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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Put Me In, Coach: TEs
All Out Blitz: Volume 143
11/1/18
RBs | WRs | TEs

One of fantasy football's great traditions is the regular asking of the following question: "Is (insert name here) even playing?"

Barring injury or complete ineffectiveness, most of the players at the top of the tables in this article are not likely to have that question asked about them very often. But most successful fantasy football owners aren't overly concerned about whether the stars are playing (that should be a given), but rather what players are on the rise and which ones aren't. Similarly, is a certain player's recent production a bit of a fluke or possibly sustainable?

One of the easiest ways to answer these questions and increase our "hit rate" is by tracking the percentage of the snaps they are playing and whether those percentages will allow for sustainable production. It also is beneficial to identify players who have seen their playing time increase dramatically over the last month or so. It is that last group of players I want to focus on this week at each position.

 Tight End Snap Percentages by Week
Player Tm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Zach Ertz PHI 97% 94% 99% 97% 97% 100% 97% 92%
Travis Kelce KC 100% 98% 93% 94% 94% 94% 86% 95%
Geoff Swaim DAL 91% 94% 93% 93% 95% 90% 71%
Kyle Rudolph MIN 83% 86% 97% 81% 87% 85% 81% 86%
Jared Cook OAK 91% 78% 82% 83% 90% 85% 62%
George Kittle SF 77% 78% 79% 83% 89% 93% 90% 91%
David Njoku CLE 88% 74% 81% 84% 90% 81% 84% 84%
Jimmy Graham GB 98% 75% 93% 71% 81% 79% 88%
Trey Burton CHI 87% 86% 85% 74% 73% 85% 73%
Austin Hooper ATL 84% 84% 85% 81% 76% 81%
Jonnu Smith TEN 58% 100% 92% 97% 78% 57% 79%
Rob Gronkowski NE 100% 95% 100% 67% 91% 99% 89%
Tyler Higbee LAR 95% 89% 75% 62% 80% 74% 69% 79%
Jeff Heuerman DEN 81% 62% 60% 88% 69% 88% 81% 86%
C.J. Uzomah CIN 65% 49% 54% 70% 92% 92% 97% 97%
Ricky Seals-Jones ARI 92% 98% 84% 65% 67% 67% 44% 73%
Virgil Green LAC 54% 74% 63% 74% 72% 80% 73%
Charles Clay BUF 62% 69% 60% 74% 75% 71% 70% 64%
Ryan Griffin HOU 85% 78% 76% 69% 71% 84%
Eric Ebron IND 45% 28% 88% 83% 71% 71% 50% 22%
Ben Watson NO 80% 82% 57% 53% 55% 49% 26%
Jordan Reed WAS 52% 54% 66% 64% 67% 68% 78%
Jesse James PIT 82% 55% 50% 44% 59% 70% 56%
O.J. Howard TB 65% 79% 66% 24% 52% 66% 60%
Josh Hill NO 38% 59% 62% 61% 58% 62% 64%
Nick Boyle BAL 68% 51% 53% 73% 45% 63% 47% 46%
Rhett Ellison NYG 41% 35% 87% 87% 98% 40%
Nick Vannett SEA 61% 39% 51% 82% 83% 49%
Ian Thomas CAR 55% 96% 78% 69% 2% 12%
Vance McDonald PIT 45% 48% 62% 61% 70% 38%
Jordan Thomas HOU 19% 36% 22% 31% 36% 34% 86% 89%
Evan Engram NYG 90% 88% 21% 89%
Greg Olsen CAR 24% 98% 100% 97%
Jack Doyle IND 94% 97% 73%

***Cutoff to qualify for the list was 50 percent of team's snaps for the season. Notable exceptions such as Evan Engram, Greg Olsen and Jack Doyle were included for obvious reasons.

Any questions about Jack Doyle needing to settle for a secondary role behind Eric Ebron got answered in his first game back from a five-week layoff in Week 8. After a four-week run of playing over 70 percent of the snaps and a five-week stretch of at least 50 percent, Ebron played a season-low 22 percent of the time last week. Ebron's uncanny ability to find the end zone has been his saving grace in all three of the games he's played with Doyle active, but regression will come soon. If Doyle can even sniff the kind of touchdown rate Ebron has enjoyed so far while keeping his regular role as Andrew Luck's second-favorite target, he has a chance to give his owners a player capable of going toe-to-toe with the likes of Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce down the stretch. After playing 73 percent of the snaps in his first game back, it would be a shock if he didn't go back to the 90-percent level he enjoyed prior to his hip injury.

One player that litters about half of my fantasy rosters is Vance McDonald. His fantasy owners have every right to be frustrated with his inconsistent playing time when the sixth-year pro has caught 23 of his 28 targets and often been a tackle-breaking, yard-after-catch machine. McDonald's playing time was cut almost in half in Pittsburgh's first game after the bye in Week 8 after three straight games over 60 percent, suggesting to me McDonald may not be as useful in any game in which Pittsburgh is able to enjoy positive game script throughout. This stands to reason as Jesse James is considered a better run blocker, so for any owner as heavily invested in McDonald as I am, this may be something to remember going forward.

Perhaps one of the most Raider things to do is trade away its top receiver (Amari Cooper) and then give their top remaining threat (Jared Cook) less playing time than he's had all season. He didn't have any problem coming through for his fantasy owners in Week 8, but this may be something we need to monitor. Cook would be hard-pressed to come through with more 4-74-1 lines on five targets if he's playing 62 percent of the snaps moving forward (as opposed to the high 80s and low 90s, where he spent most of his first six games).

Ben Watson was a tight end sleeper entering the season. He played 80-plus percent of the snaps in the first two games before essentially splitting his duties with Josh Hill over the next four. Watson saw yet another significant drop in his snaps in Week 8. Despite his strong showing in Week 7 (6-43-1), more games of playing 26 percent of the snaps will result in more of the bagels he settled for in Week 8. Even at a position where owners are struggling to come up with viable alternatives each week, owners don't need to waste roster spots on players playing a quarter of the game.

Although his increase in playing time coincided with the absence of Ryan Griffin, it is clear who Houston believes is his backup. Jordan Thomas played 86 and 89 percent of the snaps, respectively, in Week 7 and Week 8. While his matchup provided one huge game (two touchdowns against Miami last week) and a dud in the other, talented players attached to good quarterbacks in good offenses are often a good place to start when looking for sleeper tight ends.


Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.