Point per reception leagues are growing in popularity due to the way they place greater value on versatile running backs and dependable targets at receiver. This week, yours truly supplies 2005 Crank Scores for point per reception leagues. Other than 1 point per reception, the scoring system remains the same: .1 points per yard rushing and receiving, .05 points per yard receiving, 6 points per rushing and receiving touchdowns, and 4 points per passing touchdown. This is just a decimal based system for 1 point per 10-yard/1 point per 20-yard leagues.

So without having to toggle between last week’s article and this week’s table, here are some notable differences in the rankings:

• Lamont Jordan ranked 3rd in PPR (8th in non-PPR): It seems some people are underestimating Jordan’s 2005 performance. The Gut Check projected Jordan to have a year that would have been top-10 worthy for most seasons based on the fact he would be the featured back in Norv Turner’s offense. Despite a sub-par performance from his offensive line and inconsistency from his teammates in the passing game, Jordan had the highest percentage of #1-quality games of any back. Moreover, as a starter in a 2-RB fantasy lineup, only Edgerrin James had a higher percentage. It’s true Jordan didn’t play two games, which impacted his percentage every so slightly for the better, but the Raider’s back was as reliable as any of the elite players in fantasy football. The addition of a mobile QB in Aaron Brooks, Randy Moss’ recovery from multiple injuries, and Art Shell’s common sense approach to revamping the offensive line to maximize their talent should make Jordan at least a top-10 back in 2006. While Jordan’s reception totals may decrease at the expense of more completed balls downfield, the former Maryland star should benefit with more carries and yardage on the ground. This increase should offset any decrease in receptions—and make Jordan a viable top-5 pick in point per reception leagues.
  
  
• Brian Westbrook ranked 8th in PPR (16th in non-PPR): Prior to his injury, Westbrook was on his way to producing the type of season totals one might see from Marshall Faulk—well, maybe not as a Ram but at least during his “better” years as a Colt. The Eagles’ all-purpose back was on track to compile at least 1800 total yards from scrimmage with 9-10 scores. This is a back that has never logged more than 177 carries. If Andy Reid delivers on his promise to give Westbrook more opportunities on the ground, Westbrook could deliver a 1200 or 1300-yard season on the ground in addition to his 600-800 yards as a receiver. That’s as Faulk-like as we’ll see from any back (not named Reggie Bush) within the next few years. Westbrook is a solid, late first-round pick that could vault to the top of the pile.
  
  
• Deuce McAllister ranked 11th in PPR (13th in non-PPR): This is a deceptive stat due to the fact McAllister only played five games before suffering an ACL tear. Further complicating matters is the addition of Reggie Bush in the 2006 draft. It’s difficult to imagine McAllister posting top-15 worthy numbers in 2006 when one considers to these two factors. Still, one should consider McAllister as a valuable, mid-round back if he manages to fall this far.
  
  
• Steven Jackson ranked 13th in PPR (17th in non-PPR): Not much of a difference, but when you consider Jackson will be the bell cow for the Rams’ 2006 ground game, the difference takes on more significance. If Jackson comes anywhere close to 300 carries this year, a 1200-yard, 10-touchdown season should be the minimum expectation. Throw in another 300-400 yards receiving, and Jackson has a good shot to crack the top ten—something many foresee for the former Oregon State Beaver even in non-PPR leagues.
  
  
• Ahman Green ranked 24th in PPR (out of top 25 in non-PPR): The Gut Check is mentioning Green here because like McAllister, he’s an impact talent when healthy. But unlike McAllister, the starting job will be Green’s and only Green’s if he returns to form in training camp. Fantasy owners have short memories with running backs (for good reason with the position’s injury rates and career spans), but Green is a back that represents excellent value. He’ll likely drop past round 6 in drafts before training camp and slowly gain value as he demonstrates he’s returning to form.

As yours truly has mentioned repeatedly at this point, if Ahman Green makes it back from a torn quadriceps tendon, he could be a steal if the Packers offensive line displays any level of improvement. It’s a very iffy proposition, but considering where you can draft Green, it’s worth the risk to take him this year. Same thing could be said for McAllister if anything happens to Reggie Bush. Edgerrin James should continue to be a fine back, but his value will likely be better if he drops out of the top 5-6 packs.

Another back from this generation of explosive, all-purpose runners entering the league in the late nineties is Fred Taylor. The Jaguars back is at a point in his career where he has become the 3rd-5th round pick that owners eternally hope fulfills his vast talent for a full season. It’s now or never for Taylor in Jacksonville, and based on the fact he dramatically altered his diet and training regimen, he knows it. Taylor has been a good, #2 RB in a fantasy lineup. Although he’s on the verge of wearing out his welcome with the Jaguars, taking a chance on him as your #2 RB is still a worthwhile investment.

This is where fantasy owners really need to be aware of the differences in scoring between traditional, and PPR leagues. The Crank RBs column shows how many RBs have a better Crank Score than the listed WR. The Fpts RB column shows the same thing for fantasy points per game. The receivers with this column is highlighted had as much or more value than #1-quality starters at RB. In fact, the top-7 receivers from 2005 were more consistent than the 5th-ranked RB.

Does this mean you should pick these receivers in the first round? Not necessarily. This is the most important example of why one should know their draft. Owens, Boldin, Smith, and Holt might outplay some of the backs picked in the first half of the first round, but the economic laws of supply and demand come into play. A good rule of thumb is to prepare for the worst and expect the best:

• Do your own personal mock draft and pick a WR with your first pick.
  
  
• Chart out the rest of the first and early second round picks with backs, leading up to your second pick.
  
  
• If you can live with any of the 5-6 backs picked prior to your second pick then you might want to consider a WR, first.

Clearly, if your pick is at the tail end of the first round the chances of you being happy with your #1 RB from the second round is pretty good. The issue is whether you will feel good with your projected, worst-case #2 RB in the third or fourth round. This could be a good approach, if you are drafting in a league where backs still fly off the board early despite the point per reception rule. You could acquire two, top-flight receivers and still land a back if picking from one of the early positions in a serpentine draft.

Based on recent history, there are a fair number of “comeback candidates” at the position. Randy Moss gutted out an injury-plagued 2005, and will be expected to post his typically elite numbers. Mike MacGregor makes an interesting point about Moss’ recent seasons with where he had to at least cope with an injury that hindered his performance. Is Moss a “buyer beware” kind of player? It’s possible—if you are a person that likes to stay ahead of the curve, Moss might be a receiver to avoid—but for most, he’s still a solid #1 WR that tantalizes owners with his ability to carry a fantasy squad any given week.

Darrell Jackson and Joe Horn also saw their 2005 performances suffer due to injury, but both are expected to rebound nicely. Jackson’s injury is more worrisome than Horn’s, but the Saints receiver does have a questionable quarterback situation. Look for Horn to be a bargain in several drafts where tentative owners let the perennial, #1-quality fantasy receiver drop farther than he should due to questions about Bree’s recovery.

Derrick Mason is a candidate for the Gut Check’s all preseason team. The 9th-rated Crank WR from 2003-2005 should return to form with his long-time QB now a Raven. In fact, reports out of Baltimore already point to Mason-McNair showing off their rapport on a regular basis in camp. Leagues in the know will likely make Derrick Mason a hyped sleeper that means a jump in value, but the average league might still present him as a relative bargain.

Despite the fact Gonzalez was no longer part of the elite in 2005, he should still be a top tight end regardless of the coaching changes. Unless Trent Green gets amnesia early in the season, Gonzalez will still get his looks. In fact, if the running game becomes an even bigger staple—especially with 2-TE sets, Gonzalez could return to fantasy prominence. The Gut Check would have no problem “settling” for Gonzalez in 2006.

Next week, the Gut Check will provide projected Crank Scores in with an Average Value Theory approach. The week after, he’ll provide another set of projections based on 2005’s mix of last year’s scores and average Crank progressions.