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Steve Schwarz | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


A Super Bowl Myth?
1/18/18

It’s been a couple weeks since the fantasy playoffs ended for season-long leagues and I was bored sitting in front of my computer with nothing to think or write about except for the NFL draft which is still three months down the road. (OK, Iím also thinking about the upcoming fantasy baseball season, but thatís not until April as well).

So, here is a bit of information concerning Super Bowl LII.

Having the better quarterback in the Super Bowl does not automatically mean winning the Super Bowl. (Note: Iím an avid Eagles fan, so perhaps Iím simply searching for a reason to have hope).

With the ďFinal FourĒ quarterbacks consisting of one GOAT (Tom Brady) and three large question marks (Blake Bortles, Nick Foles and Case Keenum), it would seem that another New England Patriots Super Bowl victory is inevitable.

In fact, the statistics indicate otherwise. Since 2000, the winning Super Bowl team was the team whose quarterback had an inferior touchdown-to-interception ratio. In those 17 Super Bowls, 11-of-17 quarterbacks with the better TD-INT numbers during the season, lost the big game (see the box below).

Super Bowl QBs: TD-INT Ratio
Year Score Winning QB TD INT   Losing QB TD INT  
2016 NE 34 - ATL 28 Tom Brady 28 2 X Matt Ryan 38 7
2015 DEN 24 - CAR 10 Peyton Manning 9 17 Cam Newton 35 10 X
2014 NE 28 - SEA 24 Tom Brady 33 9 X Russell Wilson 20 7
2013 SEA 43 - DEN 8 Russell Wilson 26 9 Peyton Manning 55 10 X
2012 BAL 34 - SF 31 Joe Flacco 22 10 Colin Kaepernick 10 3 X
2011 NYG 21 - NE 17 Eli Manning 29 16 Tom Brady 39 12 X
2010 GB 31 - PIT 25 Aaron Rodgers 28 11 B. Roethlisberger 17 5 X
2009 NO 31 - IND 17 Drew Brees 34 11 X Peyton Manning 33 16
2008 PIT 27 - AZ 23 B. Roethlisberger 17 15 Kurt Warner 30 14 X
2007 NYG 17 - NE 14 Eli Manning 23 20 Tom Brady 50 8 X
2006 IND 29 - CHI 17 Peyton Manning 31 9 X Rex Grossman 23 20
2005 PIT 21 - SEA 10 B. Roethlisberger 17 9 Matt Hasselbeck 24 9 X
2004 NE 24 - PHI 21 Tom Brady 28 14 Donovan McNabb 31 8 X
2003 NE 32 - CAR 29 Tom Brady 23 12 X Jake Delhomme 19 16
2002 TB 48 - OAK 21 Brad Johnson 22 6 X Rich Gannon 26 10
2001 NE 20 - STL 17 Tom Brady 18 12 Kurt Warner 36 22 X
2000 BAL 34 - NYG 7 Trent Dilfer 12 11 Kerry Collins 22 13 X
Totals 6 11

Blake Bortles

Of the four quarterbacks left standing, Blake Borltes holds the worst TD-to-INT ratio (1.6 - 1) .


Some notable losses from elite quarterbacks include; Peyton Manningís record-breaking season in 2013 when he threw for 55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards, but lost to a young Russell Wilson. Or in 2007, when Tom Brady led the Patriots to an undefeated regular season, only to be upset by Eli Manning, who barely threw more touchdown passes than interceptions.

Below are the statistics for 2017.

2017 Playoff QBs
Team Quarterback TD INT
New England Tom Brady 32 8
Minnesota Case Keenum 22 7
Philadelphia Nick Foles 5 2
Jacksonville Blake Bortles 21 13

If this form holds true, perhaps Patriots fans might be wishing that Carson Wentz (33 TD – 7 INT in 13 games) or Sam Bradford (3 TD – 0 INT in two games) were healthy enough to start.


Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.