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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


First Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC North
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/26/16
East | North | South | West

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Former head coach Jerry Glanville famously said nearly 30 years ago the NFL stands for "Not for Long". Even though he was talking to a referee about a questionable call and coach's ability to hold on to his job under such circumstances when he coined the phrase, "not for long" also sometimes applies to the shelf life of fantasy projections made in July. We learned that lesson again this past week when it became public Le'Veon Bell will likely open the season serving a four-game suspension and Josh Gordon was conditionally reinstated. The best part? Bell is apparently quite confident he will not miss any games, while Gordon knows he won't suit up for a game that counts until Week 5. I can't wait for more drama to unfold (he said sarcastically).

I guess it's a good thing we get more than one bite at the apple (projecting stats) during the summer; it is also yet another reminder why owners shouldn't put anything of consequence on the line when drafting this early. Occurrences like this are just another reason why I decided to stop doing full-season projections last year. There's already too much uncertainty that affects our teams during the season. The last thing any owner wants is to have a surefire first-rounder, who played in only six games last year due to a suspension and knee injury, sidelined for a quarter of the upcoming fantasy season before he even hits training camp.

Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC North. I have color-coded the matchups for the full season. I think it is essential for owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August. It's not as complex as it sounds and, after working out the kinks last year, I think it will lead to the best set of Big Boards yet.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations reasonable in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than league-average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Other important notes:

- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2016.

- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words, don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are different from the ones you see here.

Key to the table below:

PAvg - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NAvg - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.


AFC North

 Baltimore Ravens
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
BUF CLE JAC OAK WAS NYG NYJ bye PIT CLE DAL CIN MIA NE PHI PIT
QB Joe Flacco 31 21.4 21.4 85.4 85.4 1110 270 235 330 275
TD 8 1 3 2 2
INT 4 1 1 0 2
Ru Yards 10 0 0 5 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Justin Forsett 30 10.9 7.9 43.5 31.5 170 45 60 35 30
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 85 20 10 30 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 3 1 4 4
RB Javorius Allen 25 2 1.5 8 6 45 15 20 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 15 10 5 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 1 0 0
RB Kenneth Dixon 22 10.8 9.3 43 37 200 35 40 55 70
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 50 10 15 10 15
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 6 1 2 1 2
WR Steve Smith 37 6.3 3.3 25 13 130 30 45 35 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 3 3 4 2
WR Mike Wallace 30 11.8 8.8 47 35 230 70 15 105 40
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 12 3 1 5 3
WR Kamar Aiken 27 11.1 6.6 44.5 26.5 205 55 35 50 65
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 18 5 3 5 5
WR Breshad Perriman 22 6.6 4.9 26.5 19.5 135 15 60 30 30
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 7 1 3 1 2
TE Ben Watson 36 8.6 5.9 34.5 23.5 115 25 10 50 30
Re TD 2 0 0 1 1
Rec 11 2 1 5 3
TE Dennis Pitta 31 8.6 5.1 34.5 20.5 145 35 40 20 50
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 14 3 4 2 5

Forsett that will turn 31 during the season and is coming off a year in which he missed the final six games of 2015 due to a broken arm. Allen proved to be everything college reports that he was - an average runner with above-average ability in the passing game - while Dixon appears to be the future at the position, although very few seem to think much will happen in that regard this season. The natural assumption seems to be Forsett win the job because he is the incumbent, but I think it becomes clear in camp that Dixon is going to need to be heavily involved from the onset. Whoever wins the job will have the benefit of having OC Marc Trestman's history on his side - Trestman has had a 20-touch back in 58 percent of his games over the last three seasons. Whichever back emerges - assuming one does - has a relatively tame slate, with the Jets (Week 7) and fast-improving Raiders (Week 4) likely serving as the stiffest competition before the bye. The second half of the schedule gets a bit more difficult, although Trestman's utilization of running backs in the passing game should mitigate those concerns. The biggest challenge for owners when it comes to Baltimore's backfield will not be the schedule, but rather figuring out if Forsett can keep the job or Dixon will steal it from him before midseason.

Flacco was well on pace for his first 4,000-yard season before an ACL tear dashed those hopes. Trestman has already said he intends on running the ball more this season, but injuries depleted the team to the point in 2015 that Baltimore had no choice but to throw all day. As will be a common occurrence throughout the remainder of the column, there are no red matchups for Flacco and virtually none for the Ravens in general. With that said, it's hard for even the most extreme optimist to put much faith in the former Super Bowl MVP when his top wideout is coming off an Achilles' injury (Smith), the team's speediest receiver can't get on field (Perriman) and the team's other deep threat is on his third team in three years (Wallace). Like Flacco, the receivers' schedule is mostly devoid of red and looks particularly favorable around fantasy playoff time. Figuring out which receiver will benefit the most from that, however, will be the main issue for owners. Will Smith find his 2015 form at any point this year? Will Wallace be more like the 2014 version we saw in Miami or the 2015 model that stagnated in Minnesota? Will Aiken and/or Perriman nudge either one of them out of the lineup if the 30-somethings aren't performing up to snuff? The Ravens' addition of Watson (and possible return of Pitta) suggests to me this passing game may be defined more by its balance than anything else, especially when you consider four receivers are capable of starting. Watson will play and so will Pitta if he's up to it, which means there is a strong possibility of a lot of "12" personnel (one back, two tight ends and two receivers). Balance - at least in this regard - is not a word fantasy owners like to hear, and the schedule doesn’t appear to be overly kind to the Baltimore tight ends either, especially as the season went down. Between Byron Jones (Week 11), Jamie Collins and Devin McCourty (Week 14) and Malcolm Jenkins (Week 15) spending a good chunk of their time on or around Watson and Pitta, it's hard to find a reason to believe either one is going to have much impact when it matters the most in fantasy.

 Cincinnati Bengals
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NYJ PIT DEN MIA DAL NE CLE WAS bye NYG BUF BAL PHI CLE PIT HOU
QB Andy Dalton 28 16.3 16.3 65.2 65.2 980 215 305 190 270
TD 5 1 3 0 1
INT 4 2 1 1 0
Ru Yards 40 15 10 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Jeremy Hill 23 12.8 12 51 48 270 35 50 80 105
Ru TD 3 0 0 1 2
Re Yards 30 0 10 20 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 1 2 0
RB Giovani Bernard 24 8.1 5.1 32.5 20.5 105 40 25 15 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 100 45 30 20 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 5 4 2 1
WR A.J. Green 28 21.5 14.5 86 58 400 65 140 75 120
Re TD 3 0 2 0 1
Rec 28 5 9 6 8
WR Brandon LaFell 29 7.1 4.9 28.5 19.5 135 40 40 10 45
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 9 2 4 1 2
WR Tyler Boyd 21 5.6 2.9 22.5 11.5 115 40 25 10 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 3 2 2 4
WR Cody Core 22 1.9 0.9 7.5 3.5 35 10 0 20 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 0 2 1
TE Tyler Eifert 25 9.5 5.5 9.5 5.5 55 INJ INJ INJ 55
Re TD 0 INJ INJ INJ 0
Rec 4 INJ INJ INJ 4
TE Tyler Kroft 23 6.3 4 25 16 100 15 50 35 0
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 9 2 4 3 0

Hill owners will need to practice patience in September in all likelihood, as the early slate is very unfriendly to backs that generate most of their fantasy value on the ground. Sure, the Jets (Week 1) lost NT Damon "Snacks" Harrison and the Broncos (Week 3) lost DE Malik Jackson as well as ILB Danny Trevathan, but both run defenses figure to remain quite stout. After that, Hill should find the going much easier, although the Giants (Week 10) could easily be enough another yellow matchup to add to a second half of the schedule that features the Steelers (Week 15) and the Texans (Week 16) at the end of it. Although new OC Ken Zampese is expected to keep the same offense in place that former play-caller Hue Jackson implemented, there will always be new wrinkles involved when a coordinator change takes place. The departure of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones should have a positive effect on the fantasy value of Bernard, who also stands to benefit just about anytime Hill struggles. Hill led the team in PPR scoring seven times and Bernard nine times last season, and a similar outcome could take place again in 2016. Bernard should be considered the favorite anytime both backs have a yellow or red matchup, making him the back owners are going to want at the beginning and the end of the season. The absence of Eifert could change that, however, since Cincinnati will be even more inclined to focus on the power-running game.

There's an argument being made that Dalton will actually be better this season than last because LaFell and Boyd represent a upgrade over Jones and Sanu, which should be taken as a nod to Boyd and a slap in the face to Jones. As Dalton's line indicates, he's probably going to max out as a matchup-based fantasy starter. Losing Jackson will hurt, and it is a safe bet Zampese will put more of the burden on the running game to carry the offense early while he learns what he has in LaFell and Boyd. The deck is stacked against Dalton coming out of the gate on fire like he did last season (especially without Eifert), so expect a heavy reliance on Green - his pace stats per my projections would be 112 catches, 1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns on 168 targets, and that is taking into consideration he'll matchup a lot against Darrelle Revis (Week 1) and Aqib Talib or Chris Harris Jr. (Week 3) over that time - when he does throw. Green should be an absolute monster down the stretch, assuming the Bengals can don't depend so heavily on Eifert in the red zone again this year. If LaFell somehow holds on to the starting job all season long, it will mean he has at least curbed his drop issues, although the reason I have him projected to start slow is due to the difficult defenses he will face in September. Eifert generated most of his fantasy value through touchdowns last season, so he was already a strong candidate for regression prior to his ankle surgery. However, the best time for him to miss games (for the Bengals and for his owners) would be early on, as Eifert has no worse than a neutral matchup after Week 6.

 Cleveland Browns
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
PHI BAL MIA WAS NE TEN CIN NYJ DAL BAL PIT NYG bye CIN BUF SD
QB Robert Griffin III 26 14.9 14.9 59.4 59.4 1035 245 265 275 250
TD 2 0 1 1 0
INT 4 1 0 1 2
Ru Yards 80 25 15 15 25
Ru TD 1 1 0 0 0
RB Isaiah Crowell 23 10.6 9.4 42.5 37.5 210 55 40 75 40
Ru TD 2 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 45 10 0 15 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 0 2 2
RB Duke Johnson 22 14.8 8.5 59 34 140 40 45 30 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 200 55 35 70 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 25 6 5 8 6
WR Corey Coleman 22 11.5 7.8 46 31 35 10 0 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 215 45 65 85 20
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 15 3 4 6 2
WR Andrew Hawkins 30 8 4.3 32 17 170 35 40 40 55
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 3 4 3 5
WR Taylor Gabriel 25 4.1 2.6 16.5 10.5 105 40 50 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 3 0 1
WR Terrelle Pryor 27 2 1 8 4 40 10 0 5 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 0 1 2
WR Rashard Higgins 21 1.9 0.9 7.5 3.5 35 10 0 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 0 2 1
TE Gary Barnidge 30 10.9 6.6 43.5 26.5 205 40 65 45 55
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 17 3 6 3 5

The Browns may not be very good this year, but the odds are pretty strong they will have enough volume in the backfield to make two runners viable in fantasy more often than not. To get a sense about the kind of volume I expect, I have Crowell projected for 60 touches and Johnson for 55, which works out to just under 30 per game from an offense many expect to be trailing 50 or 60 percent of the time. Once again, the biggest question will be whether or not the "backup" (Johnson) overtakes Crowell at any point and becomes the featured back - leaving Crowell as the breather back - or if Johnson is the breather back and maintains passing-down work. Like Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill above, Johnson stands to benefit any time Crowell struggles and/or Cleveland is trailing, so he figures to be the much more consistent option regardless of whether or not Crowell keeps the starting job. Volume is going to be important for Crowell since the first 11 weeks do not offer up many cupcakes and touchdowns will be hard to come by. During this time, Johnson should be averaging at least five catches, as he will be no worse than the third man on the passing-game totem pole. All hope is not lost for Crowell - Cleveland has a pretty decent offensive line all things considered - but owners need to realize he will be inconsistent at best and isn't going to see the field a whole lot in the second half of games if the Browns are as bad as we think they will be.

Griffin isn't even assured the starting job, but it probably won't matter much whether he holds off Josh McCown. Both quarterbacks will need the rushing attack to be efficient in order to do their job well and Coleman will need to hit the ground running in order to stretch the defense a bit. Given how red and yellow most of the season looks for Cleveland pass-catchers, I wouldn't bet on that happening all that often. Volume - outside of late-game situations against prevent defenses - will not be in RG3's favor and neither will the matchups, which look treacherous for such a weak passing game. Griffin has rarely held up well against pass-rush pressure - something I would expect him to see on nearly 40 percent of his drop-backs regardless of how well the line is playing - because it is unlikely last year's sabbatical did him any favors in terms of speeding up his decision-making or making him more capable of absorbing punishment. Barring a seamless return by Josh Gordon - hardly a given since he did not play at all last year - Coleman is going to be forced to be the No. 1 option against a schedule that will pit him up against Josh Norman (Week 4) and Darrelle Revis (Week 8) as well as a host of above-average cornerbacks from Cincinnati (Weeks 7 and 14), Buffalo (Week 15) and San Diego (Week 16). No thanks. Barnidge's splits with and without McCown last year are staggering, so last year's breakout star probably goes from a mid-range TE1 capable of scoring a touchdown every other week to a potential TE2. If RG3 isn't the reason he starts slow, blame the schedule; four of the Browns' first five opponents did a masterful job keeping tight ends in check last year. The one that didn't (Washington) will have longtime CB DeAngelo Hall playing free safety in 2016.

 Pittsburgh Steelers
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
WAS CIN PHI KC NYJ MIA NE bye BAL DAL CLE IND NYG BUF CIN BAL
QB Ben Roethlisberger 34 24.5 24.5 97.8 97.8 1270 350 280 345 295
TD 9 2 2 3 2
INT 4 1 2 0 1
Ru Yards 10 0 5 0 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Le'Veon Bell 24 0 0 0 0 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
Ru TD 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
Re Yards 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
Re TD 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
Rec 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS
RB DeAngelo Williams 33 21.8 18.3 87 73 385 85 75 100 125
Ru TD 4 2 1 1 0
Re Yards 105 35 20 30 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 14 4 3 4 3
RB Fitzgerald Toussaint 26 5.6 4.4 22.5 17.5 140 30 40 45 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 35 15 0 5 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 0 1 2
WR Antonio Brown 28 23 16 92 64 400 110 75 125 90
Re TD 4 0 1 2 1
Rec 28 9 6 7 6
WR Markus Wheaton 25 9.6 6.1 38.5 24.5 185 60 40 55 30
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 14 4 3 5 2
WR Sammie Coates 23 13.4 10.1 53.5 40.5 285 45 55 85 100
Re TD 2 0 0 1 1
Rec 13 2 3 3 5
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 29 1.1 0.6 4.5 2.5 25 15 0 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 1 0 0 1
TE Ladarius Green 32 12.9 8.9 51.5 35.5 235 70 90 45 30
Re TD 2 1 1 0 0
Rec 16 5 6 3 2

What is it with the Steelers' inability to get all of their offensive weapons on the field at the same time? At the time of this article's release (July 26), Bell is expected to serve a four-game suspension for missing multiple drug tests. Working under that assumption, we saw plenty of evidence last year Pittsburgh is willing to lean on Williams just like it would Bell, so I made only minimal changes as I swapped out Bell's projections for Williams'. It also seems like a fairly safe bet the ex-Carolina Panther will maintain at least a bit role when Bell returns, so he could easily end up being an investment that keeps on providing positive returns again this year. The combination of skill and the Steelers' offensive line (as well as the team's willingness to use its backs in the passing game) are the main reasons the matchup lines of Bell and Williams do not contain any red. There are no shortage of good rush defenses on the schedule, although there is a three-game stretch (Weeks 10-12) in which Pittsburgh should have its way. Assuming at least one of the two backs are healthy, however, the Steelers should provide a weekly threat for 100 total yards and a touchdown in just about every contest.

Even without Martavis Bryant, this passing still figures to be as dynamic as any in the league, so let's not waste space extolling the virtues of Roethlisberger and Brown. The four yellows that appear next to Big Ben and three that follow Brown are legitimate, but it should come as no surprise if the former targets the latter well over 200 times this year (193 targets for Brown in 2015). When any quarterback is eyeballing the best receiver in the league that many times, matchups aren't going to matter all that much for fantasy owners. The trek is much more difficult for Wheaton, who should catch a break some of the time if he continues to work out of the slot as much as he did last year (326 of 457 routes), and Coates, who is the heavy favorite to fill Bryant's big-play outside role. Both players should be treated as WR4s to begin the season, and the schedule probably isn't going to help them too much to move up a tier before the bye. Much will depend on whether or not Wheaton's second-half connection with Big Ben last year carries over to this season and whether or not Coates is effective after amassing a single reception during the 2015 regular season. If the pair has any kind of sustained success in the first half, look out. Only the Bengals (Weeks 2 and 15) have the kind of corner depth to go somewhat toe-to-toe with Pittsburgh's receivers. Training camp will be critical for Green, who underwent offseason ankle surgery and didn't participate in OTAs. If he is cleared for camp and shows anything in the preseason, he could emerge as the biggest winner of the post-Bryant sweepstakes. Green is as good of a downfield threat at tight end as there is in the game today, which just happens to be what Bryant also does well. The obvious difference is the former San Diego Charger will do his work against safeties and linebackers, not cornerbacks. Owners should expect a bit of inconsistency early with some difficult matchups, but the second half should be smooth sailing outside of a Week 10 showdown with Cowboys S Byron Jones.

NFC North

 Chicago Bears
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
HOU PHI DAL DET IND JAC GB MIN bye TB NYG TEN SF DET GB WAS
QB Jay Cutler 33 17.8 17.8 71.3 71.3 1020 245 260 215 300
TD 5 1 1 2 1
INT 3 1 0 1 1
Ru Yards 65 25 15 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Jeremy Langford 24 10.5 8.5 42 34 220 45 80 60 35
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 60 15 0 25 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 0 2 3
RB Jordan Howard 23 5.6 5.1 22.5 20.5 130 25 15 55 35
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 15 0 5 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 2 0 1 0 1
RB Ka'Deem Carey 23 2.9 2.1 11.5 8.5 65 15 15 10 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 20 5 10 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 1 0 1
WR Alshon Jeffery 26 16.8 11 67 44 320 60 105 85 70
Re TD 2 0 1 1 0
Rec 23 5 7 6 5
WR Kevin White 24 18.4 12.9 73.5 51.5 335 85 55 75 120
Re TD 3 1 0 1 1
Rec 22 6 3 5 8
WR Eddie Royal 30 6.1 3.1 24.5 12.5 125 40 30 20 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 4 3 2 3
WR Josh Bellamy 27 2.6 1.4 10.5 5.5 55 10 15 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 1 1 2
TE Zach Miller 31 4 2 16 8 80 30 30 0 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 3 0 2

Ask the casual fantasy fan and they'll tell you Langford was the reason it was "easy" to let Matt Forte go. Ask the more nuanced observer and they'll tell you there are solid reasons why just about every outlet that covers Bears' football has said he'll be in a committee with Howard and Carey: he doesn't get the tough yards, commits too many drops and doesn't block very well. That's a lot to overcome in one offseason and provides plenty of reason as to why no Chicago back should be valued any higher than RB3. Langford & Co. don't have any impossible matchups awaiting them this season, but the combination of a committee attack (which seems to be HC John Fox's M.O.) and a glut of yellow after Week 6 is enough reason to steer clear from any of these backs. The most concerning factor, however, is how often Chicago will face high-powered offenses over the second half of the season. The Bears had a rusher post at least 20 carries six times last year, five from Forte. I'd be surprised if this year's squad gets half that many. Why? Chicago's defense should able to keep them in the majority of games, but it should become clear pretty quickly Jeffery and White will present the team with its best opportunity to score from about any point on the field. Furthermore, Howard is almost a lock to steal goal-line carries from Langford. Between the schedule and the possibility of a three-man rotation, there's just not much fantasy upside here.

The change from former play-caller Adam Gase to Dowell Loggains will be felt most in the passing game, even though the latter plans on sticking with the same offensive system. Gase has proven he has a way with quarterbacks and was able to coax a career-low interception total (at least in a season in which he played more than 10 games) out of Cutler. Loggains has yet to show the ability to forge that same connection with his passer in his time in the league. White's presence should go a long way in helping Cutler "get comfortable" with Loggains, but it seems hard to believe a player that has yet to take a NFL snap - even one as talented as White - can singlehandedly minimize the collective losses of Gase, Martellus Bennett and Forte (all of whom are better and/or more proven at their jobs than the men replacing them). Cutler is set up to start fast, especially if Houston is minus DE J.J. Watt, but it is hard to believe the enigmatic quarterback will be of much use in fantasy after September. The real intrigue in Chicago lies at the receiver position, where I fully expect White to overtake Jeffery as the preferred option. At the very least, I expect a 1A/1B setup as opposed to White playing second fiddle. Both players have their fair share of yellows, but only because I am more concerned about Cutler doing his part than I am about either Jeffery or White winning their individual matchups, so most of the yellows could be neutral matchups if you want to believe "Good Jay" will show up this season. Miller has the schedule to be the low-end TE1 he played like at times near the end of last season, but his track record of durability and the presence of White will probably rob him of most of the touchdown opportunities he had after Bennett was lost for the season. Even if Miller overcomes being the clear third option in a Cutler-led passing attack, he'll be hard-pressed to deliver in the fantasy playoffs.

 Detroit Lions
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
IND TEN GB CHI PHI LA WAS HOU MIN bye JAC MIN NO CHI NYG DAL
QB Matthew Stafford 28 21.8 21.8 87 87 1125 305 260 255 305
TD 7 1 2 1 3
INT 2 0 1 1 0
Ru Yards 40 5 15 10 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Ameer Abdullah 23 10 8.3 40 33 210 70 35 45 60
Ru TD 1 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 60 15 30 0 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 3 0 2
RB Theo Riddick 25 11 6.3 44 25 40 10 10 15 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 150 40 20 60 30
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 19 5 3 7 4
RB Zach Zenner 24 3.5 3.3 14 13 65 15 10 20 20
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 5 5 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 1 0 0 0
WR Golden Tate 28 17.3 10.5 69 42 360 85 115 70 90
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 27 9 7 5 6
WR Marvin Jones 26 14.3 9.3 57 37 250 70 50 55 75
Re TD 2 0 0 1 1
Rec 20 5 4 5 6
WR T.J. Jones 24 4.1 2.4 16.5 9.5 95 25 10 20 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 1 2 2
WR Jeremy Kerley 27 1.8 0.8 7 3 30 15 0 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 2 0 2 0
TE Eric Ebron 23 12.4 8.9 49.5 35.5 175 50 35 35 55
Re TD 3 1 1 0 1
Rec 14 4 3 2 5

As the best of both worlds (good inside runner with big-play ability and adept receiver), Abdullah should be the clear No. 1 back in Detroit. However, that doesn't appear to be what the Lions have in mind nor is it the way of the world anymore in today's NFL. Abdullah averaged 5.3 YPC over the last five games of the season when Detroit simplified some of its blocking schemes and the rookie began to take better care of the ball. Even then, however, he topped out at 13 carries over that stretch as Joique Bell stole more than his fair share of early-down work while Riddick continued to dominate the targets in the passing game. It seems hard to believe that approach will change in 2016 since Zenner and/or Steven Ridley both would seem to be more capable than Bell, and Abdullah missed the offseason after undergoing shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum. As such, it is difficult to put many greens in front of the running backs' schedule since they may all have about a 12-carry ceiling. IF Detroit can commit to Abdullah as the clear lead back on early downs, then owners could be in for a treat down the stretch. The final four weeks of the fantasy season feature some of the worst defenses versus running backs last season and only the Giants (Week 15) have reason to believe they'll be much better in 2016.

After last year's bye week (Week 9) - when then-newly promoted OC Jim Bob Cooter had a full two weeks to work with his new charges - the Lions went 6-2 and Stafford really took off as Cooter emphasized protecting the quarterback and the short passing game. Expect a similar approach this year, as the retirement of Calvin Johnson pretty much eliminates the "let-him-go-up-and-get-it" element from this offense. Stafford targeted his running backs 29 percent of the time following Cooter's promotion, which should shed some light on just how quick the ball was usually coming out. Whereas some wideouts on other teams we have covered so far may have received a pass on a difficult matchup due to their unique talent, both Tate and Marvin Jones have a legitimately "easy" schedule outside of Weeks 7-12. Volume should not be a problem for either player (particularly Tate), so it wouldn't be terribly surprising if Tate blows right past his previous career high in targets (143) for his first 100-catch season and Jones doesn't push 80 receptions. In this particular case, the same thing I said about the receivers' schedule applies to Stafford - tough in the middle and smooth on the edges. Ebron should be positioned to have a huge year as well based on his projected matchups and his new status as the only "matchup nightmare" in town; he should become the new favorite red-zone target for Stafford. Durability and drops have been his biggest bugaboos, so that will have to change if he hopes to eventually live up to his draft status as the No. 10 overall pick in 2014. A Week 16 matchup against Dallas and S Byron Jones is a bummer, but a small price to pay for a player that will be drafted as a TE2 most of the time this summer and could finish as a top-10 tight end.

 Green Bay Packers
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
JAC MIN DET bye NYG DAL CHI ATL IND TEN WAS PHI HOU SEA CHI MIN
QB Aaron Rodgers 32 28.8 28.8 86.4 86.4 885 325 295 265
TD 7 3 1 3
INT 1 0 1 0
Ru Yards 50 10 25 15
Ru TD 1 0 1 0
RB Eddie Lacy 26 14.7 11.7 44 35 225 55 85 85
Ru TD 1 0 0 1
Re Yards 65 20 35 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 3 5 1
RB James Starks 30 6.3 4.3 19 13 85 20 25 40
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 45 15 20 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 3 1
WR Randall Cobb 26 17 11.3 51 34 15 0 15 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 205 75 55 75
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 17 6 4 7
WR Jordy Nelson 31 14.3 9.7 43 29 230 115 65 50
Re TD 1 1 0 0
Rec 14 6 5 3
WR Jeff Janis 25 9.8 8.2 29.5 24.5 125 45 15 65
Re TD 2 1 0 1
Rec 5 2 1 2
WR Davante Adams 23 8.3 5.3 25 16 100 20 65 15
Re TD 1 0 1 0
Rec 9 2 5 2
TE Richard Rodgers 24 4.5 3.2 13.5 9.5 35 15 0 20
Re TD 1 0 0 1
Rec 4 2 0 2
TE Jared Cook 29 4.3 2.7 13 8 80 20 40 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 3 1

Lacy was supposed to be everything that was good about building a fantasy team around a running back last summer. He ended being the poster child of why it is increasingly difficult to do exactly that. Everyone knows about the weight gain, but HC Mike McCarthy was frustratingly evasive during the season when it came to his status each week. Only one offensive lineman started all 16 games and Nelson wasn't around to stretch the field, further complicating matters. The league thought so much of Starks - a player who started ahead of Lacy four times last year - that one team (the Patriots) expressed a bit of interest before he returned to Green Bay. With that as the backdrop, Lacy appears much lighter and more focused in 2016, which could pay off handsomely for owners who weren't jilted by last year's misadventure. Still, it is probably best to assume touches will be split 55/35/10 (John Crockett and/or new FB Aaron Ripkowski being the final 10 percent) until proven otherwise, which makes giving Lacy the benefit of the doubt on his yellow matchups difficult. At a second- or third-round cost, owners need to think long and hard about the risk McCarthy will pull the plug on Lacy whenever he gets off to a slow start in a game. As such, there is substantial risk in Lacy within the first 30 or so picks simply because we've already seen McCarthy doesn't care about what his former Pro Bowl back did for him over his first two seasons. Lacy and Starks should find their path to fantasy success much easier in the middle (between Weeks 6-12) and particularly difficult at the end, so one of the two - if not both - will probably need to rely on their contributions in the passing game (or the occasional goal-line plunge) in order to be consistently usable during the fantasy postseason.

Aaron Rodgers might have suffered through the best "off-year" by a quarterback in NFL history last season considering his 31:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, although his struggles were easily explainable: The aforementioned injuries to the front five along with the injuries to Nelson and Adams. Cobb failing to step as the new WR1. McCarthy's reluctance to use Janis until he had to. No hint of a consistent rushing attack or deep passing game. The band appears to be back together and healthy now, however, so perhaps Aaron Rodgers' return to the mountaintop at his position isn't far behind. The back end of the Packers' schedule is unusually difficult for all members of the passing game, so health will be a key if Rodgers is going to help the receivers produce during this difficult stretch. If there is any good news, it would be that potentially none of the top cornerbacks the Packers will face in the final weeks - specifically Josh Norman (Week 11), Johnathan Joseph (Week 13) or Richard Sherman (Week 14) - may be asked to shadow Nelson (Cobb will escape such treatment as he tends to hang out in the slot). Richard Rodgers was probably already due to lose some of last year's touchdowns after scoring eight as a rookie, but the difficult late schedule and the addition of Cook should pretty much seal it. I think both will tease owners with the occasional big game during the first half of the schedule, but I expect both to disappoint owners more often than not. The third receiver in Green Bay is almost always worth a roster spot in fantasy, and I am a big fan of Janis winning that job. Not only would his speed and size give the Packers' two viable downfield threats for a team that uses a lot of three-wide formations, but it would open up the field for Lacy and Cobb. However, McCarthy appears to be less thrilled about the idea than most owners. Adams has bulked up this offseason and McCarthy likes his high-point ability, meaning he'll probably be a red-zone staple regardless of how everything shakes out. If McCarthy announces the winner of the No. 3 competition during the preseason, owners should consider him a high-ceiling WR4.

 Minnesota Vikings
Pos Player Age PAvg NAvg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
TEN GB CAR NYG HOU bye PHI CHI DET WAS ARI DET DAL JAC IND GB
QB Teddy Bridgewater 23 17.8 17.8 71.1 71.1 990 245 265 190 290
TD 5 2 1 1 1
INT 2 1 1 0 0
Ru Yards 55 10 20 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Adrian Peterson 31 16 14.8 64 59 380 70 105 75 130
Ru TD 3 0 1 0 2
Re Yards 30 10 5 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 1 3 0
RB Jerick McKinnon 24 7.6 4.4 30.5 17.5 80 20 15 15 30
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 95 25 25 10 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 3 4 2 4
WR Stefon Diggs 22 12.8 8 51 32 260 65 80 45 70
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 19 4 6 4 5
WR Laquon Treadwell 21 11.3 8 45 32 200 50 35 75 40
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 13 3 2 5 3
WR Jarius Wright 26 5.8 3 23 12 120 15 45 20 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 2 4 2 3
WR Charles Johnson 27 2.6 1.4 10.5 5.5 55 20 10 0 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 2 1 0 2
TE Kyle Rudolph 26 12 8 48 32 200 45 55 25 75
Re TD 2 1 0 0 1
Rec 16 3 5 2 6
TE MyCole Pruitt 24 1.4 0.6 5.5 2.5 25 10 10 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 1 0 1

As sobering as it is for some of longtime fantasy fans, Peterson has reached the age where we need to be legitimately concerned about his workload (or at least the possibility that he may be entering his last 300-plus carry season). The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported last week the Vikings want to run more plays out of shotgun this season, which may not sound like a big deal until we consider there are pretty good reasons why Minnesota hasn't made the transition already: AP doesn't like to run out of the formation and has a career 3.8 YPC average on "gun runs". The fact the Vikings are trying this for a second straight year suggests they want to begin the process of transitioning from Peterson to Bridgewater as the most important player on offense, which may also signal a heavier use of McKinnon as well. Thus, it is possible AP may be reliant on time, situation and the ability of Minnesota's defense to let the offense play with the lead more than ever before. The degree to which the Vikings embrace the shotgun this year and the degree to which McKinnon steals Peterson's touches in 2016 figures to have more of an effect on his fantasy bottom line than the schedule. The three-time rushing champ faces as many difficult matchups in five weeks before the bye as he does in the 10 games after it (three). The four-game stretch to end the fantasy season looks particularly promising, although every one of those games as shootout potential if the Vikings' defense doesn't come to play.

It's entirely possible I was one year ahead of the Bridgewater breakout - something that seems more likely now when the combination of more shotgun plays (which is a good fit for the young signal-caller) and the addition of Treadwell is factored into the equation. Still, rolling the dice on that breakout seems like a bad bet considering the Vikings probably aren't going to need to score all that many points on a weekly basis with their defense likely to emerge as one of the NFL's best. Like Peterson, Bridgewater will find his stiffest competition before the bye and could become a matchup-based starter during the second half of the season. Much of that optimism is borne out of the likelihood the third-year quarterback has his best (and perhaps healthiest) supporting cast yet. Diggs appears set as the flanker and Treadwell the starting split end, but there doesn't figure to be a lot more clarity than that (such as whether or not Bridgewater will be more willing and better able to throw downfield) until we see some preseason games. Thus, I have given them identical matchup lines in all 15 games. Treadwell lacks deep speed, but that hasn't been a necessary ingredient for OC Norv Turner's best split ends over the years (Michael Irvin, Michael Westbrook and Vincent Jackson among them), so owners might be able to count on him being the primary deep threat in addition to a potential red-zone maven. The matchups aren't particularly favorable for any significant stretch of time for either receiver, but Peterson's presence should ensure single coverage for both players. More downfield throws would be good news for Rudolph as well. Still only 26 (27 in November), the sixth-year pro should be Bridgewater's favorite target in scoring territory, although volume inside the 10 and 20 will be working against Rudolph as long as Peterson is the centerpiece of the offense. Nevertheless, Rudolph should be able to manage his usual TE2 numbers against this schedule at the very least, and he could be poised for a much bigger season if Treadwell and/or Diggs show well enough to convince Turner and HC Mike Zimmer to open it up in 2016.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.