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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 200 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 2.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
9/1/16

PPR | 0.5 PPR | Non-PPR | Ks & D/STs

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Here we go again.

Five Big Boards in five days.

It's go time.

With just over a week to go before the NFL season opener and just under two weeks before most of the teams kick off, the time to talk has passed. As such, allow me to bypass the usual pleasantries this week and get to the good stuff.

While I will provide the bulk of my analysis this week into this article, I will add any insights that I think are particularly helpful to owners in standard, half-point, TFC and FFPC leagues in those respective Big Boards as the week progresses.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about two key points:

1) The standard the industry uses to measure accuracy among analysts is overall scoring, but I am more concerned with projected consistency and matchups. Consistency tends to lead to big fantasy numbers at the end of the season and championships while inconsistency and bad matchups at the wrong time usually lead to frustration. Someday, I hope the industry catches on to my way of thinking. Until then, Iíll try to win as many titles as possible and help you do the same.

2 ) Much like the past four seasons, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

Please note the different colors to the “Pos” column below; it is my hope taking this step will allow owners to delineate where one tier ends (regardless of position) and where another one begins, essentially using the same concept NFL teams do with a horizontal board during the NFL Draft. (Although it is not a perfect example, here is the kind of thing I am talking about in case the term “horizontal board” is unfamiliar to you.) When a player at one position interrupts a "run" at another position, you can generally assume the early part of that tier has ended. The fact each tier is a different color is merely to easily separate tiers; there is no hidden message or anything of that sort.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

Key:

OVR – Overall Rank

FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game

Success Score Index (SSI) – The sum of several position-specific attributes that I feel are important to fantasy production, weighted and scored. A perfect score is 1000, but it may help to move the decimal point one spot to the left and think of each score as a percentage. It may also help to think of that percentage as the likelihood that player will produce at the level I have projected him if his current environment stays roughly the same as it is now.

Value - The Value over Replacement Player (VORP) concept for a two-RB, two-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples and oranges. At RB and WR, it gets a bit trickier. Because I wanted to remain unbiased here, I took the standard deviation from the 24th-ranked player at each position. All RBs and WRs who did not fit into the first 24 at their positions were then put into a "flex pool" and the standard deviation was taken from the 12th-ranked player there, which explains why there are numbers in blue this week.

Just so you know what you are getting yourself into, here are some of the attributes I weighed and scored at each position:

Quarterback – Talent, aggressiveness of the offensive scheme, durability, offensive line play and difficulty of schedule.

Running back – Talent, job security, durability, percentage of team's backfield touches and red-zone importance.

Wide receiver – Talent, targets/game, scheme fit and the quality of quarterback play.

Tight end – Talent, importance to the team in the red zone, targets/game, scheme fit and the quality of quarterback play.

Reminders:

1. This Big Board is designed for leagues which require owners to start one quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, a tight end and a flex.

2. "Value" and SSI are tools I use to help me set up the Big Boards. I do not follow either one blindly, since there has to be a human component in such endeavors in order to account for certain "intangibles".

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 200
OVR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value SSI FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 WR1 Antonio Brown PIT 28 116.67 985.0 16.0 64.0
2 WR2 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 23 106.95 971.3 17.4 69.5
3 WR3 Julio Jones ATL 27 108.72 973.8 18.4 73.5
4 RB1 David Johnson ARI 24 129.05 907.5 15.5 62.0
5 RB2 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 21 127.99 906.0 18.8 75.0
6 WR4 A.J. Green CIN 28 88.39 945.0 14.5 58.0
7 WR5 Allen Robinson JAC 23 80.43 933.8 13.5 54.0
8 RB3 Lamar Miller HOU 25 127.28 905.0 17.6 70.5
9 RB4 Todd Gurley LA 22 124.45 901.0 17.9 71.5
10 RB5 Adrian Peterson MIN 31 122.51 898.3 13.3 53.0
11 WR6 Brandon Marshall NYJ 32 73.36 923.8 13.5 54.0
12 TE1 Rob Gronkowski NE 27 112.25 917.5 10.1 40.5
13 RB6 Eddie Lacy GB 26 68.59 822.0 11.7 35.0
14 WR7 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 24 64.52 911.3 12.8 51.0
15 RB7 Le'Veon Bell PIT 24 118.44 892.5 10.5 10.5
16 WR8 Dez Bryant DAL 27 67.18 915.0 12.9 51.5
17 WR9 Mike Evans TB 23 61.87 907.5 10.3 41.0
18 WR10 Randall Cobb GB 26 50.56 891.5 11.3 34.0
19 RB8 LeSean McCoy BUF 28 82.38 841.5 10.5 42.0
20 WR11 T.Y. Hilton IND 26 49.85 890.5 11.8 47.0
21 WR12 Keenan Allen SD 24 54.80 897.5 11.4 45.5
22 RB9 Devonta Freeman ATL 24 43.84 787.0 12.8 51.0
23 WR13 Amari Cooper OAK 22 45.96 885.0 12.5 50.0
24 WR14 Sammy Watkins BUF 23 31.82 816.3 8.8 35.0
25 WR15 Alshon Jeffery CHI 26 19.45 847.5 11.0 44.0
26 WR16 Jordy Nelson GB 31 14.14 840.0 9.7 29.0
27 WR17 Brandin Cooks NO 22 15.91 842.5 10.0 40.0
28 RB10 Mark Ingram NO 26 67.53 820.5 12.6 50.5
29 RB11 Doug Martin TB 27 82.91 842.3 12.3 49.0
30 RB12 Jamaal Charles KC 29 91.04 853.8 14.9 59.5
31 QB1 Aaron Rodgers GB 32 76.54 927.5 28.8 86.4
32 QB2 Cam Newton CAR 27 73.36 923.0 26.2 104.6
33 WR18 Donte Moncrief IND 23 36.24 871.3 12.5 50.0
34 WR19 Eric Decker NYJ 29 16.97 844.0 11.9 47.5
35 WR20 Jarvis Landry MIA 23 38.89 875.0 12.0 48.0
36 TE2 Jordan Reed WAS 26 87.50 882.5 9.6 38.5
37 WR21 Jeremy Maclin KC 28 22.10 802.5 9.9 39.5
38 WR22 Demaryius Thomas DEN 28 35.36 870.0 10.6 42.5
39 RB13 Jeremy Hill CIN 23 38.01 778.8 12.0 48.0
40 TE3 Greg Olsen CAR 31 44.19 821.3 8.8 35.0
41 QB3 Russell Wilson SEA 23 71.06 919.8 26.8 107.2
42 QB4 Drew Brees NO 37 60.81 905.3 26.3 105.2
43 QB5 Andrew Luck IND 26 70.53 919.0 27.9 111.6
44 RB14 Danny Woodhead SD 31 37.48 778.0 11.8 47.0
45 RB15 Carlos Hyde SF 24 65.41 817.5 15.1 60.5
46 RB16 Matt Forte NYJ 30 26.87 763.0 9.3 37.0
47 RB17 Latavius Murray OAK 26 61.52 812.0 12.6 50.5
48 RB18 C.J. Anderson DEN 25 22.45 756.8 12.6 50.5
49 WR23 Golden Tate DET 28 7.95 831.3 9.5 38.0
50 WR24 Sterling Shepard NYG 23 2.65 823.8 9.5 38.0
51 RB19 Frank Gore IND 33 8.84 737.5 8.6 34.5
52 TE4 Travis Kelce KC 26 11.31 774.8 8.6 34.5
53 WR25 Marvin Jones DET 26 30.05 813.8 9.1 36.5
54 RB20 Thomas Rawls SEA 23 3.54 730.0 14.0 56.0
55 WR26 Doug Baldwin SEA 27 0.00 820.0 12.6 50.5
56 WR27 Julian Edelman NE 30 10.61 835.0 8.9 35.5
57 RB23 Jeremy Langford CHI 24 0.53 725.8 11.3 45.0
58 RB24 Giovani Bernard CIN 24 0.00 725.0 5.8 23.0
59 WR27 Michael Floyd ARI 26 7.07 781.3 10.4 41.5
60 WR28 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 25 13.26 790.0 8.8 35.0
61 WR29 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 29 21.39 801.5 10.0 40.0
62 TE5 Coby Fleener NO 27 13.26 777.5 9.3 37.0
63 TE6 Delanie Walker TEN 32 45.43 823.0 8.1 32.5
64 WR30 Tyler Lockett SEA 23 19.45 743.8 9.6 38.5
65 WR31 DeSean Jackson WAS 29 38.01 717.5 8.4 33.5
66 WR32 John Brown ARI 26 24.75 806.3 12.6 50.5
67 RB25 Rashad Jennings NYG 31 63.29 681.8 10.8 43.0
68 RB26 DeMarco Murray TEN 28 35.36 721.3 9.8 39.0
69 RB27 Melvin Gordon SD 23 37.12 718.8 10.8 43.0
70 QB6 Eli Manning NYG 35 47.20 886.0 23.2 92.7
71 QB7 Philip Rivers SD 34 47.55 886.5 23.5 93.9
72 TE7 Antonio Gates SD 36 5.30 751.3 10.1 40.5
73 WR33 Michael Crabtree OAK 28 22.10 802.5 9.9 39.5
74 WR34 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 33 25.63 807.5 8.8 35.0
75 TE8 Gary Barnidge CLE 30 4.24 764.8 8.1 32.5
76 WR35 DeVante Parker MIA 23 10.61 786.3 9.1 36.5
77 WR36 Josh Gordon CLE 25 45.08 707.5 0.0 0.0
78 RB28 Derrick Henry TEN 22 1.24 726.8 6.6 26.5
79 QB8 Tom Brady NE 39 57.98 901.3 0.0 0.0
80 WR37 Jordan Matthews PHI 24 11.49 755.0 7.3 22.0
81 RB29 Ryan Mathews PHI 28 32.70 725.0 10.7 32.0
82 RB30 Charles Sims TB 25 69.65 672.8 6.6 26.5
83 RB31 Jonathan Stewart CAR 29 42.07 711.8 8.9 35.5
84 WR38 Corey Coleman CLE 22 17.68 746.3 7.8 31.0
85 QB9 Carson Palmer ARI 36 66.82 913.8 26.1 104.2
86 QB10 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 34 70.53 919.0 22.1 88.4
87 RB32 DeAngelo Williams PIT 33 36.24 720.0 15.9 63.5
88 RB33 Spencer Ware KC 24 50.91 699.3 4.6 18.5
89 RB34 Chris Ivory JAC 28 40.66 713.8 10.5 42.0
90 WR39 Stefon Diggs MIN 22 21.21 741.3 10.4 41.5
91 WR40 Allen Hurns JAC 24 2.65 767.5 8.9 35.5
92 WR41 Tavon Austin LA 25 38.01 717.5 7.1 28.5
93 RB35 Ameer Abdullah DET 23 58.87 688.0 8.1 32.5
94 TE9 Julius Thomas JAC 28 16.79 782.5 10.9 43.5
95 TE10 Martellus Bennett NE 29 4.24 764.8 7.5 30.0
96 QB11 Blake Bortles JAC 24 25.99 856.0 24.5 97.8
97 QB12 Kirk Cousins WAS 28 3.36 814.5 22.5 89.9
98 RB36 Matt Jones WAS 23 41.01 713.3 12.8 51.0
99 RB37 Arian Foster MIA 30 76.01 663.8 9.0 36.0
100 RB38 Isaiah Crowell CLE 23 4.42 731.3 9.4 37.5
101 RB39 T.J. Yeldon JAC 22 82.73 654.3 6.5 26.0
102 RB40 Christine Michael SEA 25 93.34 639.3 2.9 11.5
103 TE11 Tyler Eifert CIN 25 23.86 792.5 5.5 5.5
104 WR42 Kevin White CHI 24 20.33 800.0 7.1 28.5
105 WR43 Tajae Sharpe TEN 21 45.08 707.5 6.3 25.0
106 RB41 Duke Johnson CLE 22 37.12 718.8 6.4 25.5
107 WR44 Mike Wallace BAL 30 63.64 681.3 8.8 35.0
108 RB42 Tevin Coleman ATL 23 68.06 675.0 8.5 34.0
109 QB13 Tyrod Taylor BUF 27 22.10 788.0 19.1 76.3
110 WR45 Vincent Jackson TB 33 29.17 730.0 8.5 34.0
111 WR46 Travis Benjamin SD 26 43.31 710.0 9.6 38.5
112 TE12 Zach Ertz PHI 25 22.10 790.0 7.3 22.0
113 QB14 Matthew Stafford DET 28 0.00 819.3 23.5 93.8
114 TE13 Dwayne Allen IND 26 68.06 662.5 5.9 23.5
115 WR47 Markus Wheaton PIT 25 38.89 716.3 10.1 40.5
116 WR48 Michael Thomas NO 21 33.59 723.8 7.0 28.0
117 WR49 Will Fuller HOU 22 95.46 636.3 8.3 33.0
118 WR50 Kenny Stills MIA 24 89.27 645.0 6.6 26.5
119 RB43 LeGarrette Blount NE 29 103.41 625.0 6.4 25.5
120 WR51 Brandon LaFell CIN 29 94.58 637.5 4.9 19.5
121 WR52 Phillip Dorsett IND 23 53.03 696.3 9.8 39.0
122 RB44 Bilal Powell NYJ 27 117.03 605.8 5.3 21.0
123 RB45 James White NE 24 55.68 692.5 11.8 47.0
124 WR53 Willie Snead NO 23 70.71 671.3 4.6 18.5
125 WR54 Kamar Aiken BAL 27 33.59 723.8 6.6 26.5
126 WR55 Devin Funchess CAR 22 73.36 667.5 6.0 24.0
127 QB15 Derek Carr OAK 25 19.98 791.0 22.8 91.3
128 TE14 Jared Cook GB 29 103.41 612.5 9.0 27.0
129 TE15 Jason Witten DAL 34 33.76 711.0 7.1 28.5
130 QB21 Marcus Mariota TEN 22 41.72 760.3 20.1 80.5
131 QB17 Jameis Winston TB 22 18.21 793.5 19.6 78.3
132 RB46 Terrance West BAL 25 76.90 662.5 9.3 37.0
133 WR56 Rishard Matthews TEN 26 77.78 657.5 6.5 26.0
134 WR57 Mohamed Sanu ATL 27 116.67 606.3 3.8 15.0
135 WR58 Ted Ginn Jr. CAR 30 126.40 592.5 5.9 23.5
136 TE16 Clive Walford OAK 24 30.94 715.0 7.9 31.5
137 TE17 Virgil Green DEN 28 52.15 685.0 4.9 19.5
138 RB47 Chris Johnson ARI 30 159.81 545.3 5.1 20.5
139 RB48 Devontae Booker DEN 24 93.69 638.8 6.8 27.0
140 RB49 Jerick McKinnon MIN 24 133.64 582.3 4.4 17.5
141 WR58 Tyler Boyd CIN 21 92.81 640.0 2.9 11.5
142 WR59 Eli Rogers PIT 23 70.71 671.3 6.1 24.5
143 TE18 Eric Ebron DET 23 0.00 758.8 8.9 35.5
144 TE19 Vance McDonald SF 26 83.97 640.0 5.4 21.5
145 TE20 Jimmy Graham SEA 29 63.64 668.8 5.1 20.5
146 RB50 Kenneth Dixon BAL 22 115.44 608.0 0.0 0.0
147 RB51 Darren Sproles PHI 33 137.00 577.5 5.5 16.5
148 QB18 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 33 8.31 807.5 19.6 78.3
149 QB19 Ryan Tannehill MIA 28 8.31 807.5 22.2 88.8
150 TE21 Kyle Rudolph MIN 26 68.94 661.3 8.0 32.0
151 QB20 Matt Ryan ATL 31 37.48 766.3 21.6 86.5
152 RB52 Justin Forsett BAL 30 112.78 611.8 7.9 31.5
153 RB53 Theo Riddick DET 25 92.28 640.8 5.9 23.5
154 WR60 Anquan Boldin DET 35 68.94 673.8 6.1 24.5
155 WR61 Torrey Smith SF 27 0.00 771.3 6.9 27.5
156 RB54 C.J. Spiller NO 29 144.07 567.5 6.5 26.0
157 RB55 Shaun Draughn SF 28 162.99 540.8 4.0 16.0
158 RB56 Jay Ajayi MIA 23 167.05 535.0 2.9 11.5
159 WR62 Davante Adams GB 23 77.78 661.3 5.3 16.0
160 RB57 DeAndre Washington OAK 23 137.71 576.5 5.3 21.0
161 RB58 James Starks GB 30 172.36 527.5 4.3 13.0
162 TE22 Zach Miller CHI 31 100.06 617.3 4.1 16.5
163 RB59 Alfred Morris DAL 27 194.81 495.8 3.8 15.0
164 RB60 Tim Hightower NO 30 172.00 528.0 1.9 7.5
165 TE23 Will Tye NYG 24 91.04 630.0 4.3 17.0
166 TE24 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 23 68.06 662.5 4.1 16.5
167 QB21 Andy Dalton CIN 28 8.49 807.3 16.6 66.2
168 QB22 Robert Griffin III CLE 26 73.19 715.8 19.8 79.0
169 WR63 Jermaine Kearse SEA 26 105.18 622.5 7.4 29.5
170 WR64 Terrance Williams DAL 26 148.49 561.3 5.8 23.0
171 RB61 Shane Vereen NYG 27 168.82 532.5 5.4 21.5
172 TE25 Charles Clay BUF 27 63.64 668.8 6.0 24.0
173 WR65 Chris Hogan NE 27 153.80 553.8 2.9 11.5
174 RB62 Tyler Ervin HOU 22 170.59 530.0 0.0 0.0
175 RB63 Darren McFadden DAL 29 178.54 518.8 7.3 14.5
176 WR66 Braxton Miller HOU 23 110.49 615.0 7.0 28.0
177 RB64 Benny Cunningham LA 26 474.0 2.8 11.0
178 WR67 Seth Roberts OAK 25 120.21 601.3 6.0 24.0
179 WR68 Chris Conley KC 23 119.32 602.5 5.0 20.0
180 WR69 Breshad Perriman BAL 22 100.76 628.8 4.9 19.5
181 WR70 Terrelle Pryor CLE 27 121.09 600.0 7.9 31.5
182 RB65 Charcandrick West KC 25 201.53 486.3 1.6 6.5
183 WR71 Josh Doctson WAS 23 89.27 645.0 4.8 19.0
184 RB66 Dion Lewis NE 25 13.26 752.5 0.0 0.0
185 RB67 C.J. Prosise SEA 22 132.23 584.3 4.3 17.0
186 QB23 Brock Osweiler HOU 25 74.42 714.0 20.6 82.4
187 QB24 Joe Flacco BAL 31 44.37 756.5 21.4 85.4
188 TE26 Crockett Gillmore BAL 24 30.94 715.0 5.9 23.5
189 TE27 Dennis Pitta BAL 31 89.27 632.5 5.1 20.5
190 WR72 Eddie Royal CHI 30 154.68 552.5 4.6 18.5
191 WR73 Dorial Green-Beckham PHI 23 101.65 627.5 4.3 13.0
192 WR74 Quinton Patton SF 26 212.13 471.3 6.4 25.5
193 RB68 Khiry Robinson NYJ 26 182.08 513.8 2.5 10.0
194 WR75 Sammie Coates PIT 23 33.59 723.8 0.6 2.5
195 WR76 Laquon Treadwell MIN 21 46.85 705.0 6.0 24.0
196 QB25 Alex Smith KC 32 53.39 743.8 20.5 81.9
197 WR77 Jamison Crowder WAS 23 95.46 636.3 3.4 13.5
198 WR78 Pierre Garcon WAS 30 94.58 637.5 4.1 16.5
199 RB69 Paul Perkins NYG 21 150.61 558.3 1.9 7.5
200 WR79 Jaron Brown ARI 26 195.34 495.0 0.8 3.0


Next: PPR Big Board | 0.5 PPR Big Board

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.