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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Target Shares - First Quarter Report
All Out Blitz: Volume 109
10/6/16

Considering the positive feedback I received from my preseason Targeting Greatness column, it only made sense to include it in the regular-season rotation. After all, if we can put a number on how well-connected a quarterback is with his receivers, running backs or tight ends a quarter of the way through the season, it only makes sense to use that tool.

As I said in the July column, target totals tell part of the story. They leave out a bit of context, however, especially when all the players from all 32 teams are lumped together. For instance, seven targets is a good number for a receiver to hit most weeks. On a day in which the quarterback drops back 55 times, it is much less impressive. This is where target shares are helpful.

Target shares refer to the percentage of the "target pie" a player receives on his own team. Ideally, target shares allow us to get a handle on just how much of a "go-to guy" a particular player is. Most of the time (at least during the preseason), target shares are utilized from a broader point of view, such as a half of a season or all 16 games. As I did in July, I want to look at it from a weekly perspective. I'm not trying to confirm Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. are great - no one needs me to tell them how dominant they are. I'm more interested in providing information that allows owners to make smarter trades and waiver-wire adds.

For the sake of keeping the chart as useful as possible, I have eliminated any non-receiver (quarterback, offensive lineman, etc.). Injured players are included to highlight how much of the "pie" teammates will have to pick up in their absence.

Note: You can sort each column as you wish. The numbers highlighted in green are weeks in which a player achieved at least a 30 percent target share. Blue numbers indicate a player finishing between 25-29.9 percent in that week.

** All target totals used in this piece courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

 Weekly Target Share Percentages - 2016
Pos Player Team 1 2 3 4
WR A.J. Green CIN 43.3% 14.8% 39.3% 38.7%
WR Allen Robinson JAC 38.5% 10.2% 28.9% 30.3%
WR Jordan Matthews PHI 37.8% 27.3% 9.7% bye
WR Jarvis Landry MIA 37.0% 29.5% 33.3% 40.0%
WR Tavon Austin LA 34.3% 31.0% 30.8% 20.0%
TE Jason Witten DAL 32.6% 13.3% 8.3% 28.1%
WR Kelvin Benjamin CAR 32.4% 19.6% 2.3% 13.2%
WR Kevin White CHI 31.8% 27.3% 36.8% 29.0%
WR Will Fuller HOU 31.4% 21.2% 17.5% 25.0%
WR Jeremy Kerley SF 31.4% 16.2% 24.0% 42.9%
WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 30.8% 24.2% 37.1% 41.9%
WR Amari Cooper OAK 29.7% 20.0% 25.7% 17.1%
WR Antonio Brown PIT 29.7% 29.7% 40.9% 18.5%
WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 28.6% 30.3% 24.0% 15.9%
WR Sammy Watkins BUF 28.6% 20.8% DNP DNP
WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 28.6% 26.8% 28.9% 20.0%
WR Cole Beasley DAL 27.9% 20.0% 29.2% 12.5%
WR Eddie Royal CHI 27.3% 27.3% 7.9% 22.6%
WR Jordy Nelson GB 27.3% 30.6% 29.2% bye
WR Stefon Diggs MIN 27.3% 35.5% 25.0% 19.4%
WR Marvin Jones DET 27.0% 28.2% 20.0% 19.4%
WR Terrelle Pryor CLE 26.9% 30.3% 36.8% 23.7%
WR Doug Baldwin SEA 26.8% 17.1% 33.3% 12.5%
WR Tajae Sharpe TEN 26.8% 21.9% 21.2% 25.0%
WR T.Y. Hilton IND 26.7% 28.2% 31.4% 25.0%
TE Jordan Reed WAS 25.6% 15.9% 20.0% 37.0%
WR Steve Smith BAL 25.0% 13.3% 27.5% 21.6%
TE Greg Olsen CAR 24.3% 17.4% 23.3% 24.5%
WR Michael Crabtree OAK 24.3% 11.1% 31.4% 34.3%
RB DeAngelo Williams PIT 24.3% 13.5% 15.9% 3.7%
WR Randall Cobb GB 24.2% 19.4% 12.5% bye
TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 24.2% 25.8% 35.7% 19.4%
WR Robert Woods BUF 23.8% 8.3% 30.8% 26.3%
WR DeSean Jackson WAS 23.3% 11.4% 22.9% 7.4%
WR Jamison Crowder WAS 23.3% 18.2% 20.0% 11.1%
WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 23.1% 21.2% 20.0% 22.6%
WR Brandin Cooks NO 23.1% 20.5% 14.8% 16.7%
WR Willie Snead NO 23.1% 18.2% DNP 2.8%
WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 22.9% 33.3% 20.0% 16.7%
WR Brandon Marshall NYJ 22.9% 23.1% 22.7% 30.0%
WR Quincy Enunwa NYJ 22.9% 15.4% 25.0% 17.5%
WR Travis Benjamin SD 22.2% 24.0% 18.9% 16.3%
RB James White NE 21.9% 11.4% 10.5% 18.5%
WR Julian Edelman NE 21.9% 28.6% 31.6% 14.8%
WR Davante Adams GB 21.2% 19.4% 8.3% bye
WR Mike Evans TB 21.2% 34.6% 25.0% 32.4%
WR Vincent Jackson TB 21.2% 17.3% 10.7% 14.7%
WR Michael Floyd ARI 20.0% 18.2% 22.0% 15.9%
TE Jacob Tamme ATL 20.0% 22.9% 13.3% 5.3%
WR Julio Jones ATL 20.0% 14.3% 23.3% 39.5%
WR Mohamed Sanu ATL 20.0% 14.3% 13.3% 7.9%
WR Eric Decker NYJ 20.0% 20.5% 13.6% DNP
RB Matt Forte NYJ 20.0% 7.7% 9.1% 7.5%
WR Tyler Lockett SEA 19.5% 11.4% 0.0% 9.4%
RB Danny Woodhead SD 19.4% 4.0% DNP DNP
WR Keenan Allen SD 19.4% DNP DNP DNP
WR Corey Coleman CLE 19.2% 24.2% DNP DNP
RB Duke Johnson CLE 19.2% 15.2% 18.4% 21.1%
RB C.J. Anderson DEN 19.2% 15.2% 11.4% 3.2%
TE Virgil Green DEN 19.2% 9.1% DNP DNP
RB LeSean McCoy BUF 19.0% 20.8% 15.4% 15.8%
WR Golden Tate DET 18.9% 23.1% 15.0% 11.1%
TE Zach Ertz PHI 18.9% DNP DNP bye
WR Eli Rogers PIT 18.9% 8.1% 11.4% DNP
TE Jesse James PIT 18.9% 13.5% 9.1% 7.4%
WR Mike Wallace BAL 18.8% 13.3% 15.0% 19.6%
RB Arian Foster MIA 18.5% DNP DNP DNP
WR Kenny Stills MIA 18.5% 9.1% 22.2% 12.0%
RB Jeremy Langford CHI 18.2% 9.1% 7.9% DNP
TE Zach Miller CHI 18.2% 22.7% 23.7% 9.7%
WR Charles Johnson MIN 18.2% 6.5% 7.1% 11.1%
RB Travaris Cadet NO 17.9% 6.8% 11.1% 0.0%
RB Shane Vereen NYG 17.9% 7.3% 13.2% DNP
RB Spencer Ware KC 17.8% 8.1% 3.0% 10.2%
RB David Johnson ARI 17.1% 15.2% 12.0% 9.1%
WR Kenny Britt LA 17.1% 34.5% 23.1% 13.3%
WR Torrey Smith SF 17.1% 27.0% 16.0% 9.5%
WR Jermaine Kearse SEA 17.1% 17.1% 6.7% 9.4%
WR Andre Johnson TEN 17.1% 3.1% 9.1% 17.9%
RB DeMarco Murray TEN 17.1% 21.9% 15.2% 7.1%
TE C.J. Uzomah CIN 16.7% 14.8% 14.3% 16.1%
WR Alshon Jeffery CHI 16.2% 15.2% 16.3% 9.4%
WR Malcolm Mitchell NE 15.6% 5.7% 10.5% 0.0%
TE Martellus Bennett NE 15.6% 17.1% 15.8% 22.2%
WR Donte Moncrief IND 15.6% 7.7% DNP DNP
WR Chris Conley KC 15.6% 10.8% 15.2% 14.3%
WR Jeremy Maclin KC 15.6% 40.5% 21.2% 16.3%
TE Travis Kelce KC 15.6% 18.9% 21.2% 16.3%
RB T.J. Yeldon JAC 15.4% 18.4% 7.9% 15.2%
WR Michael Thomas NO 15.4% 11.4% 20.4% 25.0%
WR Adam Thielen MIN 15.2% 16.1% 14.3% 8.3%
WR Adam Humphries TB 15.2% 15.4% 21.4% 11.8%
RB Doug Martin TB 15.2% 0.0% DNP DNP
RB Tevin Coleman ATL 15.0% 5.7% 10.0% 10.5%
TE Charles Clay BUF 14.3% 29.2% 7.7% 18.4%
WR Brian Quick LA 14.3% 3.4% 7.7% 20.0%
WR Sterling Shepard NYG 14.3% 19.5% 18.4% 15.6%
WR Victor Cruz NYG 14.3% 19.5% 7.9% 20.0%
WR Quinton Patton SF 14.3% 16.2% 16.0% 14.3%
WR Pierre Garcon WAS 14.0% 15.9% 20.0% 18.5%
WR Tyrell Williams SD 13.9% 24.0% 24.3% 18.6%
RB Ameer Abdullah DET 13.5% DNP DNP DNP
TE Eric Ebron DET 13.5% 17.9% 20.0% 13.9%
RB Theo Riddick DET 13.5% 12.8% 22.5% 19.4%
TE Clive Walford OAK 13.5% 15.6% 8.6% 11.4%
RB Darren Sproles PHI 13.5% 6.1% 19.4% bye
WR Nelson Agholor PHI 13.5% 21.2% 9.7% bye
WR Brandon LaFell CIN 13.3% 14.8% 10.7% 19.4%
RB Giovani Bernard CIN 13.3% 20.4% 17.9% 12.9%
TE Dwayne Allen IND 13.3% 10.3% 14.3% 10.0%
RB Frank Gore IND 13.3% 7.7% 8.6% 15.0%
WR Phillip Dorsett IND 13.3% 12.8% 11.4% 7.5%
RB Charcandrick West KC 13.3% 5.4% 9.1% DNP
WR Allen Hurns JAC 12.8% 20.4% 21.1% 12.1%
TE Julius Thomas JAC 12.8% 14.3% 13.2% DNP
TE Dennis Pitta BAL 12.5% 26.7% 20.0% 9.8%
WR Chris Hogan NE 12.5% 17.1% 15.8% 7.4%
WR Danny Amendola NE 12.5% 11.4% 10.5% 7.4%
TE Delanie Walker TEN 12.2% 18.8% DNP 28.6%
WR Harry Douglas TEN 12.2% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0%
WR Dez Bryant DAL 11.6% 40.0% 25.0% DNP
WR Andrew Hawkins CLE 11.5% 9.1% 10.5% 7.9%
TE Jermaine Gresham ARI 11.4% 3.0% 2.0% 2.3%
WR John Brown ARI 11.4% 9.1% 22.0% 36.4%
RB Lamar Miller HOU 11.4% 6.1% 12.5% 8.3%
TE Tyler Higbee LA 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3%
RB Bilal Powell NYJ 11.4% 5.1% 13.6% 22.5%
TE Garrett Celek SF 11.4% 5.4% 16.0% 23.8%
WR Albert Wilson KC 11.1% 8.1% 0.0% 16.3%
TE Jordan Cameron MIA 11.1% 15.9% 2.8% DNP
TE Antonio Gates SD 11.1% 20.0% DNP DNP
WR Devin Funchess CAR 10.8% 8.7% 4.7% 5.7%
WR Seth Roberts OAK 10.8% 13.3% 17.1% 8.6%
TE Will Tye NYG 10.7% 7.3% 13.2% 13.3%
WR Marqise Lee JAC 10.3% 14.3% 18.4% 18.2%
TE Coby Fleener NO 10.3% 18.2% 20.4% 13.9%
RB Devonta Freeman ATL 10.0% 0.0% 16.7% 7.9%
WR Tyler Boyd CIN 10.0% 14.8% 14.3% 9.7%
RB Christine Michael SEA 9.8% 11.4% 10.0% 18.8%
TE Luke Willson SEA 9.8% 2.9% 10.0% 9.4%
WR Rishard Matthews TEN 9.8% 18.8% 24.2% 7.1%
RB Kyle Juszczyk BAL 9.4% 4.4% 2.5% 13.7%
WR Terrance Williams DAL 9.3% 0.0% 16.7% 18.8%
TE Richard Rodgers GB 9.1% 5.6% 12.5% bye
TE Cameron Brate TB 9.1% 7.7% 17.9% 23.5%
RB Charles Sims TB 9.1% 9.6% 14.3% 8.8%
TE Jack Doyle IND 8.9% 12.8% 17.1% 2.5%
WR Braxton Miller HOU 8.6% 9.1% DNP DNP
TE Stephen Anderson HOU 8.6% 9.1% 2.5% DNP
TE Lance Kendricks LA 8.6% 20.7% 15.4% 23.3%
RB Todd Gurley LA 8.6% 3.4% 7.7% 16.7%
RB Carlos Hyde SF 8.6% 8.1% 4.0% 4.8%
TE Vance McDonald SF 8.6% 5.4% 8.0% DNP
WR Dontrelle Inman SD 8.3% 12.0% 10.8% 25.6%
WR Anquan Boldin DET 8.1% 17.9% 15.0% 22.2%
WR Josh Huff PHI 8.1% 3.0% 16.1% bye
WR Sammie Coates PIT 8.1% 13.5% 9.1% 29.6%
TE Gary Barnidge CLE 7.7% 15.2% 15.8% 18.4%
RB Isaiah Crowell CLE 7.7% 3.0% 2.6% 10.5%
RB Malcolm Johnson CLE 7.7% 0.0% 2.6% 2.6%
RB Damien Williams MIA 7.4% 0.0% 8.3% 8.0%
WR Leonte Carroo MIA 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%
RB Thomas Rawls SEA 7.3% 8.6% DNP DNP
TE Larry Donnell NYG 7.1% 12.2% 10.5% 0.0%
RB Rashad Jennings NYG 7.1% 4.9% DNP DNP
TE Demetrius Harris KC 6.7% 2.7% 9.1% 2.0%
WR Breshad Perriman BAL 6.3% 11.1% 10.0% 9.8%
WR Chris Moore BAL 6.3% 4.4% 2.5% 7.8%
RB Justin Forsett BAL 6.3% 11.1% 17.5% DNP
WR Kamar Aiken BAL 6.3% 2.2% 2.5% 7.8%
RB Terrance West BAL 6.3% 6.7% 2.5% 0.0%
RB Eddie Lacy GB 6.1% 2.8% 8.3% bye
TE Jared Cook GB 6.1% 16.7% 12.5% bye
RB Adrian Peterson MIN 6.1% 9.7% DNP DNP
RB Jerick McKinnon MIN 6.1% 3.2% 7.1% 13.9%
WR Jaron Brown ARI 5.7% 6.1% 12.0% 11.4%
WR J.J. Nelson ARI 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3%
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU 5.7% 3.0% 2.5% 13.9%
TE Ryan Griffin HOU 5.7% 6.1% 25.0% 13.9%
RB Tyler Ervin HOU 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Shaun Draughn SF 5.7% 2.7% 8.0% 4.8%
TE Hunter Henry SD 5.6% 0.0% 13.5% 16.3%
WR Philly Brown CAR 5.4% 13.0% 11.6% 13.2%
RB Jalen Richard OAK 5.4% 2.2% 2.9% 8.6%
RB Latavius Murray OAK 5.4% 13.3% 2.9% 5.7%
RB Taiwan Jones OAK 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Dorial Green-Beckham PHI 5.4% 12.1% 12.9% bye
TE Marcedes Lewis JAC 5.1% 6.1% 7.9% 6.1%
WR Rashad Greene JAC 5.1% 6.1% 0.0% 3.0%
RB Mark Ingram NO 5.1% 9.1% 11.1% 19.4%
RB Andre Ellington ATL 5.0% 2.9% 0.0% 2.6%
WR Justin Hardy ATL 5.0% 8.6% 6.7% 0.0%
WR Paul Richardson SEA 4.9% 17.1% 0.0% 3.1%
RB Derrick Henry TEN 4.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Mike Gillislee BUF 4.8% 0.0% 3.8% 5.3%
TE Nick O'Leary BUF 4.8% 0.0% 3.8% 5.3%
RB Reggie Bush BUF 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Brice Butler DAL 4.7% 3.3% 4.2% 28.1%
RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 4.7% 3.3% 8.3% 3.1%
RB Lance Dunbar DAL 4.7% 6.7% 0.0% 6.3%
RB Chris Thompson WAS 4.7% 9.1% 5.7% 14.8%
TE Logan Paulsen CHI 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7%
RB Josh Ferguson IND 4.4% 12.8% 11.4% 25.0%
RB Robert Turbin IND 4.4% 2.6% 0.0% 7.5%
WR Jordan Norwood DEN 3.8% 12.1% 5.7% 6.5%
RB Kapri Bibbs DEN 3.8% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WR James Wright CIN 3.3% 1.9% 3.6% 0.0%
TE Crockett Gillmore BAL 3.1% 6.7% 0.0% 3.9%
RB James Starks GB 3.0% 2.8% 8.3% bye
WR Jared Abbrederis GB 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% bye
WR Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 3.0% 0.0% 3.6% 16.7%
TE Alan Cross TB 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 3.0% 3.8% DNP DNP
TE Brandon Myers TB 3.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0%
RB Benny Cunningham LA 2.9% 6.9% 3.8% 0.0%
RB Malcolm Brown LA 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Greg Salas NYJ 2.9% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Aaron Burbridge SF 2.9% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Fozzy Whittaker CAR 2.7% 8.7% 14.0% 17.0%
RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 2.7% 4.3% DNP DNP
RB Mike Tolbert CAR 2.7% 2.2% 7.0% 1.9%
WR Ted Ginn Jr. CAR 2.7% 8.7% 16.3% 9.4%
WR Andre Roberts DET 2.7% 0.0% 2.5% 2.8%
TE Cole Wick DET 2.7% 0.0% 2.5% 2.8%
WR Andre Holmes OAK 2.7% 6.7% 2.9% 0.0%
RB DeAndre Washington OAK 2.7% 2.2% 2.9% 8.6%
TE Brent Celek PHI 2.7% 3.0% 12.9% bye
RB John Kuhn NO 2.6% 4.5% 0.0% 5.6%
RB Tim Hightower NO 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TE Austin Hooper ATL 2.5% 8.6% 0.0% 2.6%
RB Patrick DiMarco ATL 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3%
RB C.J. Prosise SEA 2.4% DNP DNP DNP
TE Jimmy Graham SEA 2.4% 11.4% 30.0% 25.0%
RB Alfred Morris DAL 2.3% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0%
TE Geoff Swaim DAL 2.3% 6.7% 4.2% 0.0%
WR Josh Doctson WAS 2.3% 11.4% DNP DNP
RB Matt Jones WAS 2.3% 2.3% 5.7% 7.4%
WR Ryan Grant WAS 2.3% 2.3% 2.9% 0.0%
TE Vernon Davis WAS 2.3% 11.4% 0.0% 3.7%
TE Ross Travis KC 2.2% 0.0% 6.1% 2.0%
WR Tyreek Hill KC 2.2% 5.4% 12.1% 14.3%
RB Chris Johnson ARI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3%
TE Darren Fells ARI 0.0% 15.2% 4.0% 4.5%
TE Troy Niklas ARI 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0%
WR Aldrick Robinson ATL 0.0% 11.4% 6.7% 7.9%
TE Levine Toilolo ATL 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 2.6%
WR Taylor Gabriel ATL 0.0% 5.7% 10.0% 7.9%
RB Javorius Allen BAL DNP DNP DNP 5.9%
RB Jerome Felton BUF DNP DNP DNP 2.6%
WR Marquise Goodwin BUF 0.0% 20.8% 19.2% 13.2%
WR Walter Powell BUF 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 13.2%
RB Cameron Artis-Payne CAR 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0%
TE Ed Dickson CAR 0.0% 2.2% 2.3% 3.8%
WR Joe Webb CAR 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%
WR Cameron Meredith CHI 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 16.1%
RB Jordan Howard CHI 0.0% 9.1% 15.8% 12.9%
RB Ka'Deem Carey CHI 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Alex Erickson CIN 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Jeremy Hill CIN 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% 3.2%
TE Tyler Kroft CIN 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%
TE Randall Telfer CLE 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6%
WR Rashard Higgins CLE 0.0% 3.0% 2.6% 0.0%
WR Ricardo Louis CLE 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 13.2%
RB Keith Smith DAL 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 3.1%
RB Andy Janovich DEN 0.0% 3.0% 2.9% 0.0%
WR Bennie Fowler DEN 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 9.7%
WR Cody Latimer DEN 0.0% 6.1% 2.9% 6.5%
RB Devontae Booker DEN 0.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2%
TE Jeff Heuerman DEN 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 3.2%
TE John Phillips DEN 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0%
WR Jordan Taylor DEN 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.2%
RB Dwayne Washington DET 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2.8%
TE Khari Lee DET 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%
RB Zach Zenner DET 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%
TE Justin Perillo GB 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% bye
WR Trevor Davis GB 0.0% 2.8% 4.2% bye
RB Alfred Blue HOU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%
WR Jaelen Strong HOU 0.0% 3.0% 10.0% 16.7%
RB Jay Prosch HOU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%
RB Jonathan Grimes HOU 0.0% 9.1% 10.0% 0.0%
WR Chester Rogers IND 0.0% 2.6% 5.7% 7.5%
WR Quan Bray IND 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Arrelious Benn JAC 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 6.1%
WR Bryan Walters JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
RB Chris Ivory JAC 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 3.0%
RB Corey Grant JAC 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Denard Robinson JAC 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
TE Neal Sterling JAC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
RB Anthony Sherman KC 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0%
RB Jamaal Charles KC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0%
RB Knile Davis KC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1%
WR Bradley Marquez LA 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 3.3%
WR Mike Thomas LA 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0%
WR DeVante Parker MIA 0.0% 29.5% 16.7% 12.0%
TE Dion Sims MIA 0.0% 2.3% 11.1% 8.0%
RB Isaiah Pead MIA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%
RB Jay Ajayi MIA 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 8.0%
RB Kenyan Drake MIA 0.0% 4.5% 5.6% 0.0%
TE MarQueis Gray MIA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%
RB Matt Asiata MIN 0.0% 3.2% 3.6% 5.6%
TE MyCole Pruitt MIN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8%
TE Rhett Ellison MIN 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 2.8%
RB Brandon Bolden NE 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1%
RB D.J. Foster NE 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
RB LeGarrette Blount NE 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1%
WR Matt Slater NE 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
TE Rob Gronkowski NE 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 7.4%
WR Brandon Coleman NO 0.0% 9.1% 14.8% 8.3%
RB Daniel Lasco NO 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6%
WR Tommylee Lewis NO 0.0% 2.3% 7.4% 2.8%
RB Bobby Rainey NYG 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 20.0%
RB Orleans Darkwa NYG 0.0% 2.4% 2.6% 4.4%
RB Paul Perkins NYG 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7%
TE Brandon Bostick NYJ 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Charone Peake NYJ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5%
WR Jalin Marshall NYJ 0.0% 10.3% 11.4% 0.0%
TE Kellen Davis NYJ 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Robby Anderson NYJ 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 15.0%
RB Jamize Olawale OAK 0.0% 4.4% 2.9% 0.0%
WR Johnny Holton OAK 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
TE Lee Smith OAK 0.0% 8.9% 2.9% 2.9%
TE Mychal Rivera OAK 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
RB Ryan Mathews PHI 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% bye
TE Trey Burton PHI 0.0% 21.2% 19.4% bye
RB Wendell Smallwood PHI 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% bye
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey PIT 0.0% 5.4% 2.3% 3.7%
TE David Johnson PIT 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 3.7%
RB Fitzgerald Toussaint PIT 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Le'Veon Bell PIT 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2%
WR Markus Wheaton PIT 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 3.7%
TE Xavier Grimble PIT 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 7.4%
RB Derek Watt SD 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0%
RB Dexter McCluster SD 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 7.0%
RB Kenneth Farrow SD 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Melvin Gordon SD 0.0% 12.0% 18.9% 16.3%
TE Sean McGrath SD 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0%
RB Alex Collins SEA 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0%
RB C.J. Spiller SEA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4%
WR Tanner McEvoy SEA 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 3.1%
RB Will Tukuafu SEA 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
TE Blake Bell SF 0.0% 5.4% 4.0% 0.0%
RB Mike Davis SF 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Rod Streater SF 0.0% 5.4% 4.0% 0.0%
WR Cecil Shorts TB 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
WR Freddie Martino TB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
RB Jacquizz Rodgers TB 0.0% 1.9% 1.8% 5.9%
WR Russell Shepard TB 0.0% 3.8% 3.6% 0.0%
TE Anthony Fasano TEN 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 3.6%
TE Jace Amaro TEN 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0%
RB Jalston Fowler TEN 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0%
WR Kendall Wright TEN 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7%
TE Phillip Supernaw TEN 0.0% 3.1% 3.0% 0.0%
TE Niles Paul WAS 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Unexpected findings

Most of us knew that A.J. Green was set up for a huge percentage of the targets in Cincinnati this year, at least as long as Tyler Eifert was sidelined. It's safe to say his owners have not felt neglected in that regard, as Green as enjoyed a target share of at least 38.7 percent in three of his four games. Generally speaking, 30 percent is an elite target rate, so Green commanding nearly 40 percent is incredible. With Eifert likely sidelined at least one more week as a result of a back issue, Green should be in line for two or three more weeks of otherworldly target shares. Suffice it to say Green should expect pretty substantial regression around midseason assuming Eifert can return and actually stay on the field, so it may not be a bad idea for Green's owners to see if he be included in a trade to get Antonio Brown. Green is going to remain a target monster regardless - like we expected - so owners are certainly justified in holding on to him as well. Just don't expect him to continue receiving 38.7 percent of his team's targets every week.

Three players have enjoyed a target share of at least 25 percent in every game so far this season: The first two aren't terribly surprising: T.Y. Hilton and Jarvis Landry, the latter of which had 12 such games last season. Landry's floor is ridiculously in PPR leagues despite a relative lack of touchdowns, but we already knew that. Hilton is already one such game shy of matching his 2015 output, but the loss of Donte Moncrief has something to do with that. And let's not forget Andrew Luck missed almost half of last season, which is another huge contributing factor.

The second might come as a shock: Kevin White. Considering White just went on IR this week, this has huge implications for fantasy owners. Alshon Jeffery hasn't eclipsed seven targets or a 16.3 percent share yet this season, so he seems likely to see at least a five percent bump going forward. (He was over 25 percent in seven of nine games last year, albeit under a different offensive coordinator.) The player most likely to benefit - and we saw a glimpse of this last week - is Eddie Royal, who shockingly already has three games with a target share of higher than 22.3 percent. (Again, Jeffery has no such efforts yet.) Now before we get too crazy on Royal, please understand the Bears have yet to accumulate 40 "true targets" in a game yet, so Royal has yet to exceed the seven targets he managed last week. With that said, Royal will be the natural choice to replace White as a starter and a pretty good bet to exceed the 52.8 percent catch rate White had on his 36 targets this season (Royal has caught 81.8 percent of his targets through four games).

Jordy Nelson has enjoyed no less than a 27.3 percent target share thus far, which is roughly on the same pace he was on during his monstrous 2014 season and pretty incredible considering he did not play in the preseason and was limited throughout camp. The biggest difference between pre-ACL injury and now? Nelson is averaging 12.1 YPC, which is more than three yards per catch lower than any mark he has posted since 2010. We started seeing a little bit more of his big-play ability in Week 3 against Detroit, but the whole offense is still in a bit of a funk. (Aaron Rodgers is completing a career-low - at least since he became a full-time starter - 58.5 percent of his passes, has yet to attempt more than 36 throws or pass for more than 213 yards.) What does it mean? I believe it could mean several things, including the possibility Green Bay is starting to buy into more of a small-ball mentality on offense. (It is a possibility, although I'm not ready to buy into it quite yet. The sample size is very small as well.) One observation I feel safe in making is that Nelson is playing at his ceiling given the current environment, and I tend to believe the Packers have made a conscious effort to feed him the ball early in order to open up the rest of the passing game going forward.

While Will Fuller is shaping up to be the late-round steal owners love to brag about, DeAndre Hopkins hasn't come close to returning the value owners believed he had when they spent a mid-first round pick on him this summer. Last year, Hopkins had 12 games in which he at least a 25-percent target share and nine with at least 30 percent. Although it was unrealistic to expect a repeat given Houston's investment into the wide receiver position during the draft this spring, I'm fairly certain owners weren't expecting three games of eight or fewer targets through one quarter of the season from "Nuk". There's no doubt defenses are still in the mode of making someone else besides Hopkins beat them, but I'm not sure owners are going to get the kind of market correction they are hoping for.

Doug Baldwin is off to a fast start after his career year in 2015 or is he? The numbers say he's averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game, which is better than last year's 16.8. However, through a quarter of the season, he's seen a target share below 18 percent twice and over 26 percent twice. Over 79 percent of his fantasy points and 67.7 percent of his targets have come in two games, meaning he's been a WR1 in half of his games (both at home) and a WR4 in the other two (both on the road). It's way too early and much too small of a sample size to suggest Baldwin is going to be a home/road receiver or if his early tendency to follow a big game with a dud is going to be a trend, but the fact of the matter is Seattle's passing-game schedule has been pretty favorable so far, so owners might want to pay special attention to him over the next two weeks. If Jimmy Graham continues to shine like he has recently, it might be wise to sell high on Baldwin after another big game.

Jeremy Kerley has run 115 routes this season and been targeted on 32 of them. Perhaps more surprisingly, he has seen at least 30 percent of his team's targets in half of their games so far, which is not surprising when you consider the rest of the roster and amazing when you really understand what it means when one player is receiving nearly a third of his team's targets. Relatively speaking, "average" players rarely go over 30 percent target share in a game once in a season - much less twice in a month - so when a player does reach that mark, he is going to be fantasy-relevant almost regardless of how average his quarterback might be. Torrey Smith and Quinton Patton aren't going to miraculously evolve into quality short and intermediate targets and Blaine Gabbert isn't going to turn into a deep-ball thrower, meaning about the only thing that will keep Kerley from performing at a WR3 level going forward is just how much Vance McDonald and Garrett Celek get involved.

Trending Upward

John Brown scared all of us just a bit when he was slow to recover from his concussion in late July, but he could be making up for lost time. After combining for seven targets over the first two weeks on a limited snap count, "Smokey" has totaled 27 targets over his last two. He had a 22 percent snap target share in Week 3 and a highly impressive 36.4 percent mark in a four-point loss in Week 4. I'm not here to suggest to 16 targets or that astronomical target share is going to become a common occurrence, but I think we should expect Brown and Larry Fitzgerald to lead the Cardinals in target-share percentage on a regular basis going forward. Brown is a borderline WR3 with Drew Stanton at the controls but has WR2 upside if Carson Palmer shows any hint of recapturing his 2015 form at some point this season.

Fantasy football rarely ever makes perfect sense and Oakland's offense is an example of that. HC Jack Del Rio was either completely untruthful about his plans for the backfield in the preseason or could care less about alienating his best running back. OC Bill Musgrave isn't doing much better, perhaps trying to shed his reputation as an ultraconservative play-caller by allowing Derek Carr to air it out 40 times per game. I have no problem with him doing that given the talent on the team, but the use of Amari Cooper as primarily a big-play receiver and Michael Crabtree as the primary red-zone option - and Seth Roberts as the second option - is baffling to me. Let's give credit where credit is due: Crabtree is as trusty as they come, but it is hard to defend his seeing 30-plus percent of the team's target share when Cooper is struggling to get over 25 percent. Perhaps this is a Carr problem and not a Musgrave problem, but given the chaos in the backfield and Musgrave's history, I'm more inclined to believe it's the latter. Perhaps after receiving only nine red-zone targets through 20 games as a Raider, we should conclude Cooper is going to be an afterthought inside the 20 until further notice. So while we cannot definitively say that Cooper is not the No. 1 receiver in Oakland, we also cannot say that Crabtree is the No. 2. With at least seven catches and nine targets in three of his first four games, Crabtree is probably here to stay again.

(Shockingly, I'm not a Cooper owner, so this wasn't a rant about a second-round receiver I want to do better than WR32 after four weeks.)

Do you remember the time when Buffalo only had one receiver worth caring about? It's still the case, but just not the one we all expected it to be a month ago. Robert Woods has been written off roughly as often by his own coaching staff as he has by fantasy owners, yet here we are. Since Sammy Watkins was placed on IR before Week 3, Woods has seen at least a quarter of the Bills' targets in both games against rather high-quality competition. He has converted 13 of the 18 targets he's seen over that time into catches, so he's not really giving Tyrod Taylor much of a reason to look for other options. With the perpetually banged-up Charles Clay, Greg Salas, Marquise Goodwin and Walter Powell serving as his stiffest competition for targets - aside from LeSean McCoy - there's really no reason to expect Wood's target share to decrease anytime soon.

Others trending in the right direction: Steve Smith, Jimmy Graham, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon Marshall, Terrelle Pryor, Michael Thomas, Bilal Powell

Trending Downward

Whereas Greg Olsen has been very steady, the combined target share percentages for Kelvin Benjamin over the last three weeks barely exceed his Week 1 output. What is most interesting here is that Benjamin enjoyed one of his finer games against Denver (at least in the first half), so the typical "the matchup was too tough" line of thinking may not applicable here. As we saw on Monday night versus the Giants, Minnesota has been very stingy against receivers, which explains Benjamin's goose egg in Week 3. Desmond Trufant has emerged as one of the better corners in the league, so it shouldn't have been a shock to see KB have another slow day last week. The upside here is Benjamin is still scoring touchdowns and probably will continue to do so at a fairly high rate. The matchups are going to get easier, so don't let a pair of somewhat lackluster performances change your opinion of him. If an owner in your league has a different view, don't be afraid to test his market.

Tavon Austin has come under some fire for his ridiculously low 4.5 yards per target as well as his 45.7 percent catch rate - both of which are abysmal considering his talent (especially for the former) and how often he is targeted at or behind the line of scrimmage (especially for the latter) - and he isn't helping his case with a league-high four drops. However, those drops really are only a small part of the problem with his relative lack of production. Last week marked the first time this season Austin saw fewer than 30 percent of his team's targets, which means owners need to hang on to him in hopes No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff can eventually enjoy the same kind of success other rookies quarterbacks have enjoyed around the league so far. The Rams' success to this point is a double-edged sword for Austin, however, as they have no reason to move away from Case Keenum when they are winning 75 percent of their games. Conversely, Austin probably has no shot of maximizing his mammoth target share with Keenum under center.

The Tajae Sharpe we thought we knew a month ago really hasn't changed, but the situation has. His target share has held steady - between 21.2 and 26.8 percent - but Marcus Mariota is struggling. Sure, HC Mike Mularkey called out Sharpe a bit after a Week 3 loss, but the rookie has seen at least seven targets in every game, which is enough for most receivers to maintain WR3 value. The problem is his catch rate is currently at 50 percent after going 7-for-11 in the opener and DeMarco Murray is monopolizing all of the Titans' scoring opportunities. It's almost unheard of in this day and age for a running back to see more red-zone targets and have more catches than the team's top receiver, but such is the case in Tennessee. Until Mariota picks up his play and/or the Titans learn that one-score losses do not count as victories, we can't expect much to change.

Others trending in the wrong direction (although panic is not warranted in most of the cases): Jeremy Maclin, Travis Benjamin, Matt Forte, Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Golden Tate, Philip Dorsett



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.