* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For quarterbacks, a player needs to be a
realistic threat for 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards
to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional scarcity at
the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Patient in the pocket but turns into an escape artist when
the offensive line springs a leak; extends plays as well as any
quarterback prospect in recent memory.
Seems as if he can simultaneously keep his eyes downfield
AND feel where he needs to run should a throwing opportunity not
present itself.
Generates incredible torque while throwing against his body;
comfortable and very adept at throwing from just about every arm
angle.
Exceptional 46:1 TD-to-INT ratio in the red zone at USC
highlights how much he values the ball as a passer.
Routinely finds his secondary receivers.
High level of play in 2023 barely dropped off despite the
departure of Jordan Addison.
Negatives
Relied almost entirely on "playground football."
In each of his two seasons at USC, Williams needed an average
of at least 3.19 seconds to throw the ball on any drop-back and
2.9 seconds to throw on any pass attempt. (Most NFL teams want/need
their quarterbacks to get the ball out of their hands in less than
2.5 seconds.)
Ball security was severely lacking throughout his college
career (33 career fumbles) - many of which were likely a product
of his improvisation.
Trusts his athleticism too much at times in hopes he can
buy time for his receivers.
Regularly walks a fine line between indifference and ignorance
of pressure coming off the edge; invites chaos.
Well-built but a bit on the short side (6-1).
Bottom Line
Williams enters the league with as much fanfare as any quarterback
since at least Trevor Lawrence and perhaps as much as Andrew Luck.
Perhaps no prospect in recent memory has created something out
of nothing more often than Williams, which is a bit of a mixed
blessing. On one hand, defenses will eventually crack as the 2022
Heisman Trophy winner buys time play after play by seemingly working
every inch of the pocket. If that does not do the trick, Williams
is more than capable of breaking off a chunk run if the defense
loses its rush integrity. While he is not a player in the Josh Allen mold who can (or should) lead his team in rushing, he runs
well and typically converts in short-yardage situations. Last
but not least, he makes special throws that only a handful of
people on the planet can make.
On the other hand, Williams created offense off-script so often
throughout his college career that his ability to win inside the
pocket consistently at the next level is a question mark. There
should be at least some concern if he can operate within the structure
of a play call because he so infrequently threw the ball on time
(when he reaches the top of his drop-back). Worse yet, there is
a history of (USC HC) Lincoln Riley's quarterbacks waiting to
see receivers break wide open (as opposed to anticipating them
and throwing into open windows) - something that would explain
why Williams felt the need to buy time so often. Williams showed
great poise and awareness most of the time, but outside pressure
- specifically from cornerbacks or safeties - typically went unnoticed
until it was too late. The Washington, D.C. native was also far
too lackadaisical in his efforts to protect the ball in chaotic
situations. Williams could also do a better job of aligning his
feet with his throw more often. He has the arm strength to get
away with it in college, but it could get him in trouble in the
NFL.
Williams showed flashes of being a more refined pocket passer
than most college prospects on the rare occasion he was not
trying to buy time or evade pressure. For a quarterback who
spent virtually his entire college career in a spread attack
led by either Riley or Kliff Kingsbury, that alone is an impressive
feat. (Far too many college quarterbacks nowadays are too reliant
on bubble/tunnel screens and/or their first read getting open
right away.) Williams' gaudy 93:14 touchdown-to-interception
ratio (no more than five interceptions in any of his three seasons)
speaks to his ability to make good decisions and keep the ball
out of harm's way as a passer. The arm strength, ability to
release the ball from multiple angles and throw across his body
are similar to Mahomes, although a huge difference between the
two is that Mahomes has always been able to operate well within
the structure of a play as well. That last part will remain
a mystery with Williams until he proves otherwise. The fear
is that Williams has already shown what he is - an improvisational
player - who needs to rely on his athleticism and struggles
to function in a timing-based offense, which was one of the
major reasons Manziel failed to the degree he did. Williams
will almost certainly be more Prescott than Manziel, but it
should not be considered a lock that he ends up being the best
quarterback in his class. For now, Williams' most reasonable
comp is a young Prescott, although his upside is much higher.
He can reach that upside if his new team can convince him to
improvise on more of a need-to basis.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
