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John's Articles

Uniformed Killer
8/7/06

So far 2006 has not been my favorite year in any way shape or form. It has not been the worst, but it is far from being the best.

Being a teacher I usually have something called summer vacation. It is time to get away from the grind of kids to reflect on the problems coming up next year as well as recover from the beating only junior high students can give an adult. This summer has contained nothing of the sort. Instead this summer has been dedicated to matters of the heart; literally. After two near death experiences in as many days I awoke to find myself tethered to a bed awaiting surgery.

For some silly reason they want you remain fairly calm when they diagnose a heart condition. Fortunately I had my laptop with me along with some form of connection to the net. I spent some time emailing concerned friends; I spent more time looking at fantasy football news and mock drafts. After spending hour after hour on this material two conclusions struck me; the popularity of the fantasy game has never been higher yet the creative aspect of the game has never been lower.

I have the handle “Old School” within the confines of this web site, the name fits. I have been at this game too many years. I began before the digital revolution and "pay for information" sites. I was playing before there were people to consult regarding player performance and before there was television dedicated to nothing but fantasy football. All the information owners could garner regarding players came from memory, notes from past seasons and general information from the print media. Everyone entered the draft knowing it was a crap shoot, yet enjoying every second of it. Most owners shot directly from the hip playing their hunches for the season. Some even hit their marks. Things have changed considerably. Like the presidential elections, it seems the season never ends; it just blurs into the next one.

Leagues are forming earlier while my email from owners is arriving sooner. It used to wait until late July or early August, now I have people writing me in the middle of June as they are already planning their drafts while sorting their selections. The anticipation is still there, especially as teams head into camps, what is lacking is the element of creativity.

After looking at hundreds of mock drafts, one thing has become apparent, like the real NFL, everyone is following a system. In this case, the system is “get your running backs ASAP and screw the other positions." For the most part, the first three rounds were dominated by running back selections. This pattern began to break in the third round, but only slightly... QB Peyton Manning, WR Steve Smith, with a few other receivers, made an appearance. The running back run kept its’ momentum into the fourth round with about half the picks going to ball carriers.

It seems owners have become obsessed with having these brittle, sometimes unproductive individuals. Some owners were going as far as three deep into a team’s depth chart to procure enough stallions to fill their stable. By the end of the drafts there were owners who had as many as eight running backs in the stalls. They would back this up with two quarterbacks; usually taken in the middle and late rounds, along with four wide outs, a tight end, a kicker and the defense they were allowed. Like dogs with insatiable appetites, some owners were spending the first five rounds on nothing but rushers of the NFL at the expense of all other positions.

Of course the position of running back has always been important. Teams lived or died on the abilities of these ball carriers. Anyone who had Thurman Thomas, Emmitt Smith or Marcus Allen in their primes knows the value of the RB. Few players have had the impact of a Marshall Faulk of Edgerrin James. Anyone sitting there with a top three pick has to be considering which RB to take as the consensus seems to be one of the following backs; LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson. The order of potential talent depends on what publication you are reading, but these are the “Big Three” running backs of the NFL and fantasy football. In one publication fourteen of their top twenty selections are running backs. There is one QB (guess who?) and five wide receivers. What may be more striking is their first nine players are all running backs.

It has always been traditional wisdom to select running backs, then begin building a team around them, but this did not have to be the case. Creative owners could select a wide receiver or a quarterback in the first round to begin to build a team around because there was enough diversity in the league to permit this; not anymore.

I still watch a lot of sports programming on TV, I also read as much as I can get my hands on through the year. Few teams are even mentioned as “passing teams." Not even the vaunted Raider vertical stretch is mentioned as they too have gone the way of establishing the run. There is one team constantly mentioned as a “passing team”; the Philadelphia Eagles.

Excuse me! Is there any owner out there looking to take an Eagle in the first, or even second round of their draft? Their receiving corps, with the exception of the TO era, has never been anything to brag about. In fact, until TO the only Philly receiver anyone would consider spending a high draft selection on would have been Harold Carmichael, he is over a decade removed from the game.

Looking at the current crop of receivers the Eagles plan on using for this season’s campaign, they total seven TD’s from last season. Is there anyone out there planning on spending more than a possible last round pick on Todd Pinkston or Reggie Brown? The best receiver on the Eagle’s team is their RB Brian Westbrook who had seven TD’s last season, four of them through the air. Still, Westbrook should not be a running back consideration until after the second round. The same could be said about Donovan McNabb who, though tough as nails, is coming off an injury season with virtually nothing in the way of top ranked talent to infiltrate a secondary. If this is what is recognized as a passing team in the NFL, the aerial attack is in dire straights.

Sure the Colts have a flying circus when Peyton gets it going. The Rams can even have the potential of airing it out when Marc Bulger is not sitting on the bench injured. With the exception of Manning, is there anyone there deserving of a selection in the first two rounds of a draft? The Colts spread the ball around too much to consider Marvin Harrison a top draft selection. The Rams are supposed to focus more on the run to consider selecting Torry Holt until after the second round. Outside of Manning the only consideration in the first couple of rounds of a draft might be Steven Jackson if he can improve over last year’s performance.

The league, because it does such a wonderful job of playing “Follow the Successful System” has always been a realm of follow the leader. From the innovation called the “T” formation to the single back offense it is the system which dictates everything.

Bill Walsh brought the West Coast offense into the league back in the 80’s. After a few Super Bowl wins other teams adopted it with success. Warren Moon was brought into the league from Canada to manage the “Run and Shoot” offense featuring a single back. It too caught on within the league. Defenses are either a 3-4 or a 4-3 with every team employing their “Nickel” and “Dime” packages. The players may make the system go, but players are drafted to feed the system of a given team. The system is king, not the people running it. The game of “Follow the System” has now infiltrated the fantasy world.

Now everyone, if they want to have a chance at a championship, must step in line and follow suit. It is running back, running back, then perhaps more running back on the menu if an owner plans on eating like a big dog come play-off time. The only problem with the menu is it gets tedious eating the same meal over and over, running back is no different.

It might seem inevitable fantasy leagues would have to follow the dictates of the NFL, but that does not make it more fun. The daring used to be in the draft strategy, now it lies in what running back an owner is willing to take a chance on if they are picking beyond the number three slot in their draft. Like an assembly line, drafts around the world of fantasy have accomplished the fete of making the same product over and over. Some are going to perform better as they will be built better, but will have virtually the same look and the same feel.

Recently ESPN the Magazine ran an article written by Bill Simmons, the “Sports Guy.” In the article Simmons dissects the problems with fantasy football, then proposes solutions to those problems. The solutions, like the title of the article “The New Rules” are a rip off moving the realm of fantasy to more uniformity. The prescription calls for uniform sizes to leagues, uniform scoring, uniform draft selections all made in the image of ESPN television, uniformity. Heck, the TV side of ESPN is offering Mort at your draft so you could draft just like him.

Alexander de Tocqueville, a keen observer of America and history, made many observations regarding the behavior of civilizations and people. One of my favorite observations he made goes something like this. “The first sign of a civilization in decline is their push towards uniformity.” If this is the case, and I believe it is, then the NFL has been in decline since the 80’s and early 90’s. It took some doing, but regrettably fantasy football may be facing the same plight. Make no mistake, it will always enhance the NFL season, but it may no longer be the fertile creative breeding ground it once was. Still, it is the best game in town.