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Kyle Smith | Archive | Email
Staff Writer


Fantasy Fact and Opinion - AFC
7/15/15


Editor's Note: References to player rankings are based on ESPN's scoring system.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: LeSean McCoy will help Sammy Watkins. Even with the brutal quarterback play last season from Buffalo, Watkins was 25th in fantasy scoring at the wide receiver position despite the fact he posted ten games with three or less catches. He should get better this year now that McCoy is in the mix. True, the Bills are still hoping for lightning in a bottle with their current crop of quarterbacks, but even with that issue and a run-first Rex Ryan as the team’s coach, Watkins is far too talented to see a drop in production.

Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill may not improve this season. The fourth-year quarterback has made steady progress in each season, and there’s a lot of hope that he’ll take another step this year. But of the five players he targeted most in 2014, four of them are gone. Relying on so many new faces is a lot to ask of any quarterback.

LeGarrette Blount

Blount won't win any PPR league awards but does have double-digit TD upside in the Pats offense.


New England Patriots: LeGarrette Blount produces when given the chance. The 250 lb. runner has never carved out a place for himself, which seems odd given his ability. Yet when the opportunity arises, Blount has always produced. He is averaging 4.6 YPC in his career, and in the three seasons in which he’s had at least 150 carries, Blount has averaged 5.0 YPC in two of those seasons.

New York Jets: Brandon Marshall is now a WR2. While still able to make plenty of plays, Marshall has come into a bad situation with the Jets having issues at quarterback. Marshall has never been a touchdown machine, scoring double-digit touchdowns only three times in his career, including twice in the last three seasons. Without Jay Cutler constantly winging it to him, Marshall is much less of a fantasy factor.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: Demaryius Thomas will be the league’s top fantasy wideout. This is not exactly a shocking prediction, and there’s reason for that. Thomas not only has the physical tools, but the opportunity as well. He had 184 targets last year and caught 111 of those balls, but just 11 went for scores. However, the Broncos no longer have TE Julius Thomas, so while Demaryius Thomas probably isn’t going to see more targets and could see a regression in his insane amount of redzone targets from a year ago (39), even a modest increase in his redzone efficiency will more than offset any opportunity decrease.

Kansas City Chiefs: Jeremy Maclin’s numbers will drop sharply. The Missouri product picked a very good time to put up the best numbers of his career, gaining over 1,300 yards with 10 touchdowns last season in Philadelphia. He signed with the Chiefs this offseason, which should mean far lesser numbers. Maclin went from a high-flying system in Philly to a Jamaal-Charles oriented one in K.C., and now plays with a quarterback in Alex Smith that has never seen a dump-off pass he didn’t love.

Oakland Raiders: Don’t be afraid of Derek Carr. The quarterback from Fresno State had a surprisingly good year in 2014, with 3,200 passing yards and 21 touchdowns to go with only 12 picks. He did all this without much of a running game and few real weapons in the passing game. Carr will now be able to throw to rookie Amari Cooper, the fourth overall draft pick who should make an immediate contribution. Carr shouldn’t be anyone’s QB1 just yet, but he will be in time.

San Diego Chargers: Melvin Gordon will be a top-10 running back. For three consecutive seasons a rookie has been among the top-10 in fantasy scoring at running back. Gordon is primed to make it four straight years. His situation is a good one, playing behind an established quarterback with veteran receivers to throw to and very little in the way of backfield competition.


NFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Justin Forsett was not a fluke. Forsett had a remarkable 2014 season, with over 1,200 rushing yards, a YPC average of 5.4 and eight scores. He has been a good runner his entire career, just in smaller doses. Forsett has had four seasons with a YPC average of at least 5.2 and is also a solid pass-catcher, making him a valuable fantasy commodity.

Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton is more productive than you think. Dalton was awful last season, and there is no denying that, but Dalton had nearly 4,300 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2013, placing him fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring that year. He ranked 12th in scoring in 2012 and even made the top-15 in scoring during his rookie season of 2011.

Cleveland Browns: Isaiah Crowell will be the team’s top fantasy performer. This wasn’t a very difficult choice, because there happens to be very little to choose from in Cleveland, unless anyone still believes in Dwayne Bowe. Last season, Crowell led the team in YPC average (4.1) and did the one thing that will make fantasy owners love you – score touchdowns (he led the team with eight).

Pittsburgh Steelers: Martavis Bryant will start the season as a WR2. Bryant bust onto the scene last year with six touchdowns in his first four games. He ended the regular season quietly, though he did score in Week 17 and in the wildcard game against Baltimore. Right now Bryant is thought of as a WR4 or WR3 at best, but look for his ADP to continue to rise as the season gets closer.


NFC South

Houston Texans: Arian Foster cannot be stopped. The Texans don’t have much of a quarterback. Some might say they don’t have one at all. That’s usually bad news for a team’s running back but Foster is seemingly a different breed, having amassed double-digit touchdowns in every season in which he’s played more than eight games (which is four of the last five). His injury history is concerning, but he remains a worthy top-10 pick.

Indianapolis Colts: Andre Johnson will be renewed. The veteran wideout had his least productive season in 2014 (not including seasons marred by injury). He had fewer than 1,000 receiving yards and just three touchdowns, making his fantasy prospects for 2015 seem dim. But now with Andrew Luck, fantasy owners should expect more. Much more. He’ll be the team’s number two wideout, but the Colts throw it early and often (661 pass attempts last season, most in the NFL), so there will be plenty of opportunities for Johnson to post better numbers than he did last year.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars have zero draftable fantasy players. That’s correct – there is not a single Jaguars player who owners in standard leagues should have on their roster. That includes Julius Thomas. If he can disappear from fantasy radars on a Peyton Manning-led team, he can certainly be invisible on one led by Blake Bortles.

Tennessee Titans: Pass on Marcus Mariota. The rookie from Oregon will probably be drafted way too high because he has the ability to rack up fantasy points with his legs. While it’s possible Mariota has a decent season, it seems unlikely. The Titans finished in the bottom third in most running game stats last season (scoring only 6 rushing TDs) and have an average receiving corps, which will make the rookie’s transition to the NFL that much more difficult.