The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 42
Players On And Off The Fantasy Radar
8/16/05

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

Hey Matt,

I'm a big Gut Check fan, and I especially loved the Crank Articles you recently published and I'm intrigued by all the possibilities of what could be done with them. After looking over the scores, I think I may have figured out why Tiki Barber is ranked so high. I think Tiki would be ranked much lower if you projected his stats for Week 11 - Week 17 (the games when Manning started) and used those to figure out his Crank Score. His score would be a lot lower than it was when he had Warner at QB. I did notice that Tiki played some hard defenses during those weeks (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, Philly), but I still think his stats will be much lower with Eli at QB than they were when Warner was at QB. It's sort of the same relationship between Dante's numbers and having Moss around.

Just some thoughts from an inspired fan,

Skier

It’s hard to deny a good point and if one just uses weeks 11-17 of Barber’s season as a reflection of how he performed with Eli Manning at the helm, his Crank Score drops to 48.94 all the way down to 16th on Yours Truly’s cheat sheet. It’s a very significant drop, and based on his ADP, a more likely place to target him. The Gut Check is optimistic that Barber will be a top ten back because the numbers are a reflection of Manning paying his dues against some of the tougher defenses in the NFL, and he remains the centerpeice of the Giants offense.

Speaking of Barber, the focus on another Giants RB starts off this week’s column, devoted to more subjective observations of players on and off the fantasy radar.

On the Radar

Brandon Jacobs has been the talk of the FF Today Board after his impressive performance versus Cleveland. The Gut Check thinks Jacobs looks more like what the Giants imagined when they drafted Ron Dayne—a big back with nice acceleration, vision, and the willingness to run over people when the opportunity arises. Jacobs’ reception off the Tim Hasselbeck swing pass was a good example of a back that understands how to catch the football and get up field. Yours Truly has definitely bought into the hype. He traded Mike MacGregor his 2006 3rd round pick for three fifth round picks (two this year and one next) and picked Jacobs at the top of the fifth round in a 40-man dynasty league back in May. Yet, The Gut Check views Jacobs’ 2005 prospects as a potential injury fill-in and possible goal line threat for those in TD-only leagues.

Anyone beginning to think Brandon Lloyd is a preseason wonder? While The Gut Check believes Lloyd will be the most consistent offensive threat in the 49ers arsenal in 2005, and a potential breakout player, the 49er is beginning to build a reputation as football’s version of Mr. August. He gets a lot of owners excited in the summer, which makes it increasingly less likely to get great value when drafting him.

Don’t look now, but Larry Fitzgerald is about to show what he’ll be able to with two healthy ankles and a quarterback that can not only read defenses, but also throw the ball with accuracy. He’s moving up The Gut Check’s draft board because as athletic as Boldin is as a receiver, one cannot underestimate the concept of great rapport between a QB and WR. Boldin has not had as much work with Warner due to his contract issues and a broken nose. Yours Truly would flip-flop Fitzgerald and Boldin when it comes to their draft standing.

The Gut Check has a feeling Cadillac Williams didn’t see time in the first preseason game because Gruden doesn’t need to see anything more from him. This lack of playing time in game one is a positive sign that Gruden envisions Williams carrying the load for Tampa. Based on the average ranking of defenses versus the run on their schedule, the Bucs have the most favorable schedule when it comes to running the ball. Yours Truly has drafted Williams in four leagues thus far and hopefully more before the season begins. He’s easily available as a #3 fantasy RB in terms of rounds or price in standard or auction drafts, respectively.

Speaking of favorable defensive schedules, Steve McNair has the third-easiest schedule of pass defenses this year. As most already know, the Titan has dropped 25 pounds in the off-season—the first where he’s been 100% healthy in several years. What has The Gut Check most excited about his favorite player in football is Norm Chow giving McNair the freedom to audible to any play at the line of scrimmage. Chow’s predecessor, Mike Heimerdinger, restricted McNair to plays that he called on the sideline, which frequently resulted in the Tennessee QB having to make the best of some very difficult situations. Despite this restriction, McNair has been one of the best 3rd down QBs in football. Look for the Titan’s leader to not only receive less punishment but also create more game-changing plays. The Gut Check got McNair in two drafts this week. The first was for $6 in an auction league among competing sites and the second was in the 10th round of a local league as a backup to Kerry Collins.

Off The Radar

McNair is an example of a player that scares most owners due to his previous issues with injury and the prospect of it happening again. Another Titan that has plummeted down draft boards is TE Ben Troupe. The second year player from Florida is in the same class of athletes that are bringing the position back to the offensive forefront: Gonzalez, Gates, Heap, Shockey, and McMichael. Troupe is well ahead of schedule in his recovery from a pre-training camp foot injury. Look for the Titans to line Troupe up outside in what is basically a standard, one back-three receiver set or two TE sets on the line. He’s going to have some big games this year, and at a late round price.

Two-tight end sets should be a common site in Kansas City, where a trusted source has told The Gut Check that Kris Wilson could put up quality fantasy totals for a tight end despite the fact that Tony Gonzalez remains one of the premier players at the position. Wilson picked up where he left off in 2004 training camp prior to his season ending injury. So much so, the Chiefs will compensate for their lack of a great receiving corps with a heavy dose of Gonzalez and Wilson creating mismatches in a variety of spots all over the field. Wilson is generally un-drafted in most fantasy leagues. Yours Truly picked up Wilson last week in round 20 as his second TE. At worst, The Gut Check can find a suitable #2 TE on the waiver wire if Wilson doesn’t pan out—but he’s not anticipating it will be necessary.

The Gut Check has two available waiver wire picks at the quarterback position for dynasty league owners—Panthers rookie QB Stefan LeFors and second-year Broncos QB Bradlee Van Pelt. Lefors is a Louisville product that draws physical comparisons to Drew Brees but with more athleticism. ”The guy was a playmaker at a high level," said coach John Fox of LeFors. "There is something sparky about the guy. That is what we saw and that is why we drafted him." LeFors threw two touchdown passes in the 4th quarter against Washington and lit up a scrimmage the week before. Jake Delhomme is expected to have plenty of seasons in front of him, but like Matt Schaub toiling behind Mike Vick, talent (in most cases) will eventually get its opportunity to shine.

Van Pelt, the son of all-pro Giants LB Brad Van Pelt, was known as a tough-nosed, ultra-competitive scrambler out of Colorado State with a bit of a Jim McMahon-like personality. Van Pelt arrived last year as a late pick that competed with LSU QB Matt Mauck for a roster spot. Mauck, lacked the great arm but had the right mindset while Van Pelt had the physical tools but lacked the proper approach. But Van Pelt got serious about developing and has made an excellent run at becoming the #2 QB behind Jake Plummer. "He brings a lot of fire, a lot of passion to the game," Plummer said of Van Pelt. "In some ways, he reminds me of myself when I was younger." In fact, Van Pelt had a 40-yeard run on a QB draw against the Texans last weekend.

A third young scrambling QB with quickly developing skills in the passing game is Seahawks QB Seneca Wallace. He’s sewn up the job backing up Matt Hasselbeck and was especially impressive against the Saints last weekend.

RB Chris Perry of the Bengals is rarely showing up on draft boards, but after last weekend, he should be making an appearance soon. There is discussion that Marvin Lewis plans to incorporate Perry into the offense now that he’s healthy. He’s definitely on dynasty radars, but he’s at times un-drafted in other formats. This is a back that has it all—good size, speed, and hands. Marvin Lewis has a nice track record with his draft picks, so it’s best not to overlook Perry.

Another player languishing below the radar that FF Today Forum member TikiBarbersBarber has been touting for months now is Cleveland WR Antonio Bryant. The former Pittsburgh Panther was regarded as easily the most talented WR in his draft class, but lacked discipline and maturity. Bryant had 814 yards and 4 scores last year for the Browns, in most respects he fits the bill as a breakout candidate for The Gut Check’s profile of receivers. Last week, Trent Dilfer described Bryant as the most talented receiver he’s worked with thus far in his NFL career—that includes Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson. Bryant can be had for a song in most leagues because of the Braylon Edwards factor. Don’t pick the rookie when you can have the starting primary receiver several rounds later!

Lost in the Cadillac Williams hype in Tampa is RB Derek Watson the former South Carolina star. Watson was acquired as a free agent from the Patriots after getting kicked off the Gamecocks. He was later waived after succumbing to injury early in camp. Watson is a powerful runner with excellent balance, vision, and decent receiving skills. Watson actually got invited to camp as a street free agent and has already impressed Jon Gruden with his skills. He has an excellent chance of not only making the roster, but also eventually pushing Michael Pittman for future playing time as the backup. Look for Watson to at least make the practice squad and eventually develop into a solid #2 RB, ala Chester Taylor behind Jamal Lewis in Baltimore.

WR Patrick Crayton of the Dallas Cowboys caught Bill Parcells’ eye late last season. Don’t be surprised if this overachiever pushes underachiever Quincy Morgan for the #3 spot this season.

WR Kelley Washington has had a strong camp and has similar athleticism as Jags receiver Reggie Williams. Don’t be surprised if Washington cuts into T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s numbers before the halfway mark of the season, and takes the job outright down the stretch.

Stuff From The Editing Room Floor

Yours Truly receives his fair share of emails with questions about which players to pick, keep, or start. These correspondences often include inquiries into The Gut Check’s leagues. Thus far, Yours Truly is in seven leagues with only one yet to hold its draft.

Who is The Gut Check drafting? Here’s some drafts worth examining.

Ironman 3 Dynasty League: 14-team league, 40-man rosters with IDP, practice squad, and IR. Rookie Draft was held in late April. The Gut Check and another new owner drafted their squads from one team two years ago. This is their third draft. Both Yours Truly and that owner were selecting 2nd and 3rd overall after dismal seasons in 2004.