Because it is important to be positive around the holidays, I purposely
gave you "The Dirty Dozen"
last week. (In all honesty, I would argue it's more important around
this time of the year to be smart about which matchups to avoid,
which is why I did that one first.) Besides, what's better than
to consume the All Out Blitz while you're waiting for dinner on
Thanksgiving Day and watching the matchups I have highlighted work
out just as they were supposed to? (Yeah, I thought so.)
Although football is the quintessential team game, the receiver/cornerback
battle is often as individual as it gets at the skill positions.
Without getting into too much of a philosophical discussion about
how individual it is, we can generally assume that a defense will
remain either a team that uses a “shadow” cornerback
or opts to “play sides” and not change its method
during the course of a game. Receivers tend to move all around
the formation and many of the top receivers nowadays spend time
in the slot, so the most any analyst can say with any certainty
is that a certain receiver should see a lot of a certain
receiver in coverage based on where he has lined up in the past.
While the receiver position will probably always remain the most
difficult fantasy position to predict from week to week, we do
have some tools at our disposal to evaluate just how difficult
their upcoming matchups are. Pro Football Focus has many stats
that can help us to make informed decisions about what receiver/cornerback
matchups we should target and, this week, I am using their coverage
grade (as opposed to their overall grade) as a tool to help discern
what receivers should feast in that given week. Below is a list
of the 12 cornerbacks who have been the most giving to fantasy
receivers, ranked from the 12th-most charitable to the most charitable.
Note:The average number of
coverage snaps for the 117 cornerbacks to qualify (as in the player
isn't currently suspended, on IR, no longer employed, etc.) for
PFF's rankings was 284 this week, so I chose to use that number
to eliminate players who aren't or haven't been "full-timers".
Below each write-up is the remaining schedule and the projected
matchups each corner should see in coverage in that week. Please
note while I do watch enough film to feel confident about my projected
matchups, I am not so naïve to believe I've got each one
pegged. Receivers move across the formation a lot nowadays, while
most defensive coordinators seem to favor keeping their corners
on one side of the formation.
Something else to keep in mind: some offenses have their
receivers switch sides liberally, so it is entirely possible that
two receivers play roughly the same percentage of snaps on the
same side of the formation (or in the slot). In those instances,
I have listed two receivers who stand to benefit.
Brandin Cooks gets to pick on the Miami
secondary in Weeks 12 and 14.
*** - Indicates corner that has been/will be used as a "shadow"
Quite often in the fantasy world, owners get a bit scared when
they see their receiver is expected to face a "shadow." It makes
sense, because if a defensive coordinator assigns a corner to
follow the opponent's top wideout, one would think it is because
he is doing so in hopes said corner can/will shut him down. By
no means has Johnson been horrible - his overall PFF grade is
80th out of 117 qualified corners - but it is probably becoming
clear why the Rams' previous administration didn't want to sign
him to a long-term contract and why there hasn't been any such
talk from the current one either. For what it's worth, Johnson
suffered a concussion in Week 6. The only outside receiver to
"blow up" since that time - at least in his coverage some of the
time - is DeAndre Hopkins, so perhaps he is (or becoming) more
of a neutral matchup than one to target. It is clear, however,
he is not one to fear.
11. Anthony
Brown, Dallas (PFF Coverage Grade: 51.3)
Brown played well enough as a rookie - overall grade of 74.7
from PFF - to help the Cowboys decide to move on from their veteran
cornerbacks this past offseason. The 23-year-old second-year player
doesn't lack for athleticism - he ran a 4.35 and recorded a 35-inch
vertical at the NFL Draft Combine in 2016 - but one has to wonder
if technique or the potential threat of 2017 second-round draft
pick Chidobe Awuzie taking his job is getting to him. Owners need
look no further than Brown getting burnt on a straight go route
by running back Kenjon Barner - who lined up on the left side
of the formation in the first quarter - last week despite giving
him about eight yards of cushion to see he is struggling. Whatever
the reason, Brown spends 71 percent of his time on the left side
of the defensive formation, making him someone owners should target
anytime one of the receivers lines up mostly on the right side
of the offensive formation.
Taylor was a bit of a revelation for the Browns last season,
earning an 82.0 overall grade from PFF after three nondescript
seasons with Miami. Although Joe Haden's injury history played
a part, it's fair to assume Taylor's play helped convince Cleveland's
brass it could part with the former first-round pick and use the
ex-Dolphin to replace him. Instead, it has been free-agent addition
Jason McCourty who has thrived and Taylor who has struggled. McCourty
has only truly shadowed in three games thus far - although Week
12 against the Cincinnati Bengals and A.J. Green figures to be
No. 4 - so he has spent 81 percent of his snaps on the right side
of the defensive formation. Thus, owners will need to evaluate
each week's matchup moving forward and decide whether or not the
opponent has a "shadow-worthy" outside receiver. If so, they should
feel reasonably confident plugging in the opponent's No. 2 wideout
and taking their chances, assuming said receiver has a competent
quarterback.
(To my knowledge, PFF doesn't punish a cornerback for intercepting
a pass and returning it 101 yards without scoring a touchdown.)
All kidding aside, Kirkpatrick has somewhat surprisingly been
in the league six years already. He's offered the Bengals hope
in two of those seasons (2014, 2016), but he has struggled more
often than not in every other one. While William Jackson spends
most of his time at right corner and Darqueze Dennard plays a
lot in the slot (both 69 percent of the time), and both are typically
holding up their end of the bargain with coverage grades of at
least 78.3, Kirkpatrick is getting victimized on the left side
of the defensive formation. Because Cincinnati signed him to a
five-year, $52.5 million contract extension this offseason, it's
a good bet the Bengals are going to keep running him out there
for the foreseeable future, so owners should try to take advantage
of that as well.
8. Kyle
Fuller, Chicago (PFF Coverage Grade: 48.5)
By all accounts, Fuller started season out well, but as is the
case with several corners across the league, offenses will opt
to attack the young guy with less of a resume over his more veteran
counterpart (Prince Amukamara). It also helps when the same corner
has yet to make offenses pay for that strategy by coming up with
at least one interceptions. Fuller hasn't done that yet, and it
seems reasonable he'll be targeted early and often until that
changes with Amukamara holding up on the other side. With that
said, corners can't always control everything that happens in
"their coverage." A prime example came in Week 10 on
Davante Adams' touchdown catch when rookie S Eddie Jackson didn't
play his responsibility like he was supposed to and failed to
get over the top in time. But that was just the end to a very
bad day for Fuller, whom Brett Hundley attacked 10 times (eight
catches) for 127 yards. It is unclear how much more opportunity
Fuller is going to have before he gets pulled, but he is going
to be someone owners should target with receivers who line up
more than half the time on the right side of the offensive formation.
Mitchell qualifies to be on this list only because he met the
coverage snap requirement, as he has logged only six snaps over
the last three weeks combined while Kenneth Acker and Steven Nelson
have seen more playing time. With the Chiefs' surprising addition
of Darrelle Revis on the eve of Thanksgiving, it's fair to wonder
how much fantasy owners will get to take advantage of the Chiefs'
horrible cornerback play opposite Marcus Peters. Then again, if
Revis is the 2016 version of himself, we might as well just plug
his name instead of Mitchell's into this list and continue treating
whomever runs routes against Kansas City's right cornerback as
a bit of a fantasy goldmine. Until we see proof otherwise, that
is exactly the approach most owners should take.
Considering his almost immediate success as a rookie last year
and the fact he has been asked to shadow Brandin Cooks, Marvin
Jones, Mike Evans and Julio Jones this year (and did not give
up a touchdown to any of them), Bradberry's name has to be the
most surprising entry on this list. The Panthers are a heavy zone
coverage team typically content with giving up the short stuff
and letting the offense make a mistake as opposed to giving up
something it shouldn't deep, at least on early downs. Jones roughed
up Bradberry for four catches and 88 yards in Week 9, but the
other three aforementioned receivers did not surpass 60 yards
in the second-year corner's coverage. So while the numbers say
owners should take advantage of the 72 percent of coverage snaps
Bradberry plays on the left side of the defensive formation, I'm
not entirely sure he is someone I'm necessarily hoping to see
line up against my receiver in fantasy.
5. Dontae
Johnson, San Francisco (PFF Coverage Grade: 43.6)
Fans often like to talk about how often a quarterback must adapt
to what seems to be constant turnover at offensive coordinator
(Jason Campbell and Joe Flacco come immediately to mind). While
learning new defensive systems and philosophies isn't quite as
challenging as it is for their offensive counterparts, it would
be ridiculous for anyone to assume most non-blue chip defenders
can transition from one defense to the next every year without
struggling too. Such seems to be the case for Johnson, who has
played for four head coaches and four defensive coordinators in
his four seasons in the league. Entering 2017, Johnson had logged
six career starts, so while most observers will look at his time
in the league and expect "senior" production, he's really
just transitioning from his freshman to sophomore year in terms
of his NFL experience. In other words, Johnson is still very much
a complete wild-card when it comes to determining whether or not
he has a long-term future in the league, and there is just as
good of a chance he emerges into a capable NFL corner in December
as there is he will remain a matchup to exploit. For those who
believe he is in the latter category, he has spent 71 percent
of his snaps at right cornerback this season.
Jackson has been something of a tease for the bulk of his career,
sporting an overall grade of 76.9 or better in even-numbered years
since 2012 and 51.5 or lower in the odd-numbered years. Certainly
his own injuries - as well as those to key personnel on the front
seven - have contributed to his roller-coaster NFL career. However,
the fact Houston was looking at - if not experimenting - with
Jackson moving to safety over the summer is fairly telling in
regards to what the Texans think about his ability to hold up
at cornerback. Not all the blame should fall on Jackson' shoulders
though, as any defense that loses its top two pass rushers - one
a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year (J.J. Watt) and
the other a double-digit sack artist (Whitney Mercilus) - the
coverage is going to suffer. Still, we've seen enough from Jackson
at this point of his career to reasonably assume he is going to
remain a player owners can target in their matchups moving forward
from the slot, where he spends 68 percent of his snaps (he spends
another 30 percent of his snaps at right corner).
3. Justin
Evans, Tampa Bay (PFF Coverage Grade: 40.5)
Evans was drafted in the second round this spring to be an upgrade
on J.J. Wilcox and Chris Conte at safety, so the fact he appears
on this list is a pretty good indication something went terribly
wrong. Veteran Brent Grimes has already missed three games, Vernon
Hargreaves sat out Week 11 and usual slot CB Robert McClain, who
also has missed two games, has been something of a liability in
coverage for the last four years. Since Grimes has played 96 percent
of his snaps this season at left corner and Ryan Smith is set
up to occupy the other side if Hargreaves and McClain can't play
this week or next, Evans will probably not be in a position to
be taken advantage of again anytime soon - at least not in primary
coverage.
2. Buster
Skrine, NY Jets (PFF Coverage Grade: 37.6)
Doing my best DJ impression … moving up the charts from
No. 10 last year to No. 2 this year, is this spunky little 5-9
slot corner from Chattanooga. One year on this list usually is
enough reason for a team to find a replacement. Back-to-back seasons?
I don't know, it's never happened as long as I've been doing this.
To his credit, Skrine has been excellent in run defense (92.2,
per PFF). But as we all know, slot corners who stop the run but
get torched in coverage don't typically hang around very long
in the league and fantasy owners do their best to exploit them
as often as possible until the team has decided it has had enough.
Per PFF, Skrine has never enjoyed an overall grade higher than
52.2 (2011; his rookie season) and this year's 38.1 mark is the
worst of his career. Skrine spends 80 percent of his snaps in
the slot, so owners can target his matchup each week with a high
degree of confidence.
This wasn't supposed to happen. A young (24 years old) corner
with nice size (6-0, 200) and good ball skills in college, Howard
was a second-round pick last year out of Baylor who wasted little
time securing the starting job opposite Byron Maxwell despite
missing most of the preseason. He suffered a torn meniscus midway
through his rookie year and never quite recaptured his old form.
This offseason, he was "very impressive" during OTAs
and considered a potential breakout candidate, but those hopes
have become a distant memory. While counterpart Cordrea Tankersley
hasn't been a shutdown force by any stretch of the imagination,
his 72.6 PFF coverage grade makes him look that way by comparison.
Howard spends 83 percent of his time at right cornerback, so owners
can generally count on him facing the opponent's split end roughly
four out of every five snaps.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
