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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Receiving Attention: WR Usage After 4 Weeks
All Out Blitz: Volume 124
10/5/17

Considering the smashing success that last week's article - Running With Purpose: RB Usage After 3 Weeks - was, it only seems right that receivers and tight ends get the same treatment. While I acknowledge the same metrics aren't quite as important to non-running backs, there is still value to be gained from analyzing at how much playing time receivers are getting and how often they are being utilized when they are on the field. I also wanted to avoid the same old (and maybe a bit tired) target recap article I have typically done around this time of the season in recent years.

Due to some inconsistencies with my data sources, I had to eliminate two of the metrics I used last week for running backs - Touch % and Util %. Thankfully, those metrics aren't quite as important at the two positions we'll be discussing in this article because very few players at those positions steal more than a handful of carries each season.

Key:

Snap % - percentage of total snaps played
Rush % - percentage of snaps played with a rushing attempt
Tar % - percentage of snaps played with a target

Note: Receivers and tight ends needed to average at least 20 snaps per game to qualify.

 WR/TE Activity - 2017; Weeks 1-4
Pos Player Tm Games Totals Snaps/G Snap % Tar %
WR Larry Fitzgerald  ARI 4 295 74 96 14
WR DeAndre Hopkins  HOU 4 294 74 98 17
WR Chris Hogan  NE 4 265 66 91 10
TE Jason Witten  DAL 4 263 66 100 11
WR Jaron Brown  ARI 4 263 66 85 11
TE Rob Gronkowski  NE 4 258 65 88 12
WR Alshon Jeffery  PHI 4 256 64 87 13
WR Marvin Jones  DET 4 256 64 94 7
TE Zach Ertz  PHI 4 255 64 86 14
WR Brandin Cooks  NE 4 254 64 87 9
WR Antonio Brown  PIT 4 253 63 92 18
WR Sterling Shepard  NYG 4 247 62 95 11
WR Adam Thielen  MIN 4 246 62 94 13
WR Demaryius Thomas  DEN 4 245 61 88 12
WR Davante Adams  GB 4 245 61 87 11
TE Travis Kelce  KC 4 242 61 96 11
TE Kyle Rudolph  MIN 4 241 60 92 6
TE Martellus Bennett  GB 4 239 60 84 12
WR Dez Bryant  DAL 4 232 58 88 17
WR Emmanuel Sanders  DEN 4 232 58 83 15
WR Pierre Garcon  SF 4 232 58 85 14
WR Michael Thomas  NO 4 231 58 89 16
TE Jack Doyle  IND 4 230 58 93 10
TE Jesse James  PIT 4 229 57 84 9
WR A.J. Green  CIN 4 229 57 92 17
WR Tyrell Williams  LAC 4 228 57 92 11
WR Brandon Marshall  NYG 4 227 57 87 13
TE Marcedes Lewis  JAC 4 226 57 80 6
WR Brandon LaFell  CIN 4 226 57 90 8
WR Torrey Smith  PHI 4 225 56 76 8
WR Chris Conley  KC 4 225 56 90 6
WR T.Y. Hilton  IND 4 223 56 90 13
WR Golden Tate  DET 4 221 55 81 14
WR Doug Baldwin  SEA 4 221 55 81 14
WR Stefon Diggs  MIN 4 219 55 84 15
WR Marqise Lee  JAC 4 217 54 77 12
TE Ed Dickson  CAR 4 216 54 84 4
WR Jermaine Kearse  NYJ 4 216 54 87 11
TE Evan Engram  NYG 4 215 54 82 14
WR Allen Hurns  JAC 4 214 54 76 11
WR Zay Jones  BUF 4 214 54 84 8
WR Keenan Allen  LAC 4 212 53 86 19
TE George Kittle  SF 4 211 53 78 7
TE Charles Clay  BUF 4 210 53 82 12
WR Devin Funchess  CAR 4 210 53 82 13
WR Robert Woods  LAR 4 209 52 83 11
WR Amari Cooper  OAK 4 206 52 90 15
WR Jordan Matthews  BUF 4 206 52 80 6
WR Brandon Coleman  NO 4 206 52 80 5
WR Terrelle Pryor  WAS 4 205 51 81 12
WR Robby Anderson  NYJ 4 204 51 83 12
WR Tyler Lockett  SEA 4 203 51 75 10
WR Nelson Agholor  PHI 4 203 51 69 9
TE Tyler Higbee  LAR 4 202 51 80 6
WR Donte Moncrief  IND 4 199 50 81 9
WR Eric Decker  TEN 4 199 50 81 10
WR Mike Wallace  BAL 4 197 49 75 10
TE Austin Hooper  ATL 4 196 49 75 7
WR Rishard Matthews  TEN 4 196 49 80 16
WR Tyreek Hill  KC 4 194 49 77 14
WR Jordy Nelson  GB 3 194 65 94 12
WR Kenny Britt  CLE 4 192 48 69 12
WR Paul Richardson  SEA 4 191 48 70 12
TE Delanie Walker  TEN 4 190 48 77 14
WR Martavis Bryant  PIT 4 190 48 69 12
TE Jimmy Graham  SEA 4 187 47 69 14
WR Sammy Watkins  LAR 4 187 47 75 9
WR Mohamed Sanu  ATL 4 184 46 71 13
WR Seth Roberts  OAK 4 184 46 81 7
TE Jermaine Gresham  ARI 3 183 61 76 9
TE Jared Cook  OAK 4 181 45 79 14
WR Bruce Ellington  HOU 3 181 60 77 7
WR Deonte Thompson  CHI 4 179 45 68 10
TE Nick Boyle  BAL 4 176 44 67 5
WR Jeremy Maclin  BAL 4 174 44 67 11
TE Ben Watson  BAL 4 173 43 66 10
TE Vernon Davis  WAS 4 173 43 69 6
WR Jamison Crowder  WAS 4 171 43 68 11
WR Julio Jones  ATL 4 169 42 65 18
WR Kenny Stills  MIA 3 169 56 92 11
TE Zach Miller  CHI 4 168 42 64 12
WR Jarvis Landry  MIA 3 168 56 92 20
WR DeVante Parker  MIA 3 168 56 92 16
WR Breshad Perriman  BAL 4 168 42 64 8
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster  PIT 4 168 42 61 8
TE Eric Ebron  DET 4 167 42 61 11
WR Terrance Williams  DAL 4 167 42 63 13
WR Cole Beasley  DAL 4 165 41 63 12
WR Ted Ginn Jr. NO 4 164 41 63 10
WR Braxton Miller  HOU 3 163 54 75 5
WR Mike Evans  TB 3 161 54 86 20
WR Ricardo Louis  CLE 4 161 40 58 12
WR Marquise Goodwin  SF 4 160 40 59 12
WR Rashard Higgins  CLE 3 159 53 75 13
WR Travis Benjamin  LAC 4 159 40 64 13
WR Cooper Kupp  LAR 4 158 40 63 13
WR Odell Beckham Jr.  NYG 3 157 52 77 21
WR J.J. Nelson  ARI 4 157 39 51 13
WR Taylor Gabriel  ATL 4 154 39 59 12
TE Ryan Griffin  HOU 3 152 51 65 8
WR Randall Cobb  GB 3 150 50 70 17
WR Kelvin Benjamin  CAR 4 150 38 58 13
TE Antonio Gates  LAC 4 147 37 60 12
WR Keelan Cole  JAC 4 146 37 52 10
WR Kamar Aiken  IND 4 145 36 59 12
WR Albert Wilson  KC 4 144 36 57 11
WR Bennie Fowler  DEN 4 143 36 51 11
WR Laquon Treadwell  MIN 4 143 36 55 7
TE Julius Thomas  MIA 3 141 47 77 9
TE Seth Devalve  CLE 4 138 35 49 13
TE Hunter Henry  LAC 4 132 34 59 8
WR Trent Taylor  SF 4 131 33 48 15
WR Kendall Wright  CHI 3 131 44 66 14
TE Virgil Green  DEN 3 128 43 59 5
WR Josh Bellamy  CHI 3 128 43 64 13
WR Russell Shepard  CAR 4 127 32 49 5
TE David Njoku  CLE 4 126 32 45 10
TE Tyler Kroft  CIN 3 125 42 67 10
WR DeSean Jackson  TB 3 124 41 66 16
WR Jeremy Kerley  NYJ 3 124 41 66 10
WR Adam Humphries  TB 3 123 41 65 16
WR Kenny Golladay  DET 3 123 41 61 12
WR Ryan Grant  WAS 4 123 31 49 12
TE Coby Fleener  NO 4 122 31 47 12
WR Andre Holmes  BUF 4 122 31 48 7
TE Darren Fells  DET 3 121 40 60 6
TE A.J. Derby  DEN 4 116 29 41 10
TE Dion Sims  CHI 3 116 39 58 4
WR John Brown  ARI 2 116 58 72 14
WR Michael Crabtree  OAK 3 114 38 66 14
WR Tyler Boyd  CIN 3 111 37 60 6
WR Aldrick Robinson  SF 3 110 37 49 16
TE Jonnu Smith  TEN 3 109 36 53 6
TE Jordan Reed  WAS 3 108 36 59 18
WR Geronimo Allison  GB 2 108 54 74 12
WR Cordarrelle Patterson  OAK 4 108 27 47 9
TE Tyler Eifert  CIN 2 104 52 83 5
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins  NYJ 2 102 51 77 10
TE Luke Willson  SEA 4 101 25 37 9
WR Danny Amendola  NE 3 100 33 46 19
TE Cameron Brate  TB 3 99 33 53 13
TE Stephen Anderson  HOU 3 99 33 42 10
TE Dwayne Allen  NE 4 99 25 34 6
WR Eli Rogers  PIT 3 97 32 49 11
TE Michael Hoomanawanui  NO 3 93 31 47 4
TE Greg Olsen  CAR 2 92 46 68 7
WR Corey Coleman  CLE 2 91 46 66 14
WR Brice Butler  DAL 4 86 22 33 10
WR Roger Lewis  NYG 4 84 21 32 11
WR Josh Doctson  WAS 3 82 27 43 7
WR T.J. Jones  DET 3 80 27 38 15
WR Markus Wheaton  CHI 2 78 39 59 6
TE Nick O'Leary  BUF 2 77 39 54 4
WR Justin Hardy  ATL 2 77 39 58 10
TE Rhett Ellison  NYG 3 72 24 38 7
TE Troy Niklas  ARI 3 68 23 31 6
WR Will Fuller  HOU 1 67 67 80 9
TE Gerald Everett  LAR 3 66 22 36 11
TE Demetrius Harris  KC 2 66 33 46 8
WR Corey Davis  TEN 2 65 33 49 20
TE Vance McDonald  PIT 3 64 21 32 3
TE Josh Hill  NO 2 63 32 51 6
TE Brent Celek  PHI 2 59 30 40 5
TE Levine Toilolo  ATL 2 58 29 43 7
TE Niles Paul  WAS 2 58 29 49 3
TE Garrett Celek  SF 2 52 26 40 6
WR Curtis Samuel  CAR 2 48 24 38 17
WR Kevin White  CHI 1 47 47 70 9
TE Maxx Williams  BAL 2 45 23 34 11
TE Eric Tomlinson  NYJ 2 42 21 33 7
TE James Hanna  DAL 1 30 30 42 3
WR Nick Williams  ATL 1 28 28 37 14
WR Sammie Coates  CLE 1 26 26 37 15
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz  HOU 1 24 24 30 17
WR Jordan Leslie  CLE 1 21 21 27 5

****The bulk of this chart was created using information provided by FantasyPros and Pro Football Reference.

Chris Hogan's hot start can in part be attributed to the Pats limiting Amendola's usage in hopes of keeping him healthy.


As you can probably tell from the looking at the group when sorting "total," trying to find much deep analysis using snap counts isn't overly helpful, nor is it overly predictive of fantasy success. Playing time is the currency by which NFL players are "paid" on the field, but fantasy owners want to know what players are doing with that "cash" once they receive it. In short, we must dig deeper.

Target percentage is a much more telling metric, as it gives owners much more of an idea of how much the quarterback trusts him, how often the offensive coordinator is dialing up plays for him when he is in the game, or both. Doing a search in this column yields some interesting results, although it is somewhat predictable none of the top three entries (Jarvis Landry, Mike Evans and Corey Davis) have played as many games as the rest of the players. The more interesting entries to me are Keenan Allen and Danny Amendola, who also has one fewer game to his name than the majority of the players listed. Both players are being targeted 19 percent of the time they are on the field - which is different than being targeted on 19 percent of the pass attempts - and speaks to how important each player is to Philip Rivers and Tom Brady, respectively. The only thing keeping Amendola from being a Julian Edelman clone is playing time - just over 33 snaps per game - as the team desperately tries to protect him from himself. It is one key explanation as to why Hogan's snap count is so high.

Given how much Arizona and Houston rely on Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins, respectively, in the passing game, it probably comes as no surprise they lead all receivers and tight ends in total number of snaps so far. No. 3 (Chris Hogan) and No. 4 (Jaron Brown) have to come as a bit more of a surprise, however, since Hogan wasn't even guaranteed a primary role in New England's passing game before the start of the season.

Brown wasn't guaranteed anything heading into the season coming off a 2016 ACL tear, and a zero-target game in Week 1 (despite playing 55 snaps, no less) only seemed to cement his status as a bit player. Yet, there is Brown sitting 20th in PPR fantasy points per game (13.5) and sitting on a number of waiver wires. He has at least 11 targets in two of his games (six in the other) and wasn't too far away from catching two touchdown passes in the one game in which he didn't. It's not crazy to believe it will be Jaron Brown - and not John Brown or J.J. Nelson - who will remain the target of choice behind Larry Fitzgerald in the league's second-most pass-happy attack (64 percent pass, 36 percent run) simply because he is a bigger target who isn't as a prone to soft-tissue injuries as John Brown and Nelson seem to be.

Antonio Brown's appearance near the top is no surprise, but Julio Jones' presence might be considering he has seen exactly one target inside the red zone. It's a bit disconcerting when someone like Dez Bryant already has six inside the 10 alone and Fitzgerald has 10 inside the 20.

Moving on to the less obvious players, Adam Humphries' line across the board is almost identical to teammate DeSean Jackson's. Humphries' 16-percent target percentage is a bit of an eye-opener, especially for someone who was supposed to get lost in the wave of new talent that joined the Buccaneers this spring. Seeing as how Tampa Bay just got done playing the Vikings and Giants' impressive secondaries, there may be less of a need for Humphries' quick routes in an offense run by a coach (HC Dirk Koetter) who likes the vertical passing game as much as anyone. With that said, even the most aggressive NFL teams usually don't go downfield more than 25 percent of the time. Ultimately, how long Humphries stays relevant depends on how long Koetter chooses to go with three-wide sets over two-tight sets, which would I receive lead to more playing time for rookie O.J. Howard.

I fear I'm jinxing him by evening mentioning his name, but Bruce Ellington needs to be on more fantasy radars than he currently is. Despite the return of Will Fuller last week, Ellington still logged 66 snaps after getting 70 the week before in New England. One of the more snake-bitten players when it comes to injuries in recent memory, Ellington has taken over the "super" slot job from Braxton Miller. With the amount of playing time he is receiving and given the possibility that Deshaun Watson may begin to back away a bit from force-feeding DeAndre Hopkins - "Nuk" has a league-high 49 targets after four games - Ellington may end up absorbing the same intermediate looks that made C.J. Fiedorowicz valuable in fantasy last year. Furthermore, Watson proved over his last two years at Clemson he knows how to find his slot receiver, as Hunter Renfrow was more than just a little nuisance in both national championship games against Alabama. Ellington's biggest obstacle as a pro has always been durability; if he's finally moving past that, his role will only grow. And in case anyone was wondering, Fuller played 67 snaps in his return Week 4, so Ellington's high snap count last week was not a result of the Texans easing Fuller back into action.

Pierre Garcon may be disappointing some folks with his every-other-game production thus far, but did anyone really expect him to produce at Seattle in Week 2 or in shadow coverage against Patrick Peterson last week? He has been exactly what owners should have expected from him in August: a candidate for 10 or more targets in soft-to-medium matchups who is not going to score a lot of touchdowns or be unable to overcome Brian Hoyer being his quarterback in the more difficult ones. Owners should really embrace the fact he is seeing over eight targets on nearly 60 snaps per game. At his current rate (which is probably a little slower than expected), Garcon is on pace for 80 catches and 1,140 yards. Considering the likelihood he'll find the end zone three or four times over the last 12 games after failing to do so in the first four, those are WR2 numbers in a bad offense. If "business" picks up even a little bit over the next quarter of the season - and it should with upcoming matchups against Indianapolis, Dallas and Philadelphia's banged-up secondary - Garcon's production only figures to pick up.

On the other end of the activity spectrum, we have Washington's supposed "top" receivers, Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder. I warned owners during the summer that HC Jay Gruden's history suggests he believed much more in a balanced offensive approach than former OC Sean McVay and that is how it is playing out so far. Whereas DeSean Jackson and Garçon were each targeted on 14 percent of their snaps in a more pass-heavy offense (Kirk Cousins had 606 attempts in 2016; he's on pace for 484 this season), Pryor is being targeted on 12 percent of his plays and Crowder 11. Throw Ryan Grant into the mix and an increase in activity for Josh Doctson and you have an offense that no longer comes anywhere close to resembling the 2016 edition.

Count me among the frustrated Kelvin Benjamin owners, but it is hard for a 6-5, 245-pound receiver to do the work he is expected to do in fantasy when he has two red zone targets through four games (none inside the 10). Meanwhile, teammate Devin Funchess has four red zone targets (scoring on two). Benjamin and Funchess both check in at a 13-percent target percentage, although that (and the 60-snap difference in Funchess' favor) is a bit misleading since Benjamin was injured in the first quarter (and did not return) in Week 3. While this week may not be the best week for KB to break out against Detroit, he has been targeted on 24 percent of his routes and the schedule the rest of the way appears to be about as soft as I projected in August. Stay the course. It's obvious Cam Newton loves throwing him the ball, and one can only hope last week versus the Patriots was exactly the spark this offense needed. If that is what ends up happening, there will be more Week 4-like performances ahead for Benjamin. Much like Julio Jones, Benjamin has yet to score and is more than 200 yards below his pace from last season - both of which were considered disappointing by their lofty standards. Unlike Jones, Benjamin's YPC is a career-high 16.5. The dam is about to break for both players, so stay patient.

Congratulations if you had Rob Gronkowski playing five fewer snaps than ironman Jason Witten a quarter of the way through the season. What is a bit scary is that while Witten has played all of his team's 263 snaps thus far, Gronk could have played almost 30 more than Witten if he wasn’t being "monitored." Trusting a player with three back surgeries to hold up for 1,032 snaps when he has combined for 1,305 over the last two seasons seems foolish, but it is worth noting he played at least 809 snaps in the previous four years prior to logging 357 last year, per Football Outsiders.

Is Charles Clay really becoming a thing in 2017? Although mostly out of necessity, the removal of receiver talent in Buffalo - unlike Washington - has cleared a path for Clay to become the leading man. Or has it? Clay's 6.25 targets/game average is only marginally better than last season's 5.8, while this season's 72-percent catch rate is only a little bit better than last year's 65.5. So what gives? His highest YPC (12.6) since his rookie year is one reason. His five red zone targets might be another (13 all of last year). His snaps/game (53) only ranks 13th among tight ends, while his 12 percent target percentage is only two percent higher than last year. So why does it seem like he's "better" in 2017? Clay, who didn't score until Week 14 in 2016, already has two TDs. In short, he has simply carried over what he did at the end of last year into this season.

Sticking with tight ends, do you remember where you were Austin Seferian-Jenkins was supposedly out of shape? It was just two short weeks ago. For someone with fitness questions, I'd say 51 snaps/game and playing 77 percent of the snaps is doing all right. His 10 percent target percentage is low for a tight end - even by that position's relatively low standards - but probably better than most would have expected for someone who is just working his way into the offense. I have no desire to own more than one Jet on any of my teams, but Seferian-Jenkins is a player I have liked since he was drafted and an above-average talent for his position at the very least. Jermaine Kearse's first two weeks with Gang Green serves as proof the Jets can support at least one fantasy option in the passing game. I also don't think it's a coincidence neither Kearse nor Robby Anderson has seen a ton of volume since Seferian-Jenkins completed his suspension. And no offense to Kearse or Anderson, but ASJ is bigger and more athletic than both and will typically face less-skilled defenders given the position he plays. That's a good combination for fantasy owners. It also helps New York's next three opponents (Cleveland, New England and Miami) all rank inside the top 10 in terms of most points allowed to tight ends. I'm predicting a huge game for him this week versus the Browns, who have surrendered at least 17.1 PPR fantasy points to a tight end in three of the four games they've played this year. Even if you don't want to believe his role is going to grow like I do, it's hard to thumb your nose at three "soft" matchup for a player the Jets spent the summer bragging about.

Jimmy Graham is probably not a name fantasy owners particularly care to hear right now, even though he has performed much better for his owners over the last two games. The offense was clearly out of sorts in the first two weeks, and Graham was far from 100 percent in Week 2 at the very least, if not also Week 1. His 33-yard catch late in Week 4 on a beautiful out-and-up route was a sign he is starting to get right, while his 17 targets over the last two contests is an indication the chemistry between Graham and Russell Wilson is starting to build. The downside - and probably the only thing keeping his owners from rejoicing over that time - is the fact that Luke Willson has scored both of the touchdowns that have gone to Seattle tight ends. It says here the absence of Chris Carson - plus his continued return to near-full health - will actually be a good thing for his fantasy production going forward, particularly if Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls don't enjoy more success on the ground than they have to this point. I'm most encouraged by Graham's 14-percent target percentage, which is a high number considering how dreadful his first two weeks were.

****************

I'm going to end this week's piece with a bit of a warning. Not only is the NFL a small sample-size sport, it is a week-to-week sport as well. What appears so obvious today is not necessarily so obvious tomorrow. For as much good analysis as there is in the fantasy industry as a whole, there is a lot of lazy analysis as well, much of which assumes the NFL is static until the next tidal wave comes in and changes everything for the umpteenth time. Two weeks ago, the Saints' defense was a sieve. One month ago, the Patriots were supposedly a top-10 defense and a team some expected to go 16-0. Two weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens' defense was an impenetrable force. Owners and analysts alike must be vigilant in asking and discovering why we were wrong and, in most cases, what changed.

In New England's case, I think much of the blame can be placed at the loss of veteran leaders such as Chris Long and Rob Ninkovich, although it is pretty obvious MLB Dont'a Hightower is more important to that defense that most people realized. He's played about 1 1/2 games and logged his first full game last week. All I'm saying with the Patriots is that owners should enjoy the plus-matchup they provide at the moment because HC Bill Belichick's track record suggests he and DC Matt Patricia will find answers to their problems sooner than later.

In Baltimore's case, it appears to be as simple as the loss of 340-pound run-stuffer DT Brandon Williams. While Williams' absence may not be the sole reason of the Ravens' demise - the offense isn't helping with its inability to sustain drives - it's probably not a coincidence the defense began hemorrhaging rushing yards just about as soon as Williams wasn't around to clog running lanes. When once-elite defenses can't get opponents into long down-and-distance situations, sack - and ultimately turnover - opportunities dry up because defenses must still play run and pass. It's a key part of basic football that doesn't get talked about nearly enough by fantasy owners or analysts when it comes to defenses and defensive efficiency. Baltimore's defense didn't just get bad overnight after collecting eight sacks and 10 turnovers in the first two weeks of the season. It lost a vital cog. Williams is without a timetable for return at the moment, but you can almost bet when he comes back, the Ravens will probably start looking a bit more like the Week 1-2 version that was absolutely destroying offenses.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.