The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 85
Deep Fried Turkeys Fantasy Style
11/24/06

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

Fried turkey is a Louisiana concept that spread throughout the South and is gaining greater popularity around the country. The Gut Check has been frying his turkeys for several years and the only drawback is the fact you can’t stuff it. There are some very real similarities for fantasy-fried turkeys—players that can’t seem to stay out of trouble and pose a high risk of frying your dynasty league roster: The meat is juicy and once in the fryer, it cooks fast. The best think you can do is to serve that turkey to someone else. Yours truly was able to parlay Onterrio The Original Whizzenator Smith into deal that eventually landed him Cadillac Williams. Although the 2006 returns haven’t been great, the Bucs back is a far better option than the former Viking.

So Happy Thanksgiving, and here’s a list of Turkeys that could wind up in the Fantasy Fryer this off-season—he hopes none of these players have further issues, but buyer beware.

J.P. Losman: When a player with the positive reputation of Mewelde Moore goes out of his way to bash a former college teammate despite the fact they player in different conferences, that act speaks volumes to the things said about the Bills’ starter. Many draft analysts labeled Losman a coach-killer for his refusal to play disciplined, consistent football. From a physical talent standpoint, it’s all there but his reputation for repulsing teammates is strong for a player with only a few years in the league. The Gut Check liked what he saw of Losman before Moore confirmed many of the whispers about Losman’s character. Be careful of this potential bargain that could turn out to be a headache.

Antonio Bryant: Heading this list is a talented receiver on an ascending offense that can’t seem to stay out of trouble. Bryant was seen as a first round talent at Pittsburgh, but his lack of maturity deflated his draft stock. The Cowboys—in what has turned out to be typical of Jerry Jones—took a chance on this irascible receiver until Bill Parcells effectively kicked Bryant off the squad after a few promising, but tumultuous seasons in Dallas.

Bryant found his way to Cleveland and immediately put his on-field talent on display. But after a solid year, Romeo Crennell—a descendant of the Bill Parcells school of coaching—sent the 1000-yard receiver packing to San Francisco despite the fact that Charlie Frye could have had one of the best young receiving corps in the NFL if Bryant remained a Brown. Cleveland’s coach was still sorting through players with whom he wished to build a foundation—Bryant and his history of coach-killing immaturity was not desirable.

This summer there were stories that Bryant changed his ways. He sought out 49ers quarterback, Alex Smith and they worked on their rapport during the off-season. There seemed to be great promise for Bryant—and he did have a decent start to the season—but the receiver’s high-strung behavior appeared once again. This prompted veteran back up, and former Browns starter, Trent Dilfer to lecture the young receiver on the sideline during that game. Since his berating of Smith in late September, Bryant has been a relative disappointment—not coming close to the 100-yard mark he broke in his first two outings.

Since Mike Nolan and the rest of the team did a good job keeping the turkey moments in check after Bryant’s first outburst it’s almost sadly predictable the issues would find their way to private life:

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Antonio Bryant was arrested on reckless and drunken driving charges after his Lamborghini was seen speeding faster than 100 mph on a freeway. Bryant, 25, was arrested Sunday night on suspicion of misdemeanor charges of reckless driving, driving under the influence and resisting arrest, police Capt. Kevin Raffaelli said. Bryant was booked into the San Mateo County jail early Monday morning and released a few hours later on his own recognizance. He is scheduled to appear in court Dec. 28, according to San Mateo County sheriff's Lt. Lisa Williams. (AP)

If you are a 49ers fan or dynasty owner with Bryant on your roster, repeat after me: “new starting receiver,” “draft pick,” and “free agent.” You’ll likely be hearing these three phrases in conjunction with the 49ers depth chart this spring. Although one can’t conclude Bryant has similar issues as Koren Robinson’s 2005 season, it’s worth considering the 49er with the same dose of caution.

Santonio Holmes: If you look at the fact that yours truly is a big-time fan of Holmes’ potential then you know to proceed with caution. That’s Mike MacGregor’s take based on the list The Gut Check has compiled of players he’s chosen that had great talent but couldn’t stay out of trouble: Jeff George, Cecil Collins, the aforementioned Smith, Michael Westbrook, Randy Moss, and David Boston are just some of the head cases he’s valued over the years. Holmes has great potential to be a star or a headliner on this unflattering list. Yours truly thinks stardom, but MacGregor (who is 10-1 in our dynasty league a 40-point favorite versus the Gut Check’s lowly squad) sees the two arrests prior to training camp and thinks no-go. In case you missed it, Holmes was charged with misdemeanor domestic assault for allegedly choking the mother of one of his three kids and later charged with disorderly conduct for arguing with a cop in Miami Beach (this charge was dropped). He might escape the fryer, but you can understand why MacGregor can smell the Peanut Oil heating up.

Chris Henry: Especially when you consider the Bengals’ receiver. If the second year player could have stayed out of the news between last December and this October you might be looking at one of the better starting receivers in the league. As the Gut Check has detailed all season long, Henry is the receiver that sparks this Bengal offense. He creates match up problems for Chad Johnson and helps T.J. Houshmandzadeh run free. But Henry is dangerously close to being anything but free if he doesn’t fix his life away from the lines. Don’t get too enamored with the West Virginia product, because one more false step and his fast-rising career might come to a screeching halt.

Cedric Benson: Benson hasn’t had any legal issues as an NFL player, but he’s been slow to endear himself to his teammates with an attitude that split the locker room this summer. His maturity came into question upon being drafted in 2005. His stock plummeted and once picked, his live post-draft interview showed a young man that was personally hurt by the impersonal business of the NFL. He felt wronged and took route to express his feelings in a manner made him out to seem immature and out of touch with the reality of his business. A major talent, Benson was seen as a can’t-miss draft pick. Entering year three, the Bears second string runner will need to win the job outright over Thomas Jones to prove he’s not the next coming of Enis or Salaam. The Gut Check doesn’t like the Benson vibe…

Reggie Williams: Notice the preponderance of receivers on this list? The Gut Check hasn’t been a big fan of Williams for his on-field antics. While at work, make it a point to run up and down your workplace and give a celebratory scream and hang shake after doing some basic task. Then we could all pretend to be Reggie Williams when he does the expected task of catching a football. Where else can you get paid millions to act like you’ve saved the world when all you did was the bare minimum? Unbelievable. True, Williams had some excellent moments earlier in the year—in fact, yours truly thought he was turning around his game. But recently Williams had to be separated from fans after the Jags’ own supporters actually goaded the receiver into a potential altercation in the stands. Brains.

Marcus Vick: Vick has supposedly fixed his act, but it’s too early to take it seriously. This kid royally screwed up his opportunity to be a first day pick—just ask Elvis Dumervil. His environment doesn’t look too promising either for someone lacking maturity: High profile older brother that overshadows him; borderline career with enough money to get into trouble but not enough to get out; and a history that will have others goading him like the prisoners in Shawshank Redemption chanting “Fresh Fish…”

Larry Johnson: How the Gut Check hates to even consider LJ for this list, but the past issues with alleged violence towards women and the somewhat truculent relationship with the media are hard to ignore. Johnson seems a lot more comfortable with Dick Vermeil out of Kansas City, but it might be a good idea to take a wait and see approach when it comes to how he handles his success during the 2007 off-season. Yours truly isn’t too worried but based on last year he wouldn’t be too surprised if LJ’s name surfaced on the police blotter. Not because LJ is necessarily a bad guy, but the higher profile and the past issues make him even more of a target.

Eli Manning: This is total speculation and a conspiracy-motivated pick. Manning set himself up for failure the moment he refused to be a San Diego Charger. Now he’s facing criticism in the vicious, New York media after Philip Rivers continues to show up the younger Manning. The Giants starter is playing poor football and faces not only the pressure of the Gotham press, but also the shadow of his MVP-caliber brother. Eli Manning has been known to be a very laid back guy, but even he will need to blow off some steam. Don’t be surprised if Eli bucks the media perception of a Manning, and has a wild child moment that gets blown up big time and creates further questions about his capacity to be the Giants franchise.

Week 11 League Updates

Fantasy Auctioneer Experts Invitational: The Gut Check is on a three-game streak and created a two-game lead in his division after beating the second place squad. Currently 8-3, yours truly feels like he has a solid team from top to bottom and good depth at running back and receiver. If he can win one of the next two games, he’ll have a playoff bye week and a chance to earn his second championship in as many years in this league. With McNabb out for the season, Santonio Holmes or Mark Clayton are looking like attractive alternatives to Reggie Brown—at least until the Gut Check gets a better handle on the Eagles QB situation.

Projected Starting Lineup: McNair, Jackson, Taylor, Reggie Brown/Holmes/Mark Clayton, Donald Driver, Joe Horn Todd Heap, Josh Scobee, and the Ravens Defense.

Ironman 3 Dynasty League Yours truly is on a 3-game skid, and faces Mike MacGregor’s 10-1 team. Another loss could place yours truly in the top three picks for the 2007 rookie draft. A backwards honor at this point. Still, the team has a lot of unfulfilled promise. The problem is for three years straight, the squad starts great, experiences injuries, and then fades down the stretch. Mike won’t be merciful.

Projected Starting Lineup: McNair, Cadillac, Westbrook, Samie Parker, Fitzgerald, Matt Jones, McMichael, Vinatieri, Darnell Dockett, Kenard Lang, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Channing Crowder, Michael Boley, Julian Peterson, Mike Vrabel, Walt Harris, Charles Woodson, Sean Jones, and Glenn Earl.

SOFA Fantasy Auction League: LT has been the impetus for a 7-game winning streak. Both the Gut Check and Rotoworld hold a league-best mark of 9-2. But yours truly faces The Huddle in a match up that could determine the division. Despite saying Josh Scobee was a keeper, yours truly made the mistake of dropping him for Wilkins. Although it didn’t cost him the game, he got a goose egg from Wilkins. Those 14-points from Scobee could have helped in with a potential tiebreaker situation if he doesn’t win this weekend and the division has to be decided in such a manner.

Projected Starting Lineup: Pennington, LT, Maurice-Jones Drew, Driver, Holmes, Wayne, Watson, Scobee/Wilkins (depending on waivers), and the Seahawk/free agent defense.

MADFAD (Dynasty Contract League w/IDP and Fluctuating Player Values): The Gut Check has jumped from 9th to 4th in two weeks—thanks to Chad Johnson and Frank Gore. Now 5-6, yours truly is suddenly in the hunt after knocking the top team off its perch. The Gut Check redid his financials and added Zach Thomas and Charles Grant to the roster in order to bolster his defense. Yours truly will likely stick with the same lineup, although B. Gradkowski outshined McNair in week 11.

Projected Starting Lineup: McNair, Gore, Westbrook, C. Johnson, Galloway, Stallworth, Shockey, Bullock, Thomas, Feeley, Hali, Grant, Polamalu, and A. Wilson.

Local League (Traditional re-draft and scoring): Riding a 4-game winning streak and one game out of first place with a 7-4 record, the Gut Check has a 68-point lead for the overall scoring title and his LJ-led squad has a showdown with an 8-3, LT-led roster. Thomas Jones doesn’t look like as good of a start this week. Addai, Bush, and Barber will all merit consideration. Hopefully Colston or Jennings will be ready to play—otherwise, Joe Jurevicius will get the nod. The Gut Check’s opponent has some sweet match ups this week. It’s going to be a tough game.

Projected Lineup: Favre, LJ, Addai, Galloway, Colston, Henry (or Jennings), Marvin Harrison, Todd Heap, Mike Vanderjagt, and Ravens Defense.

FFTOC: The Gut Check is 52nd overall in this 600-plus, entry tourney and has a very good chance to not only make the playoffs, but win a tough bracket where four of the five teams should make the post season. The key has been rebound from bad weeks.

Fantasy Football Handbook Expert Mock: Once McNabb left on a cart, this team went right along with him. The Gut Check dropped from 4th to 7th and with Brunell as his other option, yours truly is without a quarterback the rest of the way. Happy Trails! Still, out of seven leagues, yours truly has the opportunity to win the scoring title, the division, and a possible championship in five of them with just two weeks left of regular season play.
Sleeper Contest

Thanks to all that entered the contest. Some quick notes that affect the small minority of contestants:

If you entered more than 1 back or receiver, yours truly picked the first one you listed. Trust me, he’s being kind to even consider the entry. There were only a few of these situations, so he opted to enter you rather than disqualify the pick. A bit more common was the occurrence of picking player(s) that ranked too high to be considered sleepers by the rules. The most common players that no longer qualified (or never did) as sleepers were: Laurence Maroney, Rudi Johnson, Wali Lundy, Plaxico Burress, Derrick Mason, and Randy Moss. If you picked a player that was in Krueger’s rankings as a top 20 QB; top 30 RB; or top 30 WR at 6pm Saturday night, you received zero credit for that player

With nearly 170 entries in two days we had a clear cut winner—Mike Atlas with a total of 54.8 points! Mike picked J.P. Losman, Mike Bell, and Bernard Berrian. Despite getting nothing from the Bears receiver, his two monster picks at QB and RB netted him a 2.4-point lead over Jon Potter’s choices of Philip Rivers, Cadillac Williams, and Devery Henderson. Congratulations Mike! The Gut Check will send you a login to receive a free copy of the 2007 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Jon Potter and 3rd place contestant, Matthew Meyer will receive a free copy of the 2006 Rookie Scouting Portfolio.

Here are the complete results: