One of fantasy football's great traditions is the regular asking
of the following question: "Is (insert name here) even playing?"
Barring injury or complete ineffectiveness, most of the players
at the top of the tables in this article are not likely to have
that question asked about them very often. But most successful
fantasy football owners aren't overly concerned about whether
the stars are playing (that should be a given), but rather what
players are on the rise and which ones aren't. Similarly, is a
certain player's recent production a bit of a fluke or possibly
sustainable?
One of the easiest ways to answer these questions and increase
our "hit rate" is by tracking the percentage of the
snaps they are playing and whether those percentages will allow
for sustainable production. It also is beneficial to identify
players who have seen their playing time increase dramatically
over the last month or so. It is that last group of players I
want to focus on this week at each position.
***Cutoff to qualify for the list was 50 percent of team's
snaps for the season. Notable exceptions such as Evan Engram,
Greg Olsen and Jack Doyle were included for obvious reasons.
Any questions about Jack Doyle needing to settle for a secondary
role behind Eric Ebron got answered in his first game back from
a five-week layoff in Week 8. After a four-week run of playing
over 70 percent of the snaps and a five-week stretch of at least
50 percent, Ebron played a season-low 22 percent of the time last
week. Ebron's uncanny ability to find the end zone has been his
saving grace in all three of the games he's played with Doyle
active, but regression will come soon. If Doyle can even sniff
the kind of touchdown rate Ebron has enjoyed so far while keeping
his regular role as Andrew Luck's second-favorite target, he has
a chance to give his owners a player capable of going toe-to-toe
with the likes of Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce down the stretch.
After playing 73 percent of the snaps in his first game back,
it would be a shock if he didn't go back to the 90-percent level
he enjoyed prior to his hip injury.
One player that litters about half of my fantasy rosters is Vance McDonald. His fantasy owners have every right to be frustrated
with his inconsistent playing time when the sixth-year pro has
caught 23 of his 28 targets and often been a tackle-breaking,
yard-after-catch machine. McDonald's playing time was cut almost
in half in Pittsburgh's first game after the bye in Week 8 after
three straight games over 60 percent, suggesting to me McDonald
may not be as useful in any game in which Pittsburgh is able to
enjoy positive game script throughout. This stands to reason as
Jesse James is considered a better run blocker, so for any owner
as heavily invested in McDonald as I am, this may be something
to remember going forward.
Perhaps one of the most Raider things to do is trade away its
top receiver (Amari Cooper) and then give their top remaining
threat (Jared Cook) less playing time than he's had all season.
He didn't have any problem coming through for his fantasy owners
in Week 8, but this may be something we need to monitor. Cook
would be hard-pressed to come through with more 4-74-1 lines on
five targets if he's playing 62 percent of the snaps moving forward
(as opposed to the high 80s and low 90s, where he spent most of
his first six games).
Ben Watson was a tight end sleeper entering the season. He played
80-plus percent of the snaps in the first two games before essentially
splitting his duties with Josh Hill over the next four. Watson
saw yet another significant drop in his snaps in Week 8. Despite
his strong showing in Week 7 (6-43-1), more games of playing 26
percent of the snaps will result in more of the bagels he settled
for in Week 8. Even at a position where owners are struggling
to come up with viable alternatives each week, owners don't need
to waste roster spots on players playing a quarter of the game.
Although his increase in playing time coincided with the absence
of Ryan Griffin, it is clear who Houston believes is his backup.
Jordan Thomas played 86 and 89 percent of the snaps, respectively,
in Week 7 and Week 8. While his matchup provided one huge game
(two touchdowns against Miami last week) and a dud in the other,
talented players attached to good quarterbacks in good offenses
are often a good place to start when looking for sleeper tight
ends.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.