As I write this, I have the 2016 Olympic Games on the television
in the background. I’m a huge sports fan. Not just football, but
all sports. OK, synchronized swimming doesn’t count. But I’m loving
archery, handball and just about every other competition going
on in Rio de Janeiro.
There goes Michael Phelps winning gold medal No. 21 in the 4x200
freestyle relay. He’s a beast. He’s endured through five Olympic
Games and has been great in every one. There is no fantasy football
equivalent. Some guys have produced a season or two at a “Phelps”
level, but no one has done it for as long.
Maybe Drew
Brees with his five 5,000-yard seasons. More likely Jerry
Rice with 22,895 yards and 197 touchdowns, including 11 consecutive
1,000-yard seasons and nine double-digit touchdown totals during
that streak is the closest to Phelps.
In honor of the 207 countries competing in Brazil, I’ve created
my own list of gold, silver and bronze medal winners for the upcoming
NFL season.
The gold medal winner at each position is guaranteed to give you
elite fantasy numbers.
The silver medal goes to a guy not likely to be the best at his
position, but will give you great value for the price.
The bronze medal winner will be a lesser-known option (11th-round
or later) who could surprise fantasy owners by producing high
quality, starter-worthy results.
Agree? Disagree? Have a better choice, let
me know.
The Gold Standard: Drew Brees has thrown
at least 30 touchdowns in eight-straight seasons.
He’s the gold standard. Fantasy owners think he had a bad season
a year ago, and he did, for him. Still he finished with 4,878 passing
yards and 32 touchdowns. And that was while getting to know a largely
brand new receiving corps. Over his final ten games he averaged
300.7 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns for 25.4 FPts/G. The team
has added an elite pass-catching tight end (Coby
Fleener) and Brees should be comfortable with young receivers
Brandin
Cooks, Willie
Snead. He’s a steal at the end of the fifth round (ADP 58.3).
Cousins finished ninth last season with 359.1 fantasy points (22.4
FPts/G), yet he’s currently the 14th quarterback off the board
(ADP 113.5). The team spent a No. 1 pick on a wideout (Josh Doctson)
to add to their arsenal which includes DeSean
Jackson, Pierre
Garcon and tight end Jordan
Reed. With no verified running game, the Redskins will have
to pass to win. He also plays in a division with two of the three
worst pass defenses in football last season (Giants, Eagles) and
where the Cowboys defense is suspect.
After improving his stats for two seasons, Tannehill leveled off
in 2015 and many fantasy owners were left disappointed. A weak
offensive line has left its mark on the young quarterback in the
form of poor footwork and pocket presence, but under new head
coach Adam Gase things should improve. An up-tempo offense should
add more opportunities and Gase will reportedly feature the short-passing
game to compensate for the weak line play. As a “QB guru” Gase
should be able to “fix” Tannehill and I expect him to post career-best
totals. Given his 158.2 ADP (Rd 14) he could surprise as a low-end
starter.
It’s always exciting to think about the “new” toy you see in a
commercial, but most times it’s better to stick with the old reliable.
That shiny new Todd
Gurley or Ezekiel
Elliott looks good, but comes with question marks, while Peterson
“only” comes with a history of success. Over his 120-game career
A.P. is averaging 16.4 FPts/G and only once in nine seasons has
averaged less than 15 FPts/G. That’s consistency!
I’ve spoken highly of Miller before (“Miller might have been the
most underused talent in 2015 at Miami and still posted 1,269
yards from scrimmage, including 47 catches for 397 yards”) and
nothing has changed. Knowing that head coach Bill O’Brien loves
to run the ball when he has the “horses” and to protect his inexperienced
quarterback (Brock
Osweiler), Miller should see at least a 25% increase in touches.
That would equate to almost 2,100 yards from scrimmage.
Ryan
Mathews is injury prone and Darren
Sproles is too old to carry an offense for more than one game.
Which leaves the rookie, Smallwood, as the most logical early
down option if/when Mathews goes down. He knows how to run the
football (led the Big 12 in rushing in 2015), but he’ll need to
learn how to pass block. When the inevitable happens, Smallwood
could make for a nice option as a 15th-round flyer (179.6).
I talked about consistency with Peterson at the running back position,
but over the past three seasons no one has been more reliable
than Brown. He’s caught at least five balls in 46-of-48 games
and averaged 14.4 FPts/G. He’s Julio
Jones, but plays every game. He’s DeAndre
Hopkins with a better quarterback. He’s Odell
Beckham Jr. without the attitude. He’s elite.
Cooks took over as the Saints No. 1 option last season, but it
required some time to think along with Brees. The final ten games
of 2015 saw him post 777 yards and eight touchdowns. Third-year
receivers frequently see a jump in production and that could happen
for Cooks as he settles into the “Marques
Colston” role as the number one target on the team. Colston
was always a top receiver, but never THE top receiver in the league
because Brees likes to spread the work around to all his guys.
Still, 1,300 yards and 11 touchdowns is possible for the 14th
receiver off the board (26.7 ADP).
Smith’s fantasy outlook is a lot better than his ADP (105.1).
Probably because he’s the only quality receiver on the 49ers’
roster, he’ll almost certainly lead the team in receptions, yards
and touchdowns. He’s a good deep-ball receiver. And in a Chip
Kelly up-tempo offense, even with questionable quarterback play,
it should be enough to make him a valuable fantasy option.
This is an easier pick than predicting a Chinese Gold medal in
table tennis. Gronkowski is head and shoulders above any other
tight end, so I won’t bother to say any more.
Remember how productive Jimmy
Graham was with Brees? Fleener could be that guy. Like Graham,
Fleener isn’t a good run blocker, but when he goes to grab a football
out of the air he’s in the elite category. Sharing time with Dwayne
Allen, Fleener caught 54 passes for 491 yards and three scores
in a horrible Colts offense. Meanwhile, Ben
Watson caught 74 balls for 825 yards and six touchdowns last
season in New Orleans and he’s nowhere near the pass-catching
talent of Fleener. I think 900 yards and 10 touchdowns is possible
which would be excellent production for a sixth-round selection
(70.1 ADP).
The knife cuts both ways. Now that Fleener has headed south to
New Orleans, Allen is free to grab the majority of the work in
Indianapolis. Indy targeted their tight ends 128 times in 2015
and 168 times the previous season. Given such a large workload,
if Allen (143.5 ADP, Round 12) can stay healthy, he could easily
produce TE1 value.
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.
