbacks across the board in each category. When projecting a quarterback’s performance, consider his recent completion percentage, attempts, and yardage with the offense he’s playing. If there are not significant changes with his personnel, or the personnel lacks statistical signs of improvement from the year before, be careful with the optimism with projections.

Rushing Performances
Although far fewer quarterbacks make a significant impact as runners, there are a number of high profile examples otherwise. Since 1978, there are only 25 seasons where a quarterback averaged at least 5 attempts per game and the most were Mike Vick’s 7.68 per game last year, and the Falcons’ QB is the only 1000-yard rusher at the position in this era. The number of QBs with at least 400 yards rushing in a season has remained the same with only a slight spike in recent years.


It’s easy to see that the “era of the running QB” came and left rather quickly. This is good evidence that the expected trend of running quarterbacks never really came to fruition. The all-time leaders in this era at the QB position for rushing yardage demonstrate there truly aren’t many prolific running quarterbacks.

Top 30 Rushing Performances
Last First Year Team FFpts Rush Att Rush Yds Rush TDs
Vick Michael 2006 Atl 319.6 123 1039 2
Cunningham Randall 1990 Phi 417.5 118 942 5
Vick Michael 2004 Atl 279.9 120 902 3
Vick Michael 2002 Atl 336.5 113 777 8
McNair Steve 1997 Ten 304.7 101 674 8
McNabb Donovan 2000 Phi 351.2 86 629 6
Cunningham Randall 1988 Phi 384.8 93 624 6
Cunningham Randall 1989 Phi 340.1 104 621 4
Culpepper Daunte 2002 Min 385.3 105 603 10
Vick Michael 2005 Atl 276.3 102 597 6
McNair Steve 1998 Ten 302.2 76 568 4
Young Vince 2006 Ten 255.2 83 552 7
Cunningham Randall 1992 Phi 299.7 87 549 5
Cunningham Randall 1986 Phi 185.6 66 540 5
Grogan Steve 1978 NE 285.1 81 539 5
Stewart Kordell 2001 Pit 295.2 96 537 5
Young Steve 1992 SF 351 76 537 4
Gannon Rich 2000 Rai 360.4 89 529 4
Cunningham Randall 1987 Phi 299.8 76 505 3
McNabb Donovan 2001 Phi 321.9 82 482 2
Brunell Mark 1995 Jax 240.4 67 480 4
Stoudt Cliff 1983 Pit 247.6 77 479 4
Stewart Kordell 1997 Pit 348.6 88 476 11
Rosenbach Timm 1990 Crd 283.9 86 470 3
Culpepper Daunte 2000 Min 417.9 90 470 7
Flutie Doug 1999 Buf 287.3 88 467 1
McNabb Donovan 2002 Phi 264.5 63 460 6
Young Steve 1998 SF 433.9 70 454 6
Pagel Mike 1983 Ind 209.8 54 441 0
McNair Steve 2002 Ten 319.4 82 440 3

The top 30 rushing seasons since 1978 belong to a grand total of 14 quarterbacks. Mike Vick owns four of the top 10. Randall Cunningham appears a whopping 6 times—he owns 20% of this list! Steve McNair has three appearances. McNabb, Culpepper, Young, and Stewart each have two. So these 7 QBS are responsible for 19 of these rushing efforts—a clear example as to why the “running quarterback” trend is a myth.

The next possible running QB might be Vince Young. While he already posted the 11th-best rushing total in this era, he was a rookie and his numbers could dwindle as he becomes a more efficient passer. Of course, Steve Young was already an excellent passer by 1998 when he amassed 454 yards and 6 scores, so its possible VY could continue to thrive on the ground. His abilities remind the Gut Check as a combination of Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair, and Donovan McNabb.

Only 9 of these QBs amassed at least 325 fantasy points and only 16 of the 30 exceeded the 300-point barrier. In fact, only 4 quarterbacks on this list exceeded 100 fantasy points on the ground—Vick (3 times), Cunningham, McNair, and Stewart.

It’s a clear indication one should not project more than 400 yards rushing from a quarterback unless he has proven to be this prolific as recently as the year before. Vick and Young are the only two current quarterbacks who fit this description.

On other thing that is apparent from this list is that more attempts don’t necessarily equate to more touchdowns for quarterbacks. Here’s a list of the highest touchdown-scoring QBs on the ground. The Gut Check only listed 12 seasons because these are the only QBs with at least 7 rushing scores.

The range of attempts span from 41 to 113 and 30% of the seasons have 60 carries or less. Interestingly enough for all of Vick’s seasons of high yardage totals on the ground, he’s only exceeded the 6-touchdown barrier once. Steve McNair, Kordell Stewart, and Dante Culpepper have done it twice. Only 6 of the 12 quarterbacks on this list attained 300-point seasons. So do you want a strong fantasy quarterback or a quarterback that scores a lot of rushing touchdowns? If you want both, flip a coin. Still that’s not a bad gamble from a projection standpoint when one is considering a player such as Vince Young—a developing signal caller who will only get better as a passer and is still healthy enough to do damage with his legs. McNair and Culpepper are still in the league, but neither is likely to return to their days of toting the rock into the end zone with great regularity.

Most Rushing TDs
Last First Year Team FFpts Rush Att Rush Yds Rush TDs
Stewart Kordell 1997 Pit 348.6 476 88 11
Culpepper Daunte 2002 Min 385.3 603 105 10
Vick Michael 2002 Atl 336.5 777 113 8
Evans Vince 1980 Chi 224.6 306 60 8
McNair Steve 1997 Ten 304.7 674 101 8
McNair Steve 1999 Ten 238.7 337 72 8
Garcia Jeff 2003 SF 281.1 319 56 7
Hipple Eric 1981 Det 232.7 168 41 7
Culpepper Daunte 2000 Min 417.9 470 90 7
Young Vince 2006 Ten 255.2 552 83 7
Young Steve 1994 SF 409.8 293 58 7
Stewart Kordell 2000 Pit 222.6 436 78 7

All this data should help one understand some basic points about projecting fantasy performance for quarterbacks:

  1. If one is going to project a high number of passing touchdowns, then passing yardage, attempts, and percentage need to be high.
  2. Passing attempts don’t necessarily dictate high fantasy performances because these quarterbacks are often gaining points in garbage time.
  3. The best of the best running quarterbacks rarely account for even 30% of their fantasy points from rushing totals.
  4. Any projected total over 300 points is likely to place a quarterback in the top 7-8 of his position for the year in question.
  5. 3500 passing yards is a benchmark performance for a quality starting quarterback.
  6. A high completion rate is often as likely to belong to a highly productive fantasy quarterback (Steve Young) and a signal caller that completes a lot of short passes for an ineffective offense (David Carr).
  7. The high end of attempts per game (starter worthy numbers) is 30, or 480 attempts for the season.

If one considers these points and the analysis from this article when considering projections, he will have a better chance of separating likelihood from hype.