8/28/08
Getting old is not for sissies. The daily surprise of what pain
is going to flare up, along with the insistent pull of gravity on
the body can wear on anyone; especially NFL running backs. The aging
process for average humans can be somewhat gradual, for a professional
running back it is an accelerated process.
The wear and tear of transporting an air filled leather object
almost 300 times a season into aggressive people with large muscles
weighing of upwards of 300 pounds can put the hurt on any body.
It should be no surprise running backs have a short shelf life
in the NFL. It should also be no mystery as to why a running back
can go from being a 1000+ gainer one season to barley able to
clear the line of scrimmage the next. (See Shaun Alexander 2005
MVP with 28 scores, 1,880 rushing yards. Three Pro-Bowl selections,
2003, 2004 and 2005. Wait…you, can’t see Shaun in
2008 because this 30-year-old is not on any roster)
One of the major reasons running backs rarely last past the
age of 31 is injury. For Alexander it was a foot then a wrist
injury, for others the knee is the primary injury culprit. The
knee joint was not intended to take a blast from a cat like 280-pound
linebacker while cleats are planted firmly in the ground. Something
has to give and it is usually ligaments and tendons.
The research seems to indicate an NFL running back has an effective
career until the age of 30 or until they have carried the twin
pointed orb 2,728 times; an average of 273 touches per season.
This year’s crop of aging wonders is not very long but it
does have some of the top names in the league. Taking a look at
the “Gray Beards” is something all owners should consider,
but especially those in keeper leagues.
Heading the list of runners I would not consider drafting at
all is Edgerrin
James. It is not so much Edgerrin seems to have lost the “Edge”
since joining the Cardinals organization; it has more to do with
his body clock numbers. As he enters his tenth year in the league
this former number one fantasy draft selection also enters his
third decade of life. (8/1/08) Not only carrying this millstone,
he is also carrying the burden of being about 500 carries past
the usual drop off point in production. For more than half his
life “The Edge” has been toting the football for prep, collegiate
and professional teams. In essence his tenth year is really more
like his eleventh and a two-thirds season in the league. His total
TD production for the last two seasons (14) exceeds his total
TD production in his final year with the Colts by one. It might
be time for Tim Hightower or first-round selection J.J. Arrington
to make their mark; or not. At any rate it would appear James
may be past his prime. He is not alone.
Ahman Green enters the season at age 31. Some might argue his
first two years in the league should be discounted as he played
sparingly for the Seahawks. They would be wrong. Since his injury
season of 2005 his production has dropped significantly garnering
only eight TDs and a little over 1,500 yards. He has not completed
a full season two of the last three campaigns. He also seems to
have lost more than the proverbial step. Given the back up in
Houston seems to be Chris Brown, the Texans are counting on Green.
You don’t have to do this. It seems the Texans are making
some improvements, but the running back cupboard seems to be left
bare. Neither Green, nor the straight up running style of Brown
are what they, or any fantasy owner, need in their line-up.
As much as I hate to say it, Fred Taylor would not enter my
draft picture unless I was in a position to take Maurice Jones-Drew.
Fred has the bad rap of not being able to finish a season, yet
he is one of the most reliable RB’s in the league. Last
season, at age 31, he played in 15 games and gained a combined
1,260 yards while scoring five times. This is respectable for
anyone, for someone who was 31 at the time it is a testament to
his toughness and durability. There is only one season (2001)
where he did not make double-digit appearances, but the grim reaper
is not kind to runners who are 32. Still, the man seems to defy
the odds. Although I would not consider either Jaguar runner to
be in my top 20 for the position, I might consider the two of
them a reliable package deal in the middle rounds of a draft.
This is not the only dynamic duo to consider.
Deuce McAllister has been dealing with serious injuries for
two of the last three seasons. Still, after his injury-shortened
season of 2005 he came back for a respectable 2006 scoring ten
times while gaining more than 1000 yards on the ground. Despite
success two seasons ago, two season-ending injuries in three seasons
should be a red flag for anyone considering this soon to be thirty-year-old
back. With Reggie Bush entering his third season, and needing
to have a big year, this could be a tandem to consider. It could
be a version of thunder and lightening which could rain points
for your team.
One of the aging ones I would consider looking at in the top
twenty at this position would be Ricky
Williams. I know, many say his best years have gone up in
smoke, but consider this 31-year-old has essentially taken the
last two seasons off. He has looked steady, if not spectacular,
this pre-season. Running mate Ronnie
Brown is coming off a knee injury in 2007 making Ricky look
more attractive than usual. I would not consider him a sleeper,
perhaps a nodder, but Ricky might be the kind of late round addition
which would turn heads in your league while producing numbers
for you as the season rolls. This too might be a tandem worth
considering as the Dolphins attempt to rise to the level of mediocre.
People may think you are crazy for selecting the “Marijuana Messiah”
and his running mate, but they would think you are insane for
considering the next move.
Time to trade L.T.? - 2823 touches during
his seven-year career.
For those of you who have not been watching the calendar, LaDainian
Tomlinson is fast approaching thirty years of age. He will
remain 29 throughout this season, but age 30 is just around the
corner. (6/23/09) This is also a guy who exceeded the 2,728 touches
level last season finishing the year with 2,823 for his seven-year
career. Both of these numbers are worrisome. There is enough concern
to consider this year his last as the prevailing number one fantasy
selection. I know what I speak is blasphemy. I also know some
people are considering Adrian Peterson a number one selection
in Tomlinson’s stead. For this season lets say LaDainian will
defy the odds and the numbers making him a bona fide number one
selection, but his injury from last season would have me considering
a trade at the end of the season in a keeper league. The Chargers
do what they can to protect their treasure. They do not play him
in the pre-season, but they use the heck out of him when the lights
are on. It might be good to consider a long-term plan to take
value for the guy while he is considered the best running back
in football. This consensus opinion may not last much longer.
As for the aforementioned Mr.
Peterson, take him and take his running mate Chester
Taylor. They are a running back combination with tremendous
value as well as proven performance. I know his performance fell
off better than most because I had the man. He let me down when
I needed him most, but it won’t happen this season. As a sophomore
professional this Viking is going to come out strong then finish
the same way. Despite an improving Tarvaris Jackson and the addition
of Bernard Berrian the Vikes will look to grind yardage out on
the ground. Next season look for him to ascend the throne as the
new consensus number one.
There is a plethora of quality running backs this year. Most
seem to be in their early to mid-twenties making them prime candidates
for long term service as well as durable productivity. Marion
Barber looks to break out as a solo act in Dallas while Steven
Jackson looks to be rewarded in St. Louis. Larry
Johnson in Kansas City is coming off an injury with a more
stable front line while Laurence
Maroney seeks to silence the critics who don’t feel he can
carry the load for the Patriots. It might be my prejudice, but
I look at Justin
Fargas and Darren
McFadden and wonder if the Raiders might have the beginnings
of Thunderbolt and Lightfoot in the backfield. This could be something
to take to the bank.
There is no reason to rush into a running back selection. If
you are not selecting in the top three this might be the season
to consider looking at a solid quarterback or productive wideout.
What you don’t want to do is risk taking a back at the end
of his career. Being elite athletes, most NFL rushers are slow
to realize the end has arrived. As sad as it is, it might be time
for some of these thoroughbreds to head out to pasture. Do not
let your season go there with them.
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