Editor's Note:
ADP based on 12-team non-PPR scoring system.
The word “value” gets thrown around plenty during
fantasy drafts, and for good reason. Acquiring key contributors
in the right round without reaching for need can make or break
fantasy owners. That’s why mock drafts are important –
to help owners get an idea of which rounds a player might go in.
But during these busy summer months, not everyone has the time
for that, so we’re going to give you a position-by-position
breakdown of overvalued and undervalued players based on their
Average Draft Position (ADP).
With Stills and Graham gone, Marques Colston
should improve on his 59 receptions from last season.
The Case For Colston Being Undervalued:
He’s no longer the team’s top wideout and his numbers have regressed
in recent seasons.
The Case Against Colston Being Undervalued:
The Saints no longer employ Jimmy Graham or Kenny Stills and Colston
is still solid in terms of production.
Verdict: Colston has played nine seasons
in the NFL, and has caught between five and 11 touchdowns in each
of them while racking up at least 900 yards in all but an injury-shortened
2008 campaign. The Hofstra product is now behind Brandin Cooks in
the Saints’ pecking order at wide receiver, but the loss of Stills
and Graham (the team’s number one and three receivers according
to last year’s production) and no true replacements should mean
Colston continues to see plenty of action. He may not be a WR1 anymore,
but he shouldn’t be the 45th wideout drafted either, which is his
average right now.
The Case For Smith Being Undervalued:
He was a top-20 fantasy receiver last year and one of the 49ers’
few real threats on the outside.
The Case Against Smith Being Undervalued:
San Francisco squad is predominantly a running team, limiting his
scoring chances.
Verdict: Smith started last season
doing next to nothing, eviscerating hopes he might have the best
season of his career. As it turns out, he did, at least in the touchdown
department, by scoring 11 times in his final 13 games. That is a
scenario unlikely to repeat itself in the run-centric 49ers offense,
but Smith does give the team a downfield threat that Colin Kaepernick
and his huge arm are sure to take advantage of at least a few times.
Smith won’t crack the top-20 in fantasy scoring at receiver this
year, but he won’t rank outside of the top-45 either, which is where
fantasy owners have been drafting him.
The Case For Stills Being Undervalued:
The third-year pro led the Saints in receiving yards last season,
and has proven he can contribute even with plenty of talent around
him.
The Case Against Stills Being Undervalued:
Leaving New Orleans doesn’t help, and there is plenty of competition
in Miami’s reworked receiving corps.
Verdict: There are 60 wide receivers
being taken ahead of Stills on average, even though he’s amassed
nearly 1,600 yards and eight touchdowns in his two seasons in the
league. It hurts that he’ll be without Drew Brees and Sean Payton,
but there should be enough opportunities for Stills to contribute
to his fantasy owners in a way that outpaces his ADP.
The Case For Bryant Being Overvalued:
There is zero chance he’ll maintain his 3.25:1 catch-to-touchdown
ratio of last season.
The Case Against Bryant Being Overvalued:
He has every applicable physical tool and an opportunity to be the
Steelers’ No.2 wideout.
Verdict: Bryant played in Pittsburgh’s
final 10 games last year and turned heads with eight touchdowns
and 549 yards on only 26 receptions. It was somewhat boom-or-bust
for him though, because while he had four games with 16 or more
fantasy points, he also had four games with four or fewer points.
Bryant is certain to be a fantasy contributor this season, but on
average he’s the 21st wideout being drafted, early in the fifth
round. That’s too high, especially if the likes of Golden Tate and
Julian Edelman are still available.
The Case For Cruz Being Overvalued:
He’s coming off a serious injury and Odell Beckham Jr. is now the
team’s primary target.
The Case Against Cruz Being Overvalued:
He’s been very productive when healthy.
Verdict: Cruz became a star in 2011,
when he put up over 1,500 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. He
followed up that campaign with over 1,000 yards and 10 scores in
2012. But his touchdown catches dropped to four in 2013, and last
year he tore his patellar tendon. That opened the door for OBJ,
and everyone knows the rest. Now, Cruz will have to prove he’s healthy
while battling for targets with Rueben Randle and Larry Donnell,
so don’t expect 120 or more targets, which is what he was getting
in previous years.
The Case For Johnson Being Overvalued:
He now has to contend with the ball going to Adrian Peterson and
Mike Wallace, and simply hasn’t produced much in two seasons.
The Case Against Johnson Being Overvalued:
He’s a likely starter and has some big-play ability, with
a catch of 20+ yards in six of his 11 games last year.
Verdict: Johnson had 475 yards and
two scores on 31 catches in 2014, which are solid numbers for a
second-year pro. Still, those numbers weren’t even good enough
for the top-80 in fantasy scoring at receiver, and though Johnson’s
totals will likely improve, it’s difficult to see them getting
to a point which will justify him being a WR3, which is what he’s
being drafted as now. With the arrival of Wallace and return of
AP, Johnson’s role on offense isn’t likely to be great
enough to justify his ADP.
