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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 200 Big Board, Half-Point PPR: Version 2.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
9/1/16

PPR | 0.5 PPR | Non-PPR | Ks & D/STs

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Here we go again.

Five Big Boards in five days.

It's go time.

With just over a week to go before the NFL season opener and just under two weeks before most of the teams kick off, the time to talk has passed. As such, allow me to bypass the usual pleasantries this week and get to the good stuff.

While I will provide the bulk of my analysis this week into this article, I will add any insights that I think are particularly helpful to owners in standard, half-point, TFC and FFPC leagues in those respective Big Boards as the week progresses.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about two key points:

1) The standard the industry uses to measure accuracy among analysts is overall scoring, but I am more concerned with projected consistency and matchups. Consistency tends to lead to big fantasy numbers at the end of the season and championships while inconsistency and bad matchups at the wrong time usually lead to frustration. Someday, I hope the industry catches on to my way of thinking. Until then, Iíll try to win as many titles as possible and help you do the same.

2 ) Much like the past four seasons, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

Please note the different colors to the “Pos” column below; it is my hope taking this step will allow owners to delineate where one tier ends (regardless of position) and where another one begins, essentially using the same concept NFL teams do with a horizontal board during the NFL Draft. (Although it is not a perfect example, here is the kind of thing I am talking about in case the term “horizontal board” is unfamiliar to you.) When a player at one position interrupts a "run" at another position, you can generally assume the early part of that tier has ended. The fact each tier is a different color is merely to easily separate tiers; there is no hidden message or anything of that sort.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

Key:

OVR – Overall Rank

FPts - Fantasy points scored

FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game

Success Score Index (SSI) – The sum of several position-specific attributes that I feel are important to fantasy production, weighted and scored. A perfect score is 1000, but it may help to move the decimal point one spot to the left and think of each score as a percentage. It may also help to think of that percentage as the likelihood that player will produce at the level I have projected him if his current environment stays roughly the same as it is now.

Value - The Value over Replacement Player (VORP) concept for a two-RB, three-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB and WR, it gets a bit trickier. Because I wanted to remain unbiased here, I took the standard deviation from the 24th-ranked player at RB and 36th-ranked player at receiver. All players who did not fit into the first 24 at RB and first 36 at WR were then put into a "flex pool" and the standard deviation was taken from the 12th-ranked player there, which explains why there are numbers in blue this week.

Just so you know what you are getting yourself into, here are some of the attributes I weighed and scored at each position:

Quarterback – Talent, aggressiveness of the offensive scheme, durability, offensive line play and difficulty of schedule.

Running back – Talent, job security, durability, percentage of team's backfield touches and red-zone importance.

Wide receiver – Talent, targets/game, scheme fit and the quality of quarterback play.

Tight end – Talent, importance to the team in the red zone, targets/game, scheme fit and the quality of quarterback play.

Reminders:

1. This Big Board is designed for leagues which require owners to start one quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, a tight end and a flex.

2. "Value" and SSI are tools I use to help me set up the Big Boards. I do not follow either one blindly, since there has to be a human component in such endeavors in order to account for certain "intangibles".

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Half-Point PPR format:

 Half-Point PPR Big Board - Top 200
OVR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value SSI FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 WR1 Antonio Brown PIT 28 151.14 985.00 19.5 78.0
2 WR2 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 23 141.42 971.25 21.5 86.0
3 WR3 Julio Jones ATL 27 143.19 973.75 22.8 91.0
4 RB1 David Johnson ARI 24 129.05 907.50 17.4 69.5
5 WR4 A.J. Green CIN 28 122.86 945.00 18.0 72.0
6 RB2 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 21 127.99 906.00 19.8 79.0
7 RB3 Lamar Miller HOU 25 127.28 905.00 19.4 77.5
8 WR5 Allen Robinson JAC 23 114.90 933.75 16.6 66.5
9 WR6 Brandon Marshall NYJ 32 107.83 923.75 16.8 67.0
10 RB4 Todd Gurley LA 22 124.45 901.00 19.1 76.5
11 RB5 Adrian Peterson MIN 31 122.51 898.30 13.9 55.5
12 TE1 Rob Gronkowski NE 27 112.25 917.50 12.8 51.0
13 WR7 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 24 98.99 911.25 16.0 64.0
14 RB6 Eddie Lacy GB 26 68.59 822.00 13.2 39.5
15 RB7 Le'Veon Bell PIT 24 118.44 892.50 12.0 12.0
16 WR8 Keenan Allen SD 24 89.27 897.50 14.9 59.5
17 WR9 Dez Bryant DAL 27 101.65 915.00 15.8 63.0
18 WR10 Randall Cobb GB 26 85.03 891.50 14.2 42.5
19 WR11 Mike Evans TB 23 96.34 907.50 13.5 54.0
20 WR12 T.Y. Hilton IND 26 84.32 890.50 14.8 59.0
21 RB8 LeSean McCoy BUF 28 82.38 841.50 12.0 48.0
22 RB9 Devonta Freeman ATL 24 43.84 787.00 14.8 59.0
23 WR13 Sammy Watkins BUF 23 31.82 816.25 11.3 45.0
24 WR14 Amari Cooper OAK 22 80.43 885.00 15.6 62.5
25 WR15 Brandin Cooks NO 22 50.38 842.50 12.5 50.0
26 WR16 Alshon Jeffery CHI 26 53.92 847.50 13.9 55.5
27 WR17 Jordy Nelson GB 31 48.61 840.00 12.0 36.0
28 RB10 Mark Ingram NO 26 67.53 820.50 14.5 58.0
29 WR18 Donte Moncrief IND 23 70.71 871.25 15.3 61.0
30 WR19 Eric Decker NYJ 29 51.44 844.00 14.6 58.5
31 WR20 Jarvis Landry MIA 23 73.36 875.00 15.4 61.5
32 RB11 Jamaal Charles KC 29 91.04 853.80 17.3 69.0
33 RB12 Doug Martin TB 27 82.91 842.30 13.3 53.0
34 WR21 Demaryius Thomas DEN 28 69.83 870.00 13.5 54.0
35 QB1 Aaron Rodgers GB 32 76.54 927.50 28.1 84.2
36 QB2 Cam Newton CAR 27 73.36 923.00 26.2 104.6
37 WR22 Jeremy Maclin KC 28 22.10 802.50 12.4 49.5
38 TE2 Jordan Reed WAS 26 87.50 882.50 12.4 49.5
39 TE3 Greg Olsen CAR 31 44.19 821.30 11.1 44.5
40 RB13 Danny Woodhead SD 31 37.48 778.00 14.4 57.5
41 RB14 Matt Forte NYJ 30 26.87 763.00 10.9 43.5
42 RB15 Jeremy Hill CIN 23 38.01 778.80 12.4 49.5
43 QB3 Russell Wilson SEA 23 71.06 919.75 26.8 107.2
44 QB4 Drew Brees NO 37 60.81 905.25 26.3 105.2
45 QB5 Andrew Luck IND 26 70.53 919.00 27.9 111.6
46 RB16 Carlos Hyde SF 24 65.41 817.50 16.3 65.0
47 RB17 Latavius Murray OAK 26 61.52 812.00 13.5 54.0
48 RB18 C.J. Anderson DEN 25 22.45 756.80 14.0 56.0
49 WR23 Golden Tate DET 28 42.43 831.25 12.3 49.0
50 WR24 Julian Edelman NE 30 45.08 835.00 12.8 51.0
51 WR25 Marvin Jones DET 26 30.05 813.75 11.6 46.5
52 WR26 Doug Baldwin SEA 27 34.47 820.00 15.5 62.0
53 TE4 Travis Kelce KC 26 11.31 774.80 10.8 43.0
54 RB19 Frank Gore IND 33 8.84 737.50 9.8 39.0
55 WR27 Sterling Shepard NYG 23 37.12 823.75 12.3 49.0
56 RB20 Jeremy Langford CHI 24 0.53 725.80 12.3 49.0
57 RB21 Giovani Bernard CIN 24 0.00 725.00 7.6 30.5
58 RB22 Thomas Rawls SEA 23 3.54 730.00 14.6 58.5
59 WR28 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 29 21.39 801.50 12.6 50.5
60 WR29 Michael Floyd ARI 26 7.07 781.25 12.5 50.0
61 TE5 Coby Fleener NO 27 13.26 777.50 11.8 47.0
62 TE6 Delanie Walker TEN 32 45.43 823.00 11.1 44.5
63 WR30 DeSean Jackson WAS 29 1.77 717.50 10.0 40.0
64 WR31 John Brown ARI 26 24.75 806.25 14.8 59.0
65 RB23 Rashad Jennings NYG 31 27.05 681.80 12.0 48.0
66 WR32 Tyler Lockett SEA 23 16.79 743.75 11.8 47.0
67 WR33 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 25 13.26 790.00 10.5 42.0
68 RB24 DeMarco Murray TEN 28 0.88 721.30 11.0 44.0
69 QB6 Eli Manning NYG 35 47.20 886.00 23.2 92.7
70 QB7 Philip Rivers SD 34 47.55 886.50 23.5 93.9
71 WR34 Michael Crabtree OAK 28 22.10 802.50 12.9 51.5
72 WR35 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 33 25.63 807.50 11.4 45.5
73 RB25 Charles Sims TB 25 33.41 672.80 8.9 35.5
74 RB26 Melvin Gordon SD 23 0.88 718.80 12.0 48.0
75 WR36 Jordan Matthews PHI 24 24.75 755.00 9.5 28.5
76 WR37 DeVante Parker MIA 23 10.61 786.25 11.4 45.5
77 QB8 Tom Brady NE 39 57.98 901.25 0.0 0.0
78 TE7 Antonio Gates SD 36 5.30 751.30 12.8 51.0
79 WR38 Josh Gordon CLE 25 8.84 707.50 0.0 0.0
80 RB27 Derrick Henry TEN 22 1.24 726.80 7.3 29.0
81 RB28 Ryan Mathews PHI 28 3.54 725.00 11.5 34.5
82 TE8 Gary Barnidge CLE 30 4.24 764.80 10.3 41.0
83 WR39 Corey Coleman CLE 22 18.56 746.25 9.6 38.5
84 WR40 Stefon Diggs MIN 22 15.03 741.25 13.0 52.0
85 WR41 Tavon Austin LA 25 1.77 717.50 8.6 34.5
86 RB29 T.J. Yeldon JAC 22 46.49 654.30 8.3 33.0
87 RB30 Jonathan Stewart CAR 29 5.83 711.80 9.3 37.0
88 WR42 Allen Hurns JAC 24 33.59 767.50 11.0 44.0
89 QB9 Carson Palmer ARI 36 66.82 913.75 26.1 104.2
90 QB10 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 34 70.53 919.00 22.1 88.4
91 RB31 DeAngelo Williams PIT 33 0.00 720.00 17.5 70.0
92 RB32 Spencer Ware KC 24 14.67 699.30 4.8 19.0
93 RB33 Chris Ivory JAC 28 4.42 713.80 11.0 44.0
94 TE9 Julius Thomas JAC 28 16.79 782.50 13.5 54.0
95 RB34 Isaiah Crowell CLE 23 4.42 731.30 10.0 40.0
96 QB11 Blake Bortles JAC 24 25.99 856.00 24.5 97.8
97 QB12 Kirk Cousins WAS 28 3.36 814.50 22.5 89.9
98 TE10 Martellus Bennett NE 29 4.24 764.80 9.5 38.0
99 RB35 Duke Johnson CLE 22 0.88 718.80 8.1 32.5
100 RB36 Ameer Abdullah DET 23 22.63 688.00 8.9 35.5
101 WR43 Vincent Jackson TB 33 7.07 730.00 10.5 42.0
102 TE11 Zach Ertz PHI 25 22.10 790.00 9.8 29.5
103 WR44 Kevin White CHI 24 20.33 800.00 9.4 37.5
104 RB37 Matt Jones WAS 23 4.77 713.30 13.8 55.0
105 RB38 Arian Foster MIA 30 39.77 663.80 10.4 41.5
106 TE12 Tyler Eifert CIN 25 23.86 792.50 7.5 7.5
107 WR45 Tajae Sharpe TEN 21 8.84 707.50 8.3 33.0
108 RB39 Christine Michael SEA 25 57.10 639.30 2.9 11.5
109 QB13 Tyrod Taylor BUF 27 22.10 788.00 19.1 76.3
110 WR46 Mike Wallace BAL 30 27.40 681.25 10.3 41.0
111 QB14 Matthew Stafford DET 28 0.00 819.25 23.5 93.8
112 RB40 Tevin Coleman ATL 23 31.82 675.00 9.5 38.0
113 RB41 Bilal Powell NYJ 27 80.79 605.80 6.5 26.0
114 WR47 Markus Wheaton PIT 25 2.65 716.25 11.8 47.0
115 WR48 Travis Benjamin SD 26 7.07 710.00 11.5 46.0
116 TE13 Dwayne Allen IND 26 68.06 662.50 7.1 28.5
117 WR49 Michael Thomas NO 21 2.65 723.75 8.5 34.0
118 WR50 Willie Snead NO 23 34.47 671.25 6.9 27.5
119 RB42 James White NE 24 19.45 692.50 14.1 56.5
120 WR51 Kenny Stills MIA 24 53.03 645.00 7.9 31.5
121 WR52 Will Fuller HOU 22 59.22 636.25 10.3 41.0
122 TE14 Jason Witten DAL 34 33.76 711.00 9.3 37.0
123 QB15 Derek Carr OAK 25 19.98 791.00 22.8 91.3
124 WR53 Kamar Aiken BAL 27 2.65 723.75 8.9 35.5
125 WR54 Phillip Dorsett IND 23 16.79 696.25 11.8 47.0
126 WR55 Mohamed Sanu ATL 27 80.43 606.25 5.4 21.5
127 WR56 Devin Funchess CAR 22 37.12 667.50 7.6 30.5
128 RB43 Darren Sproles PHI 33 100.76 577.50 7.7 23.0
129 RB44 LeGarrette Blount NE 29 67.18 625.00 6.4 25.5
130 QB16 Marcus Mariota TEN 22 41.72 760.25 20.1 80.5
131 QB17 Jameis Winston TB 22 18.21 793.50 19.6 78.3
132 TE15 Jared Cook GB 29 103.41 612.50 10.8 32.5
133 TE16 Eric Ebron DET 23 0.00 758.80 10.6 42.5
134 TE17 Clive Walford OAK 24 30.94 715.00 9.8 39.0
135 RB45 Chris Johnson ARI 30 123.57 545.30 5.3 21.0
136 RB46 Devontae Booker DEN 24 57.45 638.80 7.8 31.0
137 WR57 Rishard Matthews TEN 26 44.19 657.50 8.3 33.0
138 TE18 Virgil Green DEN 28 52.15 685.00 6.5 26.0
139 TE19 Vance McDonald SF 26 83.97 640.00 6.9 27.5
140 RB47 Terrance West BAL 25 40.66 662.50 10.0 40.0
141 RB48 Theo Riddick DET 25 56.04 640.80 7.8 31.0
142 WR58 Brandon LaFell CIN 29 58.34 637.50 6.0 24.0
143 WR59 Ted Ginn Jr. CAR 30 90.16 592.50 6.9 27.5
144 WR60 Tyler Boyd CIN 21 56.57 640.00 4.3 17.0
145 QB18 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 33 8.31 807.50 19.6 78.3
146 QB19 Ryan Tannehill MIA 28 8.31 807.50 22.2 88.8
147 RB49 C.J. Spiller NO 29 107.83 567.50 8.1 32.5
148 RB50 Shaun Draughn SF 28 126.75 540.80 5.1 20.5
149 WR61 Eli Rogers PIT 23 34.47 671.25 7.9 31.5
150 WR62 Torrey Smith SF 27 0.00 771.25 8.4 33.5
151 RB51 Kenneth Dixon BAL 22 79.20 608.00 0.0 0.0
152 RB52 Jerick McKinnon MIN 24 97.40 582.30 6.0 24.0
153 RB53 Jay Ajayi MIA 23 130.81 535.00 3.5 14.0
154 TE20 Kyle Rudolph MIN 26 68.94 661.30 10.0 40.0
155 TE21 Jimmy Graham SEA 29 63.64 668.80 6.8 27.0
156 QB20 Matt Ryan ATL 31 37.48 766.25 21.6 86.5
157 RB54 DeAndre Washington OAK 23 101.47 576.50 6.6 26.5
158 RB55 Justin Forsett BAL 30 76.54 611.80 9.4 37.5
159 RB56 James Starks GB 30 136.12 527.50 5.3 16.0
160 RB57 Alfred Morris DAL 27 158.57 495.80 3.8 15.0
161 WR63 Anquan Boldin DET 35 32.70 673.75 8.3 33.0
162 WR64 Davante Adams GB 23 41.54 661.25 6.8 20.5
163 TE22 Zach Miller CHI 31 100.06 617.30 5.4 21.5
164 TE23 Will Tye NYG 24 91.04 630.00 5.5 22.0
165 RB58 Shane Vereen NYG 27 132.58 532.50 7.3 29.0
166 RB59 Tim Hightower NO 30 135.76 528.00 2.4 9.5
167 QB21 Andy Dalton CIN 28 8.49 807.25 16.6 66.2
168 TE24 Charles Clay BUF 27 63.64 668.80 8.0 32.0
169 QB22 Robert Griffin III CLE 26 73.19 715.75 19.8 79.0
170 WR65 Jermaine Kearse SEA 26 68.94 622.50 8.8 35.0
171 WR66 Terrance Williams DAL 26 112.25 561.25 7.0 28.0
172 TE25 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 23 68.06 662.50 5.1 20.5
173 WR67 Braxton Miller HOU 23 74.25 615.00 8.8 35.0
174 WR68 Chris Hogan NE 27 117.56 553.75 4.1 16.5
175 RB60 Benny Cunningham LA 26 173.95 474.00 3.4 13.5
176 RB61 C.J. Prosise SEA 22 95.99 584.30 5.8 23.0
177 RB62 Tyler Ervin HOU 22 134.35 530.00 0.0 0.0
178 RB63 Dion Lewis NE 25 22.98 752.50 0.0 0.0
179 RB64 Darren McFadden DAL 29 142.31 518.80 7.8 15.5
180 QB23 Brock Osweiler HOU 25 74.42 714.00 20.6 82.4
181 WR69 Seth Roberts OAK 25 83.97 601.25 7.4 29.5
182 WR70 Terrelle Pryor CLE 27 84.85 600.00 9.4 37.5
183 WR71 Chris Conley KC 23 83.09 602.50 6.3 25.0
184 WR72 Breshad Perriman BAL 22 59.22 628.75 5.8 23.0
185 WR73 Josh Doctson WAS 23 53.03 645.00 5.3 21.0
186 QB24 Joe Flacco BAL 31 44.37 756.50 21.4 85.4
187 RB65 Charcandrick West KC 25 165.29 486.30 2.0 8.0
188 WR74 Sammie Coates PIT 23 7.95 708.75 0.9 3.5
189 TE26 Crockett Gillmore BAL 24 30.94 715.00 7.3 29.0
190 TE27 Dennis Pitta BAL 31 89.27 632.50 6.9 27.5
191 WR75 Jamison Crowder WAS 23 59.22 636.25 5.0 20.0
192 WR76 Laquon Treadwell MIN 21 10.61 705.00 7.5 30.0
193 WR77 Pierre Garcon WAS 30 58.34 637.50 5.4 21.5
194 QB25 Alex Smith KC 32 53.39 743.75 20.5 81.9
195 WR78 Dorial Green-Beckham PHI 23 65.41 627.50 5.0 15.0
196 WR79 Eddie Royal CHI 30 118.44 552.50 6.1 24.5
197 RB66 Paul Perkins NYG 21 114.37 558.30 2.0 8.0
198 WR80 Jaron Brown ARI 26 159.10 495.00 1.1 4.5
199 WR81 Quinton Patton SF 26 175.89 471.25 8.3 33.0
200 RB67 Khiry Robinson NYJ 26 145.84 513.80 2.5 10.0


Next: Non-PPR Big Board | PPR Big Board

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.