The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 115
Mid-Season Musings
11/15/07

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

• My Top Five RBs By Crank Score Projection: In order, my top five backs were Tomlinson, Gore, Westbrook, Addai, and Bush. So far, the top five backs by crank score in a 2 RB offense with a minimum of 4 games played are Westbrook, Brown, Addai, Bush, and Tomlinson. Although my order wasn’t exact, hitting 4 out of the 5 isn’t bad at all. Too bad my first pick in several leagues was Frank Gore…
  
  
• That LJ and Steven Jackson Would Not Play the Entire Season: If you followed the Crank Score and had a top five pick, you at least averted disaster by avoiding these two wear-and-tear risks. Jackson could have a nice stretch run, but the fact he already has disc issues in his back is not a good sign.
  
  
• 7 out of 12 QBs in My Top 12 are True to Projected: I ranked Favre too low (16th); missed my chance to try out for Mind Freak (didn’t rank Derek Anderson); disrespected Matt Hasselbeck (15th); picked the wrong Cardinal QB; and had McNabb (understandable) and Pennington (not so understandable) projected as capable and consistent starters. Overall, not bad—especially with that Steeler QB….
  
  
• Ben Roethlisberger Would Have a Strong Season: Only Tom Brady has more elite games (55%) than Roethlisberger (33%). Big Ben also has three games with at least 4 touchdowns.
  
  
• Players I Told You to Acquire When People Where Leaping Off The Bandwagon: Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Larry Fitzgerald were four of the five players I told you at the end of September to remain patient with their play despite most folks panicking.
  
  
• “I’d take Dwayne Bowe as my second receiver off the board in a rookie draft. In fact, I already have.” On Monday I already shared my take on Selvin Young as early as May, Edwards already played pretty well for a rookie, and Jon Beck is about to get his chance. So it makes sense to mention Bowe.
  

• My Wide Receiver Crank Score Projections: I only projected 5 of the top 12 receivers correctly at this point and though my top 36 is a much higher number, accurately predicting the elite players is what makes a big difference. I’m failing in this category thus far in 2007.
  
  
• Frank Gore: I’m not wrong about his skills, but I couldn’t have been worse with my prediction that Alex Smith would take the next step because of the offensive line and Darrell Jackson. Smith, the Niners line, and Jackson have been horrible and Gore has produced at about half the rate of his potential.
  
  
• Daunte Culpepper’s great season in Oakland…Lasted for one week versus Miami and he was more like a fullback than a quarterback. I still think Culpepper has a chance to be a decent player in the league again, but he may have a stay or two elsewhere before he finds the right situation.
  
  
• Did I say trade Adrian Peterson in late September? If you did it, I’d like to say I’m not sure whether to apologize (due to his games against the Bears and Chargers) or tell you to be happy you got a player that is still healthy. Honestly, I think it’s better to apologize—296 yards and 3 scores is just a bit too difficult to get over…

Kinda-Sorta

• Braylon Edwards: Sure, I had him as a Second Half Wonder and said that going strictly by the numbers he was the clear breakout receiver in 2007. But I downplayed him due to QB play (pre-Derek Anderson). The other Second Half Wonders were Santonio Holmes, Ronald Curry, Mark Clayton, D.J. Hackett, and Matt Jones. Holmes, Clayton, and Edwards were the three most obvious guys. Two out of the three are working out as predicted. Unfortunately, I thought Clayton would be the best of the bunch.
  
  
• Vince Young Immune To The Madden Curse: He missed time, but not the entire season. Of course, at the rate he’s gaining points, most fantasy owners treat Young as if he were out for the year. I think Young is pressing to be a pocket quarterback too often. I know that opposing defenses say they can contain him with the “mush rush,” the film demonstrates that Young is passing up options to break the pocket when there are clear opportunities to run. If he ran more, he’d open up more passing lanes—unlike Michael Vick, who couldn’t elude opposing defenders in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield at the same time. For now, we can say Young fits the Madden Curse for Titans; like Eddie George, he made it through the season but didn’t produce at the expected level.

From The Mail Bag…

I just wanted you to know that I am not going to be able to sleep tonight thanks to you:

Nagging feelings about player movement: Marion Barber will be a Bear or Seahawk. It would be awe-inspiring to see McNabb and Barber sign with the Bears, but I doubt Chicago could land both players. The Bears need Barber more, but Seattle would be the best fit for his skills. If Barber becomes a Seahawk and that team stays relatively intact, Barber could make Seattle a co-favorite in the NFC in 2008. Personally, Dallas would be nuts to get rid of Barber over Julius Jones. Romo may be the main event in Dallas, but Barber is the guts of that team.

I am from the Seattle area and a die-hard Seahawks fan. I also drafted Barber three years ago in my dynasty league, and his development has led him to become my favorite non-Seahawk in the league. So much so that I have become a closet Cowboys fan even though that is against every fiber of my being. Seriously, wetting my pants just thinking about the possibility of him in Blue and Green….

Mike Olson
Puyallup,WA

Mike, thanks for your e-mail. Just know that the chances the Cowboys are this stupid to let Barber go instead of Jones are about as great as Ricky Williams or Priest Holmes having a last hurrah down the stretch of this season…okay, maybe not as great.

The Gut Check’s Mid-Year, League Report Card

My auction league performances have been disappointing, although I still have a shot, albeit slim, to contend in two of them. I simply hitched my wagon to two disappointing players and stuck with them a bit too long. On the other hand, my dynasty league moves in the past 2-3 years are paying dividends. This has not been anywhere close to my best year, but I have some teams getting hot—just not sure if it’s too late.