Although Brees has four total passing touchdowns in his last
four games and the Eagles hodge-podge secondary is playing much
better over the past three, I feel comfortable playing Brees at
home regardless of the matchup. Sean Payton has had two weeks
to prepare for the Eagles, the Saints destroyed Jim Schwartz’s
defense when the two teams played earlier in the year, and starting
left tackle Terron Armstead looks like he will return to the field.
While I do like Patrick Mahomes at home against the Colts, Brees
and the Saints at home against the Eagles is the matchup I prefer.
Finding a GPP quarterback play in a small field like the divisional
round of the playoffs is often a tough task considering that the
eight teams left in the playoffs are there for a reason. Either
they earned a first-round bye due to the fact that they are one
of the four best teams in the league, or they won their opening
round Wild Card matchup and earned the right to continue playing.
Of the eight QBs to pick from this weekend the one I will target
in GPP is Nick Foles, based on his relatively low salary of $5,400,
and his matchup against the No. 31-ranked Saints pass defense.
Fade - Tom
Brady vs. Los Angeles Chargers - $5,600
Brady reached the 20-point plateau just twice in his last nine
games, finishing outside QB1 status for the first time in years.
I am not excited to play him unless he has a cupcake matchup against
a bad secondary, which is not how I would describe the Chargers.
The Colts know they are not built on offense to compete with
the Chiefs. They also know that they have one of the better offensive
lines and the Chiefs have been one of the worst run defending
teams all season. I anticipate that Frank Reich will run early
and often in this game to dominate time of possession and use
his advantage in the trenches. Mack has at least one touchdown
in each of his last five games, and at least 20 fantasy points
in three of his previous four. All signs point to a strong game
for Mack and a ton of volume.
Other options to consider - Ezekiel
Elliott @ Los Angeles Rams
GPP - Sony
Michel vs. Los Angeles Chargers - $4,700
I personally am not a big fan of Sony Michel from a fantasy or
real life football perspective, as I felt that Nick Chubb was
a far more talented back. But in the right circumstances, I have
profited from Michel in DFS, including weeks like this were the
game script suggests that the Patriots will need to run the ball
heavily and use a short pass game against a tough Charger defense.
Other options to consider - Damien
Williams vs. Indianapolis
I applaud Gordon for playing through his knee injury to help
his team win their opening round game against the Ravens last
week. Gordon managed to score a touchdown, but he was clearly
limited in his lateral mobility and burst from the knee injury.
I think he will play again this week and a touchdown is not out
of the question, but with less than 20 touches I can’t see
him having a monster game against the Pats.
Wide Receivers
H2H/Cash - Amari Cooper @ Los Angeles Rams -
$6,500
I would feel more comfortable with this pick had Cooper not run
his mouth and claimed that he knew Aquib Talib and Marcus Peters
inside and out. Sure, the Rams may have some bulletin board material
and added incentive to limit Cooper, but it doesn’t change the
fact that they have been dreadful this year in pass defense. Look
for Cooper to get around 10 targets in this game, with the possibility
of more should the Rams go up big on the Cowboys and create a
positive game script for more passes from Dak.
Other options to consider - Alshon
Jeffery @ New Orleans
The Patriots will have their hands full trying to stop the running
game of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler, and the short crossing
passing of Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry. With Bill Belichick
focusing on stopping the bread and butter of the Chargers offense,
look for Mike Williams to test the McCourty twins deep and in
the red zone. At $4,700 and with multi-touchdown upside, Williams
is a perfect GPP play this week. It also doesn’t hurt that the
Patriots rank in the bottom half in the league in explosive passing
plays according to Sharp Football.
Other options to consider - Golden
Tate vs. New Orleans
Do I think Michael Thomas will be active in this game and garner
a ton of passes from Drew Brees? Absolutely, but I also think
he could be the focus of the Eagles secondary and deliver a game
of fewer than 12 points which he’s done in four of his last
six games.
The gaudy yardage and catch totals that fans enjoyed earlier
in the season are no longer there, but the red zone targets have
been there for Eric Ebron, with the former Lions tight end catching
a TD in each of his last two games. To make him even more attractive,
Ebron gets to play against a Chiefs team that allowed the most
points to opposing tight ends.
Other options to consider - Travis
Kelce vs. Indianapolis
Last week I touted Goedert as an inexpensive GPP play for owners
looking to save money at tight end. Goedert came through with
a touchdown, albeit on just two receptions for 20 yards. I prefer
to pay up for Ebron against the Chiefs, but if you are looking
for a sub-3k play, Goedert finding the end zone in what could
be the highest scoring game of the week is not out of the question.
Other options to consider - Blake
Jarwin vs. Los Angeles Rams
For whatever reason, Ertz and Foles just don’t gel quite
as well as Ertz does with Carson Wentz. Add in the fact that the
Saints are better at stopping tight ends (third fewest to tight
ends) than wide receivers, and you have the recipe for Alshon
Jeffery and Golden Tate garnering more targets than Ertz owners
would like to see. I would rather save the money ago pair Goedert
with a high-end wide receiver.
Defense & Special Teams
High Priced Option Worthy of the Cost:
Rams ($3,000) vs. Cowboys
Well Priced with Upside: Chargers ($2,400) @
Patriots
