QB Daunte Culpepper, MIA
Since returning to the Sunshine State in March, attitudes have been upbeat and positive regarding Culpepper. Fans have been supportive, and ticket and jersey sales are booming. Nick Saban and the Dolphins are ecstatic to have a strong, mobile, Pro Bowl-caliber talent under center—for just a second round pick. Wide receiver Chris Chambers has even been quoted as saying that Culpepper throws the best ball he has ever seen, and called him an elite quarterback.

Obviously, the most glaring concern when considering an injured player in fantasy football is when exactly he will return and what his performance will be like. During recent mini-camps, Culpepper’s knee has not hindered his ability to drop back, pounce on a loose football, or even scramble. As of right now, it is reported that Culpepper is ahead of schedule in his rehab, and although there is no timetable, his goal is to start the preseason opener on August 12th.

According to doctors, a torn ACL normally takes 10-18 months to fully heal, based on the recovery periods of those who have suffered both ACL and MCL tears. A jog into the past will show the chances of Culpepper returning on time for the regular season and having a successful season. Culpepper will have had 10 months to recuperate after his knee exploded in October. Here is a glance at previous ACL injuries, the length of recovery time, and their resulting productivity.

The 2005 season saw a horrific run on ACL injuries with Javon Walker, Carson Palmer, Deuce McAllister, and Daunte Culpepper among those dropping like flies. This chart gives an idea of the recovery time of such an injury. Note that all except McGahee were able to return for the season following the injury. Also, the recovery time given is from the date of the injury to the next game the player was able to participate in, not necessarily when the player became fully healed. The average length of recovery for players injured during the NFL season (as is the case for Culpepper, Deuce McAllister, and Javon Walker) is roughly 11 months.

Although Mike Mularkey is the new offensive coordinator in Miami, Culpepper conveniently arrives in an offensive scheme previously installed by Scott Linehan. Linehan was the offensive coordinator at Minnesota two years ago when Culpepper had the best production of his career. The transition should be smooth with Chambers, who has similar skills to Randy Moss. Culpepper will even have Kelly Campbell, whom he has connected with 57 times for 1062 yards and 8 touchdowns in Minnesota from 2002-2005. In addition, a solid run game can be expected to take a considerable amount of pressure off of Culpepper in his new hometown.

My Take: Although he will not go berserk and throw for 4717 yards and 39 tds as in 2004, I think Culpepper will have a great year. Miami has great depth at wide receiver, including Pro Bowler Chris Chambers, a solid number two in Marty Booker, and former Viking Kelly Campbell. They also sport two rookies brought in through the draft (Derek Hagan, Arizona State and Devin Aromashodu, Auburn). Second-year back Ronnie Brown caught 32 passes for 232 yards out of the backfield last season, and figures to become an even bigger part of the offense without Ricky Williams. Culpepper will not be protected by the most talented offensive line, but line coach Hudson Houck is among the best in the business. Houck will continue to make the most of the young front line’s potential. Although the trend in the chart above shows a decrease in production from players the year after their ACL injury, there were a few cases where a player had equal or better stats upon returning. That’s what I expect out of Culpepper, mainly because he will be surrounded by a lot of talent on offense.

If fully healthy and starting all 16 games, Culpepper has all the tools to be a top 5 QB this year. The average stats among the elite 5 passers last year were 3920.6 yards and 26.8 tds. After his knee catastrophe last season, Culpepper might be more hesitant to take off under pressure. This could lead to a slight drop in rushing yards from him this year, but it might mean more passing yards are in store. Expect C-Pepp to put up numbers around 3700-3900 passing yards, 25-30 passing tds, 10-15 ints, 300 rushing yards, and 3 rushing tds.

RB Deuce McAllister, NO
With the arrival of almighty Reggie Bush, McAllister is forced into the role of the red headed stepchild. Bush will be viewed as the new star running back in New Orleans, and figures to replace McAllister as the starter. Its likely Bush will at least take half of Deuce’s carries during the next few seasons.

Since rushing for 1641 yards in 2003, McAllister has been riddled with injuries, frustrating fantasy owners everywhere. Despite being only 27 (3 years younger than the age running backs supposedly go down the drain), he has only played in 19 games the last two seasons. Remarkably, McAllister’s fantasy production has gone downhill every year since becoming a regular starter in 2002.

The Saints lost young Pro Bowl center LeCharles Bentley, which could result in a less effective inside running game. On the other side of the coin, the addition of Reggie Bush might make up for this loss in two ways. First of all, sharing carries with Bush will create fewer opportunities for injury, giving McAllister a chance for a complete, and solid season. Secondly, Bush will present the Saints with lightning to complement McAllister’s thunder. The Bush-McAllister one-two punch could possibly have similar if not greater success than Atlanta’s duo of Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett.

Since McAllister has had 9 months to rehab his torn ACL, he should be ready to go by the time training camp rolls around. However, a look back at the table showing past players’ recovery process after an ACL injury illustrates that McAllister will be returning to the field much sooner than most and even so, the expected stats during a recovery year aren’t as good.

My Take: McAllister’s career has turned into an absolute debacle the last two years. While the arrival of Reggie Bush will help him in various ways, he will also lose important carries that will greatly depreciate his fantasy value. As long as he puts on a Saints jersey, I don’t think he will ever rush for more than 1200 yards in a season. Granted, the offense as a whole should see vast improvement with Drew Brees at the helm, but the RB position is saturated. Michael Bennett is another back that could see work this year if not traded before Opening Day. McAllister is a very talented back, but I foresee a year from him that will be classified as only “decent.”

All in all, McAllister is no longer an elite back and fantasy owners should be cautious when considering him. The Saints will most likely give McAllister close to 250 carries, and if he maintains his career YPC average of 4.3, then that amount to 1075 yards. When the season is finally over, Deuce should finish with about 900-1200 rushing yards, 8-10 rushing tds, 250 yards receiving, and 2 tds receiving.

RB Ahman Green, GB
If the running back situation was a disaster in Green Bay last year, things will be even fuzzier this year. After Samkon Gado became the hero of an absolutely miserable team last November, questions arose about his future with the Cheese Heads. The Packers currently have 7 running backs on their roster (including two fullbacks), so 2006 looks bleak for 29 year-old Ahman Green.

Since setting the stat books on fire with 1883 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2003, Green has seen a drastic plummet in production. Playing in only 20 games in the last two seasons, Green has failed to match the total yards and total tds he recorded in one season three years ago.

The most apparent reason for the lack of production on the ground in Green Bay has been the offensive line. Subtracting anchors Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle from the mix proved costly for the entire offense. Not to mention the countless injuries that almost forced Mike Sherman to throw on the pads and play guard. Drafting lineman Daryn Colledge (Boise State) and Jason Spitz (Louisville) should pack depth along a depleted five-man wall.

My Take: Even a blind man could see that Green will never reach his 1883-yard performance again, and his career in general is in serious jeopardy. There is a logjam at RB in Green Bay that will cause Green to actually fight for a roster spot with Najeh Davenport. Personally, I believe he will be in the Packers backfield next year, but his production will be chopped down. The emergence of Gado will leave only a sliver of room for a successful year from Green. Coming off of an unusual and brutal injury (torn thigh tendon), it will be a small miracle if Green is able to reach 1000 yards this year. With doubts about whether or not he will be able to return for training camp, it will take a great deal of luck to get even 50% of the carries this season.

In the end, I think Green is a much bigger offensive threat (if healthy) than Najeh Davenport, so making the final roster shouldn’t be a huge problem. At best, Green will split carries with Gado, so I expect him to receive about 150-200 carries. He will most likely not maintain his career of 4.6 YPC; a 4.2 average might be more reasonable. This will give him 630-840 yards. In 8 NFL seasons, Green has only reached the 10 rushing touchdown mark twice, so I don’t think he will reach it this year in a backup role. Expect him to be more in the range of 4-8 rushing scores. Throughout his career with the screen-loving Packers, Green has averaged roughly 20 receiving yards a game. While he may not keep pace on those numbers again, it’s fair to expect him to tack on about 250 more receiving yards and about 3 tds through the air.

WR Javon Walker, DEN
Javon Walker, as it would appear, is among the happiest players in the NFL right now. He has managed to escape the accusations in Green Bay that he is a selfish player. Walker believes he is now a part of a more successful team and he has gotten the money he believed he deserves. In an abrupt resolution to the bitter scuffle between the Walker and the Packers, the disgruntled wideout got the trade he wanted this off-season, and the green and yellow faithful rid themselves of a bad headache. During the heat of the NFL draft in April, a deal was completed and Walker was sent packing for the Denver Broncos in exchange for a second round pick—number 37 overall.

Now with a new team and a fresh start, Walker’s spirits are a mile high. He continues to insist that he will be ready to go for the first day of Broncos’ training camp on July 28. Although his participation in team mini-camps has been limited, the team is pleased with Walker’s rate of rehab and is excited to see him on the field. Walker seems to be one of the final missing pieces on an already dynamic and balanced Bronco offense. A solid ground game can always be expected of a Mike Shanahan offense, so opposing defenses won’t be able to focus their entire efforts on Walker. Walker’s speed and leaping ability will provide an excellent complement to the polished route running of Rod Smith. Based on the age of Smith and the less-than-stellar play of 5th year receiver Ashley Lelie (who is skipping mandatory team practices and demanding a trade), Walker has a very feasible chance to be the best and most productive receiver in Denver this year.

My Take: I like how Walker fits with the Broncos’ offense. They use the run to set up the pass and the wide receivers have plenty of opportunities for big plays. In 2004, the Broncos had two wideouts eclipse the 1000-yard mark, and Ashley Lelie led all NFL receivers with a 20.1 yard-per-catch average. Another factor that foreshadows success for Walker is the fact that he is now in a division where pass defense is sub-par to say the least. Out of three divisional foes, the highest ranked pass defense last season was held by Oakland at number 18. San Diego and Kansas City had awful pass defenses, ranking 28th and 30th in the entire league.

All things considered, this should be another standout year for Walker. I truly believe that he will take full advantage of his fresh start this year and land himself another February plane ticket to Honolulu. His stats should be comparable to his breakout 2004 campaign, so look for him to have around 1100-1400 yards and 10-12 tds.

TE Kellen Winslow, CLE
To say that Winslow’s career to this point has been a nightmare might actually be toning it down a bit. On-field and off-field injuries have hampered the career of the young standout tight end from “Da U.” Over two seasons (in which he has only played in two games), Winslow has accumulated only 50 yards on 5 catches and has yet to snag his first career touchdown. Being in the proverbial “shed” for two years, Winslow has obviously collected rust and lost a bit of his football stamina. He has reportedly looked very good in mini-camps however, and is said to be running crisp routes with good speed. The goal for the Browns and Winslow is for him to be ready for the beginning of training camp July 26.

Having played in only 2 games out of 32 the last two years and being lost to injuries both times, it is tremendously difficult to project any kind of numbers for the 2006 season. Winslow has the benefit of returning to a rapidly improving Cleveland team, who appear to be crawling out of the NFL basement. The off-season additions of center LeCharles Bentley, receiver Joe Jurevicius, and offensive tackle Kevin Shaffer will aid the offense incredibly. Bright young receiver Braylon Edwards and running back Reuben Droughns combine with Winslow to make what is shaping up to be an explosive attack.

My Take: I do not have very high expectations for Winslow in what will be practically his rookie season. He has tremendous talent and potential, but I don’t think we will see it this year. Winslow will be a serviceable tight end this year that might make the highlight reels once every couple games for a spectacular play. He is a true risk/reward player. Fantasy owners should be wary about when to draft Winslow, but he could have good sleeper value. The average number of receiving yards collected by all starting tight ends last year was 472.6 and the average amount of tds was 3.1. I think Winslow will finish about middle of the pack as tight ends go, so I expect him to produce around 500 receiving yards and 5 receiving tds.

QB Donovan McNabb, PHI
The storm that was T.O. has finally blown over Philadelphia, and things seem to be settling back to normal. The Eagles are the Eagles again, not the circus team that has existed since their Super Bowl disaster against New England. Donovan McNabb loses a great threat at WR, but discarding the team headache was what mattered most.

Andy Reid has made a valiant effort this off-season to attempt to surround his quarterback with quality players on offense. An obvious goal heading into the NFL Draft was to improve depth and talent along the line, which surrendered 19 McNabb poundings in 9 games. Selecting OT Winston Justice (USC) and mammoth, G Max Jean-Gilles (Georgia) will aid in cutting down sacks in ’06, as both players should see significant playing time. Wide receivers Jason Avant (Michigan) and Jeremy Bloom (Colorado) give the Eagles 9 receivers, so there will be plenty of options for Terrell Owens’ replacement.

The biggest question mark will be a rushing attack that ranked 28th in the league last year. Versatile Brian Westbrook and 2nd year back Ryan Moats will lead a unit that must improve in order for McNabb to bounce back nicely. McNabb has been working hard in the off-season to make sure that the same injury he sustained last year doesn’t occur again. It has even been reported that he might be working too hard to become stronger. This would be cause for alarm because McNabb has admitted that he had tweaked his midsection in training camp last year, and it only got worse throughout the year. As of right now, McNabb looks good and should not be held back during team practices. However, it will be a good idea to keep an eye on McNabb during training camp and preseason games because it will be a good indicator of whether he will be ready to go for the regular season.

My Take: Andy Reid may not be the best play-caller or time-manager, but he is a great coach. I like what he’s done as far as making sure McNabb will be protected and has solid weapons around him. Adding more depth and talent to the O-line will seriously help McNabb’s passing numbers. However, losing T.O. means you should subtract a few touchdowns and a few hundred yards from McNabb in ’06. It may not have been pretty off the field, but the McNabb-Owens duo was one of the best in the league. Overall, I expect McNabb to put up numbers consistent with previous years. His average stats from seasons in which he started at least 15 games are going to be my prediction for his numbers this season: 3400 passing yards, 23 passing tds, 11 ints, 400 rushing yards, and 3 rushing tds.

RB Priest Holmes, KC
Priest has been the man in K.C. for several seasons, but things change. There is a new man in town and his name is Larry Johnson. It appears as if Holmes already has one foot out the door after such a spectacular career, and will most likely never see a 1000-yard season again. Holmes’ record setting pace for the Chiefs has been marred by his pesky injuries. Throughout a ten-year career, Holmes has only had two complete seasons. In both of those years (2001 and 2003) he recorded over 1400 yards. He has not had 100 yards rushing in a game since October 31, 2004. Playing in only 15 games the last two seasons, Holmes is clearly near the end of the line. The woes for Holmes follow him into this season. As of June 30th, his spinal doctor still hasn’t cleared him for contact. Holmes has remained upbeat and positive, and says he wants to keep playing because he feels great.

Since the concern of injuries is a given, a fresh concern for fantasy owners is how involved Holmes will be in the Larry Johnson-run offense if he does come back. The explosion of LJ for 1750 yards and 20 tds will no doubt steal an extremely large chunk of the carries away from Holmes in ’06. When healthy, Holmes has been one of the most reliable backs in history, fumbling only 16 times in 1734 attempts, and maintaining a career 4.6 YPC average. Holmes would most likely share carries with Johnson, but not even close to the 50-50 split that it was last year.

My Take: Although Holmes will serve in a backup role this season if he is able to return, the bottom line is that it is still Priest Holmes we’re talking about and he is still running behind perhaps the best offensive line in football. New head coach Herman Edwards will bring a run-heavy based offense, allowing more opportunities for Holmes. If he can average 4 yards a carry, he will need a mere 8 carries a game to reach 500 yards rushing on the year, a successful year for him in my book. I also see him adding 5 rushing tds, 200 yards receiving, and up to 3 tds through the air.

QB Chad Pennington, NYJ
What was once a career with a dazzling future has quickly become a nightmare for Chad Pennington. It’s one thing to have injuries, but to tear the joint that is needed most for a quarterback more than once is a career-jeopardizing accident. Pennington showed tremendous promise in the first year he became a regular starter in 2002. In 15 games that year he threw for 3120 yards, 22 tds, and only 6 picks while boasting a 104.2 rating. Then the crumbling of his career began. Injuries kept him out of the Jets’ first 6 games in 2003, and the team was a mere 2-4 by the time he was able to put the pads on again. The hole appeared to be too big already, as New York’s young star could only lead the team to a 6-10 record. The past three seasons, Pennington’s lack of durability has caused him to miss 22 games. In those 22 games, the Jets are a pathetic 7-15 without him, so his presence is truly missed.

After tearing his rotator cuff for the first time, it was easy to see that Pennington was missing a serious bit of arm strength. According to doctors, full recovery of a torn rotator cuff can take four to six months. It has been nearly ten months since Pennington’s injury, but this is the second rotator cuff injury of his career. That is something that fantasy owners must be wary of when spotting his name on draft boards. The biggest concern is not whether he will start ahead of rookie Kellen Clemens (Oregon) or Patrick Ramsey, but how he will perform if the nod does go his way. Just because he is the starter in Week 1 doesn’t mean he won’t be holding a clipboard on the bench by Week 5. New head coach Eric Mangini will waste no time in replacing Pennington if it is obvious that his ability has faltered. As of now, reports say that Pennington has been sharp in two-minute drills at practices, but all QB’s are being given equal opportunity to start entering training camp.

The New York Jets probably couldn’t have done any better this off-season as far as making sure that whoever is playing QB will be protected. The Jets used both of their first-round draft picks on offensive lineman, who both figure to be penciled in as starters for Opening Day. Tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson (Virginia) and center Nick Mangold (Ohio State) were both regarded as the best at their positions entering the draft.The Jets also added veterans Trey Teague (center) and Anthony Clement (tackle) for precious depth behind the projected starters.

My Take: After watching the way some of Pennington’s passes hung in the air last year before he tore his rotator cuff for the second time, I don’t think I will bother taking a chance on him in my fantasy league(s) this season. I will be shocked if he can throw a ball twenty yards after re-injuring his throwing arm. It’s not even guaranteed that he will start, either, as the QB situation in New York is a mess. I also can’t see much support coming from the ground, since Curtis Martin is nearing the end of the line. The offensive line play will probably be the lone bright spot on offense, but it won’t help much if the Jets can’t find a decent quarterback. If Pennington does in fact get the start, he obviously will be a liability for injury. Even if can find some way to stay healthy all year, however, expect a dip in production from previous years. Pennington will probably put up numbers around 3000 passing yards, 15-20 tds, 12-15 ints, and perhaps one rushing score.

QB Drew Brees, NO
After watching Drew Brees’ coming-out party the last two seasons, it will be interesting to see if he can bring his former Pro Bowl play to a team that doesn’t look quite as promising as San Diego. Brees will try to turn around an offense that has been going the wrong way the last few years. The 11th-ranked offense in 2003 dropped to 15th-best in 2004 and then the 20th-best last year. It appears as if the hurricane that ravaged the city of New Orleans also took away the Saints’ star power. New Orleans boasted a top-5 running back in 2003 (Deuce McAllister), a top-5 receiver in 2004 (Joe Horn), but they fell out of the elite last season. Brees will have to do without his top-notch tight end Antonio Gates this year, and the same is true for the proven prowess of LaDainian Tomlinson.

The base that Brees will be given to build on will be a ground game that should be fairly successful with McAllister and the electric Reggie Bush (USC). The presence of these two backs alone should be enough to keep a considerable amount of pressure off Brees. The biggest concern will be the part of the offense that Brees will be in charge of the passing game. Free agent acquisition Mark Campbell and returning starter Zachary Hilton will lead an unimpressive group of tight ends that collectively only managed 597 yards on 54 catches for the Saints last season. Wide receiver Joe Horn will begin this season at the age of 34, and trying to bounce back form an awful 2005 campaign. A single bright spot of the offense last year was the play of young receiver Donte’ Stallworth. Stallworth (25) is coming off his best season as a pro in which he hauled in 70 catches for 945 yards and 7 tds. If his breakout year carries over into this season and Joe Horn can stay healthy, then Brees will have two fairly good weapons through the air in 2006.

Drew Brees’ rehab is coming along nicely, as stated by Brees himself. He claims to feel “A thousand percent better” and can do “Almost anything” that he was able to do before his arm injury. While he is not completely healthy yet, he should be ready to go for training camp in a few weeks. By the time training camp begins, Brees will have had 3 months more than the necessary 4 months required for the recovery of a torn labrum.

My Take: I think it will be fun to watch Brees this year on a team that includes former pro bowler Joe Horn, former pro bowler Deuce McAllister, and college standout Reggie Bush. Taking into account the quarterbacks that made the Pro Bowl for the NFC last year, I expect Brees to have a borderline, Pro Bowl-quality season. He will definitely miss Antonio Gates at the tight end position, but there will be plenty of other viable options on the Saints offense. Brees will probably be slightly more productive than Aaron Brooks was with the same offense, so I expect him to put up numbers around 3600 passing yards, 25 passing tds, 12 passing ints, and a rushing td or two.

QB Byron Leftwich, JAX
There is good news and there is bad news when analyzing Byron Leftwich last year. The good news is that he was on pace to have the best year of his career in every statistical category except completion percentage. The bad news is that he took a pounding again and failed to play a complete 16 game season. Among quarterbacks that started at least 10 games last year, Leftwich had the best TD-INT ratio (3:1). This season, tds should be even more plentiful with the drafting of 6’6” TE Marcedes Lewis (UCLA) and speedy RB Maurice Drew (UCLA). The retirement of veteran Jimmy Smith shouldn’t hurt the Jags at all, as the path is now cleared for former 1st round picks Matt Jones and Reggie Williams to step up and become regular contributors. While the running game isn’t what it once was with Fred Taylor, there could still be room for success with a split of carries between Taylor, Drew, and young fullback Greg Jones (who rushed for over 500 yards last season).

Injuries seemed to trash Leftwich’s season every year, and the offensive line play was mostly to blame. In the off-season, Jacksonville added tackles Stockar McDougle and Mike Williams to provide depth and possibly upgrade the line. The Jaguars made a questionable decision to not draft any offensive lineman, so it will be interesting to see if Williams and McDougle will be enough to keep Leftwich from getting crushed which happened 23 times in 11 games last year.

My Take: If Leftwich can stay on his feet and ward off the whispers about backup David Garrard being the better QB, he should have a breakout year. Support from the ground game might be lacking, but Leftwich has some serious weapons around him at receiver. Former 1st round pick Reggie Williams is a candidate for the “3rd Year WR Explosion” and will be expected to have an awesome year. The Jags have gone mostly offense in the last few drafts, and this will be the year it all pays off. If everything goes according to plan, look for Leftwich to be near the top of the NFL with around 3800 passing yards, 25 passing tds, 10 ints, 100-200 rushing yards, and 3 rushing tds.