After two seasons, Jason Witten leads the list in positive differential. Part of the reason is his lack of game experience and the corresponding production inflates this figure. Still, The Gut Check can’t deny that Witten has become an anchor in the Cowboys’ offensive attack. Although there’s much debate about Drew Bledsoe’s prospects in 2005, it would be shocking if Witten doesn’t become the QBs security blanket and go to guy. Bledsoe has been subject to a lot of criticism for holding onto the ball too long, but partially in his defense is Buffalo’s lack of a quality pass-catching tight end in the offense. The tight end is an integral part of the short and intermediate passing routes. If the Gut Check is right about this, don’t be surprised if Bledsoe approaches numbers more like the quarterback during his years as a Patriot with Ben Coates rather than his last two in Buffalo.

Antonio Gates’ high differential is just more good news for fantasy owners—even if it drops a bit due to coaches looking for more ways to stop him in 2005.

Ben Troupe was poised to be a popular sleeper pick at the position before he injured his foot in mini-camp. If the Titans’ second-year prospect is fully recovered to start the 2005 season, he could be a great bargain. His athleticism finally began to show in late 2004 after an initial adjustment period. Unfortunately, his injury is similar to former Titan Jevon Kearse, another great University of Florida athlete that was hampered for all of 2003. Keep an eye on the injury report.

Billy Miller has the talent, but he disappeared last year after a ranking 7th overall among fantasy tight ends the year before. Is it a problem with Miller or the system? The Gut Check isn’t sure, but he’s a nice, late round gamble, or an early-season waiver wire selection in 2005.

Matt Schobel has the hands and athleticism to be a starting fantasy tight end, but he needs to work on his blocking to stay on the field. If the brother of Aaron and Bo (defensive ends for the Bills and Titans, respectively) can improve his aspect of his game, he’ll also be a great late round or waiver wire bargain. If not, The Gut Check suggests owners keep an eye on former Louisville Cardinal Ronnie Ghent, a second-year prospect drafted late but has the talent and size to move up with an opportunity.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, what do Freddie Jones, Randy McMichael, and Eric Johnson have in common? They had sporadic quarterback play from developing signal callers for at least one season. McMichael has the best chance to improve with a veteran like Frerotte under center. Jones needs to show he can block. If he does, he could revert back to his early days of production as a Charger, but The Gut Check isn’t optimistic—and Kris Magnum is the kind of overachiever that could make Jones look bad. Eric Johnson’s knee is a concern—which is another reason for his negative differential last year. If he can’t go, keep an eye on Aaron Walker.

Receivers don’t have a much broader differential than TEs. Here are splits for 60 active WRs 2002-2004:

It’s no surprise Mushin Muhammad and Drew Bennett top the list after their unbelievable finishes last year. Although 2004 inflates their overall numbers a bit, the production should continue in at least Drew Bennett’s case. The new primary receiver in Tennessee is a player on the rise. Although his doubters try to point out that he and Billy Volek had a great rapport, The Gut Check saw Steve McNair target Drew Bennett in quite a few clutch situations in 2003, including a game-winning touchdown catch with no time left in Houston, and a great effort in double coverage that fell short in New England in the playoffs. Bennett has been going later in drafts than his season-ending stats might place him—this makes him a decent bargain and possibly provide a smart fantasy owner with two #1 fantasy receivers in a starting lineup.

Muhammad finally played like the receiver the Panthers hoped they drafted several years ago. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he’s now a Chicago Bear and the change of teams alone casts some doubt on the receiver’s chances of repeating his career year. As a result, Muhammad’s fantasy stock is dropping fast, in some cases the Bears’ new #1 WR is available near round 10 in re-drafts. Regardless of one’s optimism or pessimism, a receiver coming off the kind of season Muhammad had in 2004 is too good to pass up that late.

Chad Johnson’s differential is just another stat that illustrates his talent and desire to improve—it also shows his growing connection with Carson Palmer. He’s arguably approaching the same status of Moss and Owens in dynasty league drafts.

Jerry Porter has been a slow starter, but strong finisher. Last year this had a lot to do with he and Kerry Collins going through an adjustment period. This year, The Gut Check expects a strong finish, and a strong start with Randy Moss on the other side.

Darrell Jackson, Joe Horn, and Terrell Owens are all valued starters that have a history of gaining momentum as the season progresses, but there’s something worth keeping in mind about all the receivers mentioned: many of their teams either lost a valued runner to injury or the running game experienced lulls in production.

This theory gains a little more merit when examining the bottom three receivers. Williams was hampered with an injury, but Kevin Jones certainly turned it on in the second half of the season. Domanick Davis also did the same in Houston, although Johnson is merely in his second year. Both Johnson and Williams experienced the “rookie wall” during their first seasons—which is included within this range of data. Willis McGahee was good enough to have fantasy owners reaching for him in the early to mid-first round in many 2005 drafts, but Moulds has also been known to disappear for stretches in recent seasons. Terry Glenn has perennially been a receiver that has some nice early games and just as one thinks he might become reliable, the switch shuts off.

More conclusions for consideration:

• Trade for wide receivers on teams where the team’s running game suffers and injury—Drew Bennett, Mushin Muhammad, and Eddie Kennison are examples of players that had good finishes while their RB counterparts Chris Brown, Stephen Davis & DeShaun Foster, and Priest Holmes struggled with their health. FFTOC managers should keep this in mind when they see a starting running back go down for the season.
  
  
• 7 of the 10 best differentials belong to receivers one could categorize as deep threats for their teams. This may have to do with offenses making adjustments or gaining comfort with the deep ball as the season progresses.
  
  
• Veteran receivers—at least five years of experience—appear more consistent and even turn it up a notch down the stretch. There’s a lot to be said about experience. Veterans generally perform better with injuries and are used to the length of the season. They also assimilate information better.
  
  
• Players that get the ball behind the line of scrimmage (RBs & QBs) have greater split differentials than those that get the ball in front of it (WRs & TEs).
  
  
• Fantasy owners shouldn’t wait too long to trade away a receiver experiencing a tough start to the season. If the WR hasn’t broken out by game five or six, it’s most likely time to consider trading him. This is due to the fact that the differential is narrow—if the WR improves odds are it won’t be enough to make a significant difference to a roster.
  
  
• With the understanding that differentials are narrower for receivers and tight ends, it’s probably best to use these players in trades for quarterbacks and running backs or package two disappointing receivers with historically good value for one receiver.

In the coming weeks, The Gut Check will provide an FFTOC-league primer some stat splits for weeks 1-6 vs. 7-12 vs. 13-16 for each position. In addition he’ll discuss various strategies to help fantasy owners win their brackets and have enough talent left for the final weeks.