One of fantasy football's great traditions is the regular asking
of the following question: "Is (insert name here) even playing?"
Barring injury or complete ineffectiveness, most of the players
at the top of the tables in this article are not likely to have
that question asked about them very often. But most successful
fantasy football owners aren't overly concerned about whether
the stars are playing (that should be a given), but rather what
players are on the rise and which ones aren't. Similarly, is a
certain player's recent production a bit of a fluke or possibly
sustainable?
One of the easiest ways to answer these questions and increase
our "hit rate" is by tracking the percentage of the
snaps they are playing and whether those percentages will allow
for sustainable production. It also is beneficial to identify
players who have seen their playing time increase dramatically
over the last month or so. It is that last group of players I
want to focus on this week at each position.
***Cutoff to qualify for the list was 25 percent of team's
snaps for the season. Notable exceptions such as Aaron Jones were
included given likely future upside.
While it may surprise some Christian McCaffrey is playing an
almost unthinkable 96 percent of the snaps, he is one of six backs
over 80 percent. Although some owners may not like how these backs
are used on occasion, they should very fortunate to have a member
of the 80-and-over club on their team. Melvin Gordon has yet to
see 80 percent of the snaps in any game, but his 63.2 percent
rate is considerably lower than what it was prior to the hamstring
injury that cost him Week 7. While he's not part of the 80-and-over
club, he could easily be considered an honorary member. Joe Mixon
would almost certainly be in this group as well were it not for
the Week 2 knee injury that cost him two games. We already know
T.J. Yeldon is about to fall off a cliff should Leonard Fournette
stay healthy upon his likely Week 10 return, but Alvin Kamara's
72 percent snap rate in Week 8 should rest any remaining lingering
fears Mark Ingram is going to steal significant playing time from
him.
Playing time obviously hasn't been an issue for Dion Lewis (63
percent) or Kenyan Drake (62.7) either, but owners have every
right to be a bit disappointed with both players from a full-season
fantasy perspective. Lewis' 29 receptions certainly have helped
his cause and his 14.6 touches per game are about what owners
should have expected, but the Titans' offense as a whole has been
dreadful, which had contributed greatly to his 3.8 yards per carry,
6.9 yards per reception and a meager two rushing attempts inside
the 5. Drake's big-play ability has helped his cause in a big
way over the last month, and he has become a much bigger part
of the passing game since Brock Osweiler took over for an injured
Ryan Tannehill in Week 5. But let's be clear about something:
while his touches have increased over the last four games, his
likely unsustainable touchdown rate (one per 13.5 touches since
Week 4) is the main reason for his recent solid fantasy production.
He already has five touchdowns in 97 touches this season after
scoring four times on 165 touches in 2017.
I have long considered a 60 percent snap percentage to be on
the borderline of featured back status and 70 percent to be workhorse
status, but statistics often lie and this is no exception. Of
the 14 "featured backs" halfway through the season,
there are at least four (Kamara, Yeldon, Tevin Coleman and Jordan Howard) who stand to be outscored by someone in their own backfield
on a least a semi-regular basis. And if we do nothing more than
average the current PPR ranks of the 14 active players who see
40-49 percent of their team's snaps and compare those to the six
who are currently in the 50-60 percent range, we will find the
average member of the latter group ranks 22.5 (boosted immensely
by James White in fifth place), while the average member of the
former group is 28. While I will admit such comparisons are somewhat
arbitrary, they do support something we should already know: in
this day and age, running back production - outside of the elite
options - is now more about how running backs get their touches
(i.e. through the air) and less about volume than it used to be
even three or four years ago. This is something I have obviously
accounted for with my rankings each summer, but I frankly have
not given it as much weight as I should. It's also worth mentioning
backs who make the bulk of their living in the passing game don't
seem to lose their roles very often.
Looking solely for backs who have seen a dramatic increase in
playing time over the last four weeks, some are fairly obvious
and/or due to injury to another member of the backfield: Latavius Murray, Philip Lindsay, Yeldon, Austin Ekeler and Kerryon Johnson.
And then there are the not-so-obvious, including Alfred Blue,
Wendell Smallwood, Jalen Richard and Tarik Cohen, who have all
watched their playing time increase by at least 10 percent over
the second quarter of the season. Cohen is the RB12 in PPR leagues
right now and has been a key figure during Chicago's recent offensive
surge, which makes me wonder if HC Matt Nagy was trying to "shorten
the season" for his undersized back by limiting him in September.
Either way, he's almost splitting snaps right down the middle
with Howard over the last three games. Richard's emergence isn't
surprising either considering Oakland has basically traded itself
into negative game script. Smallwood is seeing significantly more
time in the backfield now than Corey Clement and has probably
earned himself regular flex status for the foreseeable future.
Blue is notable not because he is a mind-blowing talent, but rather
because his usage has continued to increase despite Lamar Miller's
solid play over the last two weeks. At the very least, it suggests
there will be a real role for D'Onta Foreman if/when he returns
from the PUP list.
Let's wrap up the running backs by saying a few words about Aaron Jones. Last week's 62 percent was 24 points higher than in any
other week this season. Does the trade of Ty Montgomery help keep
that number around 50-60 percent? It probably should, but it probably
also means Jamaal Williams' role will grow since it would appear
he is McCarthy's most trusted receiver, pass protector and route-runner
coming out of the backfield. The departure of Montgomery alone
doesn't figure to make either back RB1 material, and HC Mike McCarthy
has been pretty stubborn about his "each back gives us something
the others don't" approach so far. As much as Jones' owners
feel like now is the time for their guy to shine, it's just as
likely Jones will be Mr. Positive Game Script and Williams will
be Mr. Negative Game Script. Whatever owners do, it's best we
don't pretend as if we have McCarthy figured out. This year has
likely been his worst as a coach and strategist, and there doesn't
seem to be a lot of rhyme or reason to the way he deploys personnel
each week.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.