Second Half Fantasy QB & RB Splits
The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.
Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!
Proficiency 2005 (Minimum of 8 Games)
||Touch to Td
Auctioneer Experts Invitational: So far, the Gut Check is
3-0 after big days from his four Ravens starters and consistent
production from everyone else. Cadillac is on bye for week four,
so the running back situation is yours truly’s main concern.
Fred Taylor seemed like the obvious choice until Maurice Jones-Drew
had his huge day against Indy. The Gut Check has the rookie as
Taylor’s handcuff, but now he has to stay abreast of how
the Jaguars will approach their RB workload in week four. The
other question mark is quarterback. Steve McNair finally made
some strides last week, but he faces the top ranked passing defense
of the Chargers. David Carr is the possible alternative, and he
has looked pretty solid. The Gut Check may stick with McNair,
because San Diego has faced Tennessee and Oakland, which indicates
the Chargers’ pass defense may be good, but not as good
as their stats indicate.
Projected Starting Lineup: McNair,
Jackson, Taylor, Reggie Brown, Donald Driver, Horn, Heap, Stover,
and the Ravens Defense.
3 Dynasty League (40-man rosters with IDP): Yours truly (team
name Out To Lunch) is 2-1 after Brian Westbrook led his team to
victory this weekend. The Gut Check made some updates to his secondary
last week with the addition of Walt Harris, Glenn Earl, and Charles
Woodson. He’ll be without a second back (Cadillac, Pittman,
and Jacobs on bye) unless Wali Lundy or Musa Smith somehow gets
thrust into the lineup. Could be a long weekend…
Projected Starting Lineup: Leftwich,
Westbrook, Berrian, Fitzgerald, M. Jones, Gabriel, McMichael,
Lindell (if Viniatieri isn’t ready), Rod Coleman, Kyle Vanden
Bosch, James Hall, Derrick Johnson, Channing Crowder, Mike Vrabel,
Julian Peterson, Walt Harris, Charles Woodson, Glenn Earl, and
Fantasy Auction League: The Gut Check rebounded from his high-scoring,
heartbreaking .75 point, loss with an 18-point victory with consistent
play from all but his #2 RB (which was a given considering it
was Michael Pittman subbing for Ladainian Tomlinson’s bye
week). The FFToday.com team is 2-1, but the rumors of Kurt Warner
getting benched could be a big blow to this squad. Fortunately,
the Gut Check added Chad Pennington two weeks ago. Hopefully,
he’ll be able to add Charlie Frye to his squad for depth.
With the Bucs, Toomer, Clayton, and Cadillac on bye, the Gut Check
will have to pick up a defense and go with Marty Booker against
the Texans and Maurice Drew. He could opt for Doug Gabriel against
Cincy or an all-Chargers backfield with Michael Turner. Gabriel
may be the more viable option than Booker (if health is still
an issue), but the Gut Check will have to stay posted on the development
of Drew’s role before he pulls the trigger on the rookie
over an all-Chargers bye-week backfield. After this week, only
weeks 6 and 9 will present troublesome bye week decisions. If
the Gut Check can win one of these three match ups, he should
Projected Starting Lineup: Warner
(if he starts; Pennington if not); LT, Jones-Drew; Driver; Booker,
Wayne; Watson; Akers; free agent pick up on defense.
MADFAD (Dynasty Contract League w/IDP and
Fluctuating Player Values): This is played on CBS, so the
Gut Check can’t provide a link. His team is 2-1 despite
Frank Gore’s poor outing and Donté Stallworth’s
last-moment lineup scratch. This was the second team of the Gut
Check’s that used Brian Westbrook to carry him to victory.
This league goes off the power point system determined by head-to-head
record, total points, and breakdown record. The Gut Check was
8th out of 10th in week one; 5th out of 10th in week two; and
likely holding steady this week.
Projected Starting Lineup: Leftwich,
Westbrook, Gore (or Dillon, Drew, or Maroney), C. Johnson, Stallworth,
R. Moss, Shockey, Bulluck, Vilma, Feeley, Vanden Bosch, Umenyiora,
Polamalu, and A. Wilson.
Local League (Traditional re-draft and
scoring): Another CBS league, the Gut Check is 1-2 after
poor lineup decisions at QB, RB, and WR. With LJ coming off a
bye week, yours truly will have a fully loaded squad. His QB decision
might be made for him (Favre) if Warner gets benched for Leinart
this weekend. No problem, the Gut Check likes his chances if Favre
and the Packers keep improving each week.
Projected Lineup: Favre, LJ,
Bush, Chris Henry, Marvin Harrison, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston,
Todd Heap, Stover, and Ravens defense.
FFTOC: Not sure as of this time…yours
truly is winging it a bit more this year.
Fantasy Football Handbook Expert Mock:
Another sub-par effort of 92 points, which isn’t the worst
of the bunch but will likely keep the Gut Check in the 8th position
out of 12 teams.
Projected Lineup: McNabb, Dillon,
Green, Fitzgerald, Houshmandzadeh, Witten, Rackers, and Colts